We’re already into week 5 of the 2024 college football season with the last games in September coming up quickly. This weekend we have a massively important matchup in the SEC between modern powerhouses surrounded by a nice selection of games, but nothing too exciting. You can expect ABC to get a big fat TV rating on Saturday night, that much is certain. Before we get to the new picks let’s revisit last week.
2024 Betting Record
ATS: 14-20-0
SU: 24-10-0
Yikes, another brutal day at the books against the spread going 1-7 this past week. Only the Illinois upset over Nebraska saved me from another shutout. I’m out here getting cooked.
Going 4-4 straight up doesn’t make me feel any better. Nebraska, Florida, USC, and Oklahoma State all losing were the bad picks of the week.
Week 5 Games to Watch
All times are Eastern. Rankings are from the AP Poll.
Virginia Tech [+19] at #7 Miami
Friday, September 27th, 7:30 PM, ESPN
All of the Big East vibes this Friday night from Coral Gables. Even this early in the season, these teams appear headed in different directions. Virginia Tech–my national darkhorse pick for a quality season–have already lost to Vanderbilt and Rutgers. WTF? Now, maybe those traditional doormats are halfway decent this year, but still. Surely, the Hokies are due for a nice bounce back and some cracks appear in this Miami team?
Miami 32
Virginia Tech 28
#20 Oklahoma State [+4.5] at #23 Kansas StateÂ
Saturday, September 28th, 12:00 PM, ESPN
This was lining up to be a huge game in the Big XII and then both programs lost last weekend. Womp, womp. Neither of these teams are going to want to drop to 0-2 in league play and face a huge climb back into contention for a playoff spot. Looking at the score last week, it may have looked like BYU exposed the young Avery Johnson at quarterback–although the Cougars only gained 241 total yards. I’m going to trust the home team here but this game has overtime written all over it.
Kansas State 27
Oklahoma State 24
Northern Illinois [+7] at NC State
Saturday, September 28th, 12:00 PM, CW Network
Hell yes I’m including this game. It was scheduled on the early look ahead before NIU lost to Buffalo but I’m keeping it in anyway. Quarterback Grayson McCall remains day-to-day and the Wolfpack may have to roll with true freshman CJ Bailey again. I would imagine NC State wins this and covers–Dave Doeren needs this one.
NC State 40
Northern Illinois 24
#3 Ohio State [+24] at Michigan State
Saturday, September 28th, 7:00 PM, Peacock
My history was way off on this series. I had been thinking Ohio State struggles in East Lansing and that is flatly not the case at all. They’ve won their last 9 visits to Sparty Land and outside of a couple peak Dantonio years the games haven’t been close. I had been eyeing a potential 4-0 MSU adding a little more intrigue here but they lost to Boston College last weekend. Stay on Peacock after the Irish game to catch this if you’d like.
Ohio State 45
Michigan State 17
#19 Illinois [+18.5] at #9 Penn State
Saturday, September 28th, 7:30 PM, NBC
Comcast has put this game head to head against our previous game all in the Big Ten which is a curious decision. And both will have to compete with the best the SEC has to offer. So no one is going to be paying attention to this and everyone is going to be surprised when they wake up on Sunday at 5-0 Illinois is destined for the top 10.
Illinois 23
Penn State 21
#2 Georgia [-2] at #4 Alabama
Saturday, September 28th, 7:30 PM, ABC
This will be the 7th meeting between Bama and Georgia since Kirby Smart has taken the Dawgs to elite national status. The Tide are 5-1 in those games with the series split 1-1 in National Championship games. Out of any set of teams, these two are probably as destined as anyone to meet again in the playoffs. Does that take away from the significance here? I kind of like Alabama outright as home underdogs–it’s been 17(!!!) years since that’s been the case.
Alabama 29
Georgia 27
Arizona [+11] at #10 Utah
Saturday, September 28th, 10:15 PM, ESPN
This is a tough stretch for Arizona coming off a drubbing at Kansas State and immediately heading back on the road to a tough place to play in Salt Lake City. I don’t see how the Wildcats respond that well, although based on my betting the last couple weeks do the opposite here.
Utah 44
Arizona 26
A mess at UNLV. This was predictable going into the NIL era. Promises made and broken or a kid(s) looking for a bigger pay day ? I know which side I believe but, I’m certainly biased being a fan of Matt Sluka. IMO “somebody” made promises to the kid that aren’t being kept.
It’s a proper mess.
Maybe all of us who thought this was going to turn into a cluster weren’t just big meanies who wanted to keep the kids from getting that bag, after all…
Almost like the player empowerment stuff wasn’t all a happy panacea and has had serious negative externalities.
It would be good for both sides if players could just sign contracts directly with the school.
They do! That’s what a scholarship agreement is.
Obviously that agreement is limited. The point would be for schools to sign players to contracts for more than what they can offer through scholarships.
Should be done through the marketing dept. or such. Isn’t that what it’s supposed to be about? Not pay for play. The bag man is still lurking though.
Bear Alexander also calling it quits on the season and transferring from USC. He wasn’t playing so this doesn’t weaken them for us, but now we get to keep an eye out on week ~5 of the season for these situations.
The wave of midseason quitting that’s happening right now is nuts.
No more red shirts ?
Opposite – unexpected red shirts
I meant in the future. Less incentive to sit out.
Hey remember that time when a Bills player decide to retire at halftime rather than go back out for the third quarter? What if we made that a recurring thing in college football, it’ll be great for the sport.
Maybe this is a function of not living in SEC Country (TM), but it’s kind of amazing how little hype Bama-Georgia is getting. It’s #2 vs. #4. 15-20 years ago, this would have been Game of the Century stuff. But thanks to the playoff, the outcome of this game doesn’t matter at all.
Is NC State the most irrelevant or bland college football program? They don’t really do anything good or bad. Wake would be a pick but they always have the “super small school” thing going for them.
I always go “oh ya, they exist” and aren’t even aware of their record whenever they pop up.
Not really because they have an interestingly rabid fanbase