Oregon and Michigan State get their doors blown off, Wake Forest is toppled by a resurgent Clemson, but that didn’t stop your boy from having his best week of picks all season. I’m just gathering more information and getting better at this whole thing, right? There’s no way this week’s picks will flop!
Before we get to that, let’s take a look at the latest Top 20 poll from 18 Stripes.
18 Stripes Top 20 Poll
| RANK | TEAM | RECORD | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Georgia | 11-0 | 56-7 W vs. Charleston Southern |
| 2 | Cincinnati | 11-0 | 48-14 W vs. SMU |
| 3 | Alabama | 10-1 | 42-35 W vs. Arkansas |
| 4 | Ohio State (+1) | 10-1 | 56-7 W vs. Michigan St. |
| 5 | Notre Dame (+1) | 10-1 | 55-0 W vs. Georgia Tech |
| 6 | Oklahoma State (+1) | 10-1 | 23-0 W at Texas Tech |
| 7 | Michigan (+2) | 10-1 | 59-18 W at Maryland |
| 8 | Ole Miss (+3) | 9-2 | 31-17 W vs. Vanderbilt |
| 9 | Baylor (+3) | 9-2 | 20-10 W at Kansas St. |
| 10 | Oklahoma (+4) | 10-1 | 28-21 W vs. Iowa St. |
| 11 | BYU (+2) | 9-2 | 34-17 W at Georgia Southern |
| 12 | Oregon (-8) | 9-2 | 38-7 L at Utah |
| 13 | Michigan State (-5) | 9-2 | 56-7 L at Ohio St. |
| 14 | Wisconsin (+1) | 8-3 | 35-28 W vs. Nebraska |
| 15 | UTSA (+1) | 11-0 | 34-31 W vs. UAB |
| 16 | Iowa (+1) | 9-2 | 33-23 W vs. Illinois |
| 17 | San Diego State (+1) | 10-1 | 28-20 W at UNLV |
| 18 | Texas A&M (+1) | 8-3 | 52-3 W vs. Prairie View A&M |
| 19 | Wake Forest (-9) | 9-2 | 48-27 L at Clemson |
| 20 | Pittsburgh | 9-2 | 48-38 W vs. Virginia |
As anticipated, Ohio State put the hurt down on Michigan State after Mel Tucker signed a 10-year $95 million deal to stay in East Lansing. Fifteen years after we saw this mistake play out in South Bend, Tucker gets around 300% more money than Charlie Weis did from Notre Dame. It’s absurdity of the highest order.
I really fought the urge to drop Michigan State all the way out of our rankings.
Oregon was also pounded in Salt Lake City essentially blowing up any of their plans for making the playoffs. The Pac-12 weeps.
Besides their win at Notre Dame, we saw Cincinnati put up their best performance of the season with a thorough beating of a pretty good SMU team.
Can this weird Oklahoma State team that seems inverted from their recent history with a terrific defense and so-so offense keep up this run? Back in Norman, the Sooners kept their playoff hopes alive with a physical win over Iowa State. Now, we get a terrific and important Bedlam this weekend.
OUT: N/A
No one new in and no one out this week.
Conference Championship Update
AAC Championship
Houston vs. Cincinnati
We’re all set here as Houston has finished its league play and has the pleasure of traveling to UConn of all places to finish their schedule. Cincinnati has also clinched a spot but should they lose at East Carolina this weekend not only would they ruin any playoff hopes they still have they would be forced to travel to Houston for the league title game.
ACC Championship [Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC]
Pittsburgh vs. Wake Forest/Clemson/NC State
Pitt clinched their appearance in Charlotte last week with a win over Virginia. Wake Forest controls their own destiny with a win this weekend. Should the Demon Deacons lose and NC State wins, the Wolfpack hold the tie breaker by beating Clemson and having fewer Atlantic division losses than Wake Forest. For Clemson to get in they need to win and both Wake and NC State to lose.
Big 12 Championship [AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX]
Oklahoma State vs. Oklahoma/Baylor
This one is real simple. If Oklahoma State wins this weekend over Oklahoma we will see Baylor in the league title game. If Oklahoma wins, we’ll see a rematch of Bedlam.
