After a resoundingly successful early signing period, the big question is how will Notre Dame finish 2018 recruiting with just a handful of key prospects still on the board? The first-ever early signing period has been a big topic of discussion for the 18 Stripes staff. We’re confident it will have some kind of impact on the national picture, but we’re not sure how much or what shape that impact will take. Many college coaching staffs are probably in the same boat. Regarding Notre Dame, at least, we can say one thing with high confidence: The staff will be able to focus a ton of energy and effort on a much smaller group of prospects down the stretch. All 21 members of Notre Dame’s 2018 class signed on Wednesday (yes, including Lenzy); I can’t confirm this myself, but there are reports that only Notre Dame hit that 100% conversion rate. Impressive.
That remarkable milestone lets the staff zero in on their reshaped board with unprecedented intensity. I usually shy away from words like “unprecedented,” but I think this case warrants it. Has Notre Dame had 21 commits by Christmas before this year? Almost certainly, and probably not even that long ago. There’s a big difference between “committed” and “signed,” though, however solid those commitments might be. No Irish staff of the modern recruiting era has been able to completely set aside the kids in the class with six weeks to go in the cycle. Buckle up, folks. The stretch run will be very interesting.
The Reset Big Board
Notre Dame has extended 176 known offers in the 2018 class. 41 of those prospects remain completely uncommitted; a number more are committed elsewhere but unsigned, with two such prospects considering the Irish. I’ll include all 40 “on the board” prospects in the list here, but only discuss those who at least have Notre Dame on the radar.
| 247C Score | Name | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| Offense | ||
| .9096 | Jashaun Corbin | APB |
| .9757 | Penei Sewell | OG |
| .9051 | Chris Murray | OG |
| .9890 | Nicholas Petit-Frere | OT |
| .9585 | Rasheed Walker | OT |
| .8776 | Luke Jones | OT |
| .9085 | Leonard Taylor | TE |
| .9933 | Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR |
| .9875 | Devon Williams | WR |
| .9723 | Jaylen Waddle | WR |
| .9692 | Justyn Ross | WR |
| .9638 | Jalen Hall | WR |
| .9574 | Joshua Moore | WR |
| .9526 | Justin Watkins | WR |
| .9342 | Anthony Schwartz | WR |
| .9304 | Isaah Crocker | WR |
| .9230 | Tommy Bush | WR |
| .9078 | Lawrence Keys | WR |
| .8809 | Geordon Porter | WR |
| .8751 | Jermaine Eskridge | WR |
| .8742 | Kobe Smith | WR |
| Defense | ||
| .9981 | Patrick Surtain | CB |
| .9844 | Isaac Taylor-Stuart | CB |
| .9741 | Bookie Radley-Hiles | CB |
| .9348 | Julius Irvin | CB |
| .9348 | Tre’Shaun Harrison | CB |
| .8930 | Noah Boykin | CB |
| .8777 | Moro Ojomo | DT |
| .8628 | Otito Ogbonnia | DT |
| .8588 | Josh Walker | DT |
| .9567 | Solomon Tuliaupupu | ILB |
| .9402 | Dax Hollifield | ILB |
| .9786 | Kelvin Joseph | S |
| .9572 | Talanoa Hufanga | S |
| .9498 | Aashari Crosswell | S |
| .8499 | BJ Crim | S |
| .8763 | Daniel Carson | SDE |
| .8622 | Malik Langham | SDE |
| .9691 | Tyreke Smith | WDE |
| .9515 | Jayson Oweh | WDE |
| .9268 | Joseph Ossai | WDE |
| .9196 | Andrew Chatfield | WDE |
| .8996 | Elijah Wade | WDE |
Numbers
Notre Dame is done at running back and tight end, so while Corbin and Taylor are technically still on the board, they’re not really. The staff would probably take one or two more offensive tackles, one more defensive back, one inside linebacker, and one strong-side defensive end. Weak-side is less of a need, but the staff would probably take one guy if they could. They probably won’t have the opportunity, though, as they’re not even under fringe consideration by any of these guys. Defensive tackle is interesting – the Irish have two good prospects signed in Jayson Ademilola and Ja’Mion Franklin, but just sent out two more offers to Moro Ojomo and Otitio Ogbonnia. There has been some conjecture about a connection to a possible early departure by Jerry Tillery, but I think those offers make a lot more sense in connection to possible departures much further down the depth chart.
