Who has the stomach to dig into an Irish football post-mortem after watching the abysmal funerary procession that was the 2016 season? Well, fortunately (?) for all you fans out there, we here at 18 Stripes have stomachs made of cast iron and intestinal fortitude of the type that inspires legends, so we’re up to the task. Or, you know, maybe it’s just an obsessive need to write about Notre Dame football, but we’ll pretend we’re Alec Baldwin in Glengarry Glen Ross and we’re about to open our briefcase. Off we go, then, on a quest to understand how exactly Brian Kelly ended up with a set of steak knives in 2016 and missed out on the Eldorado.
Kicking Off The Irish Football Post-Mortem
Let’s take a look at exactly how bad the 2016 season was, historically.
- 1956: 2-8, Terry Brennan
- 1960: 2-8, Joe Kuharich
- 2007: 3-9, Charlie Weis
- 2016: 4-8, Brian Kelly
That is a comprehensive list of eight-loss-or-worse seasons, and the men responsible for them, in the entire 128-season history of Notre Dame football. Terry Brennan lasted two more seasons after the 1956 debacle, going 13-7 before giving way to Joe Kuharich. Kuharich never topped .500 in four seasons, going 5-5, 2-8, 5-5, and 5-5 before Hugh Devore took one for the team in 1963 and kept the seat warm for Ara’s 1964 arrival. Charlie Weis, as you may remember, never recovered, going 13-12 over the next two seasons before being dumped for Brian Kelly.
Of course, it’s tempting to draw parallels between Kelly and the most unfortunate of his Irish predecessors. Like with so many things about Kelly’s tenure, though, we find on closer inspection that he doesn’t really have parallels: Kelly’s 2016 season was substantially better, or perhaps we should say less horrific, than each of those other nightmares. Here’s the point differential for each of those seasons:
- 1956: -159
- 1960: -77
- 2007: -148
- 2016: +37
Yes, in a statistical anomaly that truly highlights the absurdity that was Notre Dame football in 2016, the Irish posted a 0.333 win percentage and a positive point differential. More on that in a bit.
Kelly’s average point differential across seven Notre Dame seasons is +89, and this year was his lowest differential. Charlie Weis’s average across five seasons was +35. Kuharich’s average across four seasons was -42. Brennan’s average across five seasons was +36. One of these things is not like the others, one of these things just isn’t the same… As noted above, Kelly’s Notre Dame record falls into something of a no-man’s land. By just about any measure, he’s clearly better than the guys who have failed at Notre Dame; likewise, by just about any measure, he’s nowhere near the guys who have been successful. That’s a topic for another post, no doubt, but the main point to pull from it right now is that we shouldn’t be so fast to equate Kelly to Weis, Kuharich, and Brennan. What’s more, with the notable exception of Ara Parseghian, the legends of Irish lore have all turned in some clunkers – Rockne went 5-4 in 1928 before going 19-0 in his final two seasons, Leahy went 4-4-1 in 1950 before going 23-4-3 in his final three seasons, Dan Devine went 7-4 before going 9-2-1 in his final season, and Holtz went 6-5-1 in 1994 before closing out his Irish tenure 17-6. There’s hope for a turnaround. On the other hand, the common thread there is that none of them lasted more than three years past their down year, and the one that even went that long had a nervous breakdown.
Well, now that we’ve cheered you up, let’s take a look at what I believe are some of the contributing factors for the untimely demise of the 2016 season.
The BVG Effect and the Booker Corollary
Let’s just get this out of the way first: The decision to retain Brian VanGorder after last season was an emotional one, and it likely cost the Irish at least four or five wins in 2016. In the offseason I said it made sense to give VanGorder one more year, but in hindsight it’s painfully obvious that in addition to what we all saw on the field there were plenty of things Kelly should’ve seen in his players and his practices that set off major alarms. There was a highly toxic mix of confusion, poor fundamentals, and morale issues that were directly caused by the way VanGorder orchestrated Notre Dame’s defensive strategy. Kelly’s decision to completely delegate defensive responsibility to his good friend and trusted adviser was very nearly the nail in his Notre Dame coffin.
Special teams were obviously disastrous all season as well, leading thousands of Notre Dame fans to wonder just what exactly Scott Booker is doing to justify drawing a paycheck. Harsh, perhaps, but this is a results-oriented business, and by the results it’s a fair question.
This had to be said, but I don’t want to devote too much time to it. Everyone agrees on it now, and in any case I believe it’s more symptom than disease – we should be interested not so much in what the BVG Effect and Booker Corollary were, but why they came to pass.
Ever onward…
Player Leadership
Nick Martin. Ronnie Stanley. Steve Elmer. Will Fuller. Chris Brown. Sheldon Day. Jaylon Smith. Joe Schmidt. Keivarae Russell. Mathias Farley. And, yes, Max Redfield.
Again, in hindsight, I’m not sure how I underestimated the loss of these guys so badly. They contributed at different levels and in different ways, but that is an absolutely enormous leadership void to fill in one year, and for the most part with guys who had never been in a leadership role at Notre Dame. This team lacked a steadying veteran hand on either side of the ball, and it showed in the way games unraveled late repeatedly. There are multiple reasons why a team might go 1-7 in one-score games (the main reason we have that +37 point differential despite our record), but a lack of player leadership is certainly a major contributing factor. This has a little bit of the disease to it, but also still a bit of the symptom.
External Factors
Refereeing decisions had an outsized impact on a few games – Texas, Navy, and Virginia Tech come to mind. The flukiest of special teams flukes, the fumble-via-wayward-bounce-off-an-unsuspecting-blocker’s-leg, opened the floodgates in one loss and added undue difficulty to a win. The ACC’s decision to play the Notre Dame – NC State game in the midst of a literal hurricane was shockingly bad, even to someone who is extremely cynical regarding conferences’ decision making processes.
My take on all that stuff is that it happens, and it doesn’t derail good teams. None of the three losses cited should’ve been close enough for officiating to matter. Same for the bad bounce against Michigan State. The NC State game is a little more whine-worthy, but even so, NC State found a way to win it. At worst it should’ve been a blip on the graph of the 2016 season.
A Coach Adrift
So where does all that lead us? I think the single biggest driver behind the 2016 collapse is something that in itself has multiple and complex drivers: Since 2012, Brian Kelly has steadily drifted away from what made him a successful head coach in the two decades prior. At Grand Valley State, at Central Michigan, at Cincinnati, and in his first few years at Notre Dame, Kelly had a clearly defined persona. He took calculated risks on the field, he made bold staff moves, he, ahem, wore his heart on his sleeve on the sideline, and he had a clearly defined approach to roster management. Most importantly, perhaps, was the giant chip he carried on his shoulder, the one that manifests itself when the guy we jokingly call BFUK comes out. Remember that smirk he gave the sideline reporter after the 2012 upset of Oklahoma? Remember “get used to it”? Those were vintage BFUK. It may not always be pleasant, but it’s an important part of being a successful coach – they need to have that extreme self-confidence that disdains people for ever having doubted them. Introspection is good, but so is edge, and I think Brian Kelly lost his edge a bit over the last few years.
