As COVID-19 cases continue to climb again, athletes are tested, and schools declare intentions for students to return to campus (or not), plans for the college football season change by the day. But for a second, let’s live in a world where football will be played this fall and indulge in some analysis.

The most likely scenario for fall football appears to be predominantly conference-only schedules. The Big Ten and Pac-12 have already announced their plans officially, with most other conferences seemingly destined to follow on in a matter of time. A few exceptions may be made to allow inter-conference rivalry games, such as a “plus one” agreement between the ACC and SEC – but everyone is just making everything up as they go at this point. The simpler the solution at this point, I’m guessing the better chance of survivability, and conference-only is about as simple as it gets (for non-independents).

 

For as much as ND haters frothed at the mouth, hoping that this pandemic would be the perfect chance to force the Irish out of independent status, it appears that is not happening. The ACC has extended its loving arms and assured Jack Swarbrick and company that they will happily provide as many games as needed to fill out the Notre Dame schedule, proving yet again that joining a conference is for suckers.

So let’s run through what a hypothetical all-ACC schedule might look like, with some baseline assumptions:

  • While I’m sure Western Michigan would still love to play Notre Dame if games are being played, 12 games seem unlikely and the Broncos will be the first team to go.
  • If there’s a “plus-one” arrangement, it seems like a slam dunk the Irish prioritize the Navy rivalry over Arkansas. The Razorbacks will happily kick this game down the road to future years when their fans can make the trip to South Bend and they might be more competitive.
  • No one knows how many fans will be in attendance (if any) of these games are played. So for each game, I’ve removed home-field advantage boosts for simplicity (usually 2.5 points in projection for the home team). Most analysis indicates the top driver of home-field advantage is not crowd noise influencing players but its influence on officials, who likely won’t react the same in an empty stadium. While there are still some remaining advantages – primarily not traveling – early Bundesliga data supports the idea home-field advantage may decline if not disappear without fans.

What were we working with before? See below for the SP+ projections of Notre Dame’s pre-pandemic schedule, adjusted temporarily to take out home-field advantage:

Which new teams might Notre Dame play in an ACC-only schedule?

There are a few options in how an ACC-only schedule could pan out – are traditional divisions maintained in some form? If so, how do the Irish fit in there (or not?) In a cash-grab season you could easily see Notre Dame becoming an honorary Coastal division member in the hopes of a potential Clemson rematch in the ACC title game, should such a thing take place. This all also depends on how many games are fit into the schedule – 10 feels like the hope, but 8 may become a more realistic fall-back.

The Irish entered this insane year with six teams already scheduled, three from the Coastal (Pitt, Duke, Georgia Tech) and three Atlantic teams (Wake Forest, Clemson, Louisville). One easy solution, if the Irish became honorary Coastal members in a 10-game schedule, is just to add the other divisional teams – Miami, Virginia Tech, Virginia, and North Carolina. That would generate about as hard of a possible schedule as possible, which … sounds about right for the hand Notre Dame would be dealt.

If divisions are out the window – or out for ND as a weird 15th team for one season – the options are blurrier. Still, you can project if some opponents feel like more likely additions than others based on the ACC rotation and recent games if divisions go out the window.

More Likely Opponents:

  • Miami: a big ratings draw, their AD has already expressed interest, and the Canes aren’t on the ND ACC rotation until 2024.
  • NC State: The Wolfpack would be appealing as the Irish aren’t scheduled to face them again until 2023, and they could use a softer game.
  • Syracuse: the Orange would similarly help to provide some “competitive balance” and the teams don’t meet until 2022.

Less Likely:

  • Virginia Tech: simply, we’ve seen a ton of the Hokies, and they are on the schedule for 2021. If added to this year’s schedule, that would mean Notre Dame will play VT five times in six years.
  • Boston College: the teams squared off last season and in 2017, plus the awkwardness of playing Phil Jurkovec.
  • Florida State: the Noles wouldn’t be shocking because they are another huge draw, but they came to South Bend in 2018 and are scheduled for the 2021 season opener in Tallahassee.
  • UNC: a toss-up here – adding the Tar Heels would mean matchups in three straight years, as Mack Brown’s revitalized crew is on the 2021 and 2022 schedules. But they project as one of the best teams in the league and another ratings draw, so definitely not out of the question.
  • Virginia: another team that would mean three straight years (2019/2020/2021) if added, but then the Hoos wouldn’t be back until 2024.
An all-ACC schedule by the numbers

Let’s give ourselves the mental luxury of imagining there is a 2020 playoff and the Irish are contenders. What’s the impact if we go by our favorite analytical systems? Let’s imagine this goes about the most difficult route possible, adding UNC, Miami, Virginia Tech, and UVA.