Keep in mind that there are 21 current signees and numbers are already unusually tight. There’s a knee-jerk reaction as an Irish to want everyone, but we really can’t take six more guys this year. I know we say this every year, but seriously, numbers could be a problem this year. For real. Honest.
Prospects
Offense
The key offensive line names to know are Nicholas Petit-Frere and Luke Jones. Petit-Frere is a Composite five-star who is thoroughly inscrutable; he’s a Notre Dame type of kid, but it’s impossible for anyone to figure out where any school stands with him. He’s expected to announce on the regular signing day, February 7th. Jones is an Arkansas commit who eschewed the early signing period to mull over his options. Bret Bielema’s exit made his commitment waver, while Chad Morris’s entrance could solidify it again.
The other target position on offense is wide receiver; while a large group is still on the board, the only kids looking at Notre Dame are Amon-Ra St. Brown, Tommy Bush, and Lawrence Keys. St. Brown is almost certainly headed to USC, especially since his good friend and teammate QB JT Daniels just reclassified from the 2019 class to 2018 and signed with the Trojans. He also just announced a final three of USC, ND, and Stanford, though, and the staff will keep trying. Bush had dropped off the radar, but recently has considered a January official visit. I doubt anything will come of it, but like Andujar said, youneverknow. With Braden Lenzy in the class, Keys might be a luxury; we’ll see if his January visit happens.
Defense
On defense, the final real cornerback targets are Julius Irvin and Noah Boykin. Irvin was reportedly set to sign with Notre Dame last week until a serious family issue caused him to slow down and target the February signing day instead. Notre Dame will continue to battle USC head-to-head for Irvin; whether USC will have room for him could come into play at some point. Boykin, like Jones, is committed to Maryland but didn’t sign. He used an official visit for the NC State game and isn’t likely to visit again before signing, but I would imagine the staff will check on him regularly. Swing DB prospect BJ Crim is an Elko favorite who looked destined for the class at one point, before space became an issue. If Notre Dame strikes out on Irvin and Boykin, would they still take Crim? It’s possible.
Solomon Tuliaupupu is the last realistic shot to do that. The Mater Dei prospect is a teammate of St. Brown and Daniels now, and probably will be at the next level too. But the Irish have a shot thanks to a fantastic official visit with his parents and a bit of a dropped ball from USC, who treated him as a foregone conclusion for a long time.
I’m not sure what to make of the late offers to Moro Ojomo and Otito Ogbonnia, although as noted above, I’m pretty confident they have nothing do with Tillery no matter what he does. A couple of three-star developmental true freshmen do nothing to offset the potential loss of a starting nose guard next season. I don’t know if either projects as a potential offensive lineman, or what. My guess is that one or two of the current depth guys will be moving on and the staff wants to maintain balance, especially since we’re in good shape with a bunch of very good 2019 prospects.
Malik Langham would be a tremendous late get, but Notre Dame has company for the late-blooming Alabaman. Since Notre Dame offered a few weeks ago, Langham has also picked up offers from Alabama, Tennessee, Oregon, and Florida. He seems likely to stay in the South, but again, the staff will work hard to convince him otherwise.
According to Wilfong , tOSU,Clemson, Washington and Mich.St. signed all their commits.
Thanks. 247 had reported on Wednesday that we were the only one, so the others must have checked everyone off over the next couple of days.
And incidentally, he’s being pretty charitable to Ohio there since Jaiden Woodbey, a five-star safety who had been committed to them for a long time, flipped to and signed with Florida State on Wednesday. So in their case it’s “they signed everyone who didn’t decommit.” They also lost five-star tackle Jackson Carman, who was considered an Ohio State lean for two years, to Clemson. It was a good day for them, but not a superb one.
Awesome work – very helpful. One unanswered question, though: what do you think is the likeliest haul, if you had to guess?
Thanks! I think that’s the nicest thing you’ve ever said to me… 😀 I kid, I kid… You know I love you, buddy.
The likeliest haul. Hm. That’s a good question. Conservatively:
– I like our chances with Jones.
– I’m pretty confident we’ll get one of Irvin or Boykin.
– KJ’s time at ND is almost certainly over, which opens up space for Keys. If we push for Keys, I think we’ll get him.
