Playoffs? PLAYOFFS? Play… PLAYOFFS?!? Is it really time for us to post a 2017 CFP rankings preview article? Playoffs??
Yes folks, get your Jim Mora Sr. voices ready. With the first round of CFB committee rankings set to be released tonight, it’s time to talk openly about playoff scenarios. We’ll take a look at the remaining contenders and offer some thoughts on how things might fall out based on committee logic. Unlike many, and by “many” I mean college football fans of every team, I’m actually on board with most of the committee’s work. I think the fact that fans of every team think the committee is out to get them and/or their conference is probably a decent sign that they’re doing something right. Seriously, Big Ten fans believe there’s a conspiracy against them, SEC fans believe there’s a conspiracy against them, Big 12 fans believe there’s a conspiracy against them, and so on.
So no, I don’t think the committee is out to screw Notre Dame, or that it’s determined to use whatever shifting, tortured logic is necessary to justify leaving the Irish out of the playoff. I think if our resume is good enough we’ll get in, and if it isn’t, we won’t. Simple as that. I also don’t think they’re intent on protecting anyone else
I’ve used AP rankings for this discussion, as I’m not clairvoyant enough to know the committee rankings ahead of time and the Coaches Poll is made by smelly stupid poopy-heads. Strength of schedule includes games played to date, not future games. The committee doesn’t use S&P+ or FEI – they should, which is another story – but they do use a pile of statistics and evaluate them critically. I’d prefer they use the advanced stats, but the end result for that variable is probably fairly similar. The S&P+ and Sagarin numbers are through 10/28 games, and the FEI numbers are through 10/21 games – I’ll update the FEI stuff when the new set is published. [Note: The new numbers are out now and I’ve edited below to reflect them.] Finally, with all apologies to Scott Frost and Central Florida, I’m only including teams that have a realistic shot at the playoffs. That means no fringe undefeated/one-loss teams and absolutely no two-loss teams.
Oh, and one other note – anytime you read a definitive statement on future events, please mentally append “barring chaos” to the end of it. I know there are ways that some of my definitive statements can come to be false, but if it requires more than three or four teams to lose half their remaining games this whole preview becomes a pile of toilet paper anyway. So don’t worry about Armageddon until it happens, basically.
The Undefeateds
#1 Alabama
Record: 8-0
Quality wins: None
Strength of schedule: 66th FEI, 55th Sagarin
Advanced stats: #2 S&P+, #13 FEI
Quality win opportunities: #16 Auburn, #19 LSU, #21 Mississippi State, SEC title game
Their remaining opportunities come with a pretty big asterisk, as it wouldn’t surprise me at all if Auburn, LSU, and MSU-South were all unranked by the end of the year. Maybe Auburn can hang around on the back end of the top 25, but that’s not really going to move the needle for anyone. I understand many of you might not believe me, but a conference runner-up Alabama is NOT going to get into the playoffs. They need to win the SEC or they’re out.
#2 Georgia
Record: 8-0
Quality wins: #5 Notre Dame
Strength of schedule: 27th FEI, 51st Sagarin
Advanced Stats: #3 S&P+, #1 FEI
Quality win opportunities: #16 Auburn, SEC title game
Why again is Alabama ranked #1? Georgia has done more against a tougher schedule. I’m pretty confident that Georgia will be #1 in the first committee rankings, because they’re not as beholden to preseason perceptions as the writers are. Georgia has a bit more leeway than Alabama because of that very high-quality win against Notre Dame in week 2, but even so, it’s hard to see a path to the playoff for them that doesn’t include the SEC title.
#4 Wisconsin
Record: 8-0
Quality wins: None
Strength of schedule: 96th FEI, 69th Sagarin
Advanced Stats: #6 S&P+, #14 FEI
Quality win opportunities: Big Ten title game
The fact that Sagarin has the Badgers’ SOS ranked 69th makes me wonder about his methodology. Their slate is B-A-D. Not only do they not have a quality win, they’ve only played two teams in the top half of the S&P+ rankings. And one of those, #28 Florida Atlantic, was almost assuredly an accident (the other is #49 Purdue, if you’re wondering). I highly doubt a one-loss Wisconsin team would have any shot at the playoff, and in fact even if they’re undefeated it’s no sure thing. They’ll definitely be lower, probably on the back end of the top ten, in the committee rankings.
#9 Miami
Record: 7-0
Quality wins: None
Strength of schedule: 68th FEI, 44th Sagarin
Advanced Stats: #14 S&P+, #15 FEI
Quality win opportunities: #13 Virginia Tech, #5 Notre Dame, ACC title game
Miami controls its destiny for the playoffs, with Virginia Tech, Notre Dame, and probably a top ten Clemson in the conference title game ahead of them. However… They’ve played four consecutive one-score games against unranked teams, and it really feels like they’re living on borrowed time. They’re playing Virginia Tech for the de facto division title this week; a win would clear their path to the conference title game, as they could split with Virginia and Pitt and still take the division. For the first time in my life I’ll be pulling for Miami, as they’re a big component of Notre Dame’s end of season resume.
