Hello and welcome back to the 18S G5 Top Ten! We had one big result shake up the top ten and the corresponding conference race this week! Let’s dive into the top ten and break down the conferences. I also added a special section for the independents at the bottom.
Also Considered: James Madison, East Carolina, App State, Buffalo, Toledo
The Races
UCF knocked off Cincinnati in the Bounce House in the one of the best games of the weekend, 25-21. The Knights lost their starting QB Jon Rhys Plumlee to a potential concussion, and backup Mikey Keene handled the offense with grace. Cincinnati is frankly lucky that the game was as close as it was late, as UCF had two separate third quarter drives go into the red zone that resulted in a fumble recovered by the defense. UCF now has a tiebreaker over Cincinnati as the two teams both have one loss in conference.
The other team that has a loss in conference that is still lurking around is the Houston Cougars. This upcoming Saturday they can keep themselves in the American race as they take on the floundering SMU team. The Mustangs have struggled to get their footing with new head coach Rhett Lashlee. Much like a year ago, the schedule opens up for the Cougars if they can get past the Mustangs. Tulane has the drivers’ seat but any of the four teams all have a valid shot at making the Conference Championship Game.
In the Sun Belt we saw a further shaping of the top of both divisions. Southern Miss officially put themselves into contention for the Sun Belt West with a 39-24 win over the defending Sun Belt Champs Louisiana. The Cajuns have struggled in their first year post Napier (and the exodus of players) tumble out of contention with hopes turning to 2023 rebuild. Elsewhere, Coastal got back on track in a 24-13 win over Marshall. The Chants went up early and kept Marshall out of reach the rest of the way. There are a handful of two loss teams in the conference that can trip up Coastal, but only one can have tiebreaker over them.
That team? The Appalachian State Mountaineers. After a loud opening stretch of the season, the Mountaineers seemed to peeter out in conference play. Now sitting at 6-3, App State makes the weekend trip to Conway. Remember that a year ago, App State won at home on a last second FG, putting the Chants out of position for a potential New Years Six appearance. App State has rolled through their recent schedule, smartly scheduling Robert Morris before this game. This is definitely my game of the week to watch.
Okay, so we have to start with the finish of the weekend. Fresno State trailed San Diego State 21-10 at halftime and 28-17 with less than 100 seconds left. Jake Haener, in his return to action since the USC game, led his team down the field for a quick score. Then, the longest onside kick (in terms in distance down the field) recovered by the kicking team put Fresno firmly in position to at least tie the game. However, the very next play Haener found Nikko Remigio for 37 yard catch and run to take the lead. The next play from scrimmage for the Aztecs was an interception to seal Fresno State’s improbable win. The Bulldogs are now essentially tied for the division lead with San Jose State. The Spartans rose to the occasion to comeback against a game Nevada squad 35-28. The Bulldogs hold the tiebreaker, so SJSU needs some help to get back to the Conference Championship Game.
With the improbable loss, San Diego State falls down to 2-2 in conference. They have no time to rest as they are hosting a rested UNLV team. The Rebels are coming off of their bye post Notre Dame game, and look to readjust to become the dark horse in the West Division.
Conference USA saw much more focus for its top prize this past week. North Texas asserted themselves as the second team in the pecking order, blowing out Western Kentucky 40-13. The Hiltoppers struggled early and often against the Mean Green defense. It feels like that we’re barrelling towards a UTSA-North Texas Championship Game. That is because UAB once again fell in conference play, losing a close game at home against Florida Atlantic 24-17. The interim staff at UAB clearly shows a step back from the Bill Clark era of the Blazers (which will be interesting to monitor this offseason as they go to the American in 2023).
UAB does have a chance to somewhat salvage their season. They have a chance to knock off UTSA. UTSA beat them at the Alamodome that clinched the division for the Roadrunners. With this new system in C-USA, the division isn’t up for grabs, but a UTSA unbeaten conference record is and a trip to Birmingham is an interesting challenge for Jeff Traylor, Frank Harris, and company.
The MAC had their usual small amount of games as weeknight MAC-tion picks up in earnest on Tuesday. The one major game we did have to offer was an important one, both in terms of micro and macro. Toledo came back on the road to knock off Eastern Michigan 27-24. Toledo regains full control of their destiny in the MAC West with the win, now having tiebreakers over all of the teams below them.
While Tuesday brings the first CFP Rankings, the more interesting thing to me is the game following it; Buffalo @ Ohio. After a shaky 2021 season that saw long time coach Frank Solich leave the program, the Bobcats now have a chance to knock off Buffalo at home, take the division lead into the final stretch of games, and do it at home. I’m not sure if they can pull it off after how impressive Buffalo looked against Toledo, but I am willing to watch and find out!
Independent Island
Now, to introduce a new section for the other schools unable to get a direct shot to the New Years Six, Independent Island. This is where I will come to talk about the odds and ends going on in the other parts of the college football world. First, I have to acknowledge the preperteous fall of BYU this season. The Cougars fell short to East Carolina 27-24. I’m intrigued to see how this schedule will compare to the Big 12 one they will have next season and if this is more of the norm going forward.
So, UConn has an outside shot at a bowl game? In their first year under Jim Mora Jr, the Huskies have played very competent football and now have their big P5 win. They knocked off a struggling BC 13-3 in Storrs. They play UMass next week (they should win) and have to beat either Liberty or Army to reach bowl eligibility. An interesting thing to see from a former Sickos team (Okay they are still a Sickos team but still!).
Next week has a couple of interesting staples of each season. Boise State, on a four game win streak, host BYU in their annual showdown. Air Force takes on Army in the second leg of the Commander in Chief’s Trophy. If the Falcons win, they take sole ownership of the title for the first time since 2016.
Finally, I know I’ve been low on Liberty, but it has been only slightly petty. From the jump I wanted to try and power rank teams that have show to be good on the field and have a chance to make the NY6 bowl. While Liberty is 7-1 and ranked in the AP Poll, I don’t think that their play rewards them being above some other teams who have more favorable statistical profiles. This week will truly be the make or break week for the Flames for me to take them seriously. They take on Arkansas in Fayetteville. Arkansas may not be the ranked school they were earlier in the season, but coming off wins over BYU and Auburn, they look like they are revving back up to be a force.
That’s all I have for you all. Enjoy the MAC-tion and other weekday football the rest of the week!
Thanks to the MAC we have FBS or NFL football every day until Thanksgiving-eve.
One of my favorite ranking algorithms, IHGMB, has the G5 Top Ten:
So loves Liberty, but hates S. Alabama (59).
Liberty at Arkansas is going to be tragically under watched this weekend set up in the timeslot against Tennessee at Georgia.
Solid Top Ten. Nice changes to the format. Buffalo – Ohio should be a good game and go a long way to resolving MAC East champion. Buffalo’s achievements despite losing Kyle Vantrease who, with a redshirt year, was there for five years, are a credit to the coaching staff. Vantrease – now with Georgia Southern – is second nationally in passing yards per game at 338 yds/game. The top three leaders in the Sunbelt Conference in passing yards per game are all transfers. Western Kentucky has replaced Bailey Zappe, who led all QBs in yards per game in 2021, with another transfer QB from a FCS team, Austin Reid from West Florida, who is eighth nationally with 306 yds per game.
Unbelievable how San Diego State lost to Fresno. As an aside, San Diego State’s newest QB, Jalen Mayden, is a transfer from Mississippi State and replaced Braxton Burmeister, a transfer from Oregon.