I’m cautiously optimistic on Petit-Frere, but he’s so locked up that even his coach doesn’t know anything about where he might be leaning. He’s a cipher. We’re a dark horse for Solo, but we’re definitely in it. The offers to Ojomo and Ogbonnia might have contingencies attached, and in any case it’s too early to tell how interested they are in ND. Who knows what will develop there.
On the longer side… Langham apparently has a pretty good relationship with former Alabama DC and current Tennessee HC Jeremy Pruitt, which I think will be tough to overcome. I can’t see any way that St. Brown doesn’t end up at USC, even if Wimbush lights it up in the bowl game. There’s really no buzz around Bush, so I don’t see him joining either.
That conservative close would probably result in class ranking of around 10th, whether it’s Irvin or Boykin. If we add Petit-Frere, it should creep up to around 8th. If Polynesian lightning strikes twice and we lure Solo away from USC, it’ll probably still be around 8th.
If we sign no one else by Feb or reached on a few 3 stars, are we still happy with this class? I just don’t want to get my hopes too high from an 8-1 recruiting run then finish out the year with a 1-2 faceplant …
(Not for nothing, I am happy with 9-3 but context matters 😏 )
I would be, since I’m not sure how much difference it makes. ASB isn’t coming to South Bend even if the Irish go 3-0 down the stretch and his bro has 150+ yards in each game and Wimbush looks like he can throw the ball. We feel a lot better, but recruit-wise I don’t really see it making too, too much of a difference for this year’s haul given all the other factors and variables in play that are more important so late in the cycle.
If anything, IMO, being “close but not quite”, is a reason you can recruit a guy like Griffith and promise him a look at serious playing time early and flip a top-100 guy late, but that’s just my opinion that I doubt he comes to ND if the secondary had locked down Miami and Stanford and the team is playoff bound and returning a lot of starters for next year.
I’m pretty happy with this class as is, since like Brendan’s mentioned before it’s got more talented HS defense level players than ND’s had in the modern Army/UA all-star game era. Plus I’m drinking the kool aid to believe there’s a chance they got a big time type of QB too who could potentially be the best in the program in the past decade. That’s good enough for me right there. Add a few more and finish 8ish overall and it’s two enthusiastic thumbs up for me.
It will certainly improve the talent level on the team. By that I mean it is better than our last two classes, it has a higher percentage of 4/5*’s (currently sitting at 52%) and those additional 4 stars at upper level ones and at positions of real need (like DB). Often our top rated guys are TE’s and OL. So we’re spreading around the top talent at different positions.
But it’s still just a little light in terms of talent. A couple more 4 stars I think (getting closer to 60%) would put it in a very good position. Irvin would be a big help but while the class will improve the talent on the team overall, and especially at key positions, it is still a few guys short of a championship level class (60% 4/5 *s).
I would say what we have now is pretty good. I want to average 1 body per position each year, with at least half those being 4 stars. So at least a 4 star at every position every other year and decent 3 stars to fill in. This should give you a starting 22 of basically all 4 stars, with decent depth.
The only things I would want to add in order are DE (no chance), OL (decent chance), CB (good chance), S (but only one better than Moala, so no chance?).
Offense I give B+ because of Jurkovec and the WRs. If the OL haul last year hadn’t been so impressive, that would drastically drop my offensive recruiting grade. I’m not worried about RB since we should be fine this year, Holmes looks good, and generally a freshman can fill in no problem (I’m basically ignoring Jahmir Smith, seems like just a body).
Defense I give an A-. Best in years. But completely missing on DE two years in a row is a serious serious problem.
Here are all the top 200 defenders we have signed recently. The top 100 and top 150 numbers are so much better than anything since 2013. We have 4 guys that are ranked higher than everyone outside Crawford and Morgan since 2013
2018: Griffith (64), Allen (77), Lamb (132), Simon (133), Ademilola (162)
2017: Ewell (147)
2016: Hayes (133), Kareem (196)
2015: Crawford (112), Barajas (138), Tillery (156), Bilal (194)
2014: Morgan (54), Trumbetti (147), Watkins (182)
2013: Smith (2), Redfield (29), Rochell (111), Luke (154)
We’re at eleven 4+ star signees right now. Based on past national champions we really should have our threshold at 14 or more each year (or start recruiting multiple 5 stars each year). So hopefully we can close with a few more.
https://www.sbnation.com/a/cfb-preview-2017/blue-chip-ratio – that article is looking pretty good, except it doesn’t account for Baker Mayfield being amazing
What is truly disgusting about that article, is that not only is Alabama already far and away the top %, they are also the 11th most improved over 3 years.
