I have good news! After re-watching the game against Toledo I came away a little surprised and not quite as disgusted with the offensive line than I originally thought watching live. I also have bad news. As I’ll explain, I don’t think the ceiling for this offensive line is that high at all. Maybe that’s good news insofar as there’s a chance this line raises its floor a little bit and the offense as a whole can function a lot better.
Does that seem absurd right now? Read ahead and see what you think. While focusing on the Toledo game I have 5 areas to discuss:
#1 The Talent Level is Not Good
The ceiling for this offensive line is limited, and now with the injuries and lack of experience at left tackle, perhaps even very limited. Right now for 2021 the talent level is not very good for Notre Dame’s standards.
I suspect this lack of talent will be a major talking point for many Irish fans but realize this piece isn’t meant to dive deep into the ‘why’ and instead provide examples of ‘how’ the line is struggling. But, if you want a quick reason why we’re in this place it isn’t all that complicated:
The entire 2017 class could’ve come back this year, including Aaron Banks at left tackle. Okay, maybe not realistic as Banks and Hainsey were drafted higher than most expected. Josh Lugg, who should be the next anchor at left tackle, has proven not to excel enough at that spot while a possible starting guard in Dillan Gibbons transferred. We’ve known the final Heistand 2018 class was a disaster with 3 of the 4 recruits long gone now. The 2019 class lost 1 of its 4 recruits, while 2 players in particular (Carroll & Kritsofic) have not met expectations, and your top 2 left tackles from the 2020-21 classes are now injured.
Here’s how I’d rate the talent of the current group who have played in 2021:
LT Blake Fisher: TBD due to injury but should be excellent soon.
LT Michael Carmody: Average right now with decent potential.
LT Tosh Baker: Struggles to pass block, decent run blocker.
LG Zeke Correll: Lack of size isn’t being made up in other ways.
C Jarrett Patterson: Very good center.
RG Cain Madden: Disappointing, not meeting lofty expectations from Marshall.
RT Josh Lugg: Average to above average Power 5 tackle.
Even if we want to blame coaching, scheme, and play-calling the reality is even with improvements in all 3 areas I’m not sure there’s room for tremendous growth with this group. At this moment, it seems like they’ve missed on some evaluations (getting nothing from Carroll and Kristofic as the 3rd and 5th highest recruits in their class who are now redshirt sophomores is brutal) and that’s only compounded by injuries.
#2 Athleticism is Missing
Maybe the biggest flaw that jumps out to me is the lack of athleticism from this group which is exacerbated by the fact that the guards are under-sized and should be at least moving extremely well. You also have injury issues at left tackle and a pretty stiff and lumbering right tackle who appears not even in the discussion to switch spots.
As a result, the blocking at the second level is non-existent.
There are free defenders crashing down all over the place with consistency making it so difficult for Notre Dame to run the ball. Let’s take a look at this play from the 1st quarter:
Toledo’s 3 linebacker plus a late arriving safety are all effectively not touched. Right guard Madden pulls along with tight end Michael Mayer and both wave their arms at defenders, allowing someone who should be blocked to take out the ball carriers legs. This is a difficult run given Toledo’s aggressiveness (look at the screen open to Lenzy at the bottom of the screen!) but non-blocks on pulling definitely dooms it from the start. The running back doesn’t have a clean hole to run through making it easy to be chased down from behind, too.
Later in the first quarter we have a run that looks promising at first.
Left guard Correll (3) picks up a blitzing linebacker but only pushes him towards Kyren Williams with the ball. Both right tackle Lugg (1) and guard Madden (2) get their feet stuck without getting a hat on the players in front of them. Williams proceeds to get taken down for a loss of yardage.
Picking up 2nd-level defenders isn’t always about athleticism–communication and smarts are important too. Check out this snap from late in the 1st half with 3rd-string left tackle Tosh Baker now in the game.
Toledo rushes 4 and it’s easily picked up by the Irish. However, no one picks up the late-arriving blitzing linebacker. Patterson and Madden (circled) are working on a double-team and as the linebacker comes up the middle, Madden turns to his right to check on Lugg who was fine. Running back Williams could maybe help but he immediately goes toward Baker while Coan waits 3.3 seconds before ducking down for the sack.