Look at the VanGorder situation. Hiring VanGorder wasn’t an indefensible move; less than a year after getting pantsed by an Alabama team that said they knew what was coming, Kelly was veering away from Bob Diaco’s vanilla, bend-but-don’t-break scheme in favor of a strategy that promised more aggression and more complexity. Unfortunately, as is now quite clear, Kelly overcorrected pretty substantially. The warning signs were there in 2014, when we gave up 43 points per game over our final five regular season tilts, and were even clearer in 2015, when with a generational talent anchoring our defense we couldn’t stop giving up points and yards in bunches. To make matters worse, players were openly confused by the scheme and quietly stewing about not being able to unseat less talented theoretical Swiss Army knives (as Kelly hinted earlier this year).
Contrast the VanGorder situation with John Jancek and Joe Tresey. Jancek joined Grand Valley State in 1999 as defensive coordinator and linebackers coach, and followed Kelly to Central Michigan. Despite that connection, Kelly jettisoned Jancek after two uninspiring CMU seasons in favor of Bob Diaco and Joe Tresey, neither of whom he had any prior connection to, and was promptly rewarded by bringing home the Chippewas’ first conference title in 12 years. When Kelly went to Cincinnati, Diaco went to Virginia to work with Al Groh; Tresey stayed with Kelly and did reasonably well for two seasons. When Tresey interviewed for the Miami defensive coordinator position, though, Kelly fired him and brought Diaco back in. Even with the “next big thing” tag on the line for 2009 and with a DC who had done well with him at two programs, he didn’t hesitate – he cut the cord when he saw something he didn’t like. Trigger-happy? Maybe. But both of those dismissals stand in stark contrast to VanGorder, who pretty clearly had more leeway and more mulligans than Jancek and Tresey, and from a business perspective deserved neither.
The quarterback situation mirrors this somewhat too. Malik Zaire is by all accounts an extremely likable guy, and it seems like Kelly let his heart get the best of him. Gone was the BFUK who told the son of Notre Dame’s most accomplished football alum that he could either move to defense or stay at quarterback and never play, or who gave the gregarious Demetrius Jones the same ultimatum at Cincinnati. Kelly likes Zaire, and he let that overrule his better judgment. It wouldn’t have solved everything, but making the difficult business decision to give the QB1 role unequivocally to Deshone Kizer would’ve gone a long way to reducing the pressure on Kizer this year and providing clarity to the offense. And it may have won the Texas game.
Finally, as late Notre Dame marketing professor Brian Aikins was fond of saying, the devil is in the details. Kelly always had a reputation as a CEO coach, which is neither here nor there – in some cases it works, in some cases it doesn’t, and a coach has to do what feels most natural for him. However, something about the Notre Dame job – the non-football demands, the media demands, the fatigue of dealing with crisis after crisis that wouldn’t be an issue at another school – made him delegate to a dangerous degree, and he lost the pulse of the program. This is perhaps the biggest problem as it’s an undercurrent to all the other issues that manifested in 2016, including the catastrophic performance of the seemingly afterthought special teams units. I believe Kelly became too detached, too remote from the everyday realities of his staff and his players, and he completely missed the iceberg looming ahead. Much of the Irish malaise is clear in hindsight, and I want to be careful about retroactively declaring things obvious, but there are definitely some things Kelly should’ve noticed. With a shaky defense last year, he should’ve been more involved from Day 1 this year. With all those leaders moving on from the program, he should’ve been more attentive to player leadership issues.
Final Findings
Well… Let’s wrap up the 2016 Irish football post-mortem. There’s plenty of cause to be convinced that the death march continues apace. No Irish coach has ever recovered from a season like this, and in fact few coaches anywhere ever do. But there’s also cause to be optimistic; Kelly found tremendous success through his previous 25 years of coaching, and he didn’t find it by accident. Likewise, he didn’t just wake up in August and turn into a bad coach. It’s absolutely a tall order, and I wouldn’t even go so far as to call it probable, but I firmly believe Kelly is capable of turning it around. He needs to be very honest with himself and dig deep to restore the edge that carried him from Assumption College to the BCS national championship game; any offseason staff changes should be a good sign of how far the introspection extends. Once he restores the edge, he then has to put an enormous amount of effort in to reverse all the negative culture and morale effects of 2016, which is no simple task in itself. We need to complete two Hail Marys to have an exceptional 2017, and while the odds might be against us, at least we have a quarterback with a strong arm.
Go Irish.
Hey, what was third place in that Glengarry GlennRoss sales contest?
While a card-carrying member of the Fire BK club, there is reason for optimism going forward. ND finished 34th in F+ – http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/fplus. In 2015, the highest-ranked 4-8 F+ team was UVA at 78th, and the year before that it was Texas Tech at 82nd. The most recent close equivalent is 2013 TCU, which went 4-8 but finished 44th in F+; the next year, they went 12-1.
The advanced stats say ND was extremely unlucky (or extremely poorly coached in close games; interpretations may vary), and S&P+ says this should have been a 7-5 team instead of 4-8.
So that’s optimistic me. Pessimistic me says that, given the talent, this team should have played much better than a 7-5 equivalent against the garbage schedule we had this year.
I think there’s decent reason to see 2016 as the perfect storm that won’t be repeated, but I certainly won’t fault anyone who disagrees. You had a monumentally bad hire at DC being retained one year too long, a leadership void in literally every position group, chaotic restructuring of the staff dynamic after the BVG firing, some bad luck, and then as the year went on it just kind of snowballed. 2016 Brian Kelly was that little Dutch kid who keeps sticking fingers in the dam to stop the leaks and runs out of fingers.
Whether or not he can rebuild the dam in the offseason is the key. I think it’s a coin flip right now, and I’m generally in the “keep BK” camp.
I agree. Hopefully BK assesses and does bring back a little bit of his edge as the article says (great one) and they make enough good decisions that will be a boost for the program.
After careful deliberation, I would think possibly/probably new DB, ST coaches plus of course the new DC hire will go a long way in reshaping the team. Also would hope that Sanford gets a little more authority to reshape the offense and update some schemes and formations for next year and perhaps revamped strength program from lessons learned this season.
If it all comes together right, ND should be set for a decent shot at a last chance for Kelly. Hopefully no ‘banner of doom” worthy stories this offseason, but we all know that bad things can and will happen just now until next September, just a matter of what and how bad.
And just thinking way ahead, but if Kelly can somehow (against all odds) convince Kizer that it would be beneficial for him to come back for one more season, his chances of success go way up. Nothing against Wimbush, but the possibility of bringing back a senior for his 3rd year as starter would be a big, big building block, even though that seems very unlikely unless Kizer hears a lot of negative talk from the next level and is wise and patient enough to listen.