Yeah. 5 stars would be nice.
Scarponi – we need to remember that 5th years count too so not quite 14. It’s really about the percentage because each year we have a different total number. The other thing to account for is the quality of those 4 stars. It often seems that while ND is in league with the top 10 in terms of % 4 stars we often have much lower quality 4 stars and rarely 5 stars (not to mention position).
So a few more top 100 type kids while keeping similar % of 4 stars is necessary (and not to mention we fell off the last couple of years in terms of % of 4 stars in our classes) and those overall good numbers have been driven by a few really good classes.
I wrote some “fanposts” around signing day for a couple years (on the old site) about this. I used to think % is what matters. But the fact is that we have frequently been under 85 scholarships where other teams are not. This means that they would still have more bluechip talent with an equal percentage. This is why I decided it’s important to think in terms of raw numbers.
I know 5th years count, but there are also 4/5* defections every year as well, not to mention junior draft departures – those have to be accounted for. This is why even if you’re going think of it in terms of the percentage route, you need to recruit at a *higher* percentage than what you want to maintain.
Here is a bit of what I said from the 2016 post:
“Averaging the past four national champion’s blue chip numbers we end up with 53.75 four star+ players on the top team every year. For ease, let’s set our goal at the median number of 55. Having 55 or more players at 4 stars+ by no means will result in a championship, but it should be enough talent to reasonably compete for one!”
“To reach 55 players at 4 stars+, I estimate each class needs to bring in 14-15 players of that ranking minimum. Over four years this would result in 56-60 total, but once one accounts for players lost to attrition/early NFL departures over that span, and then adds a couple back to the number for 5th year seniors who remain with the team, the end result of 14-15 blue chips each year reasonably approximates our target number of 55.”
I totally agree that the quality of the 4 star matters, but at that point your analysis has gone way past looking at numbers or percentage. I also fully agree our numbers have been below what we should desire them to be the last few years.
That’s great; thanks!
Good thoughts Scarponi.
“This is why even if you’re going think of it in terms of the percentage route, you need to recruit at a *higher* percentage than what you want to maintain.”
I entirely agree since natural attrition means you lose some people – and it’s not always the 3 stars.
My point about the quality of the 4 star (admittedly going past percentages) is that when I looked at this one year I saw that while ND was close or in the championship range our high end 4/5 stars seemed to be significantly less than what the “normal” school has that is within the “proper” percentage for championships.
It makes sense about the raw numbers but the difficulty is that often every 4 years or so there is a smaller 17-18 class and so needing to get 14-15 4 stars is unreasonable. Whereas in fact you really would need to have gotten 16 or 17 some those other years to keep up the percentages.
If we are typically under the 85 (and you are right we typically are; Kelly actually said they are being more aggressive with it this year) then you have to set the goal you want at like 62% (51/85 = 60% but 51/83 = 62%) for the roster and then a little more to include attrition.
Re: Quality – According to 247 Team Talent Composite we’ve been in the top 10 this year and last year, and yet both years we were the only team in the top 20+ that did not have a single 5 star on the roster. I think that tells you everything you need to know about where we are at the moment with upper echelon talent.
Re: Raw vs. % – If you want to say *average* 14-15 each year I’m fine with that. But I still hold that in the end you want a certain threshold total on the team, and while percentages can approximate that, it’s just more straightforward looking at direct numbers for getting to that threshold.
Good context. Thanks for the info!
Luke Jones just committed.
I know a lot of guys on this site’s disdain for BK is super strong, but this staff is doing some very good things. I’ve never understood how folks want to blame the head guy for all of the bad things, but not want to give him credit for all of the good things. The defensive coordinator, for example. BVG was a horrible hire. I agree that BK deserves all of the blame for both hiring, and not firing him sooner. The Elko hire though was a brilliant hire. His defense is sound, and from what I read, he’s a great recruiter too. BK deserves all of the credit for hiring him.
I like what they’ve done with this recruiting class. They’ve gone after guys that last year’s staff would have wrote off as too much of a reach and got those guys. I doubt any team out there, to include TOSU and Bama feel like they got everyone they wanted and needed. If ND can pull in a few more guys( Petite, Ervin, Boykin) some kind of combination look me that, they should have a competitive team in the next couple of years.
