Most of the time polls are either super fun to put together or they are a complete slog, there’s rarely an in between. I started putting this poll together in mid-July full of verve and confidence and as we entered August those doubts started creeping into my head. This team is overrated, that team isn’t talked about enough, this team has a schedule that is way too difficult. Polling is so damn hard sometimes. I love it but understand why a lot of people hate it. Or, maybe love-hate it.
How do I base my pre-season rankings? I go by how I believe the team’s will finish at the end of the season. For example, I might think Team A is better but if their schedule is super hard Team B could be placed ahead of them. See how it works?
18 Stripes Top 20 Poll
| RANK | TEAM | RECORD | NEXT |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clemson | 0-0 | vs. Georgia |
| 2 | Alabama | 0-0 | vs. Miami |
| 3 | Oklahoma | 0-0 | at Tulane |
| 4 | Ohio State | 0-0 | vs. Oregon |
| 5 | Georgia | 0-0 | vs. Clemson |
| 6 | Iowa State | 0-0 | vs. N. Iowa |
| 7 | Notre Dame | 0-0 | at Florida State |
| 8 | Washington | 0-0 | vs. Montana |
| 9 | Cincinnati | 0-0 | vs. Miami OH |
| 10 | North Carolina | 0-0 | at Virginia Tech |
| 11 | Coastal Carolina | 0-0 | vs. Citadel |
| 12 | Wisconsin | 0-0 | vs. Penn State |
| 13 | USC | 0-0 | vs. San Jose State |
| 14 | Indiana | 0-0 | at Iowa |
| 15 | Utah | 0-0 | vs. Weber State |
| 16 | Texas A&M | 0-0 | vs. Kent State |
| 17 | Florida | 0-0 | vs. Florida Atlantic |
| 18 | TCU | 0-0 | vs. Duquesne |
| 19 | Arizona State | 0-0 | UNLV |
| 20 | UCF | 0-0 | vs. Boise State |
Best of the Rest
The Top Unranked Tier
Iowa – Agents of chaos ready for 2021 (see below).
Miami – Could crumble in week 1 and look out for a week 2 upset!
Oregon – Road trips to OSU, Washington & Utah this year, yikes.
The Next Tier
Louisiana – A good shot to be ranked after this weekend.
Penn State – Extremely challenging September & October will be a big test.
Ole Miss – It’s possible they out-score everyone for a surprising SEC West finish.
LSU – The injury to Brennan could derail their season.
The Final Tier
Liberty – Malik Willis will be in the spotlight but their independent schedule won’t.
Auburn – Perhaps some good value in the Harsin/Nix duo blossoming quickly.
Texas – Lack of a proven QB has to keep the Horns unranked for now.
Oklahoma State – Spencer Sanders could take this Cowboys offense up a few notches.
***
These teams lost a lot of players from 2020 and are experiencing massive turnover: Florida, Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson, Oregon, Texas, and Notre Dame. In a year where a huge swath of teams bring back a lot of veterans it’s interesting to see how blue-blood-y the teams that lost a lot are heading into 2021. These teams are bringing back a lot of players from 2020: LSU, Indiana, Miami, Washington, Iowa State, TCU, Louisiana, and Coastal Carolina.
I feel good (about as good as these things can get during the pre-season) about the top 6 in my rankings, although again there are 3 elite blue-bloods (Bama, OSU, Clemson) who have to re-load a ton during a year when due to Covid many teams are bringing back a lot of experience. They absolutely get the benefit of the doubt from me.
I know, Iowa State this high may not feel justified but they have a ton of high-impact guys coming back and a very manageable schedule. They’ll get to host Iowa on week 2 and shouldn’t be challenged well into late October with a trip to Norman coming in the second-to-last week of the season.
Teams 7 through 14 you could rank any way you’d like in any order and I’d be okay with it. I put the Irish atop of this group because I’m a massive homer and more precisely I think it’s okay to give this program the benefit of the doubt to be able to rebuild competently. Plus, Liufau injury aside this has looked like a promising August for Notre Dame.
Five out of those teams in the 7-13 range are either Notre Dame or a team Notre Dame plays. Will there be massive carnage between these teams? Cincinnati and North Carolina have the clear easier schedules while the Irish, Badgers, and Trojans face similarly rated tougher schedules.
***
Teams to Sell
C: Coaches Poll
AP: Associated Press Poll
18S: 18 Stripes Poll
Texas A&M (C: 6, AP: 6, 18S: 16)
Florida (C: 11, AP: 13, 18S : 17)
Oregon (C: 12, AP: 11, 18S: NR)
LSU (C: 13, AP: 16, 18S: NR)
Miami (C: 16, AP: 14, 18S: NR)
The Aggies have so many questions at offense line and quarterback that it seems crazy to be including them in the National Title picture. Nevertheless, their defense will be very, very good and the SEC West feels a lot more wide open (including Alabama re-loading heavily and maybe just maybe this is the year they really stumble).
Florida has to replace a bunch of key pieces on both sides of the ball and faces Alabama and LSU in cross-division matchups. I’m betting this is much more of a rebuild situation with at least 3 losses.
I’d have no problem with Oregon being the Pac-12 favorite if they had a reliable quarterback. The fact that they’re probably one of the top 6 or 7 most talented teams with so much experience coming back and not in the top 10 is pretty telling to me. I can see Jay Butterfield or Ty Thompson taking over that job later in the season and the Ducks becoming a really dangerous team, though.
LSU is so much like Oregon, except they’re in the SEC West and their quarterback was injured for the season.
The fact that the major polls average just 15th for Miami when they showed flashes of being quite good last year, almost everyone came back, and quarterback D’Eriq King is healthy just proves the country shares a natural skepticism of the Canes. We just have more skepticism than most.
Teams to Buy
Clemson (C: 2, AP: 3, 18S: 1)
Washington (C: 21, AP: 20, 18S: 8)
Coastal Carolina (C: 24, AP: 22, 18S: 11)
Utah (C: 26, AP: 24, 18S: 15)
Arizona State (C: 28, AP: 25, 18S: 19)
All in on Clemson this season with D.J. Uiagalelei becoming the 18th player (and 3rd straight season) to win the Heisman and National Championship in the same season.
We’ve only witnessed 4 games from Jimmy Lake at Washington, so some suspicion may be warranted. Still, they have an excellent core (just as good as Oregon), face the Ducks at home, have an overall very manageable schedule, should have the best defense in the conference, and have some options at quarterback to figure out a good offense.
How will the Chanticleers not be fun as hell again? Everyone is back, they held on to head coach Jamey Chadwell, and should be favored in every game except maybe that pesky trip to Appalachian State.
America is always sleeping on Utah, myself included. Not this year! I feel like if you’re selling Oregon and USC to a degree you have to pick someone else in the conference. I’ve got Washington and now Utah who could surprise a lot of folks with Baylor transfer Charlie Brewer at quarterback.
This is a lot of love for the Pac-12, which is downright frightening. I’ve stumped for dark horse Heisman candidate Jayden Daniels so put some faith on that. There are road trips to BYU, Utah, and Washington plus USC at home from an otherwise very friendly schedule.
The Chaos Team: Iowa
I was going to include the Hawkeyes in the buy category (18th in the AP) but decided to create a category all for themselves. It’s Iowa, so let’s not get carried away with the hype. They do look like an extremely Iowa-y team this year with a very good defense and all-around solid team.
They open with Indiana (see below) and could blow up the Hoosiers positive vibes by the time Saturday night is complete. They’re also a solid candidate to win the Big Ten West–and if you’re feeling frisky that Ohio State will be down a little bit–a team that could win the whole conference. Mostly, their week 2 game at Iowa State feels so, so, so big on a national scale that hasn’t been witnessed in the Cy-Hawk Trophy series in many years. The Cyclones have lost 5 straight in the series and my goodness you have to think Matt Campbell wants at least 1 victory over Iowa.
Week 1 Games to Watch
THURSDAY
Boise State [+5] at UCF
A pair of new coaching staff’s and a really tough spot for Boise to cross the country and open the season. Knights win and cover 32-17.
Ohio State [-13.5] at Minnesota
The Big Ten media have Minnesota finishing 4th in their division but I think they’ll surprise based on those expectations and easily finish no worse than third. They’ll put up a good fight against a young Ohio State defense. Buckeyes win but don’t cover 29-20.