By the way, what is the source of/basis for all the Kizer draft talk? It all seems to me to be the result of the following: 1 “dime” TD throw vs. Texas + lauding of said throw by one Mr. Kirk Hirbstreit + 6’4″ kid with moderate-plus athleticism + ??? + 1 just-strong-enough arm = top ten draft pick. What in the hell has he done on the field to justify all the talk? I feel like I’m taking crazy pills.
Just goes to show how QB hungry the NFL is. They’ll draft a TE converted to QB who isn’t even much of a QB (Logan Thomas) in the 4th round for cryin out loud. Add in those qualities Kizer does have and his potential upside and he is a 1st round prospect in the imperfect way that NFL decision makers peg QB prospects where about 1 out of 2 taken high are often total failures.
Kizer has the size and the look, plus he’s smart, confident, I’m sure once he meets with NFL teams someone will fall in love and the NFL guys seem to think they can develop the right guy. I bet Kizer interviews very well and checks a lot of the boxes that NFL evaluators will have. I think we all know he needs more seasoning, but the money is there.
This came out today, with Kizer at #3 – http://www.sbnation.com/nfl-mock-draft/2016/11/28/13761366/2017-nfl-mock-draft-myles-garrett-jabrill-peppers-deshaun-watson-mitch-trubisky
If that’s remotely close to correct, there’s only one reasonable piece of advice for Kizer: get money.
He had a lot more than just the one dime throw against Texas, and it had nothing to do with Herbie. Lance Zierlein at NFL.com compared him to Steve McNair. Daniel Jeremiah, a former NFL scout who also works at NFL.com, said preseason that Kizer was his dark horse Heisman pick (oops) and has consistently rated him as one of the top QBs available. Bucky Brooks, another NFL.com guy and a former NFL player, had this to say about Kizer after the USC game:
Sports Illustrated just put up a mock draft that has Kizer going #2 overall. CBS mocked him at #1 overall earlier in the year. USA Today’s thebiglead.com just mocked him #1 overall a couple of weeks ago, calling him a bigger and more raw version of Russell Wilson. I can guarantee you that none of those guys give a rat’s patoot about what Herbstreit thinks.
I’m not saying the hype is 100% warranted, but I am suggesting that perhaps you should consider the possibility that there’s more than Herbstreit’s appreciation of one good throw behind it.
He has talent. He has lower-half mechanical issues that lead to inconsistency, but if he can clean those up he has everything he needs to be a monster. I’m sure the NFL thinks they can work that out of him. He and Mitch Trubisky also have easily the best QB ratings under pressure of any of the top prospects this season. Scouts love that.
Go rewatch the Stanford film last year. Kizer looked like a Heisman candidate when he had a much better OL and good receivers (Even without Will Fuller, Chris Brown was better than anyone he had this year, Amir Carlisle would still play as much as Hunter or EQ imo). He read the Stanford defense like a freaking book and made all the right decisions at all the right times. He clearly has the potential. Unfortunately, in both the Texas game and the Stanford game this year, he was screwed by Brian Kelly’s idiocy, and I’m not sure he mentally was all there. Frankly, he may have simply checked out. He was at his best when the team needed to be passing and Kelly wasn’t calling run plays on every 1st and 10 and the inevitable 2nd and 9, 10, or 11. After the way Kelly jerked him around all spring, summer, and fall, I’d go pro and hope that I end up somewhere with good pieces and/or a smart coach (Would the Texans trade up? Could he become Carson Palmer’s heir in Arizona? Cleveland is awful but I like Hue Jackson and think they are on the right, albeit long, path to building a team that is, well, not Cleveland).
I will say, he holds the ball too long and tries to do too much, and the accuracy can be very iffy sometimes. But he went from third string to starter without his top RB in about four months last year, and the team went 10-2 despite BVG’s defense.
Great article, Brendan. A few random thoughts: One thing that really hurts about this season is that it’s a wasted one where the injury Gods looked kindly upon Notre Dame. Shaun Crawford’s loss hurt in a very big way, but outside of that, most starters missed very few games, especially compared to 2014/15. Last offseason it was a hot-button topic if we were doing the wrong thing in S&C to have so many injuries, and now the questions like go back to conditioning/fatigue after some bad 4th quarter performances (worst quarter statistically forboth offense/defense). In hindsight, it also makes me feel like we blew an opportunity last season. If any of the following, changes it feels like we probably make the playoff – better injury luck, not-BVG as DC, Nyles Morgan starting instead of Joe Schmidt…. Like Brendan mentioned, I think there were a lot of assumptions made by BK/fans/pretty much everyone that we would be able to respond to the talent losses this year much better. The season reminds me of 2007 in that way, although this was a much better team. The offensive line was thought to be the strength of the team and was far worse than expected, pretty much to a man. C/RG struggled, McGlinchey didn’t transition to RT as easily, Bars wasn’t McGlinchey stepping in. Losing Fuller and Chris Brown had a gigantic impact, and that combined with a shakier O-Line created a much higher degree of difficulty for Kizer. Yet again there really wasn’t much of a receiving threat from slot WR / TE. Speaking of, Kizer had more sophomore slump than leap with much higher expectations, and really was forced to shoulder a huge load offensively. Defensively, the loss of Redfield obviously stung and Tranquill I think hasn’t recovered/played as hoped. A lot at safety was recruiting gaps coming fully into view, and then a full two classes basically after Luke’s class came up empty between injuries/suspension (Watkins/Butler, and Coleman/White not really being able to help much) and forcing three true freshman to play significant time. Add in bad scheme and poor development in terms of fundamentals and it’s actually really impressive our run defense was pretty solid. Culturally I think this was as tough a year for BK since he’s started. In 2015 it felt like a serious hurdle had been climbed – there were a rash of injuries, and the usual casualties from a academics perspective, but despite that the team went 10-3 and lost only to top 5ish teams. Then you have the Redfield et al and Butler incidents right before the season, it’s clear after one game the BVG decision was wrong, and same with the QB “rotation”. A lot of that was avoidable but is much clearer now in hindsight, and I think missing all those put Kelly in a bit of a tailspin – his in-game decisions this year were egregiously bad in a way I don’t think they’ve been in other years. I think he’s lost… Read more »
Yeah those in-game decisions. I think that’s one thing Brendan didn’t really talk about. What the hell was up with the in-game stubbornness. Did he just have no confidence that his really young team could execute in game adjustments? If so, would watching them fail at adjustments been worse than watching them fail at not even trying to adjust?