TOSU lost some kids everyone thought they had and Bama and Clemson have highly ranked players but not a lot numbers right now.
I do not have disdain for BK but am not infatuated with him either. He is the one responsible for all the hires. Kelly or Long or both did not make any adjustments the last 3 games and got their asses kicked and scraped by Navy. Everyone raves about Elko. Yes, he improved the defense but it is far from elite. they are not in the top 25 and that is where a team needs to be to compete for the NC. The QB was not coached well or did not pass well so maybe TR needs to pack up. Same thing with all the receivers. Long is supposed to be a TE coach and they did not impress me. Maybe the receivers coach should go too. Polian’s ST were mediocre and with all the talent underperformed. He does recruit well but they need someone who can coach and recruit. End of rant
There’s not a coordinator on planet earth that makes that group of defenders a top-25 unit in 2017. And I’m not sure we’ll find what you’re looking for by firing every single position coach and coordinator every season when 12-0 isn’t delivered.
About the only agreeable thing I can find is yeah, I would have expected more out of the tight ends, but considering the quarterback couldn’t reliably make the simplest of throws on basic routes, I’m pretty happy that they just concentrated on R’ing TDB rather than try to incorporate more passing to WR’s or TE’s, which likely wouldn’t have been as successful.
Kelly himself said that Wimbush had a technique problem and that is with the coaches. I did not say anything about firing all the coaches. or even Elko but I am not enthralled with him either. The coaches that should be reviewed for firing include Rees and the receivers coach after this game.
So just fire everyone and start over again? I see this team as being talented. Talented enough to win a championship? I don’t know. But I think they are talented enough to compete for it.
The point of the discussion above is that the team really *isn’t* talented enough to legitimately compete for a national championship. If we have a really good regular season next year (i.e., the team over-performs its talent and has luck on its side), we might get into the playoff based on the hard schedule and get blown out of the water in the semi-final by an actually legitimate title contender.
A recruiting class like the current incoming class needs to be around median in order to compete for national championships, not be the best class in 5 years. We need 3 or 4 of this class or better in a row to legitimately compete for a championship.
Of course, hats off to the staff for pulling together that kind of class coming off a 4-8 season. That’s a legitimate accomplishment. But, BK has far too much apparent job security for getting “wow, great accomplishment given where things were”-type credit for doing what needs to be done consistently to be where the program wants to be.
I’m not giving Kelly any credit for being better now relative to what we were doing from 2014-16, and I don’t believe others here generally do that either. I’m not sure if that was your point or if you were directing that at the ND powers that be, but let’s just clear that up first.
I agree that the incoming talent level has been too low, particularly on defense. That’s due in large part to BVG’s incompetence (at coaching college kids effectively) and negligence (in recruiting), which of course ultimately falls on Kelly’s desk. We can’t have holes at DT, LB, and S and expect to field a decent defense. I think the talent level on offense has been fine, certainly good enough at least even if we haven’t pulled five-star skill position guys.
What Elko did this year in fielding a borderline top 25 defense (21st FEI, 30th S&P+, 9th in rushing TDs and 4th in 30+ plays allowed) with a rice-paper-thin safety and DT depth chart is nothing short of sorcery. It’s unfortunate, to say the least, that the BVG error put us in position to need sorcery from a top ten DC to field a decent defense, but hopefully we’re ready to move on from that.
If this class becomes the new norm, defense should get a lot easier by 2019. Given what I’ve seen from Elko on the trail, I’m starting to think that this will be the defensive recruiting floor, which is pretty crazy. The 2018 defense still will have some big question marks and really needs Tillery and Coney to come back; if they do, we should trend up. From 2019 forward, if we keep pulling talent like this, things will be much brighter.
Definitely was intended w/r/t the ND powers-that-be and a few commenters here. I think all the authors at 18S are well within the range of reasonableness w/r/t Kelly.
Gotcha, thanks. I get a little prickly about perceptions of me and the rest of the 18S crew, ahem, elsewhere because I think they’re not grounded in any direct knowledge of what we actually write/think. Hardly surprising, considering… Sometimes that carries over into being a bit prickly/defensive here as well. Water under the bridge.
I know my general optimism is a bit of a running joke here, and I’m fine with that – I like to think that I make generally realistic assessments and prefer optimism on how things will unfold from where we are. Sometimes misguided, granted, but that’s me. My father sent me this in college via snail mail, which says more about my age than I’d like to admit: