Follow me and ponder the question… What if?
Those of you who are fans of the Marvel Cinematic Universe will instantly recognize this question. After 12 years of slowly building up a media empire with familiar names, Marvel has unleashed the multiverse on the world. A realm filled with alternate realities has been explored by Marvel’s Disney Plus shows, What If...?, Loki, and the most recent Spider-Man.*
This got me thinking about the times in Notre Dame football history when the future of the program seemed to wobble on a knife-edge. Sometimes, it’s worked out for Irish fans. Stepfan Taylor’s lunge toward the goal line in 2012 was a millisecond too late. Unfortunately for us, we have also been subjected to the times where referees decided to make themselves the story or a fumble has bounced the wrong way. Such is the life of Irish fandom in the 21st century… or is it?
Time. Space. Reality. It’s more than a linear path. It’s a prism of endless possibility, where a single choice can branch out into infinite realities, creating alternate worlds from the ones you know. I am your guide through these vast new realities. Follow me and ponder the question, “What if?”
*For those of you who don’t care about the MCU, I am sorry. I’ll keep the references to a minimum.
A Decision
DeShone Kizer sat by himself, tucked away in a lonely corner of the locker room. The Irish quarterback hadn’t played well despite overwhelming odds. In a season full of disappointment, the 45-27 loss to USC in the series finale somehow seemed to hurt the most. Notre Dame nearly out-gained the ninth-ranked Trojans and matched their physicality on every down, but Kizer’s mistakes and another special teams meltdown doomed the Irish to a humiliating 4-8 finish.
That didn’t sit well with Kizer. He had played brilliantly to begin the year only for the defense to collapse. Only when the offensive explosion dried up did the defense stabilize. The result was a catastrophe which had wrecked most of the momentum built up since Brian Kelly had arrived in South Bend. 2016 was a frustrating, surreal season for a quarterback who expected to be a first-round pick in the upcoming draft.
As Kizer sat and pondered his future, he thought about what he had already overcome to that point. Third string and on the verge of quitting the team before the 2015 season, now a consensus top pick in the draft. He had led the most talented Irish team of the last 20 years to the gates of the playoff before an emotionally shattering loss to Stanford in the season finale. The season after, he almost single-handedly rallied Notre Dame to victory multiple times that year despite the team collapsing around him. He had proved so much, yet he still felt a nagging feeling. A gut feeling telling him that there was more to be gained. “After all,” he thought, “I could end up in Cleveland if I’m not careful!”
DeShone Kizer knew that he had more adversity left to conquer. But it would not be under the tutelage of Hue Jackson.
A Familiar Face Leaves
Brian Kelly had already planned a massive overhaul of the entire program without his star quarterback. The shocking news of Kizer’s return reinvigorated an offseason already buzzing about the new coordinator hires. Chip Long had envisioned an offense built around Notre Dame’s powerful line and talented running backs. The addition of a potential first round pick at QB added a new dimension that could drive a record-breaking unit.
However, the team was not immune to turnover in spring camp. Third-string quarterback Ian Book could see the writing on the wall. Kizer was entrenched as the clear starter with former blue chipper Brandon Wimbush was the heir apparent and recruiting phenom Phil Jurkovec had been committed for a full year. With a heavy heart, Book decided to transfer closer to his original college destination, Washington State. Newly enrolled freshman Avery Davis would now slide into the #3 spot for the season.
A September Night in South Bend
Despite the loss of quarterback depth, a sense of rejuvenation flooded the Gug. The national media was impressed as well, with the preseason AP Poll ranking the Irish #24 despite eight losses the previous year. With a loaded offense and an improving defense, Notre Dame embarked on the 2017 campaign with a 52-14 destruction of Temple in the season opener. Kizer led Chip Long’s new-look offense to 639 yards, of which over 400 was on the ground. This victory lifted the Irish to #20 in anticipation of #15 Georgia’s visit to South Bend. The Bulldogs were the first ranked SEC team to visit Notre Dame Stadium since Tennessee in 2001. For many, this game would be a make-or-break opportunity and a test of Kelly’s powers of reinvention.