Excellent article, and I agree with CCFKAM. I always thought that Kelly was pretty good about making adjustments at half time. Even if we were down, it seemed like he knew how to get the team back in the second half. This year, though. We stunk. Here’s my thought: BVG, for all his faults in preparing schemes was supposedly a pretty sharp guy – a “genius” I think is what CBK called him when he was hired. So BVG could see what was not working and tweak things a bit to stem the bleeding. We came back against TX and MSU in the second half (I have blocked the Duke game from my memory.) Diaco was also pretty sharp and I think Kelly trusted him to make any defensive adjustments. That left Kelly to correct any problems on offense, knowing it better than anyone else.
This year, though, after BVG was canned, Hudson did not really know our defense and was likely of no help with anything related to schematic adjustments. Kelly was forced to split his time and take a much larger role in the defense. But, because he was not a full time defensive guy and they were changing defensive systems, he just wasn’t able to do it. That also affected the offense, since he was not able to spend as much time there as he had before.
I am sure that there were other issues as well, but I suspect that this had a lot to do with it. That makes it all the more important to hire a great COLLEGE defensive coordinator. I don’t think Hudson fits the bill, as much as it seems like he’s a great guy. With the talent that ND has coming back and the way it can recruit, I think it should be a plum job for an up and coming DC, or even an established one. For the same reasons, it should not be that difficult to hire a great ST coach. ND has a lot of good young talent who should be able to make special teams shine. If the NCAA approves adding a 10th assistant coach as they have indicated, that would allow ND to have a ST coach who does nothing else. (Heck, Booker could even stay on as tight ends coach as long as he stays away from special teams.)
A very balanced and fair analysis. I think the question for 2017 is whether or not Kelly can screen out all the various distractions you highlight and get his hands dirty again. The other question is whether he will truly want to. he may try, but he may also find his heart is not in it. THe offense worked fairly well this year until he began to focus on defense. Then, the offense went to hell. As someone who claims he coaches the coaches, he will have a lot to replace. I assume Elston will stay at LB. He may deserve a shot at DC, but I think this would be the wrong time politically, and it would create a hole at RC. He is probably helped that Aranda is staying at LSU because it takes one of the few ‘known’ names off the board. I assume Lyght will stay at DB, but you never know. The DBs did get a lot better when BVG left, and perhaps Lyght did not know how to coach to the BVG defense. I would probably replace Gilmore as well. The complete absence of a pass rush in inexcusable. He was brought in by BVG, and just not sure the DL was all that good this year or last. All of that said, a new DC may want to sweep clean. In which case, Elston is your new special teams coach. On the offensive side, there seems to be a disconnect between Hiestand’s reputation and the line’s performance. Mustipher was bad all year. Same for RG, no matter which of the three played there. Tristan Hoge must be awful if he could not get a chance at all. We do seem to follow the pro style substitution model on the OL, which basically means none. I don’t like that at the college level because there is always no experience among the back-ups. MSU, and others, substitute regularly and their line play is more consistent over time. I think Denbrock is adequate as a WR coach, at best. I don’t think all our young WRs were particularly good at getting separation, and certainly were not against USC. That has the effect of making Kizer (or any QB) look bad as well as causing more sacks. I think a lot of the hesitation we saw from Kizer this year would more properly be blamed on the WRs not getting open or him not trusting their routes. Also, none of the WRs were particularly sure handed. Fuller would occasionally have a lapse of concentration and drop a ball. I think Holmes had more hit him in the hands and drop against USC then he had catches all year. Sanford probably comes back. Same for Denson. If Booker comes back, I am not sure where you put him. It can’t be special teams. Too many mistakes. The bad bounce fumbles are one thing. Those things happen once. Oddly, the only one punished for it was CJ Sanders. We were lousy all… Read more »
Kelly has already stated that their will only be 1 OC in 2017. If it’s not Coach Sanford, Brian Kelly should be ran out of South Bend. Sanford won’t be afraid to lean on the running game. He did it at Boise.
Source?
Edit: closest I could find is this article: http://www.csnchicago.com/notre-dame/notre-dame-everythings-table-changes-brian-kellys-coaching-staff
I heard it on last weeks power hour podcast on irishsportsdaily.com. You dont have to be a member to listen.
http://irishsportsdaily.com/s/1121/post-va-tech-power-hour
BFUK’s early off-season to-do list:
(1) Hire a d-coordinator. Don’t listen to the calls asking for a big name (Tenuta, cough cough) – just focus on finding someone qualified, who recruits enthusiastically, and who will run a system that BK wants to run (and can help with, if needed).
(2) Throw money at someone who is innovative and highly competent with special teams.
(3) Develop a plan to recruit more 4-5 star defensive linemen (the loss of J Jones and Rochelle is a little scary if you look at the quality of who is left).
(4) Demand that the offensive game-planners (Denbrock & Sanford if they are still here) focus on developing more of a running game.
(5) Build on what was good this past season. Continue playing fresh bodies (especially on d), identify leaders at every position group, and make an annual offering to the injury gods.
(6) Find his confidence. Better to go out swinging, then to look defeated; as noted in this article, successful coaches typically have a bit of confidence / swagger. It’s better to use this to be a winner and have to deal with complaints about being too cocky, as opposed to having a defeatist mindset and having that rub off on the players.
A lot of folks, myself included, think Kelly is gone after 2017 regardless. Why then would he worry about bringing in a DC who is a good recruiter. Recruiting in 2016 is about saving his job for 2017. After that who cares. I get, though, that you were looking at it from the POV of what should be Kelly’s priorities for turning the program around versus what are his actual priorities for saving his own career path.
Super tres bon stuff, all of you. This will be a little free style, as I’m hitting on some very serious Bordeaux, and listening to Positively 4th Street on a continuous play loop. Such a nasty song, just makes the perfect moment to reflect on this horrible.year
…. I wish just for one time you could stand inside my shoes, you’d know what a drag it is to see you.
Be nice to sing this in any number of faces.
Anyway:
Lou Holtz used to talk much and with much sincerity about senior leadership. That was a terrific analysis of a critical issue, Brendan. Of note, BK told the ABC announcers last week that his biggest regret is that he did not spend more time in the off season trying to help his young leaders to be grow up to the level needed after the departure of all those guys.
I am probably the only guy on the board who was there for 1956, 1960, and 2007. Stats aside, there again Brendan you are right on target – this year didn’t feel anything like those years. Very different brands of horrible.
But that difference makes me agree with all of you above — there is a chance that BK can turn this around.
Question: can we as fans help him in some small marginal way regain some swagger? All the rampant speculation on who is the next coach I can understand, but at this stage I can’t see how it helps so much.
1) do we have answers for the O-Line? We recruit highly so is it can’t really be talent right? If it’s not talent is it coaching? Yet HH seems to have gotten a lot of his guys in the past? So what else could it be?
