Welcome back to the 18S Group of 5 Tier List! One full week of games is (mostly) in the books and it did not disappoint. Let’s dive into the action.

The Week 1 Group of 5 Tier List

Week 1 Review

We Need To Talk About Boise

So perennial Group of 5 power Boise State lost at Oregon State 34-17. The Broncos struggled with QB issues, and were gutted by the Beavers secondary early in the game. The spark of hope from the Broncos came when Taylen Green entered for an inefficient Hank Bachmeier. Green was most effective on the ground, electrifying the Broncos fans in attendance with a 74 yard TD run. Ultimately, the passing game fell short as the Broncos couldn’t get any offensive momentum in the first half, which caused the downfall.

So this brings us to the Boise conversation. The Broncos have not really lived up to their billing as a G5 power in almost three years. COVID fueled 2020 aside, the Broncos have not really been in contention for a NY6 bowl since the first year in 2014. They also have failed to live up to the hype in the Mountain West. I’ve moved them down from NY6 aspirations down to Conference contenders. Time will tell if the Broncos can turn this around, but the result in Corvallis gives me pause for the Broncos short and long term futures in the Mountain West.

Other Headlines

One of the games of the weekend was down in San Antonio. Houston and Clayton Tune held off Frank Harris and UTSA in 3OT, 37-35. This was a QB battle from start to finish. UTSA took a 21-7 second half lead, before Tune and the Cougars made a roaring comeback. Tank Dell was the favorite target of the Cougars, finishing with 5 receptions, 2 going for TDs and the first of two 2-point conversions in the contest. The second belonged to Tune, who’s rush and flip in the final overtime period was the difference in the game. I think UTSA played well enough to show that last season was not a fluke and while I don’t think the New Year’s Six is in their future for 2022, their move to the AAC opens up that door more with this performance.

Elsewhere in the American, Cincinnati’s trip to Fayetteville was a bumpy one. Starter Ben Bryant started his Bearcat career with an INT on his first drive. The Razorbacks scored immediately after, and Cincy was on the back foot the rest of the way. The expectations weren’t necessarily high in terms of national expectations, but the Bearcats still clawed their way back to try and make this a game. Bryant threw two long TD passes to try and bring Cincy back, but KJ Jefferson was not letting that happen. Arkansas won 31-24. I still think the Bearcats and Cougars are on a collision course towards the AAC Championship, and probably a NY6 bowl.

The other great game of the weekend was down in Boone. A furious, 40 point comeback against the visiting Tar Heels was not enough. North Carolina escaped 63-61. If you haven’t seen the finish of this game, do yourself a favor and go watch it. It’s a spectacle my mere words cannot properly cover. However, the result means that the chances of App State making a run to a 12-1 season and a NY6 bowl fall solely on the shoulders of knocking off the Aggies on the road. Chase Brice played his team back into it, throwing six TDs through the air. The Mountaineers will be a tough out for anyone in the Sun Belt, especially if the crowd is what it was on Saturday.

The other heartbreaker for the G5 this week was down the road in Greenville. East Carolina, on the back of two missed kicks, fell short to NC State, 21-20. The Wolfpack tried multiple times to give this game to the Pirates, but the ECU offense wasn’t efficient enough, and the kicker couldn’t pull through. I think the only potential hiccup from any one of UCF, Cincy, and Houston making a run at the top of the AAC, could be in East Carolina.

Top Teams Wraparound

During the big primetime games, Coastal Carolina and Army were battling on the teal turf. I mentioned last week that this would be a clash of similar yet different offenses. However, the major difference between Army’s more traditional triple option to Coastal’s, is the QB play. Grayson McCall threw the ball more often and more effectively than his counterpart Cade Ballard. That turned out to be the difference in a 38-28 victory for the Chants. 

