Welcome back to the Playoff Big Board, here in the strangest of college football seasons. Usually our board consists of all ranked undefeated teams and all ranked one-loss Power 5 teams in the committee rankings. I’m going to tweak it a bit this year to reflect all those teams that I believe are seriously on the board – for example, 3-0 Oregon fits the undefeated team standard, but at #15 they’re far outside the playoff picture at the moment.

I define “resume wins” for our purposes as wins over currently-ranked teams; it gets too complicated to project whether teams will drop out of or climb into the rankings as the year progresses. Past and possible resume wins are listed in schedule order, and given how far along we are in the season will also include potential conference championship game matchups.

The “FPI Table-Running Probability” is taken from the ESPN’s FPI rankings here. I don’t have a preference for FPI’s data over other advanced stats models – they all have pros and cons. The FPI probabilities are just the most readily available.

Undefeated Teams

These teams will generally control their own destinies, except of course for the Group of 5 teams (sorry guys).

#1 Alabama, 7-0

This week: vs. #22 Auburn

Resume wins to date: vs. #5 Texas A&M, vs. #9 Georgia

Possible resume wins: vs. #22 Auburn, vs. #6 Florida (SEC championship game)

FPI table-running probability: 73%

Alabama obliterated a decent Kentucky defense this past week. Nonetheless, something feels off about them this year; they don’t seem quite as juggernaut-ish as usual. FPI still doesn’t see them having much trouble with the rest of their schedule, though, even against a top ten Florida team, and I have to agree with it. I think there’s a clear top four this year and then a pretty sizeable drop-off to everyone else.

#2 Notre Dame, 8-0

This week: at #19 North Carolina

Resume wins to date: vs. #3 Clemson

Possible resume wins: vs. #3 Clemson (ACC championship game)

FPI table-running probability: 27%

Notre Dame’s new conference schedule has hurt their regular season resume, ironically enough. Had COVID not upended the entire college football world, the Irish’s resume would include wins over #3 Clemson and #16 Wisconsin, with potentially ranked USC on the horizon. Now, if Notre Dame stays in the playoff picture it might mean that Clemson is the only ranked team they’ll face in the regular season. FPI didn’t think much of Notre Dame’s chances against Clemson before November 7th and its opinion didn’t change appreciably after that game, which is why the win-out probability here is so low.

North Carolina is a critical matchup for playoff perceptions. I don’t think anything Notre Dame does could push them into the #1 spot, but a good win should solidify their hold on the #2 spot.

#4 Ohio State, 4-0

This week: at Illinois

Resume wins to date: vs. #12 Indiana

Possible resume wins: vs. #11 Northwestern (Big Ten championship game)

FPI table-running probability: 71%

Ohio State jumped all over Indiana early but then had a legitimate scare, as Indiana had the ball down seven at the end of the game. Their offense looks really good but their defense, particularly their secondary, is a bit shaky. I doubt any of Illinois, Michigan State, Michigan, and certainly Northwestern can take advantage of that, though, so like FPI says, they’re likely to steamroll their way to the playoff. I’m mildly surprised they’re behind Clemson, but kudos to the committee for showing the number of games played matters.

#8 Northwestern, 5-0

Resume wins to date: vs. #16 Wisconsin

Possible resume wins: vs. #4 Ohio State (Big Ten championship game)

FPI Table-Running Probability: 10%

Northwestern just logged its biggest win in a while by knocking off early darling Wisconsin. It’s good to see that in a compressed season, Wisconsin has been considerate enough to compress its typical practice of beating up on bad teams early and getting whacked by the meat of its schedule. Anyway, the Fighting Fitzes… They are very firmly in control of their path to the Big Ten title game. They would have to drop at least two of at Michigan State, at Minnesota, and vs. Illinois, depending on what Iowa – who they beat earlier – does. That scenario isn’t impossible but feels pretty unlikely. So they have the inside track to the right to get clobbered by the Buckeyes.

#7 Cincinnati, 8-0

This week: at Temple

Resume wins to date: None

Possible resume wins: at #25 Tulsa, vs. #14 BYU??, vs. #25 Tulsa (AAC championship game)

FPI table-running probability: 59%

#14 BYU, 9-0

This week: Off

Resume wins to date: None

Possible resume wins: vs. #7 Cincinnati??