The night began ominously when the Irish came out for pregame warmups and were shocked to find themselves surrounded by red-clad fans. Facing a split home crowd and a ravenous Dawg’s defense, the Irish offense struggled most of the night in a tight contest. With the running game bottled up, Kizer threw three interceptions as the vaunted Irish offensive line was overwhelmed by Roquan Smith and Lorenzo Carter. However, Mike Elko’s defense managed to hold the score down and give Kizer one more chance with a minute and a half remaining.
Trailing 20-16, Kizer took over from his own 18-yard line with quickly completed two passes to Chase Claypool and Durham Smythe to move into Georgia territory. After an incompletion, he lofted a beautiful fade to Equanimeous St. Brown for a 30-yard gain down to the Georgia 13-yard line. However, Roquan Smith sacked Kizer with 25 seconds left and with no timeouts, the Irish had to run a play. Kizer took the shotgun snap and scanned to his left: nothing. Then his right: nothing. Bailing out of the pocket to his right, Kizer spotted seldom-targeted Miles Boykin open and rifled a pass to him for a touchdown with nine seconds left to play. The Irish half of the stadium went nuts as the final score flashed on the new video board.
Notre Dame 23
Georgia 20
The Run
The victory over Georgia launched Notre Dame to 12th in the newest AP Poll and the Irish were garnering real hype. They rolled to a 52-21 victory against Boston College in Chestnut Hill the week after before a visit to Michigan State. The Irish found themselves in a close game but pulled away late for a 31-20 road win. The Irish spent the next two weeks at #7 and scored easy wins over Chuck Martin’s Miami (63-17) and an awful North Carolina (41-9). Kizer was playing well, but the real story was a tremendous running game behind Josh Adams and the unstoppable tandem of Mike McGlinchey and Quenton Nelson.
The 12th-ranked USC Trojans came to town at the midway mark of the season with the 6-0 Irish now ranked #5. College Gameday eschewed Penn State-Michigan in order to preview what promised to be a duel between Kizer and Sam Darnold, the two consensus top-picks at QB in the upcoming NFL Draft. What they got instead was an 45-17 Irish romp, in which Kizer threw three touchdowns to newly reinstated Kevin Stepherson while Josh Adams added 220 yards rushing. The 7-0 Irish walloped #14 NC State 42-14 the following week behind another brilliant tag team performance from Kizer and Adams.
When the CFP Committee debuted the first rankings of the season, Notre Dame found themselves at #1 just ahead of #2 Alabama. Kizer and Adams were both garnering Heisman hype that ND’s social media gurus expertly utilized with a “Kizer-Adams Law Group” marketing campaign. An uneven game against Wake Forest the following week still resulted in a 52-34 Irish victory, but Josh Adams suffered an ankle injury that would keep him out for two weeks. Nonetheless, the top-ranked Irish headed to South Beach for a primetime matchup against undefeated #8 Miami flush with confidence.
Trials and Tribulations
On Notre Dame’s first drive of the game, Kizer hit St. Brown (now approaching 1,000 yards receiving) for a 36-yard touchdown. However, the underdog Canes battled back to take a 10-7 lead in the second quarter when disaster struck. Kizer suffered a concussion lunging for a first down, knocking him out of the game. Brandon Wimbush had only played garbage time up to this point in the season but still led the Irish to a 17-all halftime tie, using his speed and shiftiness to keep the offense on schedule.
However, Miami correctly gambled that Wimbush’s arm was less capable than his legs and decided to load up on the Irish running game. Backup running back Dexter Williams was completely shut down and the dreaded turnover chain came out when he fumbled in the red zone at a critical moment in the third quarter. Wimbush could only lead Notre Dame to one second half field goal and the Canes pulled away with a 34-20 victory. Knocked from the ranks of the unbeaten, the Irish fell to #4 and were now without their star quarterback and running back. The best season for Notre Dame football since 1993 was now in jeopardy.
The following week saw a 28-14 slog against the Naval Academy in the cold South Bend rain. It was apparent that Brandon Wimbush was a spectacular runner, but the passing game suffered with him under center. To make matter worse, unbeaten Wisconsin jumped the Irish for the #4 spot after beating Michigan. However, #2 Miami choked against unranked Pitt and #1 Alabama was beaten by #6 Auburn just as the Irish were taking the field in Palo Alto. With Kizer’s imminent return against #20 Stanford, Notre Dame would have a chance to make the playoff.
