This past Thursday news of USC and UCLA suddenly leaving the Pac-12–after nearly 100 years together going back to the old Pacific Coast Conference–to join the Big Ten left the college sports world shooketh, as the kids say. For a bunch of fans who have grown almost numb to conference realignment, or NIL deals, or talk of professionalization of football, this feels different. It could be a game-changer, especially for Notre Dame.

It was just a little over 2 months ago where I wrote THIS piece claiming a Super League™ wasn’t happening any time soon and full professionalization at some D-1 football schools was going to have to jump through some some pretty difficult political hoops. Two months ago! Now, I still feel that way about those specific issues but last week’s news was a fairly large click in that direction plus USC & UCLA ejecting themselves out of the Pac-12 has potentially massive implications for Notre Dame’s future.

Will the ACC Survive, and How Much Does Notre Dame Care?

If you want to be extremely football-centric (not an unfamiliar POV for some Notre Dame fans) you could boil things down to basics and say that as long as the Irish have a legit path to the CFB Playoffs they’ll figure out the money and figure out what to do with the rest of the athletic teams on campus. You might be able to convince yourself that even with 3 to 5 teams leaving the ACC that Notre Dame would still hold firm with football independence and let their other sports languish.

Fewer and fewer people still seem to be holding on to this thought, though.

Being a part of an ACC without Clemson, Florida State, Miami, North Carolina, and Duke would be a pretty bleak situation. The Olympic sports would be diluted and the football program would still have over a decade of scheduling 5 ACC leftovers bringing us a lot of NC State, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, etc. matchups. That seems awful.

And what exactly would be the plan in 2036 when Notre Dame’s current deal with the ACC is up?

The Big Ten is Officially a National Conference

Once upon a time, the Big Ten existed in just 7 U.S. states: Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. The distance from Ohio State in the east to Minnesota in the west was a bit under a 2-hour flight. Soon, we’ll be living in a world where the Big Ten adds California to its membership with New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Nebraska already a part of the modern league.

Plus, Oregon, Washington, and other western programs are waiting for their phone calls to be returned about membership.

It feels significant that the desire to join the Big Ten for Notre Dame football has seemingly done a 180 for Irish fans from even as little as a week ago. There are reports that USC is committed to continuing its annual rivalry with Notre Dame. That’s probably easier if the Irish stay out of the Big Ten, to be honest. But, it’s something that could be negotiated if Notre Dame does join the conference.

Is This Now or Never?

It seems naïve to think that the Big Ten and SEC will not continue their expansion plans. The ACC is very likely going to lose a ton of value and we may be 3-5 years away from teams from the “Power 2” leagues beginning to think they don’t need to schedule Notre Dame that much anymore. The Irish could remain independent for football, really at any cost, but it would come with the negative that those 7 non-ACC games would have to be extremely strong. Keeping Stanford, Navy, a couple G5 teams, and hoping USC or another power program carry the schedule may not be enough to be a serious contender.

We have to think of the money, too. Notre Dame staying put in this current situation is going to be a huge financial hit. The current NBC deal sucks and the ACC TV money is both poor and far too long-term. Neither of these would be renegotiated for much more in the future and could possibly dwindle to the equivalent of a Group of 5 payout. I think Notre Dame has been fine for a long time knowing Big Ten teams are making $10 million more per season if it meant the Irish stayed independent. Soon, that calculus will change in a big way.

What if that gulf is $50 million when the new Big Ten TV deal begins in 2024 and what if that gulf is upwards of $80 million in 2037 when the new ACC deal would begin? As Dan Wetzel notes, the Big Ten was angling for $1 billion per year with their new TV deal (or twice the payout per team that Notre Dame receives in their NBC/ACC package) and while that figure will go up with USC and UCLA in the fold the real story is that this guts the Pac-12 and Big 12 (also losing Texas and Oklahoma) from commanding big fees. The money will continue to flow to the Big Ten and SEC at the expense of the other leagues.

You could argue that the Big Ten will take Notre Dame in the future no matter what, but if you’re already using that thought process, isn’t it time to rip the band-aid off now and make the jump?

What about the Pods!?

Figuring out the placement of new teams and future scheduling is one of the fun pastimes when it comes to these big conference-jumping moves. There’s been a lot of bandwidth spent wondering how Notre Dame would fit into the Big Ten today and which teams it would be grouped with for the future. For example, being in a pod or division with Illinois, Northwestern, Purdue, and Michigan would be just about the worst-case scenario.

I also don’t think it will matter or play a part in the decision whether or not to join. If there’s one thing to negotiate it’s to keep USC as a protected annual rivalry for football. Beyond that, it’s a massive waste of money for Notre Dame’s non-football sports to be in a division with the western teams just to play USC in football every year. I can’t see that happening.

Scheduling layouts will change in the future, too. Notre Dame isn’t going to balk at joining and pass up $100 million in TV money just because they don’t like being paired with the likes of Purdue or Rutgers. Best of all, if Notre Dame were to join then surely the Big Ten will look to add 3 more teams (Washington, Oregon, and Stanford has to be the goal) to go to 20 teams overall. The best part is that the larger the conference grows the less it will remain a traditional league and the more Notre Dame could keep a semblance of a national schedule.

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This is wild. You have to wonder what people in power at Notre Dame are thinking right now or how they’ve anticipated something like the Pac-12 being raided. Or, what they truly feel about the future viability of the ACC moving forward.

It doesn’t feel like a done deal that Notre Dame will join the Big Ten but there sure seems like there’s enough smoke. More importantly, is there another path for Notre Dame to follow in the coming years that is better? Standing pat in the ACC looks increasingly suicidal, introduces a ton of question marks for football and all sports, all while bringing in a fraction of the TV money.

I thought I’d never say this: The time has come for Notre Dame to think strongly about joining the Big Ten.