FRIDAY
North Carolina [-5.5] at Virginia Tech
If you want to fade UNC this year here’s a good opportunity to pick up some of that stock. A lot of people like the Hokies to make some noise this year, although not me. Tar Heels win and cover 41-24.
SATURDAY
Penn State [+4.5] at Wisconsin
Two Big Ten schools who had absolute nightmare Covid seasons in 2020. Let’s pit them together in the opener at Noon inside Camp Randall! I don’t have a good handle on this Nittany Lions team although many are expecting them to improve a ton. I think Wisconsin improves more. Badgers win but don’t cover 24-21.
Alabama [-18.5] vs. Miami (Atlanta, GA)
Miami played 2 good teams last year and lost by a combined 61 points. Alabama has been so, so good in these premier season openers and should bottle up D’Eriq King. Crimson Tide win and cover 39-17.
Indiana [+3.5] at Iowa
Can I pick against the chaos team in week 1, though? You bet, the Hawkeyes have some important business in week 2 that could be a look-ahead issue for them. Let’s predict a late Ty Fryfogle touchdown wins it for Indiana. Hoosiers win and cover 30-26.
Louisiana [+9] at Texas
Everyone has this one on upset watch and you can already see the early 2nd quarter Tweets spilling out mocking Texas for being back. This should be very scary for 4 quarters but I like Texas to hang on. Longhorns win but don’t cover 33-27.
Georgia [+3] vs. Clemson (Charlotte, NC)
I have Clemson winning it all, quarterback DJU taking home the Heisman, and these things can’t happen without a win in their biggest regular season game. I think we’ll see a bit of a shocking result here. Tigers win and cover 39-17.
LSU [-3] at UCLA
UCLA has already opened their season last weekend with an easy 44-10 win over visiting Hawaii. The Bruins have felt extremely off the radar during the Chip Kelly era and should play really loose with a game under their belt and frankly nothing to lose. Upset alert, and Ed Orgeron hot seat engaged. Bruins win and cover 23-21.
Anybody down on Ohio State might be crazy. They have 6 WRs who would easily be ND’s #1 or at worst #2 option. 4 guys who were top 30 overall recruits, 1 guy who was a top 100 recruit and is the son of Marvin Harrison, and the other guy is likely going to be a top 20 or better pick in the NFL draft. I would put 50/50 odds on them scoring at least 35 points in every game this year.
Who will be the crappy team that Iowa State inevitably loses to this year, where everyone just ignores the loss and continues to think ISU is good? The schedule is just so soft this year, with all of their challenging games at home except Oklahoma. I’m gonna guess Kansas State beats them like 19-16 or something.
I feel like Dan Mullen has had Florida in a weird place the whole time he’s been there, where everybody knows they’re good, but they can’t quite knock off the top teams. They have the talent to make the jump this year, but I don’t think they ever get there until Todd Grantham is gone.
Sadly my team that everybody has high hopes for that I think will disappoint is IU. They played so many weird games last year. I just don’t know how that can continue to work out for them. I hope I’m wrong, as I loved watching them, but I think they’re going to crash back down to earth this year.
Who was the crappy team that Iowa State lost to last season? Their losses were to a 10-1 Louisana, an 8-3 OK St (ranked 6th at time of the game) and to Oklahoma in the Big 12 championship (who Iowa State beat in the regular season). They won a NY6 game against Oregon, as well.
You’d never guess Iowa State finished the season ranked 9th last year based on the 18S comment section. Really bizarre bias against them for whatever reason.
Matt Campbell historically great at Iowa State but it’s no big deal, I guess!
Historically Great ISU – but we are comparing them to historical ISU. That is nearly the definition of a low bar.
If you apply the same logic that we apply to ND football, they are still average. How do they do in their rivalry games (Iowa/UK/Missouri)?
They are trending well above their long term average with Matt Campbell. He might be a good coach. He might be DGT, but ISU is Triple-A ball.
To be above average:
Do they consistently win the games they are supposed to win?
Do they get some upsets against actual good teams?
No? Then they are just a string of good ISU teams.