2) Losing Fuller turned out I think to be far greater impact on Kizer and the offense than we could have imagined. No one really turned into a go-to guy. Hunter was injured most of the year, and ESB is good but not yet a star. Next year this could be ameliorated by ESB getting better but also by the additions of the TE’s. Jones will be more than a TE more it seems in the Eifert mold (though I don’t know if quite as athletic as Eifert), and if one between Kmet and Wright can play then we could have a lot of 2 TE packages with 2 fantastic receiving TE’s and a lot of mismatches. Besides, Jones alone (let alone a 2nd TE receiving threat) could really open things up for ESB, Stepherson and perhaps a healthy Hunter if he comes back).
If Kizer improves at all and the OL goes back to average (for its own standards, which means very good), then it won’t take a whole lot for the offense to go from good to fantastic again (assuming Kizer returns of course).
3) Who are the coaches that are NOT leaving?
No way these guys leave
Denbrock (as ass. head coach)
Elston (as rec. coord)
and probably HH.
Sanford probably wouldn’t be fired too I suppose – it would look pretty bad to beat OSU for the services of a hot young coaching prospect to fire him soon after (like what did Kelly/ND do to him). Maybe he leaves for a promotion but not fired.
Does anything think any other coach is really untouchable?
So that leaves Booker (no way he comes back), Denson (probably returning), Lyght and Gilmore as up in the air depending on DC hire.
Did I read somewhere next year everyone can have one more assistant coach? Or is that not official yet?
In regards to #2, I still cannot comprehend how people didn’t think that losing the best deep threat (and perhaps best overall WR) in the country wasn’t going to make a huge impact on the offense. That seemed easily imaginable.
I have one theory on the OL, but I’m not sure how much of an impact it’s had. It’s just a lingering question in my head. I got really frustrated watching this offense this season because it seemed it regressed to read option or downfield vertical passing.
In the run game, this could mean many of the blocking calls were reduced to some sort of zone/stretch call with a designed release of a front line defender for the QB to make the read off of. This is often a lateral scheme that doesn’t require much push or aggression. I’ve always feared that over time too much reliance on that can soften the collective attitude of a unit and affect its aggressiveness. This could be more of a concern with groups that have experienced turnover and loss of leadership and are still working on their own identity. Likewise, it can also lead to confusion when it comes to releasing defenders and allow for the wrong guy to break free into the background.
There really didn’t seem to be much of a downhill element to the run game this year. Could be a chicken or the egg scenario, though, where it was by design because of the line concerns. I’ve just been around enough OL in my day to know they like getting into a downhill rhythm when they are blowing things up play after play after play. They feed off of that by nature. This toughens them up more than a passive scheme…which has its benefits but when used in conjunction to keep the defense guessing.
As for the passing game, it seemed like an all or nothing approach this year making use of mostly vertical downfield routes with little attention to the intermediate or quick passing game. This puts a lot of strain on an OL as they have to hold longer and the defense is able to simplify its pressure as they know they can pin their ears back and go on any passing down.
There was also a lot of play action, but play action is most effective when used with a punishing ground game that has gotten into a rhythm as mentioned above. If you don’t have a defense on its heals, play action isn’t going to freeze them like you want and could actually lead to break downs in pass protection if the D isn’t actually respecting the run.
Brendan, thanks so much for this. Almost identical to my observations/thoughts… right or wrong.
I seem to have lots of questions and few answers, but does anyone else see a certain parallel (albeit, one or two years behind) to Texas and the recently departed Strong? Maybe I’m reaching.
Very thorough and in-depth analysis Brendan, thanks.
It will be a very interesting off-season and hopefully not include any depressing surprises.
While I agree that the loss of Fuller hurt, I am a little higher on our receiving corps than most. I think the return of Alize will open things up. Everything I have heard out here (LV) indicates he is working hard and wants to come back with a vengeance next year. Our TE play this year, while serviceable, was certainly not much of a pass-catching threat. ESB has star potential and Stepherson was a pleasant surprise. CJ has a lot of upside in the slot, and we need to find ways to get the ball in his hands on a regular basis.
D remains a huge question mark for 2017, but surely it can’t get worse? Please tell me it can’t.
The defense is losing 4 of the 8 top tacklers and even worse, of the 61 tackles for loss; Onwualu,Jones and Rochell alone combined for almost half of (29/61).
I worry where the pass rush will come from, looks to be non-existent. And they don’t have many Day/Okwara penetrating types, let alone Tuitt/Shembo sack threats. Really need guys like Elijah Taylor and Daelin Hayes to make huge strides.
Other than that, the defense should be better. The secondary ought to be better off for the experience gained this season. LB’s with Morgan, Coney and Bilal should be the strength of the group.
If Cage doesn’t return (because of concussions) that could be a huge blow or if Tillery is suspended or misses any time. We are back to being really thin at DT.
Taylor is going to have to step up to play a huge role. Can we get anything from MDT or Tiassum? They are going to be juniors so its now or never.
Best case – Tillery and Cage are both healthy and available. That is a decent to potentially really good starting combo. Taylor will have to step up to be the third man in that rotation.
Worst case – Cage is done with concussions, Tillery misses time and Taylor and ?????? starts the season as the starters with _____ and ____ as backups. Don’t know who is genuinely filling in those slots but it’s not pretty.
MDT, Tiassum, Mokuah then the freshmen Ewell and Hinish would be vying for those spots.
I am a little bit frightened about how bad the 2017 defense is going to be when I look at the d-line for next year. Looking at recent depth charts, and assuming no freshmen are ready to make an instant impact, here is what it might look like:
DE – Trumbetti / D Hayes / Okwara
DT – Cage / Mokwah / Tiassum
DT – Tillery / Taylor / MDT
DE – Bonner / J Hayes / Kareem
This looks like the type of line we saw during the Weis years; decent starters, but no one who is talented enough to be drafted in the early rounds, along with some “potential” talent and depth chart filler at the backups.
Things are a little better if we consider a 3 man line (in this scenario, D Hayes would probably be an OLB / rush end):
DE – Tillery / Trumbetti / Okwara
NT – Cage / Mokwah / Taylor / MDT
DE – Bonner / J Hayes / Kareem
CJ Sanders has not shown anything at wideout; Finke will almost certainly play over him next year.
But likely Jones will play a hybrid wideout/TE with Smythe as the blocking TE, so both Finke and Sanders won’t be in the starting 11.
I’m also a card-carrying member of the fire BK (BFUK – thanks for telling me!) club. But man, those numbers on point differential were stark. This was a great article, and just those numbers alone gives me a little hope for next year. It also contributes to my grief for what could have been last year. To think of what that team did even with BVG…
I’m not sold on the offensive line doing a bad job. They weren’t great, but they looked solid to me. A lot of sacks showed bad awareness (holding too long + bad pocket movement) from Kizer. They looked what I’d expect from a line that lost three senior players (two to the NFL).
I’m actually pretty bullish about this defense. They looked so much better after BVG was fired. The losses on DL hurt, but there were some promising young recruits.
