My guess is that if you’re over the age of 30 this weekend’s game for Notre Dame was simply Navy things. No big deal. Playing in this rivalry every damn year we’ve seen so many variations of gritty Navy coming back and hanging around to make things close. The veterans among us were probably bored and wanted the game to end more than anything else.
Notre Dame played well in the first half leading 35-13 with some opportunistic football and explosive plays on offense. Navy started out the 2nd half burning over half of the 3rd quarter only to settle for a field goal. It all seemed to be working in the favor of the Irish for an easy victory.
Stats Package
| STAT | IRISH | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| Score | 35 | 32 |
| Plays | 55 | 59 |
| Total Yards | 335 | 363 |
| Yards Per Play | 6.09 | 6.15 |
| Conversions | 7/14 | 4/12 |
| Completions | 17 | 6 |
| Yards/Pass Attempt | 12.8 | 8.6 |
| Rushes | 34 | 46 |
| Rushing Success | 29.6% | 37.7% |
| 10+ Yds Rushes | 3 | 6 |
| 20+ Yds Passes | 6 | 4 |
| Defense Stuff Rate | 37.2% | 41.5% |
Nope! The offense would punt 4 times, throw an interception, and luckily have the chance to kneel out the game with only a 3-point win. Taking out those 2 kneel downs, Notre Dame ran 18 plays for 6 yards in the 2nd half–truly giving us one of the ugliest halves of football in Fighting Irish history.
Offense
QB:Â B
RB: C
TE:Â B
OL:Â D
WR: B+
In some ways, this game played out as expected. Navy’s run defense was stout but their pass defense was really porous. The Irish even found plenty of success making big plays through the air as Drew Pyne connected on 7 explosive passes for 214 yards, with 3 touchdowns included in those throws down field.
Overall, Pyne’s stats looked pretty great: 17 of 21 for 269 yards, 4 touchdowns, with the contractually obligated batted down throw resulting in an interception He even had 2 successful runs (25% of the team total, uhh not great guys!), including an 11-yard touchdown run.
Factor in the 3 explosive runs of 28, 12, and 11 yards and the Irish had a huge day…on less than 20% of their snaps.
Notre Dame’s other 45 plays went for 70 yards. SEVENTY! Only 1.5 yards per play!
Rushing Success
Diggs -3 of 13 (23.0%)
Estime – 2 of 8 (25.0%)
Pyne – 2 of 3 (66.6%)
Mitchell – 1 of 1 (100%)
Tyree – 0 of 2 (0.0%)
There’s all sorts of weirdness when you’re playing Navy but the running game was atrocious almost the entire day with only 6 first downs or touchdown runs. A combined 5 successful carries from the running backs was much worse than just a bad day at the office. I figured there would be some struggles (especially compared to last week against Clemson) but this was extremely disappointing.
In the second half, Navy brought a ton of pressure and the Irish either weren’t blocking it and/or Pyne wasn’t getting rid of the ball quickly enough. The result was giving up 5 sacks and getting shutout in the last 2 quarters.
The 41.5% stuff rate for Navy’s defense is as high as I can ever remember for Notre Dame allowing in a game. I would guess that is as high as it’s been in a game in 5 years or longer. Maybe even since 2008, I wouldn’t be surprised.
It sucks, but the game is so condensed when you’re playing Navy. Pyne went from ridiculous stats to looking pretty bad based on just 10 dropbacks in the 2nd half:
SACK
INT
SACK
21-yard completion
Incompletion
SACK
SACK
6-yard completion
SACK
8-yard completion
If you spread that out over a normal 80-play game it’s probably not that bad, at least against a poor opponent. But when it comes all at once in a half where you have only 18 non-kneel snaps it’s so deflating.
At least we got some big plays out of the receivers. They lead the positional grades on offense for the first time all season! Maybe for the first time in a couple seasons! On 12 combined targets Lenzy, Thomas, and Colzie totaled 10 receptions for 197 yards and 2 touchdowns. Almost 20 yards per reception is very nice.
Defense
DL: B
LB:Â D
DB: C-
I didn’t have much of an issue with how the defense played except they gave up too many big plays and then couldn’t adjust too well against Navy throwing the ball so often late in the game. The latter is much more excusable because it’s always so disorientating when Navy isn’t pounding the ball on the ground.
Navy did outgain the Irish, so there’s that. This tends to happen when the Notre Dame offense no-shows the second half.
The Middies had 10 explosive plays, just like the Irish. They gained 242 yards on those snaps, including 150 rushing yards on their best 6(!) carries. However, only 23 of those rushing yards came in the 2nd half. I definitely thought Notre Dame cleaned things up, took away the fullback dive, and Navy’s rushing game started looking like it was being corralled.