The One-Loss Crowd
#3 Ohio State
Record: 7-1
Quality wins: #7 Penn State
Strength of schedule: 42nd FEI, 37th Sagarin
Advanced Stats: #1 S&P+, #4 FEI
Quality win opportunities: #24 Michigan State, Big Ten title game
Why does Sagarin like Big Ten schedules so much? Weird… Anyway, Ohio State, Notre Dame, and Clemson are clearly 1A, 1B, and 1C in the discussion of best one-loss teams. Ohio State’s comeback win over Penn State was absolutely huge, as it kept them alive for the playoffs and probably eliminated Penn State. It also counters their bad early-season loss to #8 Oklahoma. This is a very interesting case for the committee; they certainly seem to have been angered considerably by the Oklahoma loss, but they still hadn’t played anyone until this weekend. My guess is that the Penn State win will be enough to push them into the first top four, and that they now control their destiny. They face a not-insubstantial stretch run of at Iowa, vs Michigan State, vs Illinois, and at Michigan. If they lose to Iowa, the Big Ten will be blown wide open, so there’s your key non-Irish rooting interest for this week.
#5 Notre Dame
Record: 7-1
Quality wins: #17 USC, #20 NC State, #24 Michigan State
Strength of schedule: 16th FEI, 12th Sagarin
Advanced Stats: #9 S&P+, #3 FEI
Quality win opportunities: #9 Miami, #18 Stanford
Ohio State’s loss was worse and to a lower-ranked team, but Notre Dame’s best win isn’t as good (at this point). USC helped substantially by absolutely clobbering Arizona State this weekend. I wasn’t penciling that in as a win for them since I feared a letdown. If they can get past Arizona and Mike Vick Jr. Khalil Tate this weekend, it should be smooth sailing to the Pac 12 title game. The Irish need NC State to turn in a similar post-smackdown performance against Boston College Clemson this week, which would keep them alive for the ACC title game.
The best case for Notre Dame’s resume is that USC and Stanford meet in the Pac 12 title game, Miami and NC State meet in the ACC title game, and Michigan State upsets Ohio State, Penn State, and Wisconsin. MSU-North is almost certainly not going to make good on their part, so ditch that. I’m not sure USC can get past Arizona, Miami can get past Virginia Tech, NC State can get past Clemson, or Stanford can get past both Washington schools, but it’s not outlandish at least. If the Pac 12 and ACC fall out that way, I guarantee an 11-1 Notre Dame will make the playoffs – beyond just the quality win aspect, we’ll have eliminated the requisite two Power 5 conferences from playoff contention to open up our spot.
#6 Clemson
Record: 7-1
Quality wins: #13 Virginia Tech, #16 Auburn
Strength of schedule: 41st FEI, 4th Sagarin
Advanced Stats: #11 S&P+, #2 FEI
Quality win opportunities: #20 NC State, ACC title game
Yeah, I don’t know how Sagarin’s SOS works. Clemson has played a respectable schedule but 4th seems a little ridiculous. Be that as it may… Clemson should be clearly behind Notre Dame in the committee rankings; they have two quality wins to Notre Dame’s three and have not played quite as good a schedule. On top of that, each team’s single loss is very different – Notre Dame’s to presumptive #1 Georgia by a point, Clemson’s to unranked Syracuse. Clemson lost QB Kelly Bryant during that game, which might help lessen the impact of it, but even so they’ve been nowhere near as dominant as the Irish this season. They’ll have a shot at a common opponent in NC State and possibly another if they and Miami make the title game. That NC State game looms large for the Tigers and the Irish.
#7 Penn State
Record: 7-1
Quality wins: None
Strength of schedule: 47th FEI, 24th Sagarin
Advanced Stats: #7 S&P+, #7 FEI
Quality win opportunities: #24 Michigan State, Big Ten title game
You could make a case that Penn State has the softest resume of any top ten team, and certainly of any one-loss team. Wisconsin’s resume is Charmin soft too, but they at least haven’t lost. The Lions haven’t beaten anybody of note (stuff it, Michigan!), and in their opportunity to make a statement against #3 Ohio State this weekend they wilted. They need Michigan State to beat Ohio State this weekend or they’ll be guaranteed to finish the regular season with no quality wins. And unless Ohio State drops two down the stretch, which seems exceedingly unlikely, they won’t get a shot in the Big Ten title game either. I predict that Penn State fans will be angered by the committee’s first rankings; they seem like a lock to be lower than they are in the polls.
#8 Oklahoma
Record: 7-1
Quality wins: #3 Ohio State
Strength of schedule: 5th FEI, 28th Sagarin
Advanced Stats: #13 S&P+, #6 FEI
Quality win opportunities: #10 TCU, #11 Oklahoma State, Big 12 title game
This is another tricky one. Oklahoma has arguably the most impressive win of anyone this year, a 31-16 thrashing of #3 Ohio State in Columbus. However, they also lost to #14 Iowa State and have had close calls against 0-8 Baylor, 4-4 Kansas State, and 4-4 Texas. As of today, their resume is good but it has some holes. Due to the contrived nature of the Big 12 title game, they’ll have to beat TCU and Oklahoma State and turn around immediately for a rematch with one of them – or the Cyclones – to win the conference. If they can run that gauntlet it would be extremely difficult to leave them out of the playoff. In fact, I think any one-loss Big 12 champ is probably in, and any two-loss team is definitely out.
