The first College Football Playoff Rankings were released this past Tuesday night and place Notre Dame 10th nationally–the same spot the Irish fall in the current AP Poll, by the way. With the assumption that Oregon, Georgia, Miami, and BYU win their respective conferences we would see Notre Dame traveling to Happy Valley in late December for a 1st round playoff matchup.
We’re getting closer to the first 12-team bonanza.
2024 Betting Record
ATS: 38-45-1
SU: 54-30-0
It was another .500 week against the spread with my picks last week. Boise State and Ohio State both won and covered. Florida covered in a loss to Georgia. Plus, I didn’t think A&M would cover as slight favorites and they went ahead and lost anyway.
That A&M game in addition to Louisville losing were the only straight up losses with last week’s picks.
Week 11 Games to Watch
All times are Eastern. Rankings are from the CFP Committee.
*Note, we’ve switched from the AP to CFP rankings now!
Saturday Games
#3 Georgia [-2.5] at #16 Ole Miss
3:30 PM, ABC
Georgia still has plenty of work to do this season. They have Tennessee right after this game and a Georgia Tech team that probably won’t be a push over in the finale. Did you know this is only the 2nd meeting between these teams since 2016? Although they did play last year in a blowout Dawgs win. There’s lots of talk about Carson Beck regression and we know Ole Miss can move the ball really well. I think an upset is happening.
Ole Miss 31
Georgia 27
Michigan [+14] at #8 Indiana
3:30 PM, CBS
Michigan is sufficiently bad enough where 6-6 is the betting favorite record for them to finish 2024 and let’s hope that’s the best-case scenario! I’m super afraid of Indiana’s undefeated run coming to an end against this team of all teams, but the evidence of the Hoosiers’ elite offense in 2024 should be enough to breathe easily with this home game.
Will there be more Heisman love?
Indiana 39
Michigan 19
#23 Clemson [-6.5] at Virginia Tech
3:30 PM, ESPN
I’m still here waiting for that Clemson downfall and last week was a tick in the right direction. The Tigers have a challenging remaining schedule where they could trip up here, face another road game at Pitt next weekend, and finish with perennially upset-minded South Carolina. I like the Enter Sandman’s to keep this one really, really close. I bet Clemson pulls it out late, though.
Clemson 27
Virginia Tech 24
#11 Alabama [-3] at #15 LSU
7:30 PM, ABC
This is it for the loser of this game. If it’s Alabama the first season of the DeBoer era is pretty disastrous although they could still finish 11-3 and it wouldn’t be awful. Still, for Bama standards?? It’s probably a bigger game for Brian Kelly, especially considering it’s in Death Valley and Alabama is extremely wobbly this year. A loss for Kelly and it’s at least 3 defeats in each of his first 3 seasons. A win though, and LSU has a real shot at the SEC Championship–and maybe, just maybe, a first round bye. Tough call here, I think Jalen Milroe does one less stupid thing that allows Alabama the victory.
Alabama 21
LSU 17
#9 BYU [-4] at Utah
10:15 PM, ESPN
Hopefully we get color on color again.
The Holy War is back and it’s BYU with the surprising high ranking and not pre-season no. 12 Utes (BYU didn’t even receive any votes in the AP Poll). Offensively, Utah is in shambles right now with just 50 points combined across their current 4-game losing streak. Their defense is legit, as usual, though. Throw out the records, I think we’re getting a loss on that BYU record.
Utah 20
BYU 16
That Holy War line is wild. I get that BYU isn’t really as good as their record, but even at 4-4 Utah probably isn’t as good as their record either. I have the Utes getting smoked but I sure hope this turns out to be a case of Vegas knowing something
If you used SP+ projections plus home field utah would be favored. I hadn’t checked the sp+ score prediction but advanced stats don’t love byu
SP+ favors BYU but veeeeeery slightly, -1.5. The Vegas spread has moved down slightly since it opened. There’s a lot of bearishness out there on the Cougs.
Probably need a ND guide to rooting with how many factors there are
Georgia over Ole miss. (would both teams stay in front of nd if ole miss wins and georgia beats tennesse? probably)
LSU over bama. gross i know, but 2 loss bama would probably jump notre dame, but 2 loss lsu really can’t. both their losses would be to teams nd beat
Indiana over michigan. because michigan winning is never a good thing and f them
Utah over byu. a utah win guarantees only 1 big 12/boise state in front of nd
Georgia tech over miami. obviously would ensure only 1 acc team above nd and gives nd a better win
Ole Miss hasn’t scored 4 TDs against any defense with a pulse this year. 0% chance they score 30 against the best defense on their schedule, unless Beck throws multiple pick-6s.
IU has beaten Michigan once in the past 35 years. It’s incredible to see them as 14 point favorites; and that really doesn’t feel like a significantly aggressive line!
BK beating Alabama and then losing to Clark Lea would be the funniest possible outcome; I would love this so so much.
SP+, which is opponent-adjusted, has Ole Miss as a 2.5 point favorite over Georgia. I think they’re a legit good offensive team and Georgia has been extremely inconsistent. If you’re curious, SP+ has Indiana as a 12.5 point favorite and LSU as a 5.5 point dog.
Also yes that would be hilarious.
I’d like to see Georgia keep winning if it means we meet them in the playoffs. I think a PSU, Georgia path to final four would be awesome for ND. I’d like to see Beck against this ND defense.
Georgia has definitely looked inconsistent of late, but hard to think Kirby won’t have them ready for a quarterfinal playoff game. That said, I really think Oregon is the closest to a team that I don’t think we could beat. Everything else, give us a shot and see!