#3 Run Blocking Likely Not Getting Better
Notre Dame has had lines in the past that can bully 90% of the opponents it faces. The 2021 line does not look like one of those lines. It’ll be best to avoid situations where you feel like you have to run the ball or constantly test the weakness of the team in this area.
This is an offense that should be throwing the ball, a lot it seems. Take a look at this run play from early in the 2nd half:
Baker and Correll go with cut blocks and Patterson does a good job driving his man off the ball. However, Lugg loses outside leverage and Madden gets driven back 4 yards directly into the path of the ball carrier. These horizontal outside runs have not been working out very well in 2021 for the Irish.
Neither have running into extremely loaded boxes. Let’s review the 4th & 1 attempt from late in the 2nd quarter:
Nine defenders in the box against 7 blockers with a quarterback under center. It’s a simple hand-off up the middle and what would you expect? That’s right, a linebacker came in completely free and tripped up Tyree for no gain. With Coan’s size, I’m surprised we haven’t seen more quarterback sneaks in these situations yet.
In Larz’ recent films post he mentioned the lack of spacing on offense. Later in the 3rd quarter the Irish are trailing and have a first down from the 25 after a nice 11-yard run. With a good offensive line, I say sure go ahead and try to run on a 8 vs. 8 situation in the box.
Without a good offensive line, I can’t take my eyes off Kevin Austin at the top of the screen with acres of space. I mean, the success rate of throwing any type of quick pass to Austin seems incredibly higher than what Notre Dame could achieve on the ground. Instead, Notre Dame tries to block their way through this and the defensive back on the bottom of the screen flies down unobstructed to pop Tyree right at the line of scrimmage.
#4 There’s Hope for Pass Blocking
The Irish gave up 6 sacks against Toledo, however, that’s not all on the offensive line. Three of those were legit sacks but the 3 others included: A corner blitz not picked up by the running back, a miscommunication between Patterson and Madden (see above) unlikely to be a long-term problem, and a really close (probably) offsides that wasn’t called.
Coan was hit real early in the game on a slow developing wheel route to Mayer that was completed.
The line does a good job but right at the yellow arrow is where Carmody’s man had twisted back around him and would eventually get a hit on the quarterback.
Carmody would give up a sack later in the 1st quarter:
It’s not great that Carmody is walked back quite a bit but he does appear to slip late (curious about the status of his ankle at this point that would later take him out of the game) and Coan goes down way, way too easy.
Coming in shortly before halftime, Tosh Baker would eventually give up a pair of sacks as well. One of those was the aforementioned possible offsides that wasn’t called (even Drew Brees seemed to chuckle at the no-call) and the other was a tough 3rd and very long situation early in the 3rd quarter.
Obviously, this is a situation where a defense can pin its ears back and that’s bad news against a 3rd string tackle. We saw these issues arise for Baker during the spring game where his poor footwork leaves him susceptible to inside moves but especially speed moves to the outside. He got beaten very badly on this play.
#5 The Entire Offense Has to Help
By now, most realize things aren’t going to be great due to a lack of talent and experience at left tackle but there are ways to help stabilize the situation into something far more manageable.
We’ve seen the impact of free defenders bothering the run game and prior to quarterback Tyler Buchner coming in we saw Toledo crashing hard off the edge with little worry about contain of the quarterback keeper.
On this play, the defensive end crashes without hesitation leaving a huge hole (well, the entire wide side of the field!) for Coan to keep the ball. However, Kyren takes the ball and gets about 5 steps in before being tackled for a 3-yard loss.
The offense has to start cleaning things up overall. Late in the 1st quarter the Irish run play-action with 3 wideouts and Michael Mayer flexed out in the slot. The Toledo line shifts towards the boundary-side before the snap so that a defensive tackle is no longer lined up directly across left guard Zeke Correll.
At the snap, Correll double-teams that tackle (right yellow arrow) with center Patterson but a blitzing linebacker (left yellow arrow) runs right through the line just a few steps away from the mesh point between Coan and Williams. As such, Williams can only wave his arm at the linebacker he’s on top of him so quickly and Coan hurries a pretty dangerous throw to Mayer while being hit.
