Our friend Chris W. (@rakesofmallow) started an “ACC Fury Road” meme this year. It was an apt analogy for the deepest and most talented conference in the country. The Irish not only survived, but thrived, as they traversed the ACC gauntlet. They emerged with an impressive 12-6 record, exceeding media and fan expectations. After a regular season that included 5 and 6 game winning streaks, can the Irish pull off another streak at the ACC Tournament in Brooklyn?
Yes, technically the ACC Tournament started Tuesday, but the merciful exits of BC and NC State playing out the string don’t really count. The real action in the Barclay’s Center starts Wednesday, and we here at 18Stripes have our bracket breakdown and predictions.
Wednesday Match-Ups
Noon – #9 Miami vs. #8 Syracuse
Both teams are fairly secure in their NCAA tournament future, although of the two, Syracuse would likely benefit more from a solid resume-boosting win. Ken Pomeroy’s model favors the Hurricanes in a one possession game. The winner draws top-seeded Carolina to kick off Friday.
2:00PM – #12 Clemson vs. #5 Duke
The Flat Earth Society is heavily favored in the second game, but Clemson has the athleticism to give Duke problems. Jaron Blossomgame could go off in an attempt to extend his Clemson career and boost his NBA draft stock. Duke should advance, but you know the deal with 5/12 games. The winner here gets Louisville Friday afternoon.
7:00 PM – #10 Wake Forest vs. #7 Virginia Tech
The first game of the evening session is one with pretty clear stakes. Wake’s tournament resume would feel much more comfortable if they can beat out VT. Pomeroy’s model favors Danny Manning’s side in a close one. The winner gets FSU to open Friday’s night session.
9:00 PM – #14 Pitt vs. #6 Virginia
The evening’s final contest will determine who ND faces after enjoying a few days of cheeseburgers in the Big Apple. These two teams split the season series, each winning on their home floor. Pitt’s upset of Virginia feels like it was 2-3 seasons ago at this point, and the Cav’s destroyed Pitt by 25 in their final regular season game. As and Irish fan, it would be great to see Pitt get some shots and Virgina’s offense sputter, but Pomeroy gives Bennett an 82% likelihood of advancing.
Staff Predictions
We asked our 18S hoops writers to weigh in with some tournament predictions.
Tournament Dark Horse
Alstein: Virginia Tech/Wake Forest winner. A bit of a cop-out, but whoever wins gets FSU away from Tallahassee and Notre Dame in the semis. That’s a fairly easy path for two teams that I think are easily NCAA Tournament quality. Give me Buzz’s guys here, if I have to pick.
NDZibby: KenPom gives Wake a >20% shot to make the semis now that they’re in the R16. They get a solid but unspectacular VT team that they can beat and then an FSU squad who’s been up and down, especially away from home.
Paddy: I’ll take Miami. I think they’ll handle Syracuse, which would allow them to face a UNC team they have already beaten by 15. I don’t think they have the legs to win it all, but I think the Canes can do some damage.
Joe: Never underestimate the power of a guy who got robbed in the PoY voting. Jerian Grant proved that. Along with our own Bonzie Colson, John Collins built a strong case for the award. Wake is playing for their NCAAT lives, and if they can muster the legs to get past VT, I give them a solid chance against an FSU team that has struggled outside of Florida.
Who Makes The Finals?
Alstein: Louisville over Notre Dame. This actually pains me to say because I still think we owe them for the 2011 Big East semis, but I can’t see ND winning three in a row here. The Mitchell-Snider combo carries Louisville past three ranked opponents and into everyone’s Final Four picks.
NDZibby: Virginia over UNC. UNC runs out of gas after a tough run of Miami, Duke and Louisville and then Virginia back to back to back to back. Virginia, meanwhile, gets past ND in a tight one before getting an easier game against Wake Forest and then takes down UNC in revenge for earlier this season. They’re playing good ball right now after a February skid and will be a scary team come next week.
Paddy: Florida St over Duke. Florida State has cooled off considerably since they took the league by storm to begin the year. Everyone has said their depth will give them an advantage come tourney time; now it’s time for them to prove it. That depth combined with a relatively easy portion of the bracket makes them my pick.
Joe: I like Louisville advancing out of the top half of the bracket. They’re playing good basketball, and they’re used to spending a few days in NYC. From the bottom half, I really believe it is the winner of ND and Virginia. I pray we make shots, and if we do, I like the Irish over Louisville for banner #2.
Most Outstanding Player
Alstein: Donovan Mitchell. He struggled his last two games but has been a prolific scorer for a team that doesn’t have another one. He’s an easy choice if Louisville goes all the way.
NDZibby: Best player on winning team criteria gives it to London Perrantes, if for no reason other than the hair. If Wake makes the run to the semis, Collins will be a deserving choice that gets overlooked.
Paddy: Luke Kennard. Duke’s ultra-talented team started to really get going in the second half of the ACC slate, and I think they’ll make a run in Brooklyn. Kennard has been a steady scoring force all year, and I expect that to continue.
Joe: Two years ago, I picked Jerian Grant for this award, saying “Never underestimate the power of an eff-you performance.” Bonzie Colson witnessed that first hand, and learned his lesson well.