My main reasons for wanting to fire Kelly (aside from his terrible in-game decisions, like when he played Malik against Stanford or called infinite passes in a hurricane) are (in order):
1. He will be unable to undo the psychological damage of this season. Purely speculative, on my part, but seems grounded in history.
2. This team will continue to lack an offensive identity. I felt like we never had a bread and butter attack. I would love for us to run six plays well. One could be an inside zone, one could be zone read, and the rest could be pass plays. I’m not married to running the ball, but I want us to have a consistent plan for how we’re going to get yards that I feel like we’ve practiced.
3. Special teams will still suck. They have just never been good under Kelly, either at Notre Dame or Cincinatti
If he can fix 1, then he has also solved 2 to some extent and we can live with 3. But fixing 1 seems like such a daunting task – it seems easier to just wipe the slate clean. But that is not going to happen, so I’ll just hope for the best.
As a fan I have lost faith in Brian Kelly. I don’t believe in him anymore. In the past I have defended him from the wolves who have circled him screaming for his blood. I will no longer defend him. I just cant. He was looking for a quick exit after the USC game and part of me wished he would have found it. Another issue that bothers me is this. When it comes to his coaches he allows their personal relationship to come in between what’s best for the program. EVERYONE knows that we need a new strength and conditioning coach. EVERYONE knew that BVG had no business entering 2016 as DC. Because of Kelly’s close relationship with both no changes were made and it hurt the program. Because Kelly didn’t have the balls to fire his friends it cost us wins on the field.
Now we enter this off season looking for a DC. This coaching decision will be the most important hire Kelly has made since becoming HC. I would be willing to bet Kelly hires a coach he has history with instead of hiring the absolute best person for the job. I don’t know how I feel about Diaco if UConn fires him. We went 12-1 under him and he did win the award as best assistant coach in the country. He might be the best we can get but I hope I am wrong. This DC hire has to be a home run or Kelly’s time could be running out. We need a teacher and a HELL of a recruiter. Notre Dame fans on here continue to believe that all is well with recruiting. That’s the furthest thing from the truth.
Notre Dame right now is at a low point that I have not seen as a fan.
Some thoughts:
1, agree on the DC hire, and I hope Eric or one of the team will update the search parameters.
2, On the S&T coach – the board has talked that one over, and I was convinced by that discussion that we don’t have such a big issue. Injuries are down which was a huge objective, and they didn’t look physically whipped in the 4Qs, especially when BK moved over to the D and started playing more D-line; it was the same confidence etc mental issues as made our end of the 2Q equally bad.
I don’t think we have S&C issues.
It’s one of the easiest claims to make, without much evidence or debate, beyond a bunch of tired cliches. It’s something people cling to whenever there’s losing. Most of the time it’s nothing more than that.
I to use to be under the pretense that S and C was fine. Just because injuries are down doesn’t prove anything. Injuries are part of the game and I for one never pointed to S and C as the reason why injuries were up.
This Irish team plays very good football early only to fold late in games.This team wears down physically late in games. To say they don’t is just inaccurate in my opinion. You guys discussed it on the board and made your decisions and that’s great. I am certainly not trying to change your mind. The same people saying S and C is fine also say that recruiting is fine and thats clearly not the case. You don’t finish 4-8 by accident.
Are you concerned with S&C and recruiting not being “fine” or not being “exceptional”?
Or do you consider anything less than exceptional the same as “not fine”?
I watch a ton of football like a lot of college football fans. I am not a coach or anything but you see other teams get stronger as the game goes on. The opposite happens for this team. The Syracuse game, the Duke game among others. The team that we see in the first quarter is not the same team we see in the fourth. Is it coaching…….yes? Is it S and C……I once again say yes. To sit back Tyler and assume that strength and conditioning is ok while this continues is foolish if you ask me. Its not just a couple of games that this has happened. Before the USC game that happened in 6 out of 7 of our losses. S and C can be debated. The guys here think its fine. Other Irish sites think its a problem. I listen to them all and form my own opinion from what I see week end and out.
Recruiting is a completely different story. I think its just crazy for any Irish fan to say its ok. You cant have any recuit or any of their family members say there is a lack of communication beween the two and that has happened. Thats not even touching on the actual recruits being brought in. For this team to be forced into playing 4 or 5 true freshman in the secondary shouldnt happen at any program especially a blue blood program like Notre Dame. I will not go into the recruiting at DL. That itself is a flat joke. I just feel like more can be done. Once again if anyone thinks that everything is fine in those two areas thats fine. I just feel different.
Like Michigan last weekend? What does this even mean? All other teams except ND get stronger as the game goes on?
There are a dozen reasons why this could be the case. If this is your only criticism of the S&C program then it backs up what I’m saying.
And they thought the same thing for the last coach. And the coach before that. And the coach before that. It’s what the sites do in times like these–give people something to point their finger at when losses pile up. It’s easy, because criticism can be very shallow and yet people still lap it right up. It’s also an easy thing to do because it’s perceived as an easy fix. With a new S&C coach we can immediately get 25% better!
I wouldn’t term recruiting okay, depending on your perspective. We can always do better.
I agree, it wasn’t a S&C issue last year (or 2014) and it’s not a S&C issue today. So that’s done.
They are? I wasn’t aware of this huge overlap of people, but that’s fine.
I agree that we needed a new DC last off-season. However, I disagree with the thoughts about the S&C coach – I did not observe anything to suggest that a change is needed there.
I don’t follow recruiting much but I assume the Werner de-commit this morning isn’t a good thing.
Not awesome. He was thought to be one of the more solid recruits and is from Indianapolis. He is also teammates with Markese Stepp. Not sure if that will have any impact, but still. I think it has as big of an effect on the morale and momentum than the actual talent he’d bring.
BK and the staff have a huge task to hold this class together and add a couple more. They have to be balls to the wall from today until NSD.
I am afraid that Werner wont be the last recruit to leave. Hearing that Hicks is leaning towards flipping to Michigan. Hopefully Kelly and staff can keep him but losing two 4 star kids this late in the game is very troublesome.
Yeah, it’s hard to say. I think ND still certainly has a good chance with Hicks. I didn’t think Werner would leave, but who knows with 18 year olds and a 4-8 record.
Thomas Graham, Aaron Banks, Paulson Adebo, Elijah Hicks, Oliver Martin, and Joshua Paschal seem like players, whether committed right now or not, who are up for grabs. The staff needs to work their butt’s off to close on this group.
As Werner showed us, though, it is hard to tell who we are safe with.
To add to Jaden’s comment — here’s where it sounds like we stand for all those guys he mentioned.
Sounds like 50/50 that we get Graham now. We have his parents on our side but he may want to stay out West.
Nobody knows where Banks will end up and he’s committing in less than 2 weeks.
Adebo hasn’t really given us a reason to be concerned over his commitment, but there have been rumblings nonetheless.
