Welcome back to the 18Stripes G5 Top 10. We had some interesting movement due to some surprising results. Let’s cut the intro down and get right to it.
Also Considered: BYU, Liberty, UAB, App State, Western Michigan
Week 7 Recap
Movers and Shakers
For a quick peek behind the scenes of how I go through the process of ranking these teams, I use SP+ Win Probabilities that Brendan uses for Notre Dame for all of the Group of 5 teams. UL-Monroe had the worst SP+ number going into this past weekend of games. Liberty had a 98.5% chance of winning before the players hit the field according to that metric. Vegas agreed with a 33.5 point line for the Flames, who were traveling to Monroe.
For one half, it looked like the Flames would cruise, up 14-0 at half. Then, The WarHawks exploded for a 28 point third quarter. Liberty ran 12 plays in that quarter, with 4 of them coming at the end of the quarter, where the urgency was ratcheted up. Malik Willis did his best to carry his team out of the depths, throwing for 135 yards and rushing for another 157. A good chunk of those rushing yards came on the game tying 53 yard touchdown run.
However, the Flames offense struggled to get the spark the rest of the way. ULM’s Calum Sutherland hit a 52 yard field goal with 1:44 left to give the home team the lead for good. The 31-28 game was clinched after Willis’ third interception of the evening. I think, on top of this being the biggest upset of the season thus far, this puts Liberty on the sidelines from the Top Ten for a fair amount of time. They play Ole Miss and Louisiana later in the season, but if this is the team that shows up, I’m not sure they can beat either of those teams.
Speaking of Louisiana, they proved all of the whispers (including yours truly) about their demise. They went out on Tuesday and took care of business against App State 41-13. The Ragin Cajuns came out firing, scoring on their first three offensive drives of the evening. The Mountaineers struggled to keep up, not getting into the end zone in the first half, trailing 20-6.
The second half would spell further doom from the boys from Boone. QB Chase Brice threw an interception deep in Mountaineer territory and the UL offense took advantage of the field position. Chris Smith finished it off for the Cajuns, and the rout was on. The Mountaineers tried to amount a comeback, but never got within two scores the rest of the way. I still like App State as a team, which may be a soft spot for me personally, but they have to win their way back into the top ten the rest of the way. I also think that Louisiana is firmly in the tier below the unbeatens and will hold the title of “Best 1 Loss G5 Team” for a fair amount of time.
The BYU top ten experiment seems to have firmly crashed and burned officially. Baylor asserted itself at home with its running game to compliment QB Gerry Bohanaon through the air. BYU, much like last week, struggled with their own running game. Jaren Hall got his through the air, but that seems to be dictated by the game script more than anything.
After a relatively close first half, Baylor pulled away in the second half, scoring on three of its first four possessions. BYU’s schedule doesn’t look entirely too difficult prior to its’ regular season finale with USC, but in terms of Group of 5 Top Ten, they need help from Utah and Arizona State to elevate their wins.
Top Teams Wraparound
In the Bearcat Playoff Watch section of the post, Cincinnati took care of UCF, 56-21. Honestly, watching most of this game live, the score does not indicate how much of a blowout this game truly was. The Bearcats outgained UCF 476-296. Cincinnati relied on its rushing attack to put the Knights away. Jerome Ford had a season high 189 yards and 2 TDs. He appears to be the threat for the Bearcats as they ramp up conference play, as this is the second consecutive week he has rushed for over 9 yards a carry.
Down in Texas, the (NOW AP RANKED) UTSA Roadrunners took care of business against Rice. The Roadrunners, true to their name, ran all over the Owls, rushing for 261 yards. The Roadrunners, after a tough game the week prior against WKU, picked off two passes. Those two interceptions were then returned to the house for UTSA. The Roadrunners performance, combined with the uncertainty of the Mountain West, moved them back up into the #3 spot.
We’re going to hit on the Mountain West in one fell swoop. Boise State taking a step back continued as the Broncos lost their second straight conference game. The Broncos lost late Saturday night against Air Force 24-17. The Falcons did what good option teams do, run the ball effectively and take off as much clock as possible while doing it. With consecutive wins over Boise and Wyoming, the boys in Colorado Springs control their destiny in the Mountain West Mountain Division.
The Falcons got indirect help earlier in the day, as Fresno rebounded from their upset loss against Hawaii two weeks prior by shutting out the Cowboys in Laramie 17-0. All three scoring drives came off turnovers; which Wyoming had 5 on the afternoon. Not a banner day for the Bulldog offense, but enough to get back on track. San Diego State ended up falling a bit, mostly because in a 2OT 19-13 Win over San Jose State, the offenses struggled until overtime. I understand that SDSU is trying to win akin to how Iowa does, but the offense needs to do more against the upper tier MWC competition to earn my trust into that #3 spot.
Week 7 Preview
Headliners
This week for headliners, we’re going to pick three games. If you noticed the games in the Top Ten list, you may have an idea as to why that’s the case. Before we dive into the two Top Ten ranked games this week, we have a game that was almost a ranked game. A week after losing in Lafayette, App State hosts Coastal Carolina. This is the best showcase game for the Chants before the Sun Belt Championship against Louisiana (assuming they win out). This is a good chance for the Mountaineers to get a statement win this season, after losing out in Miami and last week.
The rest of this week’s headliners belongs to the Mountain West Conference. The first matchup helps decide some hierarchy in the West Division. Fresno State hosts Nevada in a showdown of the two potentially best QBs in the conference.Fresno seems to need this game a little bit more because two losses in conference seems like a death sentence in this division. The winner will be in prime position to try and take down the San Diego State behemoth in future weeks.
Speaking of the Aztecs, San Diego makes a trip east to Colorado Springs to take on Air Force. The Aztec defense will almost assuredly be the best unit on the field (besides the San Diego State punting team), so seeing them take on a triple option offense will be interesting. It’s also worth noting that Air Force has a bye week next week before they play Army. It wouldn’t surprise me to see them try some new plays after their win over Boise.
Conference Highlights
Cincinnati @ Navy (American): Navy has shown flashes of taking down lesser teams or at least pushing them to the limit. While this team doesn’t have the skill of years past teams, I think the option could be tricky for the Cincinnati defense, and limit the offense. If Navy leads this early it wouldn’t shock me.
UTSA @ Louisiana Tech (C-USA): This road trip for the Roadrunners has two potential traps. The first is that this is the first game since they were ranked in the AP Poll and they have to go to Ruston to showcase their worthiness to the voters eyes. Second, UTEP has emerged as a potential spoiler in Conference USA and UTSA makes the trip to El Paso after their bye week. The Roadrunners need to be careful with this test.
Nothing (Mountain West): Outside of the two headliners in the Mountain West, there isn’t anything of note from the conference, with a drop off from the top teams.
Western Michigan @ Toledo (MAC): The Broncos have their final test on their MAC gauntlet. If the Broncos can get the win over Toledo, they will be favored in every game until potentially their final one, against Northern Illinois.
Louisiana @ Arkansas State (Sun Belt): The Ragin Cajuns have an interesting test. Arkansas State is not a good team by any stretch of the imagination, but a road test after an important win has let down potential.
Top Teams Roundup
The rest of the slate is a little light. BYU and Liberty have road trips to Washington State and North Texas respectively. Newcomes to the Top Ten Houston comes off their bye week and hosts a struggling East Carolina team. They have a showdown coming up with SMU the following week. The Mustangs host Tulane in a tune up with the Cougars.
That’s all I have for you all today! Sound off below on any of the games from Saturday or the ones coming up this week!