How Will The Irish Finish
Alstein: Finals loss to Louisville. In truth, either that or a quarters loss to Virginia. I’m making a bet that the Irish finally get over the hump after a big VJ Beachem performance after his dud against them in January. I’ll also take ND easily in the semis against any of the three potential opponents. Not convinced the Irish are really “top 2” good, but the bracket works in their favor here.
NDZibby: As much as I want to pick ND to take down Virginia, I just don’t think this team is a good enough shooting team to get the Virginia monkey off their back. It’s certainly possible and it’s not crazy to pick the Irish to make it to Saturday night (given the easy arm of the bracket that we’d find in the semis), but I’m not yet a believer that they get it done.
Paddy: I may be falling victim to the gambler’s fallacy here, but we just feel due to knock off Virginia. This UVA team falls into scoring droughts that their previous iterations were adept at avoiding, and provided the Irish can hit some 3s, I think they make it to the semis. The games with FSU have been tight and entertaining, but I think the Noles prevent the Irish from getting back to the ACC championship.
Joe: As I said on the RakesReport, I rewatched our game against Virginia, and the two words I used most often were “GO IN!” I think Brey finds a way to coax another great shooting performance out of his team and finally slays the Bennett dragon in style. From there, I really like what we did to FSU at home, and Barclay’s feels more like home to us than for them. If we were to draw Louisville in the final, they outshot us in the Yum! Center. I don’t see that repeating itself, especially if they’re coming off a physical war with UNC. We shot 28% from deep and lost to them. We shot 44% from deep and beat them. Our numbers at Barclay’s look a lot more like 44 than 28. Jack should call the embroidery company and start sizing up rafters.
Stay tuned to 18Stripes for more post-season basketball coverage. And if you’re looking for something to do while waiting for the Irish to tip off Thursday night, check out the Rakes Report podcast with the Indy Star’s Laken Litman discussing spring ball and Irish hoops, along with yours truly weighing in on the state of ND’s basketball program.
I’m feeling a semifinal loss to Florida State. The Wake Forest hype train is a little too hot right now, they still have lost 12 games and got blown out at Florida State.
Glad to see the back of Georgia Tech. I tend to root for ACC teams in the big dance, but that team was a tough watch. They’ll keep getting better under Pastner but I would rather see an Illinois State or even a Clemson make the tournament this year.
Is Clemson over Duke enough to get them in the tournament? Maybe…probably depends on other bubble chaos.
Astute as always. FSU certainly has the firepower to beat us, but if we roll past Virginia, I like us in that game.
Agree on the Wake train, but the bubble is weak and getting Manning back in the tourney with Collins is a pretty compelling story line.
I can’t imagine Clemson getting in without winning the whole thing. They finished 2 games behind GT in the regular season and most people have them out.
Clemson is 35 in Kenpom and 67 in RPI. GT is 80 in Kenpom and 94 in RPI. I think that’s enough to bridge the gap in quality wins and ACC record.
Beating Duke might not be enough but if they followed up that by beating Louisville, I think they get in (certainly if they went on to beat UNC in the semis, that would be more than enough).
Enjoyed the podcast, never heard that one before. It caused me to look up Eric Katenda and see he had a decent year at North Texas. Good for him.
I find KemPom’s site a bit hard to navigate. What does it say our percentage odds of winning the tournament are?
6.8% probability to win it all. http://kenpom.com/blog/2017-acc-tournament-forecast/
That seems… about right? Maybe a little high?
My take, which seems really lame now having seen the KemPom odds: UNC should win this. They’re the second most talented team in the league, and have a much easier road than the most talented team (Duke).
I just don’t love our draw. My feeling on this will dramatically change if Pitt pulls off an upset, but man, why did it have to be Tondon Bennantes again.
Even the Florida State game — which I agree would favor us in a vacuum — would have an added element of difficulty being on the second night of a back-to-back. FSU plays so many guys that they’d easily have fresher legs than us and they’re already the more athletic team.
I would, however, like our chances if we got to the final and were matched up against Louisville.
FSU’s rotations have shortened up, and we’re not playing any less guys than when we won the whole damn thing. I agree that drawing Virginia sucks, but get by them, and I really like us.
Early session in the books. Boeheim decides to burn it down on his way out the door and Clemson does very Clemson things down the stretch. So far, things are holding to form.
Ha don’t disagree about his Greensboro comments, it doesn’t expand the brand and is just a convenient site that the blue bloods like. Pittsburgh, Boston and Chicago/Indy would also be fun cities to have it in.
UVA had to work fairly hard for that win. If Guy missed some of those heat check shots, that would have been a nail-biter. I think Rex/Steve can contain him, he’s not a huge threat to drive and those 2 have the discipline to stay tight on him on the perimeter. Perrantes abusing Farrell is the matchup that really concerns me. Should be fun.
Yeah, I joked on Twitter that I could put up some sort of technical analysis, but we were 3-16 from deep against them at home, and a lot of those were wide open looks. Stop Perrantes as best you can and make some from deep. That’s the recipe. Simple, but true.
Pittsburgh??!?? Wha???
The shooting has been too spotty. Even if we get past UVA, I think Louisville is the strongest team in the field. They’re my pick to get it done, but I’ve been wrong about a Brey team once or twice before.
Guess I’ve been wrong about Pitino teams before too.
Wow. Nice to see they finally got the UVA monkey off their backs