Hicks, I don’t know. His coach says he’s solid to ND, but I’m not sure how much of that is Hicks’ opinion or his coach’s opinion. A lot of smoke here and it’s hard to see through it.
I think our best chance with Martin is if Michigan ends up not having room for him.
And Paschal I think will likely end up in this class, but it’s not a done deal.
We are also already a little tight on numbers. With 5 5th years we are at our max. That’s 5 of 6 Biven, Folston, McGlinchy, McGovern, Hunter, Smythe – all guys who have started. Maybe one leaves (McGlinchy has already said he’s coming I believe), and the rest aren’t good enough – maybe Folston as a RB wants to give the NFL a go a year early.
Brent might be an injury casuality. Maybe Kizer or Nelson leaves. Maybe Cage can’t come back with the concussions, and there’s usually one that you wouldn’t have guessed.
It seems our max will be around 20 with 17 already in the fold.
Hunter is not coming back.
Given our constant issues, we should always take 22 and, if necessary, engage in some aggressive roster management. It’s never necessary, though.
Did I miss that announcement or do you mean that in your judgment Hunter will decide to leave?
It’s not official but CJ Sanders tweeted:
“Gonna miss playin with my dawg
@THunterJr . Thank u for leading the way for me. Not only on the field but the way u carried yourself off it.”That’s surprising after the poor season he had this year – mostly due to injury.
On the other hand, the kid has been beset by injuries constantly since the all-star game before he even set foot on campus. His dad’s made tons of money playing baseball, he’s got his degree from ND, he’s married, and he’s probably smart enough to realize (and his dad might be honest enough to tell him) he doesn’t have a likely long-term NFL future. At a certain point, why continue to break body parts when you’ve got other things in life to enjoy?
True though those his injuries don’t seem to be the long-lasting effect kind (like say concussions). I certainly don’t begrudge him. I’m just a little surprised given if he came back he would have a chance again to be a starting WR at ND (which means more if you are not making in the NFL). But it doesn’t mean it is unreasonable to do what he’s doing.
Love this line. As much as people want to refute, Brian Kelly started from the bottom and made it to the peak. He didn’t show it this year, but for decades he has proven to be a very good coach.
I wish this article could get posted to all of the message boards. People are so sucked into hate right now it’s ridiculous. Notre Dame will field a talented football team next year.
When did Kelly make it to the peak? He has not won a title here. He hasn’t even won a NY6 bowl game here. He’s only been to two NY6 bowl games in 7 years. And that is the problem: only two 10+ win seasons in 7 years is unacceptable given the talent that we have.
We will have a talented team next year. The trouble is that we had a talented team this year! We’ve had top 10 talent each of the 7 years Kelly has been here, but we’ve only finished in the AP top 10 twice. Nor are the many bad losses under Kelly the result of a talent gap: Kelly has 31 losses here. How many of those involved a clearly more talented team? 5? The 2-5 record vs. Stanford, the multiple losses to Navy, the losses to Tulsa, Northwestern, Duke, etc., are the result of coaching incompetence, not inferior talent.
For elite coaches, 8-5 is the floor. For Kelly, 8-5 is the norm, and we’ve just hit the floor. Recruits have noticed that the program is being driven into the ground. Has Swarbrick?
The National Championship game is the peak of college football. Brian Kelly has been there. We all know he hasn’t won the national title. He still has been at the peak of the sport.
As it has been discussed relentlessly, Notre Dame presents giant challenges. We had six players get arrested this fall. And numerous players leave early for the draft. We have to turn away numerous recruits because they don’t qualify academically. Brian Kelly has seen his starting QB suspended for a full season, seen 5-star DT’s waste a spot and then leave right after NSD, had numerous players suspended for things that would’ve gotten swept under the rug at other institutions. The list goes on.
People are simply forgetting the masterful coaching job BK did one year ago. He took an injury riddled team to the cusp of the playoffs. We lost on the road on a last second field goal to the PAC 12 champs and lost on a 2 point conversion on the road in a monsoon with a brand new QB to the national runner-ups. What about that Brian Kelly?
The recruiting thing is especially frustrating. Players decommit. This is a thing that happens. Does our 7th ranked 2017 class or our 3rd ranked 2018 class represent our recruiting scene going to hell? No it doesn’t. That is the apocalyptic recruiting boards that are creating that feeling. I’m not saying ND hasn’t missed on positions or players in the past. Or that Werner decommiting is a good thing. But to act as if Swarbrick is some sort of a naive idiot is silly. I think JS has a better pulse on the program than us fans.
Again, there are simply not good options right now anyways to replace BK. There are only a handful of coaches that win 10 games consistently. No one is disputing BK being a bad coach this year. But he has had to deal with more BS in his time at ND than any coach in America during his time here.
Unless there is a sure thing coach out there, I think we are in the right to trust Swarbrick and see if the right changes can be made for next season.
I think Kelly was looking to leave. I think that played a huge part in Werner leaving. There were no whispers or anything about Werner being unhappy. Hopefully this staff can come together and close better than they did last year in recruiting.
So much depends on this DC hire. Hopefully BK can hire the right guy who can add a little positively to the program. My dream hire is Charlie Strong. You add him and you give play calling duties to Sanford and I feel that the program could gain a ton of momentum entering NSD and spring football.
I agree a lot is riding on the DC hire. I’m not sure Strong would go from being a head coach at two power 5 schools to then going back to being a DC, but who knows. I think he’d be a good DC too.
The DC hire is crucial. Think about how many more wins we would have had a competent DC the past three years. The DC hire will either put the nail in BK’s coffin or save his job.
Werner left because Ohio State turned up the heat on him and he saw them as a better place for his football future. He always liked them but they weren’t pursuing him heavily before. It has nothing to do with Kelly “looking to leave” – that’s speculative BS that’s fomented by sports media. I do think it’s odd that a guy who had Notre Dame, Stanford, and Northwestern high on his original list of interests is about to flip to Ohio State, but whatevs. Kids say all kinds of things that they don’t really mean.
Sure it’s speculation on my part. It’s also speculation on your part because neither one of us really know. I said it played a part because you know Ohio State used it. Whether they turned up the heat or not you know they used it. No matter how bad the product on the field got you never heard anything about this kid wavering on his commitment. Reports surface about Kelly wanting to leave and the kid out the blue decommits. Sure 17-18 year olds change their minds all the time. Maybe you are right and it didn’t play a part. Kelly sure seemed to think it played some kind of part with him sending out a tweet at 3:30 in the morning saying he was committed to ND. I don’t think he has ever sent out a tweet that late at night before. That tweet was sent out strictly for recruiting. It served no other purpose.
When these recruits hear things like your future HC is looking to leave. Or worse they hear that Notre Dame is willing to negotiate his exit despite just giving him a 6 year extension. I could be wrong but Ithink it plays a part in recruiting Brendan.