Roses
The field conditions at Stanford Stadium on November 25th were typically abominable. Irish receivers had slipped at least five times coming out of their routes, exacerbating a night where a rusty Kizer was already off his game. Notre Dame clung to a 21-17 fourth quarter lead when Kevin Stepherson took a middle screen and finally broke free for a 58-yard touchdown. This provided the spark the Irish needed to pull away with a 31-24 win. All they could do now was hope a team above them would lose.
Championship week instead produced two upsets as both #3 Auburn and #4 Wisconsin lost, vaulting the Irish to #2. The final playoff bracket would pit Notre Dame against Oklahoma in the Rose Bowl while #1 Clemson would meet the resurgent SEC champs Georgia Bulldogs in the Sugar Bowl. Incredibly, the Irish were in the College Football Playoff a year after going 4-8. Despite neither being invited to New York City, Kizer and Adams both finished in the top-ten for the Heisman Trophy.
Notre Dame’s first visit to Pasadena since 1925 did not disappoint. The Rose Bowl was a back-and-forth affair which saw the Sooners and Irish trading blows for 60 minutes. Heisman winner Baker Mayfield threw four touchdowns but a superhuman effort by Josh Adams helped Notre Dame’s offense keep pace. The Irish running back had 200 yards rushing against a soft OU defense entering the fourth quarter. Even so, Oklahoma held a 42-38 lead late in the game when the offense got the ball back one more time.
In the end, it was Kizer teaming up with Boykin for a touchdown with 2:06 left in the game to give the Irish a 45-42 lead. Mike Elko’s beleaguered defense had been under fire all day long, but finally stopped the Sooners on fourth down at midfield. One kneel down later and the Irish were Rose Bowl champions.
All Good Things…
The Irish headed to Atlanta for a rematch with Georgia who had beaten Clemson 21-13 in the other semifinal. However, the team suffered a major blow when Kevin Stepherson was dismissed prior to the national championship game, depriving Kizer of his second favorite target. Notre Dame came into the matchup a five-point underdog against a team they had already beaten.
Playing against another crowd mostly dressed in UGA’s red and black, Kizer led the Irish to a 17-13 lead at halftime. Unlike the first matchup, the Quenton Nelson and the offensive line were able to hold their own against the Georgia front. Adams punctuated a business-like 10-play, 75-yard drive with a nine-yard touchdown run just before halftime. Notre Dame was 30 minutes away from its first national title since 1988.
Unfortunately, the Dawgs dominated the second half and clamped down on the Irish offense. The game was tied at 20 entering the fourth before Nick Chubb plunged into the endzone with eight minutes left to give Georgia its first lead. Kizer mounted a last-ditch effort that fell just short on a failed fourth down inside the redzone. There would be no heroics this time. Kirby Smart was swallowed by a Gatorade bath and the dream season was over.
The Offseason
The most successful season in 24 years would portend both positive and negative consequences. Mike Elko left to replace Jeremy Pruitt as Alabama’s defensive coordinator and Kelly promoted Clark Lea to fill the gap. The loss of Harry Heistand to the NFL also forced Kelly to look for a new offensive line coach. He considered his friend Jeff Quinn but decided to go with Boston College’s Justin Frye.
Despite rumors that Kizer would go first overall to the Browns, he became the third QB off the board to the Bills with the eighth pick. He joined Quenton Nelson and Mike McGlinchey as a trio of top ten picks for the Irish. Altogether, the 2018 NFL Draft would see six players from Notre Dame chosen in the first two days, mostly on offense.
The success of the 2017 season bore fruit on the recruiting trail as well. Amon-Ra St. Brown committed to the Irish over USC and Notre Dame finished 7th in the 247 composite for the class of 2018. Despite the title game loss, an era of good feelings seemed to wash over campus in anticipation of the 2018 season.
The 2018 Season
The 2018 Irish were expected to take a step back with a rebuilt offensive line, new long-term starter at quarterback, and a #9 preseason ranking to reflect these uncertainties. Luckily, it was the nine starters back on defense which made the difference in a 28-16 win over #13 Michigan in the season opener. The Irish downed Ball State 37-10 the following week before a surprising 23-16 escape against Vanderbilt at home. The ‘Dores decided to load the box and dare Wimbush to beat them with his arm, leading to a dramatic decrease in offensive output. It was a formula that Notre Dame’s opponents would use to great effect in the coming weeks.
