Notre Dame is still undefeated and slowly climbing up the polls, so that’s awesome. There remains a problem ahead of the Irish as the blue-chip teams haven’t had a hiccup yet. Ohio State nearly suffered one and comes out of Happy Valley barely alive.
18 Stripes Top 20 Poll
| RANK | TEAM | RECORD | LAST WEEK |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alabama | 5-0 | 56-14 W vs. Louisiana |
| 2 | Georgia | 5-0 | 38-12 W vs. Tennessee |
| 3 | Clemson | 5-0 | 27-23 W vs. Syracuse |
| 4 | Ohio State (+1) | 5-0 | 27-26 W vs. Penn State |
| 5 | LSU (-1) | 5-0 | 45-16 W vs. Ole Miss |
| 6 | Notre Dame (+3) | 5-0 | 38-17 W vs. Stanford |
| 7 | Oklahoma (+1) | 5-0 | 66-33 W vs. Baylor |
| 8 | West Virginia (+3) | 4-0 | 42-34 W vs. Texas Tech |
| 9 | UCF (+1) | 4-0 | 45-14 W vs. Pitt |
| 10 | Auburn (+2) | 4-1 | 24-13 W vs. Southern Miss |
| 11 | Washington (+3) | 4-1 | 35-7 W vs. BYU |
| 12 | Penn State (-5) | 4-1 | 27-26 L vs. Ohio State |
| 13 | Michigan | 4-1 | 20-17 W vs. Northwestern |
| 14 | Kentucky (+2) | 5-0 | 24-10 W vs. South Carolina |
| 15 | Wisconsin | 3-1 | BYE |
| 16 | Stanford (-10) | 4-1 | 38-17 L vs. Notre Dame |
| 17 | Miami | 4-1 | 47-10 W vs. North Carolina |
| 18 | Texas | 4-1 | 19-14 W vs. Kansas State |
| 19 | Michigan State | 3-1 | 31-20 W vs. CMU |
| 20 | Florida (NR) | 4-1 | 13-6 W vs. Miss State |
Out: Duke
In: Florida
Alabama only really has LSU and Auburn remaining, a pair of Top 10 teams yes but can they keep up with the Tide offense? Did you know that Baker Mayfield broke the all-time record for passer rating in a season last year? Did you know that 3 quarterbacks (Will Grier, Kyler Murray, Tua) are currently having better seasons? Tua is 8 points higher than second place Murray and 40(!!) points higher than Mayfield last year. Tua has also yet to throw a pass in the 4th quarter.
Georgia keeps plugging along a bit out of the spotlight, while I have to give Clemson credit for a “program” win over a pesky Syracuse team. No one won with the Ohio State result but someone had to lose and it was Penn State.
If there’s chaos in the next few weeks get comfortable with West Virginia moving into the Top 5, they may not be challenged for another month.
Who’s your top 1-loss team right now? I guess you’d maybe go with Washington because they have the most balance of the bunch without a glaring weakness anywhere?
Week 6 Games to Watch
*Game of the Week* Texas (+7.5) vs. Oklahoma [Dallas, TX] – Bright and early for the Red River Shootout! We know this rivalry game, like many rivalry games, can be super weird and wacky. This could be a good time as any for Oklahoma to trip up. I still think it will look a lot like last year and I don’t trust Herman to start beating ranked teams yet at Texas. Sooners win 30-24.
LSU (-2.5) at Florida – Like Oklahoma, we have another undefeated team (LSU) who looks like the better team and yet this is the type of spot in the Swamp that many teams have fallen in the past. The Tigers have Georgia next week, by the way. Then Alabama 2 weeks later, yikes. Hardest schedule in the nation. I bet a weird college football thing that happens is LSU loses this weekend and takes out Georgia in Death Valley next weekend. Gators win 21-20.
Florida State (+12.5) at Miami – I wonder how long it’s been since FSU was this large of an underdog in this rivalry? These teams are separated by 52 spots in the S&P+ rankings, that’s crazy! It’s tempting to think Miami really puts a hurting on Florida State, let’s go with a solid cover instead. Hurricanes win 38-21.
San Diego State (+14.5) at Boise State – The Aztecs offense has been struggling this year but they did beat Arizona State so maybe their still pretty decent? Broncos win 34-24.
Kentucky (+5.5) at Texas A&M – The Kentucky defense has been eating all season long. They’ll face a stiff test in College Station this weekend in a tough cross-division game. I think they will finally lose. Aggies win 27-20.
Auburn (-3) at Miss State – This line is closer than I thought it would be although it’s likely due to Vegas picturing a defensive stalemate with a 44.5 over/under. This could be the 3rd of 5 straight losses for Joe Moorhead. Welcome to the SEC! Tigers win 18-14.
Last Week:
6-1 SU, 3-4 ATS
Season:
28-12 SU, 20-20 ATS
If I was doing these ranking it would be very similar to yours give or take. I would put us 5th in front of LSU and I would put Ohio State in front of Clemson. The one team that I don’t know how good they are is West Virginia. I watched their game Saturday and they jumped all over Texas Tech and then let them rally before getting a pick 6 late in the game to seal the win. Their offense is scary good with weapons all over the place!
Oklahoma is going too destroy Texas on Saturday. I am talking getting taken behind the wood shed and thoroughly whipped. Same with Florida State.
Agreed.I think Clem should be knocked a bit for barely squeaking by ‘Cuse. LSU and UGA havent really done anything of consequence to date, so I’d go something like :
Bama
OSU
ND
Clem
UGA
LSU
If the committee voted today, I’d be surprised to see GA or Clem in there after not beating any quality teams yet.
LSU has wins over Auburn and Miami.
And Clemson barely squeaked by with a 3rd string QB (Granted, they weren’t dominating when Lawrence was in there). I don’t like ND’s chances against Syracuse if PJ is playing 2+ unprepared for quarters.
I see what you’re saying and agree with the point, but a reminder that Wimbush is still th backup QB and taking some first string snaps. If something happened to Book, ND doesn’t need to turn to Jurkovec, they have Wimbush to get back in there.
No, I was suggesting a 1-1 comparison to Clemson. 3rd string to 3rd string.
Gotcha, just saying the comparison isn’t needed since ND shouldn’t have to turn to their 3rd string this season for any reason.
I’d probably guess Clemson fans would have that same argument 3 weeks ago.
OK, so let’s go
Bama
OSU
ND
LSU
Clem
UGA
I know they’re unbeaten but I can’t get on board with UCF being ranked ahead of Washington, Auburn and Penn St. I believe all 3 of those teams but UCF on a neutral field if the game meant the same for both teams.
Is that last sentence to couch Auburn’s loss last year to UCF 🙂
Yes, I have a difficult time believing that after Auburn played 3 games last November/December in which they needed to win all 3 to make the playoffs, they win the first 2 then lose the 3rd, then after that they’re going to be enthused to play a consolation prize Bowl against UCF? I don’t think so
It’s interesting to see that Clemson basically did the same thing ND/Bama did to switch out their successful (but flawed) experienced starting QB for a younger player who, presumably, is more suited to run the offense better. And that’s 3 of the top 5-6 teams in the country!
Clemson’s transition went the worst of the three with the incumbent leaving the team immediately, and the hotshot new QB getting concussed early leaving a 3rd string guy to eke out a win. They’re lucky to have only NC State in a few weeks and a really easy schedule all the way to the ACC title game.
So it’s not just Notre Dame to have QB drama and questions! Really if anything, though awkward and a tough situation, Wimbush has stayed quiet and handled it with the most class and grace possible.
This 4 game redshirt rule seems like a lot of unintended and possibly unforeseen consequences like this
Clemson has had 4 (4!!!) QBs transfer (including Kelly Bryant) in 2018. Wild.
QBs are weird weird creatures and you can’t treat them like back in the day anymore
Also I didn’t mention above, but another top team with unusual circumstances is Georgia too (slowly) incorporating a top recruit true freshman into the mix more and more. Despite sophomore Jake Fromm being a 73% passer with great success and touchdowns and few turnovers. How do they keep both of those guys happy this season and next? Answer seems to be based on everywhere else: you don’t.
The days of stability are pretty rare at this point. WImbush’s path as a very high prospect to redshirt, then wait his turn, then start, then be benched and not immediately leave looks very rare. I assume though at this point he packs up and takes a grad transfer somewhere else next year. Given how much academics matter to him it would be hilarious if he went to like Harvard or Cal to get his MBA.
There’s also a chance (slim, but a chance) that Kelly sells him on his shot at the NFL being at receiver. Not likely, but I’m guessing he also realizes he’s not making it to the NFL as a QB. Maybe he sticks around at ND to work on that MBA while transitioning to WR?