Early in the second half, the Irish run a tricky little play motioning slot receiver Avery Davis and pulling Correl and the tight end towards the boundary-side as if running a jet sweep. However, Coan turns and gives the ball to running back Tyree instead to the field side.
The Toledo defenders to the field-side are not fooled and crash hard against Tyree. The result is a loss of 5 yards.
Is it possible more tight ends will help things? Let’s take a look at a 2-tight end set from the second half on 2nd & 10 from the Toledo 37-yard line.
We continue to see the same types of problems, namely Madden and Patterson doubling an interior tackle while a linebacker flows untouched towards the ball. Meanwhile, George Takacs gets beaten so badly that he’s dragged across the line as his man makes the tackle. I should mention, Larz also covered the Kyren fumble in his films post and I’ll note Takacs doesn’t block terribly but it’s his man who twists off and pokes the ball out of Kyren’s arms.
What Now?
After a thorough re-watch of the Toledo game I feel much better about the pass blocking for a few reasons. One, it’s traditionally been a strength for Notre Dame. Two, all of the players from the left guard to right tackle are decent enough to good pass blockers with enough experience. Three, I feel a little better about Tommy Rees & Co. tweaking the play-calling and personnel to protect the offense from giving up drive-killing sacks and pressures.
I also feel okay about the line as a whole getting better in pass blocking as they play more together.
The situation at left tackle does seem precarious. Hopefully the rumors are true that Carmody’s ankle has responded well and he’ll be healthy enough for Purdue on Saturday. If so, I think it’s possible a quality pass-blocking performance can be made.
I just don’t see it with this group and being able to run the ball very effectively, though. From talent, size, athleticism, and an immobile quarterback I’d recommend not wasting too much time trying to hammer a square peg in a round hole. It’d be unfair to ask this line to blow guys off the ball, get to second-level blocks, and dominate in situations where defenses are expecting the run. They need to start doing very basic things well again and go from there.
I probably wouldn’t bother playing many tight ends outside of Mayer, keep things spread out, simplify blocking assignments, mix in Buchner as a running threat, but above all else continue getting the ball out quickly from Coan’s hands and make opponents pay for being so aggressive crashing players down hill. At some point, opponents will adjust themselves but in the case of Toledo you can’t let a team like that flow so freely into the box without making them pay via someone like Kevin Austin and his talent at receiver.
18S Film Room double-shot!
Great stuff Eric!
Wow, what a flip from last year!
Thanks for these great write ups, I really geek out on the x’s and o’s
In assessing their strengths and weaknesses, what about:
Gun, 4 wide, but WIDE, a la art Briles at Baylor offense.
2 wrs, lenzy and austin, 1te mayer, and tyree as the slot comprising the 4 wide players
William’s as the single back.
Run read option inside with flare screens, and verticals from the wideouts, just double down on spread ball, and force the defense to tip their hat to pressure.
Maybe the game has changed too much since those RG3 Baylor squads, but the bears were consistently making top 3 offenses with a pretty straightforward scheme. Not saying we’d be top 3, but hell any improvement from this point, it just doesnt seem like theres enough harmony for a pro style attack
I like it!
I think it’s hard to compare RG3 to Coan. Like at all.
I remember play #5 above and being really surprised that Coan didn’t keep it. He doesn’t have to break off a 20 yard run there, just 5-8 to keep the defense honest. If Coan can’t keep the ball on that play, time to just give up pretending it’s a read option. I think that him just keeping the ball 3-4 times/game could help tremendously.
Is Tyree good enough to consistently put in the slot over Davis?
There wasnt a comparison between coan and RG3, more a reference in time to an offensive system.
Granted, jack isnt a major threat on read option keeps, but a wide spread moves defenders father from the box, clarifying the pre snap front. Even a 4 yard keeper would be enough to stay on schedule. Yes, RG3 won a heisman and made that offense hyper-drive, but at this point, serviceable is a more realistic expectation for the irish offense. Really, mitigating the oline while trying to maximize the skill talent which is ND’s true strength this season is paramount, and I think that old Baylor system would make it happen.