I mentioned that San Diego State was opening up a new stadium last week. The Wildcats of Arizona thought it would be a good idea to crash that opening game. Arizona wins 38-20. The story of the game for San Diego State was that the offense continues to struggle. Transfer QB Braxton Burmeister went 5-10 with only 51 yards passing. The other TD was a fluke play where the Arizona offense was backed up and the punter hit the ball into one of his protectors. Combined this putrid performance with the off the field stuff coming to the surface in the past couple of weeks, this seems to be a doomed season for the Aztecs.

Elsewhere, BYU made quick work of South Florida, despite a weather delay. Luckily for the G5 teams, no team of note lost their game against their annual FCS opponent.

Week 2 Preview

Headliners

Most of the games this week fall under the category of G5 vs P5, but there are still some interesting matchups. Houston travels to Lubbock to avenge their only regular season loss a year ago. BYU looks to do the same, hosting Baylor. Houston seems to be in a better position to knock off their Big 12 opponent on Saturday. 

For some G5 vs G5 games, we have a couple of independents getting a home game. Liberty will host UAB and Army hosts UTSA. I imagine that the Conference USA powerhouses will come out of their matchups with wins, but Army seems to be in better shape to knock off UTSA based on their Week 1 performance rather than Liberty over UAB. I am curious to see how UAB does against a tougher opponent after their FCS warmup last week.

Interesting Power 5 Games

Since this week is pretty heavy on the P5 vs G5 matchups, I decided to do something a little different. I’m going to rank these six games by the likelihood of the G5 win over their P5 team. The order will be least likely to most likely.

1. Marshall @ Notre Dame: We’ll dive into this more on the preview on Friday but I think this is fairly straight forward.
2. App State @ Texas A&M: This almost certainly won’t happen…but wouldn’t it be funny if App State pulled off a shocker in College Station? Imagine the meltdowns. Especially with the puffed out chests.
3. Georgia Southern @ Nebraska: I mean it’s Scott Frost’s Nebraska…nothing is off the table at this point.
4. Oregon State @ Fresno State: This is more of an indictment on Oregon State than Fresno State. This has sneaky game of the weekend potential. Remember that last year Fresno State pushed Oregon to their limits before knocking off UCLA.
5. Louisville @ UCF: You could have convinced me to swap this and the last one and I wouldn’t have batted an eye at it. Louisville getting crushed to Syracuse was a big WTF? result of Week 1. I think UCF’s drubbing of SC State is going to keep the train rolling through the Bounce House.
6. Colorado @ Air Force: I just don’t trust that Colorado can have any offensive rhythm against a triple option team. I think Air Force is going to get whatever they want. This offense combined with the seeming Boise slip give them an inside track to take that division in my eyes.

Top Teams Roundup

The other notable G5 vs G5 matchups have some interesting cross-conference implications. Central Michigan, after covering against Oklahoma State last week, now has to play potential spoiler South Alabama. This game can show how we may think these teams will perform during conference play, and how legit their shots at winning the conference are. East Carolina looks to rebound with another home game, this time against Old Dominion. The Monarchs are coming off of their win vs Virginia Tech, so it will be interesting to see how both teams deal with their Week 1 results. 

Louisiana gets their first true test as Eastern Michigan makes the trip to Lafayette. The Eagles are an interesting program; no longer at the depths of the MAC, but also not talented enough to crack the upper echelon. I’m not sure this game will be close, but I’m intrigued if this is close at the half. Finally, the defending MAC Champs Northern Illinois take a trip to Oklahoma to take on Tulsa. Tulsa played in a close loss to Wyoming on Saturday, and feels like they’re going to have to stop the NIU rushing attack to get a win. Finally, here’s a list of games that should see the bolded G5 team win but are worth noting just in case they don’t:

1. Boise State @ New Mexico
2. Kennesaw State @ Cincinnati
3. Memphis @ Navy
4. Gardner-Webb @ Coastal Carolina
5. Lamar @ SMU

That’s all I have for you all this week! Enjoy(?) Clemson-Georgia Tech tonight and enjoy the Week 2 action!