The fourth-ranked Irish scuffled past Wake Forest in a 29-17 win before a showdown with #8 Stanford. Notre Dame managed to eek out a 20-17 victory behind a heroic performance from Clark Lea’s defense. However, another close win at Virginia Tech set off more warning bells. With Wimbush at QB, the Irish could not utilize their three-headed receiving monster of St. Brown, Boykin and Claypool. It was not a matter of whether the scuffling offense would lose the Irish a game, but when.
The offensive slog continued until the bottom finally gave out in a 17-15 upset loss at home to Pitt. Wimbush finished 13-29 passing for 157 yards and threw two costly interceptions. Kelly and Chip Long decided to stick with their starter despite the ailing passing game. A win against Navy was followed by another loss, this time to Northwestern in Evanston. With Irish fans clamoring for Jurkovec or even Avery Davis, Kelly stuck with his beleaguered starter.
To the surprise of everyone, Wimbush rebounded and led the Irish to a blowout win over Florida State, followed by a 31-0 bludgeoning of #13 Syracuse in the Shamrock Series. The #10 Irish ended the regular season with a 21-13 win over USC in LA and scored an invite to the Fiesta Bowl against #7 UCF. Unfortunately, Wimbush’s issues manifested themselves once again in a 26-23 loss to the Golden Knights where the Irish QB struggled mightly.
Aftermath
Following the Fiesta Bowl loss, Kelly promised an “open competition” in the spring of 2019. Wimbush, Davis, and Jurkovec would all take first-string reps in an effort to sort out a suddenly shaky position. Jurkovec and Wimbush would both end up taking snaps in a sluggish 25-17 win over Louisville with neither QB impressing. The story was largely the same the following week against New Mexico as the Irish running game carried a 35-10 victory.
However, the road would get much harder with a looming trip to Athens the following week in a highly-anticipated rematch against #2 Georgia. Despite the hype, the Dawgs smothered the ninth-ranked Irish 29-7 in a game that was never close. Notre Dame only managed a single touchdown on a night where nothing went right for an offense which lacked identity.
The Wimbush-Jurkovec tag team fell apart under withering pressure from the Georgia defense and left Kelly with a choice. Would he stick with his experienced but limited starter in Wimbush, or would the talented but raw Jurkovec get the keys to the offense? What if this decision would define Kelly’s reinvention of the program? The wrong decision could send the team spiraling, or it could propel them to greater heights. It would all happen at this moment where time, space and reality could split into different paths.
What if, indeed.
So which universe do you prefer? Would you rather come within a touchdown of winning the national title and suffer from QB instability for the foreseeable future? Or maybe you would prefer our current reality where Ian Book calmly led Notre Dame to 30 wins in four years.
Notes from the Multiverse
- In 2017, DeShone Kizer threw 30 touchdowns against seven interceptions on 65% completion while Josh Adams racked up 1,752 yards rushing, easily breaking the Notre Dame single-season record. Equanemous St. Brown led the team with 1,142 receiving yards and was chosen in the second-round of the draft.
- In our world, Notre Dame finished 12th in SP+ and couldn’t crack the top-10 in either side of the ball. However in this reality, the Irish offense finished 2nd in SP+, 10th in defense, and 4th overall.
- Without Notre Dame in the #3 spot in 2018, Clemson defeated Oklahoma 49-27 in the Cotton Bowl. The playoff committee also decided against a UGA-Alabama rematch and instead pitted Ohio State against the Tide. Alabama won 40-31 before getting destroyed by Clemson as in our reality.
- Dexter Williams played all thirteen games in 2018 and had a brilliant season, racking up 1,308 yards rushing and 10 touchdowns. Brandon Wimbush threw for 18 touchdowns and ran for seven more, but his 55% completion along with 12 interceptions hampered the offense.
- Clark Lea’s inaugural 2018 defense is even better in this timeline having been forced to carry the team. They finish #6 in Defensive SP+. The Irish offense in 2018? They slide to #38 after an uneven year.
