Hello and welcome back to the G5 Top Ten! We had some shakeup, but it seems like we’re settling in to there being eight teams in two tiers, with those last two teams seemingly rotating. Let’s continue on to see who I thought was deserving of those spots this week.
Also Considered: Toledo, James Madison, Fresno State, San Jose State, Western Kentucky
The Races
First, we have to talk about the much hyped, at least in this space, game of the weekend. UCF firmly took the lead of the top of the AAC and the top of the G5 hill with a 38-31 victory over Tulane. UCF, with returning QB John Rhys Plumlee, ran all over the vaunted Tulane defense. They ended with 336 rushing yards on the day; 176 of those belonging to Plumlee himself. Tulane tried to scratch and claw their way back after a 17-7 deficit after the first quarter.
The top teams all now have identical records because of Cincinnati’s 27-25 victory over East Carolina Friday night. The Bearcats survived a late Pirates rally, due to their offense essentially shut down in the second half. Four of the drives for Cincinnati were three and outs. If the Bearcats want to repeat as American Conference Champions, they need to get that fixed, especially with Tulane looming Thanksgiving Weekend.
However, that is two weeks away. First, Tulane has to get through their next game; a visit from SMU. The Mustangs, after a slow start in conference play, has seen their offense come alive. They have won three in a row, scoring at least forty in each of those games. The Tulane defense will get one of their strongest challengers, and have to rebound quickly to remain in the hunt for the CCG.
In the Sun Belt, we have one part of the Conference Championship Game settled. Coastal Carolina, sans star QB Grayson McCall, took care of business against Southern Miss 36-33. This game was a little sweaty for the Chants, and had multiple opportunities to pull away but could not get the stops they needed. Luckily for them, there doesn’t seem to be one great power coming out of the Sun Belt West, so they should be favored in a home against either Troy or South Alabama.
Speaking of those Sun Belt schools, they are firmly the focus of the Sun Belt for the rest of the season. A reminder that Troy has the head to head tiebreaker over the Jaguars and South Alabama needs help. In a week where most of the conference is playing P5 opponents, these two teams have big tests in conference. Troy hosts UL-Monroe, which has been frisky all year and is coming off a big win over Georgia State. South Alabama goes on the road to Hattiesburg to take on the aforementioned Southern Miss team. A loss here for South Alabama would spell doom for them. They need to win out at a minimum to get into the Sun Belt CCG, also needing a Troy loss.
Unlike the Sun Belt West, the Mountain West West Division got less complicated on Saturday night. San Jose State saw their chances drift away as they fell behind early and often in San Diego. The Spartans fell to the Aztecs 43-27. Combined with the comeback victory of Fresno State over UNLV Friday night, the Bulldogs now hold a full game lead over everyone in the division. Plus, Fresno hold the tiebreakers over SDSU and SJSU. Which is funny, because the crazy comeback Jake Haener led two Saturdays ago could potentially decide the division.Â
Next week, in a simple win and they’re in scenario, is the trip to Reno Fresno State takes. The Bulldogs look remarkably back to full strength and this is a Nevada team that is the worst team in their division, maybe the entire Mountain West conference. Crazier things have happened to a Jake Haener led Fresno team, but this seems like a sure thing.
The other major matchup in the conference can settle who will come out of the other division. Boise State takes a trip to Laramie to take on the only team that can catch the Broncos. Wyoming has won four in a row against mostly the basement of the conference, but the games all count the same. Wyoming’s path is simple; win Saturday, then you get a chance at Fresno to host the Championship Game, then take on Fresno again. It may seem far fetched considering how well Boise has played in conference, but it’s still on the table.
In Conference USA, we had a major shakeup in the second tier of teams. UAB, who had been close to clipping some contender’s wings this entire season, finally pulled it off at home. They knocked off North Texas 41-21 to give the Mean Green their second C-USA loss of the season. North Texas is still firmly in control of their own destiny though. They own the tiebreakers over both FAU and Western Kentucky by head to head, have a bye this week, and play their final game in Denton. Obviously, if you’re Seth Littrell, you’d want to win this week to get the slot firmly sewn up, but they are in control.
The other team essentially in for the CUSA CCG is UTSA. I tried to do some late night math on Saturday to figure out if there was a scenario if they lose out and don’t make it, but I’m not sure that’s possible with the key wins they have. However, I do have their game against Rice as one to watch because a win solidifies their spot, and Rice is the team that heads to Denton the following week. It will be interesting to see how the Owls do in a spot where they take on the top two teams in the conference.
The MAC, to little surprise due to their early week games, give us our first contender for a conference championship in the G5. That is partially due to DeQuean Finn’s GW TD throw to Jamal Turner for Toledo to knock off Ball State 28-21. The Rockets needed Western Michigan to either lose on Wednesday, or lose one of their other games the rest of the way. The Broncos followed suit as they lost to Northern Illinois 24-21. This is head coach Jason Candle’s second MAC Championship appearance in his seventh full season at Toledo.
