One (full) week down on the season. The biggest upset so far came back in Week 0 in Ireland (although that’s since been a little watered down LOL FSU) while Week 1 was a pretty quiet affair across the nation. Technically, the Fighting Irish sprung an upset but that wasn’t very shocking to many folks. Before we get to the new games here’s a recap of the first set of picks from last week.
2024 Betting Record
ATS: 7-1-0
SU: 6-2-0
For one week I was a sharp.
Georgia and Miami were easy straight up wins who also covered with zero problems. I thought North Dakota State, Stanford, and Fresno State would all cover and they did so. Georgia Tech was picked to cover and also sealed the upset victory over Florid State. USC was my underdog to win outright and they pulled that off on Sunday night.
I picked West Virginia to cover but Penn State ended up running away by 22 points, it’s my only loss against the spread from week one.
Week 2 Games to Watch
All times are Eastern. Rankings are from the AP Poll.
BYU [+10.5] at SMU
Friday, September 6th, 7:00 PM, ESPN2
I’m not sure many saw it during Week 0 but SMU struggled big time beating Nevada only by 5 points. Now, BYU and SMU are separated by only 13 spots in the latest FEI rankings. I don’t know, being double-digit favorites for the Ponies feels like an awful lot to ask early in the season, right?
SMU 38
BYU 34
#3 Texas [-7.5] at #10 Michigan
Saturday, September 7th, 12:00 PM, Fox
I’m hoping for never again.
Speaking of FEI rankings, these are your 5th (Michigan) and 6th (Texas) ranked teams right now. UM looked like trash on offense last week and adjustments are certainly coming to these rankings (Michigan is rated higher offensively than Texas!) very soon. This is a game where Texas puts itself firmly in the playoff driver seat and Michigan starts to experience a slow painful death.
Texas 31
Michigan 9
Arkansas [+7.5] at #16 Oklahoma State
Saturday, September 7th, 12:00 PM, ABC
I will admit that Oklahoma State is probably the most overrated team in the AP Poll right now. This early in the season we always have a couple teams just there by default without a bunch of hype and the Cowboys are that team. So, a potential upset pick here is warranted. However, I’m curious to see how Arkansas looks in their first real test without KJ Jefferson at quarterback in what feels like 14 years.
Oklahoma State 43
Arkansas 40
Baylor [+14] at #11 Utah
Saturday, September 7th, 3:30 PM, Fox
This is a big game for Baylor looking to shake off a really poor 2023 season and put a better foot forward this year. It’s not an easy task to travel to Salt Lake City against new conference foe Utah. Former Toledo quarterback Dequan Finn is starting for the Bears and while he’s a playmaker there are always big mistakes (2 interceptions last week against Tartleton State). I can see Baylor being spunky for a while although Utah is strong at home and pulls away late.
Utah 39
Baylor 27
Iowa State [+2.5] at #21 Iowa
Saturday, September 7th, 3:30 PM, CBS
El Assico is back once again and broadcast on CBS, lucky them! Traditionally, this is one of the closest scoring rivalries in college football each game, although Iowa has won 14 out of the last 20 meetings. When in doubt, take Iowa’s defense in this scenario no matter how ugly their offense can be, right? Right!?
Iowa 19
Iowa State 13
#19 Kansas [-5] at Illinois
Saturday, September 7th, 7:00 PM, FS1
In the pre-season, I mentioned Kansas’ very favorable schedule but this was an early-season road trip where they could mess things up. I expected this line to be in the low double-digits so apparently Vegas is keenly aware of the competition coming from Illinois on Saturday night. Watch out Jayhawks!
Kansas 35
Illinois 32 (overtime)
#14 Tennessee [-8] at #24 NC State (Charlotte, NC)
Saturday, September 7th, 7:30 PM, ABC
Duke’s mayonnaise is trying to take over college football. Not only do they sponsor a bowl game but they are in week 2 sponsoring the Duke’s Mayo Classic. It only makes sense if you’re a college football fan. Should we overreact to NC State’s tough start to their season last week? That’s what I’ll do.
Tennessee 40
NC State 23
Colorado [+7.5] at Nebraska
Saturday, September 7th, 7:30 PM, NBC
We’re gonna have a lot of media in Lincoln this weekend.
Dylan Raiola looked solid in his first career start last week. Still, for as leaky as Colorado’s defense can be is anyone comfortable with Nebraska covering more than a touchdown against most Power 4 programs? With the dynamic ability from Shadeur Sanders I think they can go into Lincoln and cause a ton of problems.
Nebraska 27
Colorado 24
App State [+17.5] at #25 Clemson
Saturday, September 7th, 8:00 PM, ACC Network
This is either the most let down sandwich game for Clemson or the perfect opportunity for them to re-group and get back on track with a strong performance. It’s either going to be super ugly and pitchforks are coming out in a loss or the Tigers cruise rather easily. I’m a little shocked by how big this spread is and feel like it’s based off Clemson’s past reputation. Vegas knows something, though.
Clemson 36
App State 17
Boise State [+19.5] at #7 Oregon
Saturday, September 7th, 10:00 PM, Peacock
Again, huge spread for a game I felt like might be a little tighter. Did you see former 5-star USC freshman Malachi Nelson transferred to Boise State this off-season only to be beat out by a 5’10” dude? The transfer portal giveth and it taketh away. Hey, Dillon Gabriel isn’t very tall either. This is the battle of the short kings!
Oregon 48
Boise State 27
They weren’t giving him 5’11” on the official roster.
I’m happy to lay the points picking:
But give me Boise St all day with that spread!
No one is scoring 31 on a Dan Brown defense harrumph.
Fine Don Brown. I da Vinci coded myself.
BYU with the outright win.
Thought that spread looked wide based purely on talent but decided to burn last night’s credits on the Duke-NW under instead. Stupid college OT rules!