Stuffs vs. Navy
Kiser – 3.5
Liufau – 2.5
Kollie – 2.5
Ademilola, Jayson – 2
Morrison – 2
Foskey – 1.5
Cross – 1
Watts – 1
Ademilola, Justin – 1
Henderson – 1
Rubio – 1
Bracy – 1
Botelho – 0.5
NaNa – 0.5
Mills – 0.5
Brown – 0.5
Normally, we’d be glowing about stuffing nearly 4 in 10 plays from Navy!
It definitely appeared like the Irish missed some of JD Bertrand and veteran linebacker play early on, at least. The tackling on the perimeter also left a lot to be desired, as well. Plenty of players in the secondary came up to make a stop for a short gain and were juked into a whiff. I thought this would be a strength for Notre Dame–and it did get better with the likes of Xavier Watts and Ramon Henderson making plays–but it should’ve been better.
This, plus some bad penalties made this game a little too close for comfort.
Final Thoughts
Another blocked punt! You love to see it. Brian Mason even has the onsides kickoff team on point, too.
Blake Grupe has missed a kick in each of the last 3 games and 3 out of his last 6 overall.
Braden Lenzy’s catch was absurd. The 5 receptions are the 2nd most in a game for Lenzy’s career (he caught 7 in the Fiesta Bowl against Oklahoma State).
Braden Lenzy is HIM? pic.twitter.com/2PvoxeItLj
— 18 Stripes (@18stripes) November 12, 2022
Notre Dame had a lot of stuffs, but just 4 tackles for loss. They didn’t get Navy off schedule quite enough.
Isaiah Foskey had a sack but it was wiped out after Marist Liufau’s facemask penalty following the linebacker coming in late to clean up the play. Navy would eventually settle for a field goal.
Notre Dame targeted the running backs twice in this game, both completions for a total of 35 yards including the 30-yard touchdown to Audric Estime. With the problems in the 2nd half it’s shocking there weren’t more looks to the backs. Is that play-calling or Pyne not reading things quickly enough?
There was a lot of whiplash with Navy alternating between ultra-conservative and hyper-aggressive play-calling. Their lone turnover of the game coming on a trick play late in the 1st half was brutal. It was only 21-13 at the time. That pick happens, Notre Dame scores 3 plays later, blocks the punt 5 players after that, and Pyne found Thomas for a 37-yard score on the first play of the ensuing drive.
Even though it felt like Navy had a lot of passing yards, they’ve had 5 other games with more this season. A year ago in 2021, they broke 100 passing yards only once in a single game.
Drew Pyne now moves to a passing stat line in 2022 of the following: 128 of 203 (63.0%) for 1,547 yards, 18 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions. He’s definitely one of those players you just have to watch. I don’t think even the most ardent contrarian is going to be looking back at this season with rose-colored glasses a few years down the road.
The yards per play for Notre Dame’s offense dropped by 3 full yards in the 2nd half and Navy’s fell by 2 yards. The Middies ended up barely winning the advantage in this game. Through 10 games, the Irish are now +0.38 in YPP in 2022. That is remarkably similar to Brian Kelly’s first season in South Bend and the +0.37 YPP totaled after the Sun Bowl victory over Miami.
I’m over 30 and I would not say this was simply Navy things. The last time Navy skunked ND for an entire half was 2009 — the first half. The last time Navy skunked ND for the entire second half, or that Navy mounted a 19-0 comeback, was I don’t know when. I don’t think I’ve ever seen that before. This was an unusual Navy game and ND’s worst offensive half since at least 2008.
Also, Navy had only one of their patented timesuck drives — the 10-minute monster in the 3rd quarter. And that actually benefitted us, because it only resulted in a field goal and left them too little time to win (although just barely). The typical Simply Navy Things has several of those drives that leave us too little time to win, a la 2016.
Also, this is not a rivalry.
I am over 70, ACS, and honestly, with much respect, I do think there was indeed some of Navy gonna be Navy. You gotta give ’em credit for the 10 minute drive, phantom PI, included — that changed mindsets, kept our offense cold for 45 minutes, gave their defense time to get really pumped for their “cover 0”. And we have seen it before, when they get their weirdness working. Anyway, MF had it right in his post game remarks. Now if they can drill Drew into better fast reactions to 8 man blitzes, we may survive BC. Which is not a rivalry either, but whom after ’93 I admit I dislike.
Mentioned in the other thread, but winning is hard. Being consistent against P5 teams is hard. So far today, ranked teams have lost to Boston College (!), Vanderbilt, and Purdue. 8-1 LIberty lost to UConn.
I’ll take a road win against Navy, as maddening as it may be. I just felt this team, after Clemson, was due for a letdown.
I needed this piece of perspective after that game/half. Thank you
I have zero confidence if it came down to a FG needed to tie or win a game on the last play.
I should hvae added , “of any length- 40 to 45 yards”
I agree. And is was a 4th and 2 that they kicked on from the 27. I realize not many play cards or analytics probably say anything other than take the kick attempt, but at that point I’d just as well try to pick up the first. If it was like 4th and 8 for this team, yeah maybe that’s too much, but the kicker is definitely should be a “no trust” zone anywhere over 40.
I think T Rees must not trust Pyne with any decision making on the fly if he’s under pressure. Beating that pressure in the 2nd half should have been child’s play.
I mean, there’s “under pressure” and there’s “Navy is rushing 8.”
You are correct that beating Navy’s insane, reckless blitzing should have been easy with screens, swings, or tosses. Those kinds of plays don’t even require Pyne to see over the OL. But, with maybe one or two exceptions, we didn’t call those, and instead keep trying to go deep downfield or slam Duo straight ahead.
We had better be prepared for BC and SC to throw tons of pressure at us.
Hey if you give Drew Pyne completely clean pockets, a lot of time to throw, open throwing windows and wideouts running open against inferior players he’ll make you pay. Man that was a brutal second half.
Every handoff to chris tyree is a wasted play. Please no more. Ever.
Hopefully freeman no longer trusts grupe. He should not be passing up 4th and shorts to attempt 40 yard field goals.
I have no idea what this team will do the next 2 weeks. I would believe any scenario. Lose to BC, beat USC, sure. Beat BC by 20 lose to SC by 20, yep. Win both, lose both, why the hell not
The way Rees uses the backs sometimes makes me wonder if he suffers from memory loss. It’s bizarre.
Notre Dame will always play Navy as they will stay Independent and just as Navy will always play ND. Also to that commitment to each other through 2032 at this time, this is a semi-neutral game played in large NFL stadiums all over the nation in places often where Navy has a presence. This game was an epitome of how Navy never surrenders. Not in their DNA.
Navy sold out on defense to get to Pyne and to stop the rushing attack. Filling lanes, blitzes – some delayed. The OL can hold against a talented, NFL ready Clemson DL. Why Pyne cannot throw the ball away or dump it off to the flats is a mystery and maddening. Coan and Book could and it sustains drives.
I guess if I’m Rees, this week’s practice would not include any downfield passes and put him on a restricted time and short passes all over the field. Two seconds and get rid of it. Perhaps constant repetition will help. That defensive game plan is there for BC, USC and any bowl opponent. Adapt.
It’ll be interesting to see how much upcoming opponents implement this this. In the first half it looked like Navy was dropping 7 and 8 into coverage (aka the previous way to limit Pyne’s passing game almost completely) but that didn’t work for Navy because they just couldn’t cover, even with numbers. They had no choice but to switch and go the other way and blitz.
But, that said, neither BC nor USC are defensive juggernauts so they might as well bring bodies. That could also help since ND likes to run even in second/third downs where there’s a good bit of distance left.
Questions for those of you who understand offensive/defensive schemes better than me: when the defense has 8 men on the line, how difficult is it for the quarterback to check to an “appropriate play” when he is ready to snap the ball? For instance, a “jump pass” to a crossing tight end? Or quick passes to the flat?
Also, when the defense has 8 men on the line, why were our running backs not able to find a seam and get to the second level of the defense quickly? Seems we were stopped at the line frequently.
JD Bertrand was sorely missed. How serious is his injury?
So I feel qualified to answer to your schematics question, albeit, I DID NOT watch the second half: had a date and assumed we were okayish. So navy running all out blitz heavy boxes (8 man+) is very akin to the don brown (old Michigan DC during the earlier Harbaugh years) approach: break dont bed. You create an extremely high initial barrier that if the team can get past it’s off to the races, see OSU/mich 2018 game. Mich defense was top 5 all season because they could bully people with a smothering aggressive attack, but OSU could weather it and theres little on the back end to stop people from running wild. In short high risk, high reward. At that point, navy has to imagine “well a normal defense in layered depth approach like we did in the first half isnt working so let’s sell the ship and go for broke” Background theory aside, this type of defense has semi wrinkles in it: you can show 8 men on the line and “blitz” all of them, with the caveat that on the snap, any defensive rusher who had a lineman pass set against them will drop into a short zone drop, specifically to take away the quick “hot” throws, so it’s a semi max zone blitz. Again I didnt see the half but I imagine navy did this too. Bill belichick’s has made a living doing this to rookie QBs in the nfl, with the thought being “if you torch me in the high risk defense, I’ll switch, but until then, its hunting season”. It can be just nuanced enough to mess with a QBs processing which gives rushers extra time for sacks, but if a QB can keep composure and make the open read, then it’s busted. Pyne is a fine young man, and I love him dearly for stepping in this year, but hes not athletic enough to elude the pressure by himself, and he does have the speedy processing ability to handle the time compressed reads. Plus it doesn’t sound like tommy adapted to this in-situation, or his counter was verticals going for the jugular to break it. So you have: High risk high reward defensive schematic WR skill positions that are honestly at parity or slightly better than the DBs (tough pill to swallow but call a spade a spade) Slow QB processing with undersized ability to extend on his own And that’s how you get 30 minutes and 16 yards. I also will reiterate my pre game comment that navy will not quit ever regardless of score, and at 35-13, 95% of teams throw in the towel; clemson players make 1st round draft business decisions etc. We saw the navy effect in full force, coupled with a mentality “what do we have to lose?” What’s frustrating is we had no counter to their counter. Regarding remainder of the season, I think ND will establish a better blitz 0 counter. However for BC and USC… Read more »
Subway,
This is IMO one heck of a super response. I appreciated you walking through the permutations! Concur across the board with your take on next steps.