Eyes to the MAC now turn to the MAC West. The race is down to three teams. Ohio took care of their business. The Bobcats got help from some of their fellow conference mates. Buffalo lost a heartbreaker to Central Michigan 31-27 and Bowling Green was blown out of the water by Kent State 40-6. Ohio now is firmly in control of their destiny in the division, with two games to go.
There is some fun crossover games this upcoming week. First, we have a must win game for Bowling Green. The Falcons have a chance to win out and get a tiebreaker over Ohio to overcome their early loss to Buffalo. They host Toledo, who don’t have anything to technically play for but pride at this point. I think Toledo probably wants to keep up momentum going into the MAC Championship Game, so this might be the end of the Bowling Green run. Elsewhere, Ohio goes to Muncie to take on Ball St. The Cardinals need a win to get bowl eligible and the Bobcats need to win to clinch the division. It should be yet another fun week of MACtion.
The Races
Over on Independent Island we have gotten so many tickets to the UConn Island after they knocked off Liberty 36-33 in Connecticut. While UConn doesn’t have a direct bowl attachment, they have the chance to do so for the first time since 2015 in the biggest turnaround in college football.
Speaking of turnarounds, we have a truly schadenfreude scenario. Most college football fans know that Texas A&M, with their loss to Auburn on Saturday night, are no longer bowl eligible. There’s like a 99% chance this won’t happen, but they host UMass on Saturday. Again, I don’t think it WILL happen…but what if it DID happen?
That’s all I have for you today! Thanks again for your support as we wind down the season!
Nice write-up and always impressed with the breadth and insight of your coverage. With the uneven scheduling of P5 opponents, total wins can be difficult for comparisons. UConn (four) and Kent St (three) come to min). Tulane, for instance, did not play any P5 team. As you pointed out, an impressive turnaround for the Huskies from the last few years, who are on the verge of bowl eligibility and have beaten Fresno, Liberty, and BC, their first win over BC in the series dating back to 1908. Kent State played Georgia tougher (17 pt loss) and had a smaller point differential than Oregon and four SEC teams did. Kent St is favored in MAC matchups for the third week in a row. They have winnable games left against E. Mich and Buffalo to be bowl-eligible.
Wouldn’t it be a hoot if Liberty beat Auburn and Coastal beat Virginia this week? Middle Tenn and FAU pits two teams needing one more win to be bowl eligible.
As an aside, BYU, a G5 Independent?, plays FCS Utah Tech this week. Utah Tech in southern Utah at St George and founded by the LDS, was formerly known as Dixie State. They were called the Rebels, had a Rebel mascot and flew a Confederate flag as a school symbol. The Utah state legislature approved the name change this past July but kept the St George campus as Dixie Campus.
Wyoming – Boise State will be interesting for the lead in the MW-Mt division. Boise State has had a bit of an off year. A lot of people don’t realize that the elevation above sea level in Boise is only about 2700 feet. They will be going into War Memorial stadium that is 7220 feet. (“Welcome to 7220” if you have ever been to a Wyoming game) This is significant advantage for the pokes. Also temperature wise, Laramie is about 8 to 10 degrees colder in November than Boise. Although the forecasted high for this coming Saturday is 32, so not to bad.
Wyoming had a one point win over Colorado State in the Border War this past weekend, but I got a feeling that is because they were looking ahead. I think Craig Bohl has the pokes ready to go and will definitely cover the spread, if not an outright win.
In other news Kenny Minchey has decommitted from Pitt. The Irish were the last program to offer him in July, shortly before he committed to Pitt. I think this bodes well for ND and getting a decent QB in the class, one that has a chance to see over the linemen.
He’s officially visiting too this weekend.
Yep, the paid sites are expecting an ND commit from him very soon. If nothing else at least we have another off-season of Narduzzi discontent coming!
Minchey would be a decent get considering where we are at. Overall, it’s nice to get a QB who has risen in the rankings over his SR year. Our QBs usually go the other way once they commit.
At this point, it’s a pretty big win in my book. It looked like we would be stuck with no one or some low 3 star. Not having a decent prospect at QB was a huge hole in this class.
I think Minchey did pretty well in the elite 11 and that’s where his ranking rose. I think he was out for most of his senior year with injury (played a little at the beginning of the year and came back for the playoffs).
I guess that would explain why he rose fairly consistently in ranking updates from April to September, then has plateaued since then.
Just went to google Minchey’s highlights and this youtube video was one of the top results. Whoopies. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hg_GB9chjvc&ab_channel=LockedOnPitt (Why You Shouldn’t Be Worried About Kenny Minchey)
discuss Minchey around 16:00 minute mark, also on YouTube, ISD’s view of Minchey: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nMLalpfkp30
Very encouraging review.
He doesn’t quite have the touch or poise of Dante Moore, but otherwise he kinda looks like the slightly off-brand version, if you squint enough. Very similar builds and strengths, though Moore has that extra polish.