Does the #6 ranking make sense? By EM’s logic, sure. Easy sked, probably more decent than those teams on the sked, but objectively great?
I may be wrong, I am not too deeply informed on ISU, just opinionated. However, as the season rankings become more resume based, #6 will probably not be tenable.
Well…
What else are we supposed to do? Stick Iowa State in the NFC North?
I’m not absolutely in love with Campbell, but come on. He’s elevated that program in every single way. Sure, there’s a ceiling but they could be very good (again).
or we could continue to not GAS about ISU or some other historically mediocre to bad program.
What’s next, gushing on UMass. I hear this years team has some maturity. Any other perennial mid/lower tier teams we want to discuss as the team gears up for FSU? UConn, maybe – I am hearing good news about that up-and-coming coach Randy Edsall. Same story, different state with that mastermind Harbaugh.
Just put down the spoon and the jar of hot take. The closest they are to hanging around #6 anywhere is the old dying man Big 12.
Be truthful, historically great ISU is meh, and no one truly cares about ISU unless they show back up on our slate.
Pretty fiery for someone that doesn’t GAS. Iowa State, btw, is ranked 7th and 8th respectively in the opening AP and coaches poll. It’s not really *that* hot of a take to acknowledge that they have a strong team these days. In fact, this year will probably be their apex with the 5th year star QB and a lot of returners.
This is truthfully one of the most bizarre comments in 18 Stripes history!
How can anyone be this triggered and upset about Iowa State? Holy hell, what did the Cyclones do you!??
I’m fine talking about ISU:
Compared to ND:
I think I can say all nice things about ISU while still not believing they’re a better team than Notre Dame. Plus I like the new guy, Stanford’s difficulties entertain me greatly. Stupid trees.
IOWAN Here – gotta stand up for our corn production:
Additionally, our pork production is second-to-none:
I get that it’s nearly impossible to separate pork/corn/football, which is probably why ISU and
I’m surprised Missouri is so close to Ohio in corn production, but at least I got Indiana at 5th correct. You’d think coming in third would humble Nebraskan’s a little.
At this point, Nebraska should be thrilled with 3rd in anything.
I was going to mention how Nebraska is wildly overrated at corning (is that the industry term?).
To be fair to Nebraska, they only promote their huskering of corn, not in the actual corning arena.
Third in corn production, third in our hearts, sixth in the Big Ten West
What the hell is 18s devolving into?? KPI around corn and pork?
KPI = K(orn) P(ork) (Busch L)I(ight)
But is the comment ELITE?
I think it’s hilarious. Rock on with the spite! Who cares why? It’s sports hate, it doesn’t have to be reasonable
“Tree Hating” + bashing on Cyclones? Lots of dislike of nature. Who is this guy, Werner Herzog?
Same reason why the Irish wouldn’t get much respect on a Bama board despite all the good things we’ve done. A bowl beat down gives many a fan keyboard courage. That said Iowa State doesn’t have top end talent, does tend to drop 1-2 bad games a year, and can’t beat Iowa, I get the doubt .
Glad I’m not crazy in picking up on that. I get it, we trounced Iowa State a couple years ago in the bowl game, but the continued negativity towards them and Matt Campbell here (and ND sites broadly) baffles me.
Unless Clark Lea does truly amazing things at Vandy, Matt Campbell should be *way* ahead of him in the potential ND future coach rankings. It’s just that Michigan will probably get their shot to hire him first.
What would ND fan reaction be if we lost to a Sun Belt team? What would National reaction be? We sure as hell wouldn’t be ranked top 10 entering this season.
So Louisana is a bad team because they’re in the Sun Belt?
If Notre Dame ended a season by winning a NY6 game and returned a 5th year SR QB, they 10000000% would be ranked in the top-10 the following season.
We got blown out by Michigan in 2019 and opened up 10th in AP the following year. Is that all that different?
Because this cannot be stressed enough. Louisiana is ranked higher than Michigan (as is every team that is ranked).
Ha well one was a P5 top 20 team that had legitimately good, highly rated players on its roster. One is a G5 top 20 team with a single four-star recruit on its roster. (Also gotta give ND the “BK can’t coach in the rain” benefit of the doubt).