At first glance, losing Wisconsin and USC from the schedule feels like a major positive. But SP+ is very high on North Carolina (with virtually identical offensive and defensive ranks to the Trojans) and Miami is super dangerous if D’Eriq King answers their offensive woes. It all depends –  Notre Dame essentially swaps Stanford and Arkansas (both 80+% likely wins) for what could be trickier contests in Virginia and Virginia Tech. Or it could be NC State and Syracuse!

SP+ is just one system though – according to ESPN’s FPI, the Irish are trading the 4th (!) best team in Wisconsin along with #13 (USC), #31 (Stanford), and #59 (Arkansas). In return, they could receive #18 Virginia Tech, #29 UNC, #51 Miami, and #71 Virginia. Some vastly different takes on the quality of the ACC teams there!

I’d lean a bit toward the FPI preseason rankings in this case. While the second-tier games get a bit harder, the biggest priority for an undefeated or one-loss Notre Dame season is minimizing the games against top opponents with similar or superior talent. Wisconsin projects to have an elite defense and should be better than any replacement from the ACC. USC also likely has a higher upside than any of those ACC teams, and poses matchup problems with Kedon Slovis and a cadre of proven blue-chip receiving talent against the likely weak link of the Irish defense at cornerback.

While Mack Brown is undoubtedly doing good things at UNC, the Tar Heels strike me as a discount USC. Both offenses will be excellent, but the Trojans have more depth (doubly important this year if football happens) and far more blue-chip defensive talent. Miami has a fearsome pass rush and King is a nightmare, but there’s more weak links and unknown commodities on that roster in my view than Wisconsin’s.

The combination of Virginia and Virginia Tech seems undoubtedly better than Stanford and Arkansas, but do either of those teams pose a significant threat? The single best unit of those four teams is likely the Hokie defense, but I’m not sure any team has the talent and experience on both sides of the ball to threaten the Irish unless they play their worst.

Would a 10-game ACC slate improve Notre Dame’s playoff chances?

So even in a world where the ACC hands the Irish the hardest 10-game conference slate possible, I lean toward thinking it’s a net positive for Notre Dame (despite what SP+ projects). If the Hokies or UNC or Miami take major leaps forward that could change, but losing two top 15 opponents for teams with more recognizable weaknesses is a major benefit. The undefeated 2018 regular season was built on the strength of a very good team to be sure, but also the lack of top-tier opponents paired with many “pretty good” teams.

As you can see from the visual below, it’s really taking two top-caliber opponents and a couple of the worst teams on the schedule and replacing them with filler that’s somewhere in between. If there was a team to bet on taking the leap from their projections, I’d take Miami, but wouldn’t you still rather play the Canes that went 6-7 last season than Wisconsin or USC?

But for all of the discussion above, the tiebreaker determining the impact on Notre Dame’s playoff chances is likely a potential ACC championship game. I’m not sure anyone would be opposed to this idea, especially if the Irish end up playing a 10-game schedule like every other ACC team. I’m sure ACC fans would largely hate it, but it’s fair and will make more money for everyone involved, and let’s face it, that’s driving most decision-making right now.

The Irish playoff odds significantly decline with a hypothetical ACC title game. Now you’re assuming two games against one of the best teams in the country in a season where two losses are a certain disqualifier. Of course, there’s a world where 1-loss Notre Dame gets that as an opportunity to avenge it’s sole loss to Clemson and make the playoff. But that’s countered by the one where the Irish sprang the upset in the first content but now are forced to do it again. In any underdog situation, playing multiple times is worse for your chances (hence the fun of March Madness versus the NBA playoffs). Fingers crossed that the impact of COVID and the health of the country allow this to be a debate for the next few months.