Big Ten Championship [Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN]
Ohio State/Michigan vs. Wisconsin/Iowa/Minnesota
In the East division the winner of The Game is headed to Indianapolis. On the other side in the West, Wisconsin controls its own destiny with a win. If Wisconsin loses and Iowa wins, the Hawkeyes are in the league championship.
If Minnesota beats Wisconsin, AND Iowa loses, AND Purdue beats Indiana then we have a 4-way tie for the division. In that scenario, your Golden Gophers would win the division as Iowa would’ve lost to Purdue and Wisconsin, Purdue lost to Wisconsin and Minnesota, and Wisconsin lost the head-to-head with Minnesota this weekend.
Conference USA Championship
UTSA vs. Western Kentucky or Marshall
Barring disaster, this game will be hosted by still undefeated UTSA. Marshall and WKU play each other this weekend for the right to play the Roadrunners.
MAC Championship [Ford Field, Detroit, MI]
Northern Illinois vs. Miami/Kent State
Thanks to their 1-point win over Central Michigan on October 23rd, Northern Illinois has clinched the West division. Miami and Kent State play this weekend to win the East division–can Chuck Martin make it 2 MAC title games in 3 seasons?
Mountain West Championship
SDSU/Fresno State vs. Boise State/Utah State/Air Force
San Diego State is in with a win themselves or a loss by Fresno State. Each of Boise, Utah State, and Air Force are all tied atop the Mountain division with the Falcons holding the 3-way tie-breaker. If AFA loses and the other 2 teams win, Boise State gets in due to their win over Utah State on September 25th.
Pac-12 Championship [Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV]
Utah vs. Oregon/Oregon State/Washington State
Utah pulled away from the pack in the South division and clinched last week. For the Ducks, if they win this weekend they are in. If Oregon State wins and Washington State loses, the Beavers are in. If Oregon State wins and Washington State wins we have a 3-way tie in which the Cougars take the division as only one of their losses would come from within the division.
SEC Championship [Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA]
Georgia vs. Alabama
Sun Belt Championship
Louisiana vs. Appalachian State
The Cajuns have clinched the home game for the Sun Belt championship. Louisiana has made all 4 of the Sun Belt Championship Games, although they have yet to win one with 2 losses to Appalachian State in 2018 and 2019, plus last year’s game against Coastal Carolina being cancelled due to the pandemic.
Week 13 Games to Watch
Last Week: 6-1
Overall: 48-34
Ole Miss (+1) at Miss State
This line is worrisome if you’re the Rebels. With all the rumors of Lane Kiffin possibly taking this job or that job I wonder if Ole Miss is perfectly ready to slip up in this Egg Bowl? My heart says roll with Matt Corral, though. Rebels win 47-35.
Boise State (-2.5) at San Diego State
I genuinely do not think San Diego State is that good this year. They are also coached by Brady Hoke. Broncos win 29-24.
Ohio State (-7.5) at Michigan
Is the spread too small? It seems Vegas hasn’t overreacted to Ohio State punishing a kind of terrible Michigan State secondary. I think there’s enough spice in this matchup and Ohio State has just enough holes on defense to keep this close. Buckeyes win 32-27.
Wake Forest (-4.5) at Boston College
How much do you believe in Phil Jurkovec to keep pace with this Wake Forest offense? Myself, I’m not much of a believer. Go get that ACC title game, Wake. Demon Deacons win 35-28.
Wisconsin (-7) at MinnesotaÂ
The above scenario resulting in Minnesota taking the Big Ten West in a year when they’ve lost to Bowling Green and Illinois is something my mind cannot compute. Wisconsin has been really improving a lot since mid-season, too. Badgers win 30-23.
Oklahoma (+4) at Oklahoma State
Oklahoma State is facing 10 years between possible conference titles. They can lose this game and still win the re-match against Oklahoma next week to achieve that goal. Yet, the playoffs are still in play for both teams. Doesn’t it seem like it would be so Big 12-ish for these teams to split the matchups? Sooners win 17-14.
When is the last time Bedlam point total was 31? Like 1931?
Taking a quick look, about once every 12 years. They’re due!
Eric, it appears you have mistakenly advocated for someone to watch Wake Forest vs. BC. Please print a full apology and retraction.
#GoACC?
OSU just cares too much about Michigan, so I am not expecting that one to be close if the Buckeyes are focused. How about those Panthers — ACC championship bound!
Your statement about Brady Hoke seemed appropriate and spot on
Probably would be best for us if Oklahoma wins Bedlam, right? A pissed-off two loss Okie State taking out Oklahoma for the conference title definitely takes the Big 12 out of our way. A one-loss Okie State or Oklahoma Big 12 champ makes things complicated.
Even so, I can’t pull for Oklahoma. I just want them to go down in spite of myself.
Probably wouldn’t be terrible if Oklahoma went ahead and won the B12. I don’t think Oklahoma’s 12-1 resumé stacks up to ND’s 11-1. Plus, it puts to bed the “ND just gets their asses kicked every time they’re in the playoffs” notion. Oklahoma’s playoff performances might be worse.
OU is 0-4 with 35 point loss to (champ) LSU, 20 point loss to Clemson, 11 point loss to Alabama, and 6 point 2OT loss to UGA. Not as bad of performances as I thought I remembered, but all losses.
Didn’t they weasel back in a couple games late? Feels like they always get run off the field early just the same as Notre Dame.
At least in ND’s case, the team that has beaten them has won by more in the finals than the amount they beat ND by in the semis. So that’s just how it goes in the playoff, there can and will be lopsided games
Eh… Oklahoma would have a Big 12 championship and two quality wins over top-15-ish teams (both Oklahoma State). We would have no conference championship and one quality win over a top 20-ish team (Wisconsin). I’m pretty sure the committee would put Oklahoma ahead of us in that scenario.
I think any one-loss P5 champ is going to get in ahead of a one-loss ND in almost every circumstance imaginable. At the very least the Big 12 champ having two losses completely removes them from the picture.
But then you’d have to look at Oklahoma St’s body of work. Is it any good? Wins over Baylor and Boise St with 1 possession games vs Missouri St and Tulsa to start the year. Granted, they do have the #qualityloss to ISU.
(My hypothetical $ is on OU/OSU splitting their two games)
Relative to ND’s body of work, yeah, a Big12 12-1 is probably better than a ND 11-1 this season if OK St has beaten Oklahoma, Baylor (2x) and ND has beaten…(squints) Wisconsin. (Although, Wisconsin could still make that look good with an unlikely run, so who knows..)
I think you’re right too that likely the Big12 doesn’t have someone run the table and escape with one loss on the season, but I’m more with Brendan that if they somehow do produce a 12-1 champ, it’s bad news for Notre Dame’s playoff chances.
My ND playoff watch list says that we need at least two of these four things to happen to make it:
This assumes three things:
I think we’re slightly more likely to have one or fewer of those things happen than two or more, but I’ll be watching all of the games, including the Friday Bearcats game and the GT/UGA game on a second screen during the tOSU/UM game.
In terms of odds of happening, I think #4 is probably at 50%, #3 is probably 30%, #2 is probably 10%, and #1 is probably 60%.
However, if #1 happens (Georgia beats Alabama) in a very close fashion (say a late field goal or even OT), I could see Alabama staying ahead of us. That would be painful.
However, this is college football, so I’m still hoping for a real chaos scenario. Wisconsin wins the Big Ten. Cincy loses to Houston. Baylor wins Big 12. Georgia crushes Alabama.
Final Rankings:
1) Georgia
2) ND
3) Baylor
4) ???
I think playing Georgia, Ohio State, or Alabama in the CFP would be a guaranteed loss for us. I think we would be slightly favored against Cincy, Ok St, or Baylor. I think we would be slight underdogs against Michigan or Oklahoma.
If this madness comes to life they should just embrace it and give 12-0 UTSA a crack at #4. Why not?
I do appreciate this attempt at trying to get ND into the playoff and somehow not play a top team this season. If only we could be so lucky!
I think given those results it would be:
Not to be too heretical, but I really want Georgia. I think we have a close to even chance if we play like we have since the bye week. Georgia has gotten a lot of positive press for beating Arkansas after they beat Texas, who at the time was definitely back, handling 5-6 Florida in The World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party, and beating Clemson by a touchdown back with the Tigers couldn’t get their pants on.
We’ve had the Dawgs on the ropes twice recently and let them get away. Give us a chance at the end of a season with our guys playing their best ball.
Here are the scores of UGAs games.