- In our reality, Clay Helton survived his 5-7 season at USC. But in this alternate world, Helton is fired after losing to Notre Dame in the season finale and replaced by Les Miles. Yes, you read that correctly (After all, Lynn Swann is still the AD).
- Finally, Ian Book transferred to Washington State and beat out Gardner Minshew for the starting job in 2018. The former Irish QB led the Pac-12 champion Cougars to a 12-2 record and a Rose Bowl victory against Michigan.
This is a fun exercise and I look forward to more of these!
But, to quibble: I think a jump from 12th to 2nd based on Kiser’s return alone is a bit of a stretch. I do think we probably beat Georgia and still lose to Miami in a less ugly game, so we would have probably made the playoff… but I’m less sanguine about our odds there. He was good, but as his NFL career has shown, he wasn’t *that* good.
Actual 2017 ND finished #4 rushing / #58 passing in SP+. Kiser would absolutely improve the passing game and make the defense a bit more honest. I have no doubt that the offense, as a whole, would be better if Kiser was at QB. Don’t have to be a NFL Hall of Famer to be a college great.
Ah, I misread this and saw the #2 as #2 overall in SP+. #4 is still pretty optimistic. Our actual 2017 SP+ rating was 20.8 and the #4 slot was 26.7. Vegas doesn’t usually shift point lines by a full touchdown if the starting QB is out, is my sense.
I agree. I think Kizer would have been a pretty sizeable upgrade. Kizer was a darn good college QB even if he wasn’t a good NFL QB.
Definitely agree there, Kizer as an experienced college QB would have been a really big upgrade and done a lot of good.
I do wonder how good the passing game would have been though, on the account of the weapons for Kizer to work with. 2017 had EQ St. Brown, who was good but not really great if we’re talking “elite college offense WR1”. Sophomore Chase Claypool, who wasn’t really ready for primetime, Stepherson was even more unreliable, Boykin was OK but still a work in progress. TE (Alize Mack) was about as weak as TE ever is as Notre Dame, with Kmet as a freshman and basically a non-factor.
No doubt Kizer makes them better in a meaningful way, but I have doubts he really breaks it open that much more.
If Kizer stays another year, he builds more confidence in his own abilities to perform at a high level, doesn’t get drafted by the Browns (where QB’s go to die, or is just ND QB’s?) and has a decent if not spectacular NFL career.
2018 was a much stronger QB draft class than 2017. Kizer probably goes 6th or 7th QB off the board vs 3rd.
And if he’s the 6th or 7th QB take, there’s much less pressure to get him in immediately. Allows him to ease his way into the NFL – some guys flourish being thrown into the fire and some guys flourish when they can gently ease their nuts into the pool. Sadly, it seemed like he was the former (’17 UVA game), but maybe for the NFL, he was the latter.
Glad you enjoyed it!
Alright so I think I need to know what happens to josh allen in this scenario? Would the browns still have gotten the no 1 pick that year with someone besides kizer at qb? Is kizer still in the league? Would guess jackson actually just won his 3rd straight super bowl title? the butterfly effect here is wild
I doubt someone else at QB would have affected the Browns that much. Would the Browns’s record have really been better?
As a Browns fan, I can assure you they still would’ve gotten the #1 pick.
That is very interesting. I was starting to develop a thought that the 2022 ND team is parallel to the 2017 team, in some ways. This year’s OL isn’t quite as stacked of course, but just from the QB situation with a new starter and the QB room having almost no playing experience and also being very young and the anointed QB1 being more known for running they have some similarities there.
People assume that time is a strict progression from cause to effect, but actually from a non-linear, non-subjective viewpoint, it’s more like a big ball of wibbly-wobbly, timey-wimey Wimbush stuff.
Blink and you’re dead. Good luck, domers.
This was such a cool article, thanks for putting in the effort!
If you’re looking for more ideas, some thoughts:
What if kelly hires a different DC after bob diaco, aka no van gorder. Does that lead to the 2016 collapse, or the 2017 resurgence? I’m not even sure who the other candidates were at the time.
Golson plays the 2013 season
The FSU offensive pass interference call doesnt happen.
Regardless, this one was super neat to read!