#10 TCU
Record: 7-1
Quality wins: #11 Oklahoma State
Strength of schedule: 14th FEI, 46th Sagarin
Advanced Stats: #8 S&P+, #5 FEI
Quality win opportunities: #8 Oklahoma, Big 12 title game
TCU was sitting pretty after knocking off Oklahoma State and rolling through their next three games to get to 7-0. Enter those pesky Iowa State kids… Iowa State scored the upset of the weekend as they held the Frogs 34 points below their season average and sowed a lot of doubt about TCU. TCU has one real test left, a game at Oklahoma; since they beat Okie State already they’re in the driver’s seat for the title game. Just like for Oklahoma, it’s conference title or bust for Gary Patterson’s troops.
#11 Oklahoma State
Record: 7-1
Quality wins: None
Strength of schedule: 23rd FEI, 31st Sagarin
Advanced Stats: #8 S&P+, #11 FEI
Quality win opportunities: #8 Oklahoma, #14 Iowa State, Big 12 title game
OKIE LIGHT AIN’T PLAYED NOBODY, PAWWWWL… The Cowboys opened with Tulsa, South Alabama, and Pitt. Then they logged the aforementioned loss to TCU and followed it with narrow wins against unranked Texas and Texas Tech. And the outcome was still in doubt in the fourth quarter this weekend against West Virginia. In fact I’m really not sure how their strength of schedule ranking is so high, unless it’s just the Big 12 all feeding on each other. You get the sense that the other shoe is about to drop with Oklahoma State, possibly this weekend in Bedlam. Still, if they run the table, which would require three quality wins, they’re likely in.
#12 Washington
Record: 7-1
Quality wins: None
Strength of schedule: 95th FEI, 64th Sagarin
Advanced Stats: #4 S&P+, #10 FEI
Quality win opportunities: #18 Stanford, #25 Washington State, Pac 12 title game
Kudos to Washington for making a serious run at Wisconsin for the weakest schedule in the top 15. The Pac 12 is down a bit over recent years, which they couldn’t have predicted, which is why they should’ve scheduled even a little bit more aggressively out of conference; they opened with Rutgers, FCS Montana, and Fresno State. Blech. Believe it or not, UCLA is their highest-ranked opponent so far by S&P+ – at #64! With their top four S&P+ opponents of the season coming up now – Oregon (#45), Stanford (#19), Utah (#51), and Washington State (#23) – it seems pretty likely they’ll drop at least one more game.
Chris Petersen, who I respect greatly as a coach, should go complain to his AD about their schedule instead of to the media about their “East Coast bias.” The Huskies are the only Pac 12 team left that has any real shot at the playoffs, but even if they win the conference I think they’ll be very easy for the committee to pass over. They’ve used the rankings in the past to make a point about scheduling, and I expect them to do it again with Washington.
#13 Virginia Tech
Record: 7-1
Quality wins: None
Strength of schedule: 43rd FEI, 76th Sagarin
Advanced Stats: #15 S&P+, #17 FEI
Quality win opportunities: #9 Miami, ACC title game
Virginia Tech will probably need help, but they do have a shot. They could have a chance at a top ten win in the ACC championship, and Miami probably won’t fall out of the top 25 even if they lose to the Hokies and the Irish. I still don’t think their record would stack up well to an 11-1 Notre Dame, and the SEC, Big Ten, and Big 12 champs would probably all have clearly superior resumes. They might not even compare well to the SEC runner-up, depending on how all that plays out. Stranger things have happened, though, so Virginia Tech is here and they’re alive for the time being.
The Top Four (Maybe)
I won’t be so foolish as to take a run at predicting the full committee rankings – way too many variables and too many teams are too interchangeable at this point. I will take a shot, though, at who I think would be in the playoff if it started next weekend. Remember that this is based only on the resume to date, not what might lie ahead for these teams.
- Georgia
- Alabama
- Ohio State
- Notre Dame
Georgia at #1 is an easy one – by far the best resume of anyone right now. Alabama, even without a quality win yet, and their dominant undefeated record get the second spot. Notre Dame has more quality wins than anyone right now and by far the toughest schedule to date of any of the contenders. The Buckeyes get the nod over the Irish for the #3 spot due to the non-linear increase in importance of quality wins – I think one top ten win will probably be worth more than two top twenty wins and a fringe quality win. Especially since, even though we’re not looking ahead, that fringe quality win will probably be off the board after this weekend.
I actually wouldn’t be all that surprised to see any order of Ohio State, Clemson and Notre Dame, but I do feel relatively confident that these four will top the first rankings. You could make a case for Clemson to be here too, with two quality wins and a solid strength of schedule, and I wouldn’t argue with that. Well, too much, anyway – I reserve the right to be righteously indignant if they’re included at Notre Dame’s expense.
Exciting times, my friends.
