The recent Blood Week for several college football teams left an impression and it started out looking like the week 6 picks were going to be dead and buried too. I ended up recovering and doing okay. This week, we’ve got one heck of a lineup in the afternoon and into the night. Buckle up.
2024 Betting Record
ATS: 22-27-1
SU: 35-15-0
I went 4-5-0 against the spread and 6-3-0 straight up with my picks last week. Virginia, Ohio State, Ole Miss, and Nebraska all won and covered. I picked Navy to win but not to cover and they very much covered. I thought Clemson would win but it would be closer, yet they ended up just getting over the line for a cover.
UNLV, Missouri, and Louisville were straight up wrong winning picks.
Week 7 Games to Watch
All times are Eastern. Rankings are from the AP Poll.
Friday Games
#16 Utah [-6] at Arizona State
10:30 PM, ESPN
I wasn’t going to include this game but I wanted to offer something up for Friday, Arizona State is a quiet 4-1 right now, and unbeaten at home. Is Kenny Dillingham cooking something up in Tempe? Utah is coming off a bye after suffering their only loss of the season to Arizona. A win and comfortable cover here is the smart move. I just can’t resist late-night Big 12 drama.
Utah 32
Arizona State 29
Saturday Games
#1 Texas [-14] vs. #18 Oklahoma
3:30 PM, ABC
Except for Texas’ 49-0 win a couple years ago, we’re going on a decade of Red River Rivalry bangers bringing us endless amounts of entertainment and close games. Quinn Ewers is expected back at quarterback for Texas. The Sooners offense has been struggling mightily and this might be the worst they’ve looked on that side of the ball in many years. The spread feels high for this rivalry game but I’m going with the Horns preventing a back door cover by Oklahoma.
It is time.
Texas 37
Oklahoma 21
#4 Penn State [-5.5] at USC
3:30 PM, CBS
Penn State has been a paper tiger for so long and here they are in the top 5 and facing a team (on paper) with more talent. I don’t have a feel for this one. Surely the Trojans bounce back? Will Penn State struggle with a cross-country trip and early West Coast kickoff? We need USC to offer something for our regular season finale!
USC 29
Penn State 27
Louisville [-7.5] at Virginia
3:30 PM, ACC Network
I’ll be taking a peek at this game as Louisville looks to avoid a 3-game losing streak and Virginia (a bit frisky but not that good) looks to move to 3-0 in ACC play. If the Cardinals can’t take care of business here there may be some problems in Louisville.
Louisville 35
Virginia 19
Arizona [+4.5] at #14 BYU
4:00 PM, Fox
Arizona has been all over the place this year, recently beating Utah as mentioned above but also dropping a game to Texas Tech immediately afterward. They’ve been a ‘don’t bet on us’ team for a while now, although I’m breaking my own rule because BYU seems due for a loss.
Arizona 39
BYU 35
Florida [+15.5] at #8 Tennessee
7:00 PM, ESPN
The Gators have to be feeling a lot better lately following back-to-back wins while Tennessee just dropped a super winnable game at Arkansas. DJ Lagway hasn’t been handed the keys to the Florida offense yet, and it won’t happen in this game. Tennessee should win this and avenge last year’s bad loss to the Gators. It’ll stay close, though.
Tennessee 29
Florida 23
#2 Ohio State [-3] at #3 Oregon
7:30 PM, NBC
Yes, this is a big game. With a win, Oregon would take firm command in the Big Ten and very likely clinch a spot in the league championship. They don’t face Penn State whereas Ohio State does in a few weeks. The Ducks have a far easier road ahead. Can they take care of business at home? I think both offenses here are a little suspect, which is definitely not the norm for either program in recent times. I’m going to bet on Ohio State’s defense.
Ohio State 33
Oregon 31
#9 Ole Miss [-3.5] at #13 LSU
7:30 PM, ABC
Last year’s Magnolia Bowl was the first meeting in 7 years where both teams came in ranked. Now they do it again in 2024. It’ll be tough to beat last year’s super fun 55-49 win for the Rebels and one of the best victories in Lane Kiffin’s career. Clearly, Ole Miss has greater expectations coming in as the road favorite (a rare sight in Death Valley). Will Big Game Brian work his magic?
Last year was lit.
Ole Miss 43
LSU 40
#11 Iowa State [-3] at West Virginia
8:00 PM, Fox
This is one of those games where Iowa State either takes the next step towards possibly winning the Big 12 or we find out that they aren’t quite as good as their record indicates. The Cyclones are ranked 16th according to FEI! I have a feeling a loss is coming in Morgantown at night, though.
West Virginia 24
Iowa State 20
#18 Kansas State [-4] at Colorado
10:15 PM, ESPN
They weirdly haven’t been getting a lot of press lately, but Colorado is 2-0 in the Big 12 and could jump right back into the limelight with a home win this weekend. The advanced stats do favor Kansas State a lot more than this meager spread would indicate. I like the Wildcats ability to run the ball (top Power 4 team in yards per carry) and less so Coach Prime’s results in these big games.
Kansas State 39
Colorado 17