Tier one wins – wins against FBS teams currently ranked in the top 25. Tier two wins – wins against FBS teams outside the top 25 who are at least .500 and top 60 in S&P+.
1. Alabama – Zero tier one wins, two tier two wins (Ole Miss and Texas A&M)
2. Notre Dame – Two tier one wins (Michigan and Stanford), zero tier two wins (both Wake and Vandy are outside the top 60)
3. LSU – Two tier one wins (Auburn and Miami), one tier two win (Ole Miss)
4. Ohio State – One tier one win (Penn State), one tier two win (TCU)
5. Georgia – Zero tier one wins, two tier two wins (Missouri and South Carolina)
6. Clemson – Zero tier one wins, two tier two wins (Syracuse and Texas A&M)
7. Kentucky – One tier one win (Florida), two tier two wins (Mississippi State and South Carolina)
8. Oklahoma – Zero tier one wins, one tier two win (Baylor, Army is outside the top 60)
9. West Virginia – Zero tier one wins, one tier two win (Texas Tech)
10. NC State – Zero tier one win, one tier two win (Virginia)
Missing the cut – Colorado has hilariously played both Nebraska and UCLA so far to go 0/0. UCF, also currently 0/0, may have a chance to get on the board with their first tier two win in two weeks against currently 3-2 Memphis as long as Memphis wins this week. Auburn 1/0 is the best one loss team right now despite being behind Washington 0/2, Michigan 0/0, and Penn State 0/1 in the S&P+ rankings.
I pretty much no longer believe there is a team on a different level from us outside of Alabama and would gladly take our date with LSU (who we have, of course, beaten already this year), Ohio State, or Clemson. Edit: also Oklahoma is no good.
I still think Bama, Clemson, and OSU would abuse our Offensive Line. Their pass rushers scare me. Playing LSU in game 1 of the playoff would be the dream.
I explicitly do not take responsibility for figuring out how to beat Alabama. There are literally close to a hundred college football coaches being paid 7-figures per year, not counting the thousands of lower paid coaches and staff backing them up, who can’t do it, so I’m not claiming I can do it. My position on Alabama is that I want our team to earn their shot and let the chips fall as they may.
Against Clemson or OSU the defenses on both teams would be the better units on the field, so the team that can eek out a little more efficiency or a couple more explosive plays would win. Also, as I said above to nd09, I am apparently a little more confident in the offensive line than the general opinion may be. Plus: We can throw screens now!
Has anyone tried food poisoning yet? Like at a NCG banquet just induce ipecac or something to the meat and get everyone completely sick before the game
It sounds like something Auburn might try to get back at Alabama for poisoning their trees.
Let’s not go too crazy. Ohio State is distinctly better than we are if Bosa is playing (which he would be if we get them in January). I think Georgia is untested and could similarly be in a tier above us. I do think the LSU/ND/Clemson/Oklahoma/Auburn is an unclear mix, and West Virginia is probably below that but will likely remain undefeated until November.
The offensive line is dramatically better than it was the first two weeks. I’ll grant we could use another data point now without Bars, but between OL improvement and with the newfound ability to distribute balls to play-makers playing against a great defensive end doesn’t seem like a team breaking weakness waiting to be exploited.
The “good” thing about Bars is that it happened now. We have 6 more weeks to get his replacement serious snaps and game experience. By the time Bowls/Playoffs come around, he’ll be near starter-level experience
I mean, Ohio State has distinctly better players at the following positions: running back, offensive line, defensive end (yes, ours are good. Theirs are clearly better if Bosa is playing), safety.
We have distinctly better players at the following positions: linebacker. That’s it, that’s the list.
They’d probably be 5-7 point favorites against us without Bosa, and more with him.
I’d put Dex up there with Dobbins/Weber. The other positions I’d agree with though.
Again, let’s not go too crazy. Dexter Williams has had one complete game in his college career. He’s a senior. JK Dobbins, while splitting carries, had 1403 yards rushing last year as a true freshman. Dex had 360 last year, which was a career high, and that was with the best offensive line in the country. To say they’re equivalents is nuts.
Also, Weber >>> our #2 RB (whoever it is).
My hot take is that I’d have Kentucky ranked higher than both WVU and Washington. Kentucky’s has played a decent schedule and is undefeated. Washington has played a decent schedule and has 1 loss. WVU has played nobody and is undefeated. Let Kentucky have the top 10 for a week before they choke against Jimbo (or really ride the momentum all the way to a slaughter at the hands of Georgia); it’ll be fun.