So odd that Sagarin pegs Wisconsin as having such a nice schedule.
Unfortunately for Wisconsin, Alabama has already claimed the 69th-ranked-FEI-Strength-of-Schedule-National-Championship (giving them an updated total of ∞ national championships) for 2017, but better luck next year Badgers.
Quick, someone get the committee’s email address!
I believe it’s either you.can.try@butwedontcare.com or lalalalalala@icanthearyou.com. Pretty sure I’ve seen those mentioned in the past.
Wise guy…great writeup was what I was trying to say
Ha, misunderstood, thanks… And yes, my wisecracks have been getting me in trouble for, sadly, decades.
You too, Brendan?
“Clemson is two measly points behind Notre Dame in the AP poll” – Umm, that would be ND behind Wisc, Clemson is another 58 points back.
So um, NC State plays Clemson this week, then BC.
Given that you and Scarponi each pointed out missteps with Clemson, I’m disappointed nobody said @everybody has their blind spots, Brendan.@ Big miss.
Anyway, thanks for the editorial contributions guys – fixed on both counts.
Are you sure it’s fixed on both counts?
This still doesn’t sound right.
Hey, like CW likes to remind us all the time… Writing is hard.
You’ve Clemsoned your discussion of Clemson.
Great stuff Brendan!
Great stuff. I won’t argue that Georgia hasn’t had a tougher schedule, so by virtue of winning that’s more impressive, but I think it’s still OK to think Alabama is the best team in the country so far this season with their performances.
I hope the committee sees if your way with ND over Clemson, the case made above makes valid sense, but I get the hunch that as defending champs they’ll get a perception bump plus maybe the excuse that their loss was enhanced by the QB injury and that Clemson belongs in the the top-4.
We shall see and either way it will be exciting. I’m of the mindset that with ND’s schedule, 11-1 with the one loss being a one point game to a strong UGA team is enough to get them into the playoff. I know some chaos will have to play out to make it happen, but it always does in CFB, so the bigger issue to me is just watching and enjoying a great ND season and I’m confident the rest will take care of itself.
I gotta say, now that the committee rankings are out, I really dig the way they don’t marry them selves to stupid prior ranking poller inertia. Like the stupid ap keeping Wisconsin high just because they’ve been high and haven’t lost against awful competition.
“With all apologies to Scott Frost and Central Florida, I’m only including teams that have a realistic shot at the playoffs.”
In the event of a season with only three undefeated or one loss P5 teams do you think an undefeated G5 team can make it over a two loss P5 team? I suspect that it is possible in theory, but not for UCF this year since their only P5 win will be over Maryland.
Yeah, UCF’s strength of schedule is terrible, which is going to be a problem for any G5 team. Houston was so close last year with the Oklahoma and Louisville upsets, but either of the Navy or SMU losses would’ve been enough to knock them out. A G5 team would need to go undefeated and log at least one, probably two quality wins to get in. This year, even though UCF has looked really good, would you put them in over a two-loss Alabama? Clemson? Oklahoma? Ohio State? There’s no way.
I think you’d need 2007-level weirdness coupled with an accidental nationally-comparable season from a G5 team, like Houston almost had last year – I’m sure they thought Louisville would be decent, I doubt they thought they’d be #3 at the time of the game.
If South Florida had been undefeated heading into their final game matchup, I think you could see the committee at least giving UCF consideration over those 2-loss teams, especially if they beat down USF. But that possibility is gone now, so I agree, I can’t see a scenario where they have a chance.
I think it’ll be more interesting to see how the rankings fluctuate from week to week based on how teams already beaten perform down the stretch. The beauty of the committee is that even if you are IN the first poll, that doesnt mean you will be IN next week or even at the end. Take Iowa State as an opponent for so many of the BXII teams. Say they lose to WVU this week(possible), Okie Light next week(probable), and even Bill Snyder at the end of the year. What does that do to OU and Okie Light? Even if you have OU IN after beating Okie Light in Bedlam or vice versa, if ISU drops to #26 or 27 after those three losses, the XII looks not so hot anymore. Then, imagine TCU goes off and wins the XII. I think their historical perspective hurts them. Much like how every year you HAVE to have Bama IN or even at #1 in every poll, you almost have to go undefeated even though you win the XII if you’re TCU. OU or TX could get in as a 1-loss champ, but I dont think TCU could.
While I agree with the general thrust of your argument, I wouldn’t get too excited about Iowa State falling to 8-4 or 7-5 and what it means for the committee. They didn’t seem to care too much last year when Clemson lost to 8-4 Pitt. And they weren’t going to care that 11-1 Oklahoma lost to 5-7 Texas; they would have put Oklahoma in over us had we beaten Stanford.
That’s a longwinded way of saying I anticipate that a hypothetical 12-1 Oklahoma will ultimately be ranked ahead of us, especially given their Ohio State win. Since TCU doesn’t have that Ohio State natch in their belt, it’s more questionable, and, as you get at, a 7-5/8-4 Iowa State hurts them not because they lost to a 7-5/8-4 team but because that’s one fewer top-25 team they played.