Hey not a problem, theres a lot of cause and effect in football, and knowing the theory behind different approaches enhances the “game within the game”.
This is why I cant watch ND around others, I dont scream at the plays result, I scream at the guards sloppy pass set due to slow footwork or the linebackers improper zone drop due to a false step.
If you’re interested in learning more of the theory, theres some great YouTube resources that break it down, especially a channel called “The QB school”
Good tip, merci!
Notre Dame is now 5-0 ATS (4-1 SU) vs ranked opponents and 0-5 ATS (3-2 SU) vs unranked opponents. This has been such a bizarre season
Some good simple stuff on twitter from greg flammang
https://twitter.com/greg2126/status/1591647647407882240?s=46&t=N9Vbq2MwIZvmzn6Dbo8VCw
Isn’t this kind of embarrassing for Pyne?
Isn’t this like football 101 at this level or is this more difficult than it seems at a game-speed? Though this read seems easier than others perhaps because they are so far off the ball to begin with that you might expect/guess that you’d have to throw rather than handoff even if you’d need to confirm after the snap.
So the plays were there and Pyne didn’t make the reads. That would have stopped the blitzes or caused the defenders to stay back and open the running lanes.
A couple of good play examples from Greg Fleming. Looks pretty simple. Undoubtedly there are other nuances in real time but…
I’m surprised anyone* was surprised by this. This is the same team we’ve had all year. We are a classic Jekyll/Hyde.
I think we’ve figured out that the potion to becoming a murderous unstoppable monster is having the opponent ranked. Early in the season it seemed to be home v away, but looks like it’s more of a level of competition thing (which started to become apparent last week).
The only thing that is consistent is that we are inconsistent. We are a very talented team (outside of QB, woof) that just isn’t consistent. Hopefully this wakes the team up to the fact it can’t sleep walk and get a win against BC, but they still probably won’t be great. Then we will have a great game against USC and in whatever bowl we end up in.
To me, this seems pretty consistent with a new coach.. Getting consistent effort out of a team has to be the single hardest thing a coach does, especially at a college level, and especially with 1/2 your captains injured.
* Full disclosure. I stopped watching at half-time, due to other commitments, so I was actually very surprised by both the total offensive domination in the first half and by the final score. My prediction was something like 15-0. So I was probably the most surprised person around.
Well put. I tend to think it more focus/attention to detail rather than “effort” but that’s probably splitting hairs and goes back to the same root anyways, and still speaks to a coach trying to figure out exactly what he needs his messaging to be and how/when to push what buttons for best results. Nothing about that is too concerning to me, just kinda a natural thing, but Freeman has to figure it out. And easier to do that with a win, considering they already dropped the two that they shouldn’t have.
Yeah. I think focus is a great term, rather than effort. Kind of encompasses the general level of preparation and mental/physical preparedness.
We got into all of this a couple of weeks ago. Consistency (given a solid to high level of coaching talent) is the hardest thing for an American football team and coach to attain. What it takes to achieve that — necessary for coaching greatness — is a burning never ending constant fervor which is bordering on obsession. Not always obvious to the outside observer but there. I was wondering if MF is just too normal a guy. But there is a sign that he might evolve in that direction in his presser today, where he talked at length about having to have complete “urgency” and not being able to take anything for granted. This path leads to National Championships, and ulcers
Yep, that’s basically it. It’s a team where some of the talent is coming together combined with a bottom-decile D1 starting QB. Any result is possible in any game – I would not be super shocked if we lost to BC and beat USC by 15 the next week.
Honestly, I kind of expect exactly that.