This post is about the 2022 offense.  Specifically, about how it’s time to get aggressive. At a high level, let’s look at the challenges and opportunities our brave Leprechauns face on the glorious side of the ball:

Challenges

  • We have a young quarterback who has a lot of talent but will need to play over mistakes
  • We are talented but thin, thin,  thin at receiver and running back

Opportunities

We’ve got some really nice and complimentary pieces on offense, if we can get good at the interior run game. Get above 5 ypc consistently between the tackles and a lot of things will start to come together. Consider:

– Styles, Tyree and Mayer can all be dangerous on the perimeter in their own ways

– Buchner can be extremely dangerous on the perimeter with even a small advantage vis a vis inside backers and safeties

– Styles, Mayer and Davis can all be dangerous down the seam

– the OTs won’t need much help in pass protection which will open up a ton, especially when it comes to play action

 

Prognosis

We need to go full Freejack. What does that mean? It means maximizing the explosiveness of the offense. We need our big plays to be very big, and to do that we need to maximize the quality and quantity of one-on-one matchups we get in the passing game.

That will actually begin with establishing a pain-in-the-ass interior run game, and if/when we do that, fans of offensive football just might be in for a fun sexy time.

Don’t take my word for it. Look to no less an authority than 2019 LSU Defensive Coordinator Dave Aranda for a synopsis as to what — even before getting into the sublime talents of Joe Burrow and Ja’Maar Chase — made that squad’s offense such a hellacious challenge for opposing DCs. Over at America’s War Game (a must-subscribe substack if one is into this side of college football), Ian Boyd has a pair of posts up detailing a conversation he recently had with Aranda about the way lightning was bottled for that particular squad:

Dave Aranda: …one of the things would be, are we saying that the talent is equal on both sides? Between LSU and the other teams?

The two things they did was run inside zone really well, and you had Clyde who could bounce and cut and (gesturing) here, here, and here (left, right, and straight) then the other thing they did was they got five out continuously.

(Narrator pause)

He means they’d get five receivers out into routes with only five left to block for the quarterback. With inside zone, that play is most effective when the running back can read linebacker fits and cut to run where they ain’t.

And prior to that, LSU for years, was max protect and bring people in and they were only getting three guys out. But that particular year they got EVERY body out. I remember in spring ball the walks from the practice to the coaches office just like, walking with the coaches and I’d hear them confront it, they didn’t want to do it, “this is a weakness if we get five out.” And for sure what a strength it was at the end.

(Narrator pause)

This is kinda hilarious. He’s saying the LSU coaches were terrified to follow through on Joe Brady’s plan to be so spread oriented and leave just five to protect the quarterback. For whatever reason, Brady and whoever was with him were able to convince or force the other coaches to go along with it.

PASSING GAME – IDEAL POSSIBILITIES

To illustrate the types of alluring options that present themselves in the passing game when a team can credibly commit to 5-man routes, Boyd zeros in on one concept in particular, one with option routes to each side of the formation:

Boyd:

You have Y-stick on the bottom and then the dreaded weakside option play in the boundary. Y-stick is a classic West Coast scheme where you have three receivers to one side and the innermost runs at the linebacker and either stops and turns if he’s in open space or breaks outside if someone matches him from the inside.

Traditionally the X receiver would run a go route to clear space and the H receiver would run a flat route. The gist of the play is to have the option “find space” route in the middle, then a flat route to hold a flat defender from bracketing the option route, and a go route to clear out another defender.

LSU liked to have the slot receiver run the go route so instead of a normal go/fade route it’d be a slot fade route. The slot fade is one of the most dangerous routes in all of football, because the defender playing it in man coverage doesn’t have the sideline to help him. The receiver can go inside or outside and just run to open grass, there’s no way to play it 1-on-1, you almost have to have help or you’re at the mercy of a fast receiver and a good throw.

Well that’s even harder in light of the stick route, which is designed to isolate the inside receiver on a middle linebacker who probably isn’t a starter because of his awesome ability in coverage. Y-stick with a slot fade is an extremely difficult play to defend, Lincoln Riley has multiple versions of it in his offense.

The weakside option concept takes place on the backside. After a team has already done what they can to try and deal with the stress of the Y-stick/slot fade issues, now you have the weakside option cleaning up whatever is left over to the short side of the field. What Sean Payton did very effectively here, and Joe Brady took for use with the LSU Tigers, was to put his best option route runner in the boundary slot (or to the field at times) to run the option route.

. . .

The danger of 5-out is the offense can get any receiver on their team in an advantageous position to deal damage and the defense doesn’t have much recourse. Say you’re the defense and you have a big, powerful inside linebacker. Not even two, just one, and you’re in dime but you like having him on the field because he’s a great run blocker.

Who is he covering on these 5-out concepts? Let’s say he’s the Mike and you decide to keep him in the box and protect him from having to venture out in much space. Against 5-out he can be targeted on weakside option . . .

If you squint you can kind of see this mapping onto something like ND’s personnel. A scheme-up of the above play in which Tyree is the R, Styles (or Davis) the X, Mayer is the Y, Davis (or Styles or Lenzy) is the H and Colzie is the X would be enough to really stress any team on the schedule not named Clemson.

 

THREE KEY QUESTIONS

Of course, ND 2022 has something less than the transcendent talent of 2019 LSU. Whether or not this year’s Irish can present a threatening facisimilie comes down to three things, in order of importance:

1- Can the line (and friends) create lanes in the run game? At the core of the idea here is that Alt and Fisher are going to provide something close to a negative image of the tackle play quality ND saw most of last year. We all recall the agony of two man routes against Cincinnati while ND held eight men in to protect against a three man rush. Even with stellar bookend play, however, ND (particularly considering its relatively thin talent distribution among the skill positions) will need defenses to keep their gloves in front of their noses if they want to break big plays on the regular. To precipitate that, they’ll need to have a credible and painful jab established.

The beautiful thing here? The personnel set up nicely for this. The same 11 personnel grouping outlined in the dual option route above could just as easily set itself up for a QB draw with a lead blocker (a la the play Brandon Wimbush scored his first TD on vs. MSU in 2017), motion Mayer across for some iso action – you can do a lot. The point is, though, the defense has to believe ND will pound it right at them all day if they want to buy that extra beat they’ll need to break big ones in the type of five-out scheme that will take advantage of their plus matchups (Mayer, Styles, Tyree/Davis sorta) and superior tackle play.

 

2- Can one of the RBs be a two-way threat?

It’s easy to imagine Chris Tyree dusting an isolated defender on a vertical route. Bursting through an arm tackle on an inide zone play? Less clear. Similarly, I think most here can imagine Audric Estime ripping off gashes between the tackles, but putting stress on the defense in the pass game? Ask again later. If ND ends up in a position (as it has many times) where run/pass tendency is being tipped off by personnel the whole conceit gets pretty threadbare. Again, against Cal or whomever a guy like Estime can probably make hay up the field but against OSU or Clemson it’s likely to be a very different story.

 

3 – Can another receiving threat break through?

With all due respect, it’s unlikely that the non-Styles, non-Mayer elements of the receiving corps distinguish themselves much in the minds of opposing coaches when it comes to gameplan priorities. Just one of Davis, Lenzy, Colzie, Thomas, Merriweather, et al emerging as “A dude who will ruin your day” would make things categorically harder for opposing defenses from a pick-your-poison perspective, and categorically easier on Tyler Buchner from a decision-making perspective.