Except… and I love that I’m actually saying this about ND for maybe the first time ever… ND wins the eye test over Oklahoma, and I think that matters (think tOSU over Penn St. last year).
tOSU had one fewer loss than Penn State, though, and Penn State done got blow’d out by Michigan earlier in the year (I suppose the latter is part of eye test). Oklahoma didn’t get super-killed by Iowa State like Michigan super-killed Penn State. I think the Big 12 would have to have some super cannibalization (like K State beating Oklahoma State AND Texas Tech beating TCU) for hypothetical 12-1 Oklahoma not to be ranked ahead of hypothetical 11-1 ND.
But, ultimately, yes, if Oklahoma keeps winning close and ND keeps blowing out ranked teams we’ll get a sense of how the Committee values the eye test.
I think you can stop at “tOSU had one fewer loss than Penn State,” honestly. Losses seem to be anathema to the committee, and I’m fine with that. A one-loss team would need a very compelling case to jump an undefeated team, and a two-loss team would need an unbelievably compelling case to jump a one-loss team. I’m fine with that – I don’t think a loss should kill you, necessarily, but it has to weigh heavily. And Penn State fans need to STFU about last year already, because if you lose two games you have no right to complain about being left out of anything.
As far as how the “eye test” comes into play for us, I’m not sure how it’ll all work out vis-a-vis Oklahoma, but I’m not sold on their chances of winning out either. In fact I’m pretty sure they’ll drop one somewhere. So many dominoes yet to fall – it’s great to be able to care about them.
The most 0- or 1-loss teams there have been at the end of the season in the past 10 years is 6.
2016: 4 teams 0 or 1 loss, all in playoff
2015: 6 teams 0 or 1 loss.
left out:
Iowa (12-1) lost B#G championship to MSU
OSU (11-1) lost game 11 to MSU
2014: 6 teams 0 or 1 loss.
left out:
Baylor (11-1) lost game 7 to WVU
TCU (11-1) lost game 5 to Baylor 61-58
2013: 6
2012: 5
2011: 4
2010: 6
2009: 4
2008: 6
2007: 2
IF, we are left with 1-loss champions of the XII, B1G, ACC, and Pac12, along with ND, that would leave 7 such teams (Assuming one of Bama or UGA is undefeated and the other only has one loss) In that extremely unlikely scenario, we would definitely be out. Even if there are only 6 such teams, I think we could be left out. I really think we need to be rooting for multiple conferences to cannibalize themselves (Pac12, XII, and B1G seem most likely candidates to do this), and I’m not sure where people are getting their confidence that “if we win out, we’re in”.
I completely agree with you. It is quite possible/likely (unless Miami goes 12-1 and USC runs the table) that at 11-1 we end up pretty clearly behind:
– 13-0 Bama/UGA
– 13-0 Wiscy/12-1 Ohio State that beats 12-1 Wiscy
– 12-1 Oklahoma that beats a bunch of 2-loss teams and Ohio State (1- or 2-loss OOC opponent)
Our competition at the margins would be: 12-1 ACC champ Clemson, 12-1 non-conf champ Georgia, 12-1 non-champ Alabama, 12-1 champ Oklahoma State, 12-1 champ TCU, 12-1 champ VaTech, 11-1 Penn State.
We’d clearly get in over 12-1 ACC champ Miami (but that isn’t happening).
IMO, I think the split in the middle category would happen at 12-1 Georgia – i.e., I don’t know who would be ranked higher between us and Georgia, but I’m pretty sure we end up behind 12-1 Clemson unless they win through some funny business. Meaning I think that if the favorite wins out in the SEC, Big 10, Big 12, and ACC, we are probably SOL and can’t do anything about it.
So go NC State!
Edited to note that I don’t think that is *likely* the way it’s going to play out, but I also don’t think it’s likely that we win out, so we’re already in hypothetical land here.
Why in the world would we be behind Clemson? We’re ahead of them now and our schedule is better than Clemson’s the rest of the way (unless you consider the Citadel to be a scary matchup).
They could possibly jump us by adding another quality win in the ACC title game – either a likely top 15 Miami or top 10 Virginia Tech. Remember that this assumes, as always, that we win out, which is why I’m projecting Miami a bit lower. Coupled with earlier quality wins against Tech and Auburn, that would give them three overall and a conference title.
Now, it’s possible that Auburn could drop out before the end of the year. And I’d like to think that our quality wins over USC, NC State, Miami, Stanford (maybe) and MSU (maybe), our better performance overall, and our better SOS overall would do it for us. But 12-1 ACC champ Clemson does pose a real risk.
Not to mention, “defending champion” Clemson. I assume that will factor in, if all things are considered. And, their loss was w/o their starting QB.
Also, to ndxxxxxx, how do you figure that ND is “clearly” behind a 13-0 Wisconsin? They’ve got nearly as tough a schedule as Memphis – only difference would be 1 win over their only ranked opponent of the season.
IMO, as a practical matter, an undefeated power 5 conference champ is always going to make it in one way or another. They might be behind a one-loss team or two (happened in 2014 to FSU), but I’m pretty sure they’d make it.
In other words, if we’re both safely in, I could see us being ranked ahead of them based on that (Committee would probably like to send a message about scheduling), so to that degree I take your point. But if it’s a battle for the last spot, I suspect the Committee ultimately wouldn’t have the gumption to leave them out.
We have Miami and Stanford as quality wins left (if we win out). Clemson would have NC State (who we’ve already beaten) and Miami (who we would have beaten) or Va Tech (who Clemson has already beaten). Unless our schedule goes to hell all of a sudden, I can’t see us winning out and getting passed by Clemson.
My confidence is in the history, combined with strength of schedule and the eye test.
As you note nicely 6 teams is the historical ceiling. In that scenario what are the odds that some of those teams are: a 11-1 Wisconsin, a Pac-12 team, or a group of 5 team? (I think quite likely) All of those ND would be selected over.
We can certainly list a number of teams that would be selected ahead of ND if they win out. But history also says the likelihood of 4 or more doing so is incredibly unlikely even if each one has somewhat decent chance of winning out considered alone.
Using the FPI chance of winning out for the teams most likely to do so with the result that they would be a conference champ (so not Penn State):
Team/Chance of winning out
tOSU 55.2
Bama 36.6
Clemson 36.4
Wash 32.5
That gives a 2% probability that all 4 win out. If you agree that Washington wouldn’t pass ND even as champ, then the next highest is:
Okla 20.1
For a 1.5% chance. Yeah I’m confident that if ND wind out they’re in.
Honestly, the part that pisses me off is that the discussion is directed towards “assuming Georgia and Alabama are both in (one of whom just lost their conference championship game), do we leave out a 1-loss OU, a 1-loss tOSU, a 1-loss Clemson, or a 1-loss ND?” Then the follow up discussion is all about how conferences will be pissed off at ND being in there.
Why is no one talking about how ridiculous it is to have two teams in from the same conference, WHO JUST FREAKING PLAYED AGAINST EACH OTHER, at the exclusion of other deserving teams? I don’t know, hopefully Georgia or Alabama will lose one in the regular season, clearing the picture up, but I really do think that if we’re going to have conference championships be a major factor in selection, they should be viewed as an unofficial quarterfinal.
I think one could argue it would be more ridiculous to include ND over a 1-loss Georgia, when ND lost a head-to-head matchup in their building.
But there’s not going to be much of an argument for a 12-1 Bama team that loses the SECCG. AIN’T PLAYED NOBODY PAUL
Well, the whole “early loss/late loss” argument does still seem to hold some water.
Unless something really weird happens elsewhere, I firmly believe the SEC CG loser is out. All the fuss among the talking heads about Bama and Georgia both getting in is just that, fuss. I’m not buying it.
Wow scarponi. Mad statistical wisdom done just got dropped,
But BAMA doesn’t need to win out. Just win the SEC. Then the concern is a one loss Georgia with a head to head advantage. That leaves 2 spots for tOSU, Clemson, OK. The other problem is that if those teams don’t win out then other teams can be just as or nearly as competitive with us, e.g. PSU, VA Tech, TCU.
“I’ve used AP rankings for this discussion, as I’m not clairvoyant enough to know the committee rankings ahead of time and the Coaches Poll is made by smelly stupid poopy-heads.”
Give this man the Pulitzer.
Y’all is not asking the right question:
How do I get that #33trucking hat?
I need it!
My dad ordered me one and a shirt yesterday…I’ll find out where he got it
There are knock-offs available on Etsy and other similar sites, I think. The university is supposedly going to offer authentic ones to benefit a charity once they make sure they’re completely clear with the NCAA.
Yeah, thats where mine is coming from. It looks identical though, so…
Clearwall’s the guy who borrowed his buddy’s “We Are The World” album so he could tape it. “It sounds identical though, so…”
Ah, I see it. $25.00 for a knock-off? But for a hat that encapsulates our year thus far versus maybe never seeing the light of day with NCAA’s nonsense? Decisions, decisions…
Okay. Number three. Beat Wake.
Really glad they see how impressive Notre Dame has been this year. ND deserves their spot at #3. They have earned it with their play on the field. A little shocked that Ohio State was not in the top 4. I thought their win versus #2 Penn St would carry more weight. I have no complaints about the initial rankings. A lot of pissed off Cane and Badger fans though. Notre Dame’s destiny is in their own hands and thats all you can ask for with a month remaning.
Cane and Badge fans need to remember this isn’t the old days of “undefeateds must be ranked above teams with losses, no matter what.” Canes, you’ll get your shot–maybe if you didn’t look like absolute garbage against the worst team in the P5, you could complain. Wisconsin at least is blowing out bad teams, and got hosed (or lucky) in their cross-division games. They didn’t schedule well OOC, though.
Wisconsin isn’t really blowing teams out like they should be. It’s maybe not in their DNA to get style points, but they will need to go 13-0.
FAU by 17
Northwestern by 9 (but a secretly decent team)
Purdue by 8
Illinois by 14
Eh, who’s their 13th win? No way they go thru Penn State or tOSU, but hope they destroy Meatchicken
I hate scUM too, but I think them finishing relatively highly helps us. It props up Sparty which props us up as well. How amazing would it be if they beat tOSU?