FPI table-running probability: 89%

Cincinnati and BYU both suffer from the same problem. They’ve looked pretty good throughout the season but their schedules have been, charitably, hot garbage. BYU’s is even worse than Cincinnati’s; the Cougars’ strength of schedule per FPI is 109th, while the Bearcats’ is 85th. BYU is actually off for the next two weeks; their next scheduled game is against San Diego State on December 12th.

Washington was interested in playing BYU this weekend but BYU didn’t want that game. Depending on who you ask, it was either because of a mismatch on testing protocols or because BYU wanted to see where it stood with the committee before doing anything. Cincinnati and BYU both have an open date on December 5th, and there has been some speculation about them playing each other. I doubt that will come together but it’s an interesting wrinkle that’s out there.

It’s also worth noting here that while Cincy has a fighting chance at the playoff, at #14 now BYU effectively has no chance and in fact will be fighting to get into a NY6 bowl. That might make the Cougars more likely to fill that open date with Cincy or whoever else they can get.

One Loss Teams

These teams aren’t out of it but will need some breaks to fall their way. The good news for them is that every college football season contains a looooot of breaks.

#3 Clemson, 7-1

This week: vs. Pitt

Resume wins to date: vs. #10 Miami

Possible resume wins: vs. #2 Notre Dame (ACC championship game)

The one loss: at #2 Notre Dame, in overtime

FPI table-running probability: 63%

Clemson’s loss to Notre Dame didn’t do much to their playoff chances, aside from making it substantially harder for them to get the top seed. Their game with Florida State was called off last weekend because they flew to Tallahassee with a COVID positive player, which made Dabo go all Karen on, well, everyone. He’s arguing fiercely that they shouldn’t be forced to make the game up, presumably because that would take away their bye week before the ACC title game. Notre Dame rescheduled Wake Forest for the weekend of December 5th, of course without a peep.

Back to business: Clemson is in the conference title game if they win out. If they lose one – to Pitt, Virginia Tech, or Florida State  – and Miami wins out, Miami will make the ACC championship. Drama!

#5 Texas A&M, 5-1

This week: vs. LSU

Resume wins to date: vs. #6 Florida

Possible resume wins: at #22 Auburn

The one loss: at #1 Alabama, badly

FPI table-running probability:  30% (locked out of SEC CG)

#6 Florida, 6-1

This week: vs. Kentucky

Resume wins to date: vs. #9 Georgia (neutral site)

Possible resume wins: vs. #1 Alabama (SEC championship game)

The one loss: at #5 Texas A&M, close

FPI table-running probability: 11%

It’s hard to know what to think of the Gators. At times they look like world-beaters and at times they look kinda ugly. Still, the win over Georgia is a big one, and they’re very close to locking in their spot in the conference title game – they only need to win two of vs. Kentucky, at Tennessee, and vs. LSU. Can they knock off Alabama if they get there? I doubt it, but this year nothing would surprise me.

#10 Miami, 7-1

This week: Off

Resume wins to date: None

Possible resume wins: vs. #19 North Carolina, vs. #2 Notre Dame (ACC championship game)

The one loss: at #3 Clemson, by a lot

FPI table-running probability: 6%

Miami is barely clinging to faint playoff hopes. Thanks to their head to head loss versus Clemson, they need to sweep Wake Forest, North Carolina, and Georgia Tech while the Tigers to lose to one of Pitt, Virginia Tech, or Florida State. That would let them sneak into the conference title game. Improbable? Abso-friggin-lutely. Impossible? Nope. Even if all that goes down, they would need to beat Notre Dame as a likely double-digit underdog in the ACC title game.

Honorable Mention

#9 Georgia (5-2) sits in the top ten despite losing by 17 to Alabama and 16 to Florida. Kinda odd. They have an outside shot of getting into the SEC title game but a seriously uphill climb to get into the playoff.

#11 Oklahoma (6-2) leads the Big 12 and has turned it around after starting 1-2, but that start did the necessary damage to their playoff hopes. In fact the entire Big 12 seems to be on the outside looking in.

#12 Indiana (4-1) similarly is just barely on the fringe after falling to Ohio State. They need the Buckeyes to lose multiple games to bad teams to get back in the Big Ten title game, and even then they would need more chaos elsewhere to get a chance to jump into the top four. But mathematically, not dead yet.