Welcome back to the Group of 5 Preview for 2022. During the offseason, I did a lot of thinking about how I wanted to improve and make the lists better and have the content still be fresh. Thinking about this, I thought about how chaotic the early season for Group of 5 teams can be. They are usually playing some power teams of varying quality that aren’t indicative of the season the teams will have going forward. The biggest example was looking at two teams in the Sun Belt. Louisiana, the team who ended up winning the conference last season, lost their opener on the road in Austin against what turned out to be a middling Texas team. They won the rest of their games, getting back into the Top 25.

Coastal Carolina, on the other hand, waltzed through a very easy non-conference schedule that included Kansas making a trip to Conway. They ended up falling to Sun Belt East Champion App State and then to Georgia State, knocking them out of Sun Belt contention. As the saying goes, “Nobody knows anything.”

Well as a response to this internal thinking, I came up with a solution. Another thing I did frequently in the offseason was stream and follow streamers on Twitch. One of the things I found during this perusal is the idea of Tier Lists. Tiermaker uses a lot of these types of things and making them easy and accessible. I thought of what would be the best way to combine these two ideas.

That led me to this first of a two part season preview for the site. This week, with Week 0 coming up this Saturday, I will go and breakdown the five conferences in terms of what goals probably should be for the season. Next week, since there really *shouldn’t* be a big shakeup in terms of G5 teams playing before the Week 1 contests, I will look at the whole Group of 5 in a tier list in lieu of a Top Ten list. The Top Ten list will return, but I will be waiting until four weeks to get a better idea of what these teams are and what they could be based on a quarter of their season pretty much done. Without further ado, let’s look at all of the conferences.

American

Cincinnati has earned the benefit of the doubt from most pundits and this season is the true test of that. The Bearcats lost important starters on both sides of the ball in their College Football Playoff run, including their QB Desmond Ridder and CB Sauce Gardner. This looks to be a two team race with Houston. The Cougars bring back a lot from their defense and outside of their games against Texas Tech and UTSA, they should have an easy path back to the American Championship Game.

UCF, Memphis, and SMU lurk in the shadows of potentially winning the conference if they have everything go right for them. East Carolina is looking to make a jump, but have an unforgiving schedule, so bowling needs to be their floor. Tulane and Tulsa are looking to make a jump back towards the top of the conference after lackluster 2021 seasons. The less said about USF, Navy, and Temple, the better.

Conference USA

With the conference realignment shakeup, this appears to be a last hurrah for Conference USA. They lose top contenders UTSA and UAB (who had a sneaky game of the year in San Antonio in 2021), who look to battle it out maybe twice this season. Western Kentucky, who lost their QB and OC (which made their 2021 run so special) now need to figure out what their identity is. They seem to be the clear #3 team in the conference, but they also need to beat one of UTSA or UAB to assert themselves. This is one of my favorite races to watch this season. 

Florida Atlantic and North Texas, former powers in the conference, look to rebound and try and assert themselves back into that upper echelon this season. Seth Littrell and Willie Taggert look to get off the hot seat in trying to contend for the Title Game late into the season. UTEP and Charlotte look to continue their bowl ambitions to help them improve their programs. UTEP as a potential top dog in the future CUSA Conference, and Charlotte as they move to the American next season.

Mid-American

The MAC, which has been the toughest conference to figure out, looks to have some separation at the top. Defending champion Northern Illinois looks to repeat in a tough MAC West. Their biggest challengers appear to be Toledo and Central Michigan. Lew Nicholls returns as a potential threat to carry the Central Michigan offense to the MAC Championship. Toledo needs to make a jump after a disappointing 2021 season that saw them lose three games by a total of 8 points. Miami (Ohio) appears to be the biggest contender of the MAC East, with Kent State right behind them, despite losing Dustin Crum at QB. Their fast offense should keep them in many games in conference.

Eastern and Western Michigan seem to be swapping places in the MAC West pecking order and Ball State looks to rebound to their 2020 form. Buffalo, a full season removed from losing most of their players and coaching staff to Kansas, could be a team to watch in the MAC East. Ohio, Bowling Green, and Akron are all in different states of disrepair and are a year away from being a year away from contention.

Mountain West

Pound for pound, the Mountain West was the most fun conference in 2021. The West division had so many good to great QBs in it and a top defense. The Mountain division wasn’t easily handed to Boise State, which made the last weekend of the regular season interesting. This year is just as interesting because Boise State now has pressure on them to do well and at the very least make the Mountain West Championship Game. Defending champion Utah State and Air Force look to linger and spoil the Broncos chances once again.

On the other side of the conference, Fresno State returns Jake Haener (after a brief scare) and Jeff Tedford as the head coach. They look the strongest out of the teams who finished top of that division last season, as San Diego State and Nevada both take a step back. San Jose State looks to potentially make a run if they can overcome the bad injury luck they had last season. New Mexico, UNLV, and Hawaii are trying to get through the season.

Sun Belt

The Sun Belt was the bigger of the Group of 5 offseason, bringing in Southern Miss, Marshall, and Old Dominion on top of James Madison to the conference. Marshall, with its star RB Rasheen Ali, look to immediately contend for the Sun Belt East. However, mainstays in App State and Coastal Carolina look to reign over the division and have their regular season meeting decide the division as it has the past two seasons. Louisiana still looms large on the other side of the conference, despite losing head coach Billy Napier to Florida.

The second tier down is intriguing to me. South Alabama, Georgia State, and Troy all look like they could be potential spoilers for the conference this season. Georgia State knocked off Coastal last season and were technically the division runner up because of that. Troy and South Alabama, along with a potential bounce back from Arkansas State, look to try and knock off Louisiana from their perch in the Sun Belt West. Texas State probably needs to make a bowl and hence why their position is there. The other newcomers to the conference, along with UL-Monroe and Georgia Southern look to build their way into the conference.

Previews

Conference USA has two interesting games for them. Because of the fiasco with Southern Miss, Marshall, and ODU flipping to the Sun Belt, the schedule shuffled around including these Week 0 games. North Texas goes to El Paso to take on the Miners in a game that could set the tone for both programs this season. Similarly, Charlotte goes to Florida Atlantic in a game both teams probably need to win if they want to make a bowl this season. Every other game, barring a major upset, should make any waves.

That’s all I have for you this week! Next week, I’ll do a giant tierlist of all Group of 5 teams including the Week 0 results, and preview a jam-packed Week 1 slate.