True dat, but if they beat tOSU doesn’t that mean they win the Conference and remain undefeated? Not good, and not amazing.
I think Clearwall was suggesting it be amazing if Michigan were to beat Ohio State, not Wisconsin.
Ah, makes sense
It makes sense when you look at the full rankings.
Wins vs 17, 20, 24 > Win vs #7
FiveThirtyEight updated their numbers in light of the wk1 rankings (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2017-college-football-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo). ND’s odds of making the playoffs in the event of winning out went from ~50% to ~65%. I think the latter is a lot closer to right. But, as that implies, it’s still no sure thing.
Why do you keep warning us that they might not get in? How do you continue to fret over it, even when they open in the top four?
Because every single year, it changes dramatically from week 1 to the end of the season. Because everyone else gets a 13th data point in a conference championship game that the committee, by their own rules, has to weight as important. Because our opponents really need to help us out by taking care of business, and that’s by no means guaranteed. Quite honestly, I’m not looking forward to the “see, this is why we should join a conference!!!!!!one!!!” screaming if we don’t get in. This isn’t the old days of the AP/UPI polls, where you stay where you’re at unless you lose, and move up if people above you lose. The committee isn’t bound by what they released last night even next week–we’ve seen several times where teams won and moved down the rankings because of what happens around the CFB world. Hell, the very first playoff, TCU went from 4th (3rd?) to out of the playoff on the LAST WEEK despite blowing out their opponent. Feel free to think that being in the top 4 now means we’ll stay there–there are way too many scenarios remaining that could change that. OU alone has 3 top 25 teams remaining on their schedule. I’m inclined to think that when push comes to shove, unless we get some help in the form of at least 3 conferences eating themselves (Pac12 complete, Big12 and ACC pending), we’re going to be ultimately penalized for not playing in a conference championship game. Of course, I’m in the minority by being perfectly fine with that as the price of independence and we should have gotten a few more yards and a Yoon FG if we didn’t want to face that possibility, but that’s an argument for when it happens. I think it’s probably about 50/50 whether or not things break our way and those conferences eliminate themselves, and then probably 50/50 as to what the committee will do with it. But none of it matters at this point, because the season will not go how we think. Auburn will beat either UGA or Bama. Iowa State will win the Big12. Sparty will take out tOSU. Va Tech beats Clemson in a rematch. SOMETHING will happen, and it will turn over the apple cart, and as long as it doesn’t happen to us, that’s a good thing.
My point, though stated poorly, is fretting over it accomplishes nothing for anyone. I’m a big believer in planner my for contingencies, but worrying about things you have no control over is just wasted energy.
“I’m a big believer in planner my for contingencies, but worrying about things you have no control over is just wasted energy.”
Isn’t that what this site is for?
That’s a point I agree with. The way it was phrased, it sounded as if you were saying “why worry? We’re already in the top 4, unless we lose we can’t fall out” which is demonstrably wrong.
I’m pretty sure I agree with your point – assuming that you’re not arguing against the volatility of the committee rankings in there anywhere. I consider the volatility to be an extreme positive, because you’re not going to get locked out by preseason perceptions of somebody else. It might lead to other weirdness, like the TCU situation (which was definitely hurt by Big 12 weirdness as well), but I’m OK with that as the price for removing confirmation bias.
Here’s the big thing for me: For a non-conference champ to get in, two conference champs have to be left out, and we’re almost there already. The Pac 12 is essentially out today; I have very little confidence that Washington will win out, and even if they do, I don’t think their resume will be good enough. The SEC champ will be in, clearly. That means we need only one of the Big Ten, Big 12, and ACC to have something funky go on to clearly eliminate them. If Clemson loses to NC State, that should pretty much do it for the ACC. If Oklahoma loses to Okie State, that should pretty much do it for the Big 12. If OSU loses to anyone, that’ll put the Big 12 on life support.
As I’ve covered ad nauseam here and elsewhere, I’m pretty confident that the SEC runner-up will be out no matter who it is. I think it’ll be a “you had your chance” thing, and neither Alabama nor Georgia would have a super-compelling quality win list at that point.
There are a *lot* of scenarios to get just that tiny little bit of mayhem that we need in one of three conferences. I like our chances.
Yeah, I’m fine with it. It is what it is. I think the old way of thinking is dumb, and the committee’s volatility is much better. The problem, as we’ve said, is that when you base everything on body of work, there’s a lot of chance for other teams in conferences to get those resume building wins. Us too, with our schedule, but frankly Miami is living on borrowed time and Stanford doesn’t impress me at all, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see either of them drop a few more games. Sparty being ranked in the first place always seemed like a joke, and I think they beat Michigan because Michigan sucks, not because Sparty is good. So my point is that there are plenty of scenarios that could break our way, but there are also plenty of scenarios that even if we win, our wins look less and less impressive, and meanwhile Oklahoma beats Okie Lite, TCU, and Iowa State in a rematch in their title game, Ohio State beats Michigan (who sucks, but the committee will like that), Sparty (canceling out our win as equal data points), and Wisconsin…etc. If UGA’s only loss is to Bama in the SECCG, we won’t jump over them. Etc. etc. etc. For every OMG WE’RE THIRD WE’RE IN IF WE WIN OUT scenario, there’s a counter-scenario that results in us being out.