Ugh can’t believe I just said something semi-positive about Michigan. I’m gonna stop talking about Iowa State here for the rest of the season now so this doesn’t happen again.
Well we might get to see that hypothetical with Texas this year!
Heh wait are you saying this ISN’T the year that Texas is going to finally be back, again?
Oh wow, I didnt realize those were their losses last season. The only ISU game I’ve seen in its entirety was the bowl game against ND 2 years ago, but this team sounds like they’re worth a watch! So long as they maintain status quo vs the Irish should we meet in the postseason or NY6, I’m all in on the cyclones! Its just neat to see someone making strides to unseat OU in the medium 12.
The only problem I have is with the methodology. In any given season, it’s far too hard to tell before it begins which team has a tough schedule and who doesn’t. Therefore, if I were to do a poll my criteria would be “who would beat whom” on a neutral site. Clem and Bama have proven themselves as the ultimate teams in that regard. Follow them by some combination of tOSU/ND/OU and then go from there. Iowa State is absolutely not a T10 team because I can name 10 teams that I think would easily beat them.
But your methodology doesn’t even consider UGA a top 12 team?
I’m really looking forward to the ND Cincinnati game. I have no clue how to judge Cincy. They looked legit last year, but they played so few teams with legitimately explosive athletes. I would probably slot them right where you have them now, but they could easily make a case this year to move up around that top 5, or drop down closer to 15. Out of all of the teams in the top 25, they are the one that I have the least amount of clarity on.
Hah, guess they slipped my mind. Throw them in 6 and move everyone else down
ND has 33 players on their team ranked as higher recruits than the highest ranked recruit on ISU and this is after ND had 6 players selected in the 2021 NFL draft before the only ISU player selected. Over the last four years the Irish have won 43 games to ISU’s 32.
Why do I think ND is better than ISU? Because ND gets better players in. Sends better players out. And wins more football games.
What this should be called is a prediction of the final polls. Polls should be separated into Prediction of Accomplishments vs How Good Are They. As E mentions, people combine them, which creates a weird recursive mess.
You want the real 25 best teams at any given time? It’s the lowest 25 Vegas spreads against Alabama at a neutral site.* Those are the actual best 25 teams. Not the most deserving, or the most likely to be in the playoff, just simply the best coached and most talented teams.
The playoff committee picks the most deserving team, based on the outcome of the season. Fortunately, they ignore the polls that have an inherent inaccuracy (iterating on a prediction of how that iteration will end).
This may seem like a strange reply to your comment, but it is basically that I agree with you. In my mind ND is unquestionably a much better team than ISU. We have the better coach, and probably 25-30 out of the top 40 players between both teams, would win 6-7 out of 10 against them, and would easily be the favorite in a neutral site game.
BUT
ISU will probably win more games and will have a decent chance at having the better win, so a better season. This would warrant a higher playoff ranking, which I would have no problem with. But that should be entirely different than a placement in a poll. Which I believe should just reflect who the best teams are (even if it is sickeningly filled with the SEC), which would more closely resemble Clearwall’s poll.
*Sadly I don’t think Vegas does this for us. If they did it would look wildly different than championship odds, which this poll more closely reflects.
And after all that rambling, my pre-season poll would look like this:
Tier 1: Bama, Clemson
Tier 2: tOSU
Tier 3: ND, OU, UF, aTm, UGA, UC
Tier 4: UNC, ISU, Oregon, Wisc, Wash, USC, LSU, Iowa, Miami, PSU, CC, Utah, Louisiana, maybe more.
…
Tier 120: Michigan
With teams in any tier being in no particular order. Because no one can determine the 12th vs 13th best team.
A little charitable with that tier 120 ranking… are you in ann arbor pocketbooks?!?!?!
Honestly, I can’t remember how many FBS teams there are anymore. I would probably only make about 10 total tiers.
1: The best. 2: not as good as 1, but clearly better than everyone else. 3: really good football teams, competing for the 4th playoff spot. 4: Good football teams competing for NY6 bowls. 5: Just good old fashioned good football teams. 6: mediocre teams. 7: below average teams but show some spunk or are on the rise. 8: Bad teams. 9: really really bad teams. 10: Michigan.
Fair.