Welcome back to the 18Stripes G5 Top 10. After a fun little set of games on Saturday we know have games from Wednesday to Monday in the college football world. The Top 10 from last week has not changed but here is the list from last week.
Also Considered: Ball State, San Jose State, Memphis, Marshall, Wyoming, UTSA
Week 0 Recap
The one team I moved up in the Also Considering Category was San Jose State. In the late window Saturday night they made quick work of Southern Utah. Highlighted primarily by the air game and Nick Starkel, the defending Mountain West champions made a point. They were almost certainly always going to win the game, but the way they did essentially anything they wanted reminded me the lack of respect I personally gave them. The respect could not be passed to their fellow Mountain West competitor.
Hawaii, unlike San Jose State, was the opposing end of a beatdown in the Rose Bowl against UCLA. It’s hard to tell what it means for Hawaii only because it’s hard to tell if UCLA is going to make the leap this season or not. In other games, Fresno State took care of UConn on a field that literally was melting cleats. Also UTEP avoided the basement of the FBS with a beatdown in Las Cruces.
Week 1 Preview
Since there are so many different types of games in this Week 1, I’ve created a couple of pods of games to talk about. Let’s dive into all of the action.
Headliners
The first headliner we have is the big matchup of the Top Ten; Boise State heading to the Bounce House. This game feels like one of those early Miami-Florida State games. A non-conference game that has nothing at stake beyond G5 bragging rights. Boise State, if they win this game, can firmly put themselves in the upper tier of G5 and begin their case for a NY6 spot. Hank Bachmeier returns to lead the Broncos offense. If he makes a leap, like many Boise QBs before him, the Broncos could be a team to watch.
UCF on the other hand, seems to be a true wild card. Helping that is the return of Dillion Gabriel at QB and Gus Malzahn taking the reigns after former coach Josh Huepel took the Tennessee job. They appear to be the second best AAC team behind Cincinnati and this could be a way to show how close to the Bearcats they are.
The other major game on tap this weekend is one of the games where both teams are ranked. Louisiana goes into Austin to take on the new look Texas team, led by head coach Steve Sarkisian. Levi Lewis looks to continue the pace the Cajuns set a season prior. Levi Lewis and the UL offense looks to continue its 33.6 points per game pace into their first big non-conference test. They need to shut down pre-season All-American Bijon Robinson at RB. If Robinson’s play looks like his early 2020 rate and not his final couple of games, this should be tight until the end.
Notable Games With Week 0 Slants
Oregon is not UConn. I know this may be a shocking take, but it’s simply not the case. However, there are some seeds of intrigue for the Bulldogs going into their showdown with Oregon. Jake Haener found more success in the air than running the ball. With Oregon’s front seven, I imagine that Fresno State is either going to either; have an absurdly high competition percentage and third down conversion or get into a shootout with the Ducks. I’m not sure which is the case, but the speed of the Bulldog receivers could be an interesting matchup.
Coming into this past weekend, I had UTSA circled on my list of dark horse to make this top ten late in the season. The precipice was that they seemingly were on even terms with Illinois in their first game. With the Illini “upset” of Nebraska at home, those thoughts seem to have been thrown for a loop. Do the Illini have a letdown in their follow-up? Are the Roadrunners prepared for a new QB after Brandon Peters went down early? There are a lot of question marks. I think this game will mark UTSA’s quality going into the rest of their manageable non-conference schedule and C-USA schedule.
As I mentioned in the opening, San Jose State seemed to be the biggest G5 winner of the weekend, showing how their offense seemingly isn’t going to be a one hit wonder. USC definitely has more talent on their team. However, in a constant hot seat situation for Clay Helton, USC needs to not slip up in these games, no matter the context. It is also worth noting that USC was in a one score game in four of their six games, going 3-1 in those contests. I’m not bold enough to make an upset pick, but it wouldn’t shock me if this game is tight after three quarters.
Interesting Power 5 Games
A common occurrence in the sport is Power conference teams hosting Group of 5 schools as a “paycheck game.” As these games have become more commonplace, and more G5 schools have closed the gap in terms of talent, these games provide intrigue. Wins like this can catapult seasons. Every Group of 5 representative in the NY6 since 2015 has a win over a power conference team*, most of those on the road. I’ve listed some notable games against potential upper tier G5 schools vs P5 teams by order of will almost certainly lose to probably win.