TL;DR: The first playoff, tOSU was 14th and 3 SEC teams (none of which were Bama) were in the top 3 in the first ranking. Last year, Texas A&M (!!!!) was in the top 4 of the first ranking. There’s a lot of football to be played, and nothing is guaranteed. If we keep beating our opponents soundly, that’s the best we can do. Additional chaos in the Big12, ACC, and B1G may or may not be needed, but any statements on 1 November of “I can’t believe you don’t think we’d make it in” are just kind of silly.
That sounds very harsh. Let me rephrase that. Why do you keep doing this to yourself? It’s out of your control. It’s out of ND’s control. All they can do is continue to dominate teams and it will all play out.
I agree. Being ranked 3rd now (while still having Top 25 games @Miami + @Stanford to go) there’s just no reason to believe that if ND goes 11-1 that they’re getting left out at this point based on how the committee actually operates and how they have already favored the decisive quality wins and impressive SOS for Notre Dame.
Might be difficult still to believe, digest or understand but oh well. The bigger challenge and place to turn attention to is getting to 11-1 which is certainly no sure thing.
Beyond the point below, that FiveThirtyEight thing is actually pretty fun to mess around with.
What if…….it doesn’t play out?
Because it seems to be at least a significant minority opinion here that if we win, we’re definitely in – which is clearly not right. It is, though, *probable* that if we win, we’re in. But, off the top of my head, it’s not too hard to think of something recent that FiveThirtyEight said had a 2/3 chance of happening where things quite didn’t work out for the favored side.
To your point over not having any control over it, I mean, fair enough, but nobody posting on this board has any control over any of this, so if you take that to its logical conclusion, like, what’s the point of even caring about any of it?
ND 2015, TCU 2014. Look em up
“But, off the top of my head, it’s not too hard to think of something recent that FiveThirtyEight said had a 2/3 chance of happening where things quite didn’t work out for the favored side.”
But enough about the US Men’s National Soccer Team…
I think that was like 90%+ by the game against T&T.
FiveThirtyEight’s model is fun to mess around with, but in my mind it remains inherently flawed (not the first time one of their models has been) as long as it continues to project Washington with a better chance of making the playoff by winning out than Notre Dame. (Washington is currently 76% to ND’s 64%.) There’s just no way I buy that:
Washington’s quality wins if they win out (current CFP rank):
USC (17) – projected conf. champ matchup
Stanford (21)
Wash St. (25)
LOSS: Unranked ASU
ND’s quality wins if they win out (CFP):
Miami (10)
USC (17)
NC State (20)
Stanford (21)
Michigan St (24)
LOSS: #1 Georgia
Really? REALLY?! Washington is more likely to get in if they win out than ND? No, that’s crap. I’m sorry a conference championship doesn’t mean that much to the committee. At worst I’d put ND on par with OkSt., who FiveThirtyEight gives an 83% chance of being in if they win out.
I completely agree with that – having spent more time playing with their system than I’d like to admit, that is by far the biggest flaw/bone-to-pick I have found. IMO, to the extent you want to worry about other teams beyond ND, it makes sense to worry about 12-1 Oklahoma or 12-1 Clemson or 12-1 Georgia/Alabama or, as you say, *maybe* 12-1 Okie State, but not really 12-1 Washington.
How about another hypothetical. All the best teams from the SEC, Pac-12, Big-12, and ACC win out, as well as Notre Dame. But OSU and Penn State both lose (MSU gets real weird and plays well all of a sudden). If Wisconsin goes undefeated with a win over a 2-loss (now 3 losses after losing to Wisconsin) Big Ten East Champ, does Wisconsin get in? With a 4 (or maybe 5) loss Michigan or maybe 4 loss Northwestern as their 2nd best win?
The committee would have a hard time keeping Wisconsin out, but they would also have to move Wisonsin up over the SEC loser, Notre Dame, Clemson, or Oklahoma/TCU just for beating OSU/PSU with 2 losses. I’m assuming UCF wouldn’t get the same benefit for beating one of those two teams; would Wisconsin deserve it?
In that scenario Wisconsin would have one quality win – probably a top-15 win over a two-loss OSU or PSU – and the worst SOS by far of any playoff contender. I don’t think they would stack up well to anyone else, despite winning the Big Ten title.
And it’s a moo point anyway, like a cow’s opinion. They seem like a solid bet to drop one before the conference title game or get boat-raced (again) by whoever they face in it.
I it’s possible they’ll both drop a game before the title game (Michigan) AND get boat-raced in the Big 10 title game. In past years, people would correctly be calling them a paper title based on their poll rankings, but the committee seems to recognize that already.
Can someone please explain why our S&P+ Defense is ranked 18 when our sub categories are ranked 8, 7, 9, 3, 7 and 5?
Because you forgot 9, 47, 8, 49, 37, and 88. Scroll down that page to see a second set of data.