At the same time, this kid had scheduled an official visit to tOSU prior to any real rumors/disputed reports about Kelly came out. Personally, I’d bet his apparent flirtation with tOSU was more of a driving factor in his decommitment to ND rather than any consternation about Kelly. Then again, it could be all of that plus more factors, who knows.
And a Ohio St. LB prospect decommitted today and has an official visit scheduled with ND, and Arizona I believe I read, weirdly enough. Kids are still flat allowed to change their minds, it happens.
Yeah, the Simmons kid. I saw that on twitter. I didn’t know he scheduled a official with ND though.
Clarifying one point – Kelly’s tweet was at 3:00 AM ET, but he was in California recruiting at the time, so for him it was actually midnight. Late, but not “oh crap what did I do last night” late, especially considering he was probably burning the midnight oil all week.
Nothing anybody said or did within the program would stop other coaches from telling recruits that Kelly won’t be here. Coaches were telling Jurkovec a year ago that Sanford wouldn’t be here by the time he enrolls because he’ll take a HC job somewhere. Coaches probably told recruits last year that Kelly would head to the NFL if he had another big year.
That stuff works on some of them, sure. There’s nothing you can do about that. Nothing Kelly or Swarbrick say or do will stop it from working on the ones who are inclined to listen to it.
In Werner’s case, piecing things together, Ohio State leaned on him hard saying that Kelly was looking to leave and he bought it. The staff swore up and down to him that it wasn’t true, and I don’t think it’s true, but it didn’t matter – Urbie did his thing. The rumors about nobody contacting him for months are BS; I won’t get into why I’m so confident here, but I heard that from someone who is outside the program but in a very good position to know.
Fair enough.
You mention the challenges that ND faces compared to other schools, and that is all true. But ND also has advantages compared to Duke, Northwestern, Tulsa, Stanford, Navy, etc. And yet we’ve lost to all of them, in some cases multiple times, under Kelly. Again, the talent gap can only even be invoked to defend maybe 5 or 6 of Kelly’s 31 losses. (And again, I would expect a top coach to be able to beat teams with better talent too.)
You talk about last year’s team. Why should we be so excited about 10-3? There was a time when 10-3 was considered a bad season at ND. Now it is considered “masterful.” Furthermore, talking about the being “on the cusp” of the playoffs is misleading. We were a couple plays away from 12-0, it is true. We were also a couple plays away from being 8-5 (see the UVA, Temple, and BC games). Oh yeah, and we were 0-3 against the good teams that we played. Kelly doesn’t beat good teams. He doesn’t even beat all of the bad teams. He beats some bad teams, and that’s about it.
As for recruiting classes, we’ll have to see where they end up when everything finishes. As we all know, the top guys sign last and usually don’t sign with us. Expect those classes to end up in the 10-15 range, which is the usual Kelly class. And don’t tell me that Kelly is a “good recruiter.” The point of good recruiting is to win games. We’ve had a 10-15 class (or better) each year under Kelly, but we’ve only finished 10-15 or better twice. That is unacceptable.
As for good coaches that are available, we don’t need to look too far. Les Miles is available. Consider:
Kelly: 65% win%, 10 win seasons in 2/7 years (29%); 8-5 or worse 4/7 years; 4-8 worst record
Miles: 77% win%; 10 win seasons in 7/11 years (64%); 8-5 or worse 1/11 years; 8-5 worst record
Miles would be a clear upgrade.
Les Miles was at maybe the most winnable destination out there. He could recruit everyone he needed out of his backyard. And had a pretty nice setup when he arrived.
Ending in the 10-15 range each year I think would qualify you as a good recruiter, not great. Especially considering that probably 10 of the 25ish 5-stars are not options at all for Notre Dame from the get-go because of academics and whatnot. And the majority of the remaining ones live on the coasts.
The hiring of BVG can be almost fully to blame for the loss to Northwestern in ’14, Stanford last year, Duke this year, along with numerous others. But Cam McDaniel also fumbled for like the first time ever against NW as we were killing the clock to end the game. Tulsa finished the year ranked the year we lost to them. Navy has been good the past few years.
At the end of the day, I guess I blame BVG for everything lol. I just think its fair to give BK (on a very short leash) a year with a new DC, especially considering the current coaching market.
Notre Dame’s issues are rooted a lot deeper than BK or any head coach that we would bring in.
Our record with BVG as DC: 1-3.
Our record after BVG was fired: 3-5.
The problems go well beyond BVG.
Miles would be an absolute train wreck at ND. He was 28-21 at Oklahoma State before he was gifted post-Saban LSU. He won his national title in one of the weirdest years ever, getting into the BCS championship game even though he lost not once, but twice as the #1 team. One of those losses was to Kentucky. KENTUCKY. He never fielded a competent offense at LSU, even though his background is on offense, and he cycled through terrible OC hires trying to fix it. He could sign a top-ten class there every year without ever leaving his office. He had no concerns about academic progress or fit. All of that is a big red flag, because he wouldn’t get any of those advantages at ND. If he had done better at Okie Light I might be more interested. And on top of all that, he’s a Michigan man, and not even the best representative of a Michigan man at that.
The problems definitely go beyond BVG, but the pre-/post-termination record isn’t the best indicator of how he hurt the team this year. The negative effect of BVG’s regime didn’t end immediately with his termination; the remaining staff was fighting uphill all season. The fact that he was retained of course rests on Kelly, and the team had other issues as well. But BVG in and of himself was a major, major contributor to how bad this season was.
Convincing take on Miles, let’s sign him!
Not much has been said about Sanford. I don’t know exactly what he does but I do know that he is the QB coach and that the 2 QBs he played this year have regressed and Zaire has regressed quite a bit. Do people still think he is the best thing since the spread offense?
He’s a people person. He talks to the Quarterbacks so that Brian Kelly doesn’t have to! He’s got people skills! What the hell is wrong with you people?!
Fitting considering many in the ND fanbase have purchased his Jump To Conclusions mat.
The mat would have been an effective red zone play caller this season.
I don’t think Kizer just flat regressed. I think as the year went on his mechanics slipped because he dealt with increasing mental pressure, poor offensive line play, and poor execution by receivers. How many times did we have receivers run nothing patterns, or just stop dead? How many passes against USC were on the money and dropped? And doesn’t Sanford get credit for getting Kizer to step in last year the way he did, after getting essentially zero work in the spring when he was QB3?
I don’t know about pinning Zaire on Sanford either. I think Zaire was (a) extremely rusty, and (b) trying to hit a five-run homer every time he got in. People keep forgetting that coming into the season, Zaire had about a quarter of the live game experience that Kizer had. He looked far more competent as a passer last year against Texas and even Virginia, which wasn’t a good performance, than he did against anyone this year. Is that because 2015 Mike Sanford was a great QB coach and 2016 Sanford is a terrible QB coach?