*Cincinnati did not last season due the pandemic but I have faith they would have beaten 2020 Nebraska as they were initially scheduled to.
Florida Atlantic, per a SP+ projection, appears to be the front runner for the C-USA East division. Now, I don’t think that there is a chance they knock off Florida in the swamp. But I am personally keeping an eye on them as we get into the C-USA season.
Dustin Crum, QB of Kent State, should be one of the more fun players of the season. With Buffalo losing players during the late coaching cycle, the MAC East is wide open and Kent State should be a player. They are taking on a tough A&M team that returns everything of a QB. I’m interested in seeing how Crum and the offense move the ball.
This one is the one I could be most surprised about. Western Michigan goes into Ann Arbor and the Wolverines have a lot of question marks. Was last season a sign of things to come? Was it an anomaly and Michigan bounces back? The Broncos also lose their best offensive player in D’Wayne Eskridge, so their offense may be a question mark as well. If Western Michigan pulls off the upset it puts them firmly in the MAC West Race with Ball State and Toledo.
The advanced numbers loved Houston last season and somewhat still do this season. I think that Houston is at a fork in the road in the Dana Holgerson era. If the Cougars win this game, there’s a good chance that they will win their next three games before going into Tulsa, putting themselves in a position to make a AAC Championship run.
BYU is the biggest Group of 5 question mark for me. They lost their star QB and #2 NFL Draft Pick Zach Wilson at QB. The pre-season numbers seem to think they will have a decent enough season, but losing their star QB who opened up the offense for them. However, I don’t think that test will be this week as Arizona is in significantly more upheaval and do not have the talent to even them out. They do face Utah and Arizona State in consecutive weeks, which should show more of what BYU is and isn’t.
This game and the final one I think are pretty leaned towards the group of 5 team. Nevada heads to Berkley to start their new season. I think the Cal defense is suspect and that Carson Strong will (excuse my pun) have a strong start to his season.
Syracuse’s has been a sinking ship since a certain school knocked them off in Yankee Stadium in 2018. Ohio may have lost Frank Solich recently but I think that they should compete well with Syracuse, especially playing this game in their building.
Top Teams Roundup
While most games appear to be G5 vs P5 we still have some of our heavy hitters in action this weekend in inter-G5 action.
Our top team of the season starts with a showcase at home against a game Miami (OH). This game, combined with their contest against Murray State, appear to be warmups for their Indiana road trip later in the month.
In a rarity, two G5 teams will be playing in a neutral site contest. App State and East Carolina will converge in Charlotte. East Carolina looks to put themselves on the upswing into the upper tier of the American while App State looks to try and re-establish itself as a Sun Belt player. I think they are the dark horse of the conference and a NY6 contender and this could be the start of that run.
Marshall is in an interesting situation. They should beat Navy this weekend. However, as mentioned earlier, they could be in an interesting situation in the conference. I am keeping an eye on the Thundering Herd and see how they rebound after a promising 2020 that was derailed over the end of the season.
After Georgia State hosted Gameday (so to speak) on Saturday, they will host Army this week. The Panthers only lost to App State, Louisiana, and Coastal. They took the Cajuns to OT and held App State close. I think they could be a potential chaos agent in the Sun Belt, which has many different contenders for big time bowls.
Finally the below teams will be playing FCS teams this weekend, all of which should be easy wins for the home team:
- UAB vs Jacksonville State
- Coastal Carolina vs The Citadel
- Ball State vs Western Illinois
- Wyoming vs Montana St
- Memphis vs Nicholls
- Toledo vs Norfolk St
That’s all I have for you all this week! I hope you enjoy the games and enjoy the long weekend!
How many G5 teams will make tomorrow’s 18S Top 20 Poll and will it match PJ’s rankings???
Wait to find out!
I’m really interested to see what Dillon Gabriel does this year. Gus Malzahn has a mixed history with QB development, but Gabriel is a legit All-American candidate this year. There are few QBs who push the ball down the field better than he does. His only real weakness is occasional accuracy concerns, but that tended to be because he was throwing the ball downfield and making sure only his receivers, not the defenders, could make the catch.
If he gets even slightly more accurate on ball placement, that offense has sky high potential. He’s too small to be a future first round pick, but I think he’s going to make some NFL team consider him fairly early in the draft.