Marcus Freeman may very well benefit from an explosive, difficult to defend offense in his second turn at the helm. By keeping it in the family and tabbing Gerad Parker as OC, Coach Freeman may have found the perfect driver for a neon-colored, nitrous-boosted, titanium reinforced 2023 ND Offense,
A year ago around this time, this space hosted a prospectus for a “space force” version of the 2022 ND Offense (the Lorenzo Styles header photo truly does make the post a collector’s item). Obviously what we ended up seeing was very far from what I (or anyone) expected. I would submit that you could perhaps squint at the Ohio State and (especially) Marshall games and see Tommy trying to really drive toward an NFL look for last year’s team, but I digress.
I THINK PARKER AND THIS YEAR’S PERSONNEL MIGHT BE A MATCH MADE IN HEAVEN
Reviewing Parker’s resume, I think a few formative itdems stand out:
1. He played WR under Hal Mumme at Kentucky in the early days of the Air Raid
2. He coached WRs under Doc Holliday for the uber-prolific early 2010s Marshall offenses, which could really go fast and set up quick reads for QBs to either stay with a run or get the ball outside
3. He coached on the very RPO-heavy 2019 Penn State offense
4. He was OC at West Virginia under Neal Brown, who made a name for himself running the NASCAR high-speed offense for the Senator Thomas W. Tuberville Texas Tech teams
So what might you say Parker has really been steeped in, philosophically:
- The importance of key reads (RPO or otherwise) to punish the defense for trying to cheat against one particular scheme (especially the run)
- The power of tempo to keep defenses on their heels, locked into suboptimal substitution packages, and ultimately tired out.
- Do I think this means the Irish are going Air Raid this year? No, far from it. I don’t think that’s Freeman’s style and I honestly don’t think a player-centric coach like Freeman would have so much trust in Parker if Gerad were a philosophical zealot for one particular scheme. That said:
THE ROSTER SETS UP WELL TO USE TEMPO AS A DEADLY WEAPON THIS YEAR
Imagine it’s 3rd and 1. The Irish roll out a personnel grouping of:
- RB Estime (7)
- RB/WR Tyree (25)
- WR Merriweather (5)
- WT Thomas (83)
- TE Evans (88)
Given the short yardage situation, you’d probably see a lineup along the lines of (note: please forgive this terrible diagram as I did it in the car):
There’s a lot to like here for ND:
- The talent along the OL is such that they can always get two double teams/combos involving an All-American candidate, not to mention a plus blocker in Evans and an above-average one in Thomas
- They have two dudes in Thomas and Estime who can block in space
- Both WRs on the field are big bodies (especially Merriweather). It would be very dangerous for the safeties to commit downhill lest a play action call leave a big bodied WR in one-on-one coverage downfield against a smaller corner (and Hartman is a proven commodity in these situations – see the video below)
- Oh, and Estime is a hellacious ball carrier.
So, lots of good options for the offense here. You can play it straight up and have all the big bodies lead for Tyree, do something quick hitting to Estime on the weak-side where numbers are better; motion Thomas, flip Evans, etc. So go ahead, stipulate a conversion. Give it some gas, Gerad! Here’s what the next play could look like if you don’t give the defense a chance to substitute:
Now the defense is in a real quandry. The horns of this particular dilemma could be explained as: What Do You Do With Your Safeties?
- Decide you don’t want to leave a CB 1-on-1 with Merriweather, another CB 1-on-1 with Thomas, and (most frighteningly) a linebacker 1-on-1 in the slot against Tyree? Well, in that case you’re playing two-high. Two-high, by the way, will leave you with 6 defenders in the box against 6 blockers (half of whom are All-American candidates) and 2 potential ball carriers (one of whom is Audric Estime). This also leaves you with an unfavorable coverage matchup on Evans
- Decide you’d rather shut down the run and make Hartman beat you? Well in that case you’re playing zero or 1-high. That means you’re counting on winning your one on one battles on the outside, and a loss on any one could result in points (especially the Sam backer on Tyree, where anything from a streak to a bubble could be trouble). The big swing here (and perhaps for the season) is Merriweather: if he can prove a tough-to-very-tough downfield assignment one-on-one ND will be tough to stop.
- Defenses can try to aggressively pattern match via a Dantionio style Cover 4 look and have the secondary close to the line and adaptively smothering whatever specific play the offense attempts, but time has shown that offenses can feast on that type of scheme if they’re able to use the whole field and have a QB who knows how to process quickly and where to place the ball against 1-on-1 coverage.
