Hopefully you enjoyed our overview of the 2021 Notre Dame recruiting class with recruit grades and some thoughts on the class. Over the next several days we’ll go into a deeper dive on each position group, starting today with the offensive backfield. Plus the kicker, because he has to go somewhere.
As a reminder, here’s our standard grading scale for this exercise:
95-100: Truly elite prospect with All-American potential
90-94: Multi-year starter with All-conference level potential
85-89: Eventual starter with chance to play as underclassman
80-84: Raw prospect with decent potential but a couple years away from impact
75-79: Likely a backup
70-74: Reach by the coaching staff
Signees
| .9685 | 92 | Tyler Buchner | La Mesa, CA | 6-2/205 | QB | * | * | * | * | * |
| .9108 | 87 | Audric Estime | Montvale, NJ | 6-2/215 | RB | * | * | * | * | * |
| .8742 | 89 | Logan Diggs | Metairie, LA | 6-0/195 | RB | * | * | * | * | * |
| .8189 | 89 | Josh Bryan | Chatsworth, CA | 6-0/190 | K | * | * | * | * | * |
| .8126 | 72 | Ron Powlus III | Mishawaka, IN | 6-3/225 | QB | * | * | * | * | * |
QB Tyler Buchner
18S Average: 92.0
Brendan: 95
There has generally been an inverse relationship between hype and performance for Kelly-era QB recruits. I’m going to be foolishly optimistic enough to believe Buchner will break that trend. He’s an extraordinary athlete – not quite at Brandon Wimbush’s level, I think, but closer to him than to Everett Golson or Phil Jurkovec. He’s not the most polished passer yet and he has only two years of high school ball, losing one to injury and one to COVID shutdowns. Those are the big question marks about him. Everything else is there – size, athleticism, arm strength, bonkers stats, and even time in the spotlight, given that he traveled the country on the lacrosse circuit as a top-five recruit in that sport. Absent the most incredible spring ever as an early enrollee I don’t think he’ll be ready to start in 2021, but I can see him taking over in 2022 and making some pretty incredible highlight reels.
Eric: 90
No one has had a more fascinating recruitment and been impacted by the pandemic in this class more than Buchner. A true 5-star who didn’t get enough time to shine in high school? A bust waiting to happen with a funky delivery and minimal experience? Something in between? Even against weak competition it’s difficult to hand wave away his 6,000 total yards and 81 touchdowns in his 2019 season together with his physical gifts and play-making outside of the pocket. While his mechanics issues are a concern after tweaking his delivery over the past year, and potentially could lead to him taking longer to acclimate to the college game, I think he’ll get it sorted out eventually. More than anything, I think he needs to find his confidence again and get used to playing the game once more. I’m afraid he’ll start the spring well behind Coan and Pyne and not get enough reps to build said confidence and that could spiral out of control when you’ve enrolled early and you have such a long time without realistically playing in a game. So, I’m hoping they do throw him in the deep end early on and see how he responds. Once he gets comfortable, I think he’ll find a throwing motion that works for him, start utilizing his impressive lower body drive more on passes, and ultimately develop into a very good quarterback.
Tyler: 91
I really hope the quarterback competition is a true open competition where Buchner can get significant reps this spring. He was absolutely dominant as a junior and dominant again in the early spring camp circuit. He had a ton of buzz surrounding him leading up to the Elite 11, to the point where evaluators were wondering if he’d end up being the top-ranked quarterback in the 2021 class. But then he schocked literally everyone with a shaky performance at the Elite 11 and the message boards started to panic. He is an elite athlete at the quarterback position and his potential is sky high. He’ll be arriving on campus this spring having played just one season of football over the last three years. Will he be ready to push for QB1? I’d lean towards no, but he would definitely be the most exciting of the three quarterback options for Notre Dame.
RB Audric Estime
18S Average: 87.0
Brendan: 87
Estime is a full-grown man already and he runs like it. He was named NJ Player of the Year after running over, through, and around everyone he faced; he had 1,857 rush yards (9.8 per carry) and 22 TDs in just 8 games. He’s a power back with some good wiggle, he’s a solid pass blocker, and he’s a credible receiving threat too (13.2 yards per and 2 TDs on 14 catches). His long speed is very good but not elite, which might limit his ceiling a bit. Still, he’s a very well-rounded back and I think he’ll contribute early and often.
Eric: 87
Pleasantly surprised by his speed and agility at his weight. He has a nice burst and fluid, compact running-style. The way he runs reminds me of a slimmer Ron Dayne. Shows good patience with his blocks. His cutting ability is a little slow and labored. Weirdly more of a speed back which I wasn’t expecting. I think he has terrific instincts and should be a very good college back.
Tyler: 87
Man, this kid is yoked. He’s clearly a hard worker in the weight room, because his body is college-ready today. At 6’1″/215, I was expecting him to be a pure power back but his athleticism is really impressive for his size with speed that would probably surprise you. Would not be surprised to see him find a niche role early in the Irish offense.
