Notre Dame has been playing football since 1887. Virginia Tech has been playing football since 1892. This Saturday, the Fighting Irish and Hokies will meet on the gridiron for the very first time.

It’s been a fairly successful 2016 for Virginia Tech as they are in year one of the post-Frank Beamer era. They put together winning streaks of 3 games twice already this season and sit at a respectable 26th overall in the F/+ rankings.

Virginia Tech (+1) at Notre Dame

Notre Dame Stadium
South Bend, Indiana
Date: Saturday, November 19, 2016
Kickoff: 3:30 PM ET
Television: NBC
Series: First Meeting

Unfortunately, the Hokies come to South Bend without much momentum following a lackluster win over Duke and a disappointing loss to Georgia Tech in recent weeks. They will still probably end up taking care of business with a home date versus Virginia to close out the season but the Hokies could’ve sewn up the ACC Coastal division with a win last weekend.

3 Matchups to Watch

Bud Foster vs. the Irish Offense

The Hokies defensive coordinator is 57 years old and has been coaching in Blacksburg since he was 28 years old. Imagine if Mike Sanford began coaching at Notre Dame in 2011 and was still in South Bend in 2040, for example. It was a small coup when new head coach Justin Fuente was able to keep the long-time DC around after Frank Beamer retired.

It’s another typical stout Foster-led defense, of course. The Hokies rank 14th in S&P+ defense and a little more modest 30th in FEI defense. The former ranking is the best the Irish have faced so far this season. As per usual, Virginia Tech is all about wrecking things in the backfield (82 TFL, 6th nationally) and they’re pretty good (33rd nationally) at preventing touchdowns in the red zone, too.

Evans vs. Kizer

Jerod Evans (2,519 passing, 608 rushing, 28 total TD) and DeShone Kizer (2,470 passing, 440 rushing, 29 total TD) have very similar stats, very similar size, and are both massively important to their offenses moving the ball with consistency. The Hokies knew that Evans–the top JUCO quarterback for 2016–was going to be special if he could grab the offense quickly and it’s paid off handsomely so far in 2016.

evans

Evans has been overshadowed a little bit in the loaded ACC quarterback hype but he’s been stellar at times this year. We saw Kizer severely out play another hyped ACC quarterback in Brad Kaaya a few weeks ago and he’ll have to do it again versus someone having better year and who has really good wheels, too.

Tech’s Trio of Receivers vs. Notre Dame’s Surging Secondary 

Due to Virginia Tech’s reliance on Evans’ athleticism naturally their run game is very similar to Notre Dame’s ground attack. They have a little more rushing yards but a little less on a per carry basis. The Hokies main running back Travon McMillan has put together two very good games against Tennessee and Miami (258 rushing yards) but has only gained 308 yards in their other 8 games.

It’ll be the Irish secondary that faces a stiff challenge against Isaiah Ford (58 receptions, 795 yards, 7 TD) the best receiver you’ve probably never heard of this year. Cam Phillips (46 receptions) is also no slouch in the pass game while Bucky Hodges is pound-for-pound the best tight end in the country with 36 receptions and 5 touchdowns. Nearly the entire Virginia Tech passing game runs through these 3 which is easy to zero in on but they’ve been super productive anyway.

2 Sides of the Line

The Hokies brought back 4 starters from last year, 3 of whom have started every game in 2016: Junior center Eric Gallo (6-2, 295), 5th-year senior right guard Augie Conte (6-6, 305), and senior Jonathan McLaughlin (6-5, 294) who slides over from left to right tackle.

Redshirt junior Wyatt Teller (6-5, 308) made 12 starts last year but was demoted to a backup role to start the season. Since the third game he’s been back with the starters at left guard. Virginia Tech has started redshirt freshman Yosuah Nijman (6-7, 300) all season at left tackle.

This line is considered to be decent but inconsistent. They’ve given up 22 sacks which is kind of bad and can really struggle to establish the ground game with their running backs.

Senior Woody Baron (6-2, 280) is the lightening quick leader of the Hokies defensive line from the tackle position. He’s made an impressive 32 solo tackles and he’s tied for 6th nationally with 16 tackles for loss. He’s shared the interior for most of the season with 5th-year senior Nigel Williams (6-2, 297) who has a modest 10 tackles and 2 TFL while being banged up and not a factor over the past 4 games. In his place, Tech has turned to junior Ricky Walker (6-2, 282) who’s played well with 24 tackles, 5.5 TFL, and 4 PBU’s.

On the edge, redshirt sophomore Vinny Mihota (6-5, 264) has started every game and has totaled 39 tackles, 7 TFL, and 2 sacks. Last fall’s only returning full-time starter 5th-year senior Ken Ekanem (6-3, 260) has missed a game with injury but has put up 4.5 sacks so far. In his absence, Virginia Tech turned to redshirt Trevon Hill (6-3, 240) who has been given plenty of playing time with 26 tackles and 4.5 TFL.

Redshirt freshman Tim Settle (6-3, 328) is the highest rated recruit on the defense and also sees significant snaps with 13 tackles and 3.5 TFL. This is a good line, sometimes a very good line, but there isn’t a ton of depth like some of Foster’s very best defenses.

1 Prediction

Virginia Tech has had an interesting season floating in between the lower end of the Top 25 rankings and in the upper echelon of the “votes received” teams. They’ve put together some nice wins over North Carolina, Miami, and Pitt while generally being well regarded nationally in Fuente’s first season.

Additionally, the advanced stats point to a really good team as Mike will break down further on Friday. However, to date the Hokies haven’t played a currently ranked team. They did out-gain Tennessee but turned the ball over 5 times and lost by 3 touchdowns. Losses to Syracuse and Georgia Tech were particularly troubling, especially the latter which possibly will prevent the Hokies from winning their last 6 games and place themselves in contention for a New Year’s 6 bowl.

Turnovers have been a bugaboo this year. In two of Virginia Tech’s losses they’re -7 in turnover ratio and they’ve lost a total of 14 fumbles–second most in the country. Interestingly, Louisville leads the country with 17 fumbles lost. Imagine what the Cardinals could’ve done with half of those fumbles back!

I’m not sure Notre Dame can count on fumbles, though. The Irish have only recovered 7 fumbles in 10 games and if you’re looking for interceptions that’s unlikely from Evans who has 4 picks on 298 pass attempts–one of the best TD:INT ratios in the country.

In terms of psychology we have an interesting matchup. The Hokies are likely considerably grumpy after their loss last weekend but this game doesn’t hold much meaning for them. In a weird twist of fate for an independent it’s the terrible Notre Dame season that gives the Irish something (a bowl game!) worth fighting for while the conference team only needs to win next weekend to still have a chance to win the ACC.

Oh yeah, and the weather is going to suck.

weathervt

There’s nothing about this game that is screaming Virginia Tech is going to come out with a bunch of passion and be completely focused. It’s also Senior Day for Notre Dame which should add a little more push to finish strong at home inside the last game of the stadium before Crossroads opens up officially next September.

In a season that hasn’t made a whole lot of sense it’s been enormously difficult to predict what kind of performance we’re going to see in Notre Dame’s games. However, I’m feeling a really strong effort from the Irish on Saturday.

Nevertheless, the combination of a Bud Foster defense and a good passing offense with an athletic dual-threat quarterback is a lot for this Notre Dame to deal with at this point. There just aren’t enough weaknesses on this Virginia Tech team for the Irish to overcome a quarterback just as productive as Kizer paired with one of the game’s best defensive coordinators.

Notre Dame 27

Virginia Tech 29