With regards to the avery Davis vs chris tyree question: which would you rather have in a wide slot catching a pass at 0 yards gunning for YAC? My answer is tyree, not to diminish Davis’ role, but it’s less of a “who’s the better slot receiver” question and more “who is the more dynamic playmaker” question. Easy route, catch the ball, do athletic people stuff afterwards, and I think that recipe can transition him out wide more. It also keeps notre dame in a 21 personnel package (albeit, lined up in a formation more geared towards 10 personnel), which, given the depleted wr room depth, is the most flexible right now.
Very interesting analysis. Gotta believe the turmoil of having two different LT’s get hurt in the first two games, leading to two replacements coming in cold and dry can’t help things at all. That’s easy to understand but feels bad seeing Baker getting burnt, but hopefully after a week of practice and knowing he’s “the guy”, he can raise his performance a little.
I think it was Fortuna saying that Tommy Rees said Baker can be very good when focused, but also isn’t as good in practice when he isn’t engaged…Luckily now he has lots of reasons to focus!
I’d also be very impressed with Kelly/Rees if they actually do more or less “abandon” the power run mentality. Even last week Kelly was vowing they would be fixing the run game and definitely making moving the ball on the ground a huge priority for this offense. If they’re self-aware enough and flexible enough to realize that’s not in this line’s DNA and move on the fly to more of a passing-based attack than what they thought a few weeks ago, that would be just as gutsy as any call they’ve made.
Yeah, let’s hope the focus is there for Baker. His stock from mid-spring to now has been quite the tumble.
The guards just look so unathletic. I’m not sure how this zone blocking scheme can work with these guys.
Small and unathletic is a frightening combo.
My ears are burning
Man, really a good question why those look passes wouldn’t be available.
It’s still been surprising how few seams and slants we’ve seen – things that would punish LBs for being so aggressive. I know those weren’t Book’s strong suit (short, hesitant to pull the trigger), but isn’t that what Coan’s supposed to be offering?
The pessimistic view is that if those aren’t in the playbook already, they’re likely not coming.
Would also like to see the resurrection of that early BK quick toss (the cierre wood/george atkinson one). Anything to get the RBs vertical. You could mix a seam to Mayer into that (playside or backside) and essentially have a quasi-RPO
I do love the quick toss, not going to lie.
Let’s dig into the WHY we got to this point.
It doesn’t seem like it’s recruiting, we are still landing highly coveted/ranked prospects. Winning recruiting battles doesn’t seem to be a major issue for Quinn.
Maybe development, but that 2017 class mostly worked with Quinn, and developed quite well. Or did they (and Eichenberg/Kraemer) plateau after Heistand left, and were just already excellent? Patterson also continues to look great (especially in the gifs above where everyone else is sucking).
Having a bunch of 4 star unathletic guys seems to me that it’s more of a scouting/evaluation thing. Fisher and Spindler were top 50ish players, so not particularly hard to evaluate, but seems like somewhat/major whiffs on Correll, Carroll, Kristofic, and Olmstead (top 100 – 200 range) maybe suggest Quinn might not be great at evaluating HS talent. Or possible, he was really good at it as an analyst from ’15-’17 and now doesn’t have as much time to devote to actually digging into the tape?
Thoughts anyone?
I went back and looked at our 18S grades for those 4:
Correll – 95
Kristofic – 89
Carroll – 87
Olmstead – 83
We were all way too high on Correll, he just hasn’t been able to get much bigger and his physicality is nowhere near the level we thought.
Most of us were down on Carroll relative to his Composite ranking and then he had the knee setback once he got to Notre Dame.
We all kind of knew Olmstead was very overrated relative to his rankings.
Kristofic is a curious case, it seems. We all love his potential and up until very recently it seemed like the coaching staff did too? He’s seemingly practiced at tackle, guard, and now apparently is more of a center. I don’t know, it’s hard to understand his situation at the moment.
I guess the size growth is a pretty tough thing to evaluate. You guess based on their frame, but an easy area to miss.
A guy like Petit-Frere, would be really nice right now.