10-3, 56-7, 40-13, 62-0, 37-0, 34-10, 30-13, 34-7, 43-6, 41-17, 56-7. The games you think are unimpressive, they won by a combined 81-10.
They have allowed 8 TDs all year. They haven’t scored below 30 since week 1. They have been the best team in the country by a huge margin every week of the season.
We have dominated the worst Navy team of the past decade, UVA with a backup QB, and GT with a backup QB.
They average 36.5 – 7.5. Our last 3 games we average 39 – 3. So the entire season, UGA has basically averaged what you’ve seen us do the past 3 weeks.
Yea I think it is delusional to “want” to play Georgia and think we have a chance. If we had the results the last 3 weeks against average to above average teams, then I get it. But we’ve played essentially 3 bad teams (VA at least bad without starting QB). Even getting better we are more the average between how we were playing at the beginning (against good defenses) and how we are playing now against bad teams.
This year we are clearly in Tier 3 so that it would be an uphill battle against any tier 2 team let alone Georgia who would clearly be the top Tier 1 team (perhaps with OSU).
The part of the analysis that I don’t really agree with is the concept that averaging out how teams play in minor games equates to how they’ll play in major games. The only comparable defense to either Alabama or Notre Dame that UGA has played was in game 1 and they only scored 10 points.
I really can’t think of a less predictive thing to know about how UGA will play against Alabama than that they beat CHSO and UAB by an average score of 56-7.
I do not see how we would score on Georgia. Their D Line would break us. I think they would outscore us with their Defense alone.
I hope we get to find out.
Sure, maybe Georgia isn’t the best team of the decade, but I fail to see anything that suggests they aren’t far and away the best team in the country.
They have also played the #16, #27, #34, #43, #48 defenses in FEI and scored 34, 37, 40, 30, 34.
They have played the #9, #13, #19, #28 offenses in FEI and held them to 17, 10, 13, 0.
Here are out ypp differentials for each game sorted by overall FEI rank
UGA – ND
#16 TENN (+2.4) – #7 UW (-1.1)
#19 ARK (+1.5) – #8 UC (-1.6)
#23 UK (+5.4) – #21 PUR (+0.8)
#26 AUB (+1.8) – #40 FSU (+0.2)
#30 Clem (+1.2) – #50 UNC (0.0)
#33 UF (+2.0) – #56 UVA (+2.5)
#65 UAB (+5.7) – #63 VT (+1.3)
#68 USeC (+2.5) – #69 TOL (+0.4)
#79 MIZZ (+3.9) – #72 USC (-0.7)
#113 VAN (+5.3) – #88 NAVY (+3.8)
CSU (+5.1) – #89 GT (+5.1)
We’ve been outgained in 6 games. The past 3 teams we dominated are all awful. Georgia has been beating up better teams all season.
There is absolutely nothing anywhere that points to us being anywhere near the level of UGA.
@gambit1077 – Go rewatch the Rose Bowl if you’re interested in ND/UGA
One final completion to Kmet in the 2019 game on that last drive and we beat UGA in Sanford Stadium and now we have an even better tight end than we did then.
I’m never coming over to the “We need to win smaller games rather than try to win bigger games” camp, or whatever that group calls themselves.
gambit1077 — I am not sure of the analyses, but, I love fighting spirit, and you have been showing some!
But now you’re comparing apples to screwdrivers. Neither the ND or Georgia teams now are the same as they were then. Additionally, I’d argue that this Georgia team beats that Georgia team and that ND team beats this ND team
Not that it matters much other than perhaps national perception for ND, but I can’t understand how Arkansas snuck into the CFP Rankings while Purdue was left out. Arkansas has 1 win over a ranked team (#15 Texas A&M), 3 losses to ranked teams, and a loss to 6-5 Auburn. Purdue has 2 wins over ranked teams (#14 and #16), 3 losses to ranked teams, and a loss to 7-4 Minnesota. Purdue sneaking into the top 25 could at least boost national perception of ND’s schedule down the stretch.
In this scenario, Purdue is represented by their big stupid drum and the CFP rankings are the ND visitor tunnel.
(But yeah, you have a good point! This is SEC bias, as the other MikeyB, Michael Bryan, just wrote in the GT Advanced Stats article: “There are few things the committee loves more than sticking a bunch of mediocre SEC teams in the 15-25 range.” and Arkansas is a great example of that)