Weirdly, it just so happens that ND has a QB in Sam Hartman has a ton of experience with post-snap reads and going big in the matchup-hunting game. Parker has been around offenses that have made their living with just the same. Could be fun.
A lot of times people tend to think of Up-Tempo Offenses as being ones loaded with quick/speedy receivers. Teams going 4 wide and trying to run 100 plays per game. Those Texas Tech offense that are referenced here, for example.
But I agree 100%, the ND personnel this year are extremely well-suited to an uptempo style. Thomas can either be a big WR on the outside or an extra TE on the inside. Estime can be a single-set RB with Tyree out in the slot, or bring Tyree in close and let Estime lead. If you can complete a 7-8 yard pass to Thomas/Evans/Tyree on 1st down, I would go no huddle every single time. Now you’ve created a situation where you can pound it on the ground two straight plays to pick up the first, or you can use play-action to try to get it deep over the top.
I wouldn’t necessarily want to be a team that goes 100% uptempo all game, because our overall depth might not be suited to it (a little shorter in the RB and WR rooms than I would like, plus who knows how healthy the TEs will be). But almost any time we have 2nd or 3rd and short/medium, I would be trying to get tempo going if Thomas is on the field or Estime and a 2nd RB are on the field.
I’m all for this; flexible personnel on the field that go feasibly pull off a 3 wide or i-form back to back plays. Count me as optimistic as we pull farther away from kelly’s influence on the QB room: new HC, OC, QB. I have to hope we can see less nervous QBs and a non purple faced coach. For these next few months, I live in blissful hope!
Agree 100%. Think this could be a helpful tool in the red zone as well
Yeah, this is just gut and I have not data to back it up, but it feels like over the past few years we’ve tended to do the opposite in the red zone; grind things to a snails pace while trying to get the perfect personnel and perfect playcall together. Going hurry up with this group could be a really good idea, especially inside the 5.
Unlike last year, I think this year’s optimism in the offense is justified. Between the massive upgrade at QB and at least marginal upgrade at OC, I think this will be the best ND offense since 2005/2006.
The big questions, IMO:
-Will the OL need 3-6 weeks to gel like they have the past two seasons? Was that a Hiestand problem, a personnel problem, neither, or both? Fortunately, we have more runway starting with Navy (knock on wood) rather than at OSU and at FSU.
-Can Meriweather be a Maurice Stovall-like deep threat? Huge WRs are great, but we really need someone who can either get behind the defense or, like Stovall, be a serious jump ball threat in the endzone. Just trying to bully defensive backs with size won’t take full advantage of Hartman’s skills, I think.
-Very curious to see the dynamic between Freeman and Parker. Freeman having an OC that he chose to hire (Ludwig saga aside) and trusts might help cut down on game management issues.
And hopefully Parker won’t have to junk the installed offense three after three games and throw together a new on in the middle of the season, unlike another OC we can name.
How will this offense compare to 2019 LSU?
You feel like someone dropping their Harvard Law credentials in a football blog comment thread would have the wherewithal to discern between speculations as to ideal schematic style for a given set of personnel versus simple predictions of gross production
Don’t worry I’m not smart
(And fine alright I’m done making this joke; it has been a year. I basically agree with everything in this post fwiw)
all good just a little good old fashioned comment thread beanball
Imagine the upside of this year’s offense if Sam Hartman just had Tyler Buchner’s arm strength!
Just ask the stadium turf about Buchner’s legendary arm strength.
wow. wake had some dudes at receiver
Agree with ACS and Mike Healy that Meriweather making a jump makes a huge difference. I’m a Meriweather doubter, FWIW. If he hasn’t shown it yet, I’m worried he doesn’t have “it”.
Also there’s a lot of assuming that Chris Tyree can catch footballs.
I AM optimistic that if either of those things turns out to not happen, we have freshmen who could jump in by game three or four, particularly James on the outside and Flores in the slot.
And I believe Hartman will make all of our pass catchers look better.
I think expectations are too high on Merriweather in 2023 in some regards for the sunniest vision of what he could be, but it’s foolish to write him off after a true freshman season where he had some injury issues. He’s got plenty of time to develop into a great player and starting slow as a WR would hardly make him a unique case. He should be a lot better in 2023 than he was in 2022, by any regard. Based on all reports, he’s got all the talent and ability to be a very good player.
I can understand if you watch all the games on TV wondering if Meriweather has the ability that you’ve heard hyped a lot, but I think you should feel free to be excited about him. The degree to which Pyne’s arm strength limited the offense last year was legitimate and significant.
If you want to use a free play diagramer, I recommend go army edge football. It also has 3 d visualization.
I didn’t know the air raid connections, very interesting.