Count me as nervous for the future as well. So far our whole 2022 class looks like lots of potential, but I wouldn’t say I’m overly confident in them turning out to be the right developmental prospects. Thank god for Spindler and Fisher. Here’s hoping we can land Rice.
It’s amazing how quickly my outlook on the current and future state of the program can change.
If Alt is as impressive and advanced as pretty much everyone who has seen him says he is, then it’s all good for the next cycle of o-line play
Let’s hope. In theory, Fisher, Spindler, Correll, Baker, Alt, could be a very good line. But our current one should also be good. Who knows. It will take a long time for this to all play out. It’s just all the years of getting kicked in the nuts that makes it take 2 bad games for me to assume the team is going to crater for the next 4 years.
I feel ya. It was interesting to hear Greg McElroy on latest The Shamrock podcast, he’s actually very high on Notre Dame. I think all of us are very nervous (as you mention for historically good reason), but McElroy pointed out how both games coulda/shoulda been ND blowouts, and would have been if not for silly errors and turnovers.
He also predicted a multi-TD win this weekend. Not sure if he was just playing nice on a ND-centered podcast but he’s often very complimentary of Kelly. Either way, kinda odd to see a plugged in national analyst very bullish on the team right now, when I think a lot of us are expecting the other shoe to drop at any moment.
“Or did they (and Eichenberg/Kraemer) plateau after Heistand left, and were just already excellent“
I don’t think this is the case. The 2018 team couldn’t run the ball early in the season, and Banks wasn’t even a starter on that team (Bars and Mustipher were still around). Guys like Banks and Hainsey (both 2017 class) improved a whole lot in the post-Harry world.
Development of the 2018-19 classes is certainly a big problem at this point.
Yeah. That’s generally how I have felt, which is why I tend to think it isn’t so much Quinn’s ability to develop, but more his evaluation of the potential to develop. Even Patterson would have been evaluated with Hiestand here. Is it a coincidence that Quinn’s first class has all failed to develop? Could be. Who knows.
I would have to think only the slightest Hiestand finger prints apply to Pattersson, who committed in Feb 2018, one month after Harry left ND. All of Olmstead, Kristofic and Carroll committed by May 2018, so I mean it’s not like Hiestand probably didn’t do very early scouting and laying ground work in 2017 on those guys too…
Which leads me to believe it probably isn’t evaluation. They’re bringing in really well-regarded prospects. I’d cast more an eye on the development and coaching when they get here. Some have thrived under Quinn (Patterson), Correll’s probably at least OK, Fisher just naturally walked in the door as a once-in-a-while stud….But otherwise it’s pretty fair to wonder what Quinn has done to get out of the rest of them.
Eichenberg has said he didn’t like playing for Hiestand because he was an afterthought. Supposedly the only people Harry gave the time of day to were his starters, and if you weren’t starting you basically didn’t exist.
Quinn developed Joe Staley at CMU and Jason Kelce at Cincy. He’s wholly (Eichenberg, Banks) or mostly (Hainsey) responsible for the development of the three OL that were taken in the first three rounds last spring, an NFL first. He’s a good to very good coach.
The story of this line is a failure that has many fathers. Patterson should have classmates on this line, but the three guys Harry landed in that class were all never-was guys who left. The 2019 class was good by the rankings; Carroll got hurt early, Kristofic is the Glinch-type projection who didn’t fill out, Correll would be fine if he was playing his natural position, and Olmstead was a depth guy from the beginning. In hindsight they should’ve taken an interior guy in 2020, but that would’ve given them 15 scholarship OL that fall and that’s a lot.
And of course we’re on our third LT after two games, which doesn’t help. I said in the writers’ room yesterday that it’s a bad situation that could’ve mostly been prevented, but each decision point was understandable in contemporary context.
So it seems like things will likely be fine next year (with another year of coaching/experience) as we overcome the lost 2019 class (even if it takes awhile this year for things to stabilize – esp. with the Fisher injury)?
2022: Fisher-Spindler-Correll-?????-Baker or Alt
Carmody is a game time decision, per BK.
Kristofic to be rotated in at guard, as well. Spindler and Dirksen possibilities, too.
Let’s just get Spindler in there already! Let him learn. Start prepping for 2023. That team will be stacked.