RB Logan Diggs
18S Average: 88.7
Brendan: 91
I think Diggs is going to surprise some people when he gets on the field. He was just named the top offensive player on the Louisiana 5A All-State team (5A is the Bayou State’s biggest classification). He put up really good numbers on a team with a suspect offensive line, dragging them to the prep school playoffs – where he dropped 248 yards on eventual state champ Catholic-Baton Rouge in the quarters. This kid can flat out play ball. He shows good speed, outstanding moves in space, toughness between the tackles, and a ferocious mentality in blocking and finishing runs. I love the way he plays and I think he can be a frontline guy down the road.
Eric: 88
I’m not going to say total package because Diggs doesn’t look insanely fast nor is he bringing 5-star size to the table. But, he’s super well-rounded. He has a nice burst and reads his blocks well. He loves to juke when it’s necessary and utilizes it at a high level. He can also get the corner on defenders. I like his toughness a lot and he seems to relish blocking and being physical. I’m excited to see how athletic he is once he’s at Notre Dame. I think he’s good enough to be getting a lot of carries as a redshirt freshman.
Tyler: 87
Diggs’ senior highlights are really fun to watch. He has a nice blend of burst, physicality, and wiggle. A couple of his juke move clips even reminded me of Kyren. He’s underrated by most of the recruiting services and a welcome addition to the RB room.
K Josh Bryan
18S Average: 89.0
Brendan: 90
Chris Sailer has him as the #1 placekicker in the country. Good enough for me.
Eric: 89
He’s kicking good.
Tyler: 88
This is my standard “he looks like a good kicker” grade.
QB Ron Powlus III
18S Average: 72.3
Brendan: 72
Maybe Powlus the Younger will channel some of his father’s career (the good parts). I sort of doubt he’ll see meaningful action, though; I think his greatest value to the program will be that, in the soon-to-come era of the penalty-free transfer, he’s one that will stick around. That might not seem super valuable, but remember that Drew Pyne played a couple of snaps against Alabama; if something had happened to him we probably would’ve seen Jay Bramblett under center. So there’s that.
Eric: 73
Big kid who can put some zip on the ball when he’s decisive with his throws. He has kind of a long wind up, though. Powlus can slide around the pocket pretty well but lacks competent mobility. Most think he’s a camp arm and it’s hard to disagree.
Tyler: 72
Ideal size at 6’3″/225. Looks pretty natural throwing the football, but not as mobile as most of the recent Notre Dame quarterbacks. That limits his potential. Maybe he ends up surprising everybody, but it’s hard to imagine a scenario where Powlus sees meaningful snaps barring any transfer/injury emergencies.
Ron Powlus 3: better emergency use QB than the punter! Quite the calling card and made me laugh.
Great writeups as always….Question: have you guys considered looking back at the 2016 and 2017 classes for recent graduates to look back on how you guys did on your projections? Just out of curiosity it would be interesting to put a bow on what happened and maybe which players ended up exceeding expectations, or which ones might have went off the rails. With all the great work and long history and consistency of this series, that would make an interesting book-end.
I went back and looked at mine for 2016:
Tommy Kraemer 96 – One of the highest grades I’ve handed out. Didn’t live up to it.
Khalid Kareem 92 – About right?
Javon McKinley 92 – Nowhere close but at least something came in 2020.
Devin Studstill 92 – It was good for about 5 games.
Parker Boudreaux 92 – Remind me to never do this for short linemen ever again.
Liam Eichenberg 90 – Definitely outperformed this one.
Julian Love 90 – We all should’ve been even higher with this grade.
Troy Pride 90 – Didn’t quite get here, IMO.
Chase Claypool 89 – His final year pushed him past this grade.
Daelin Hayes 89 – More of a 86 or 87 for his career.
Julian Okwara 88 – This was a bit too low.
Jamir Jones 87 – One decent season but not a 87 grade career.
Tony Jones 86 – This feels about right.
Ian Book 86 – Pushed well past this grade.
Jalen Elliott 86 – About spot on.
Donte Vaughn 84 – Didn’t quite get here.
Ade Ogundeji 83 – Ended up several points higher.
Spencer Perry 83 – Flamed out.
Kevin Stepherson 81 – This WR class should’ve been sooo good.
Jon Jones 80 – Never made an impact.
Deon McIntosh 78 – Decent back up before leaving school.
D.J. Morgan 77 – Probably in the top 3 of guys I knew wouldn’t do much.
Nice one. All in all, really accurate considering how much growth happens from age 17/18- 22/23. Always a few surprises, and sometimes injuries that can’t be predicted pop up and derail careers, but not a bad projection.
Also, Boudreaux just signed with professional wrestling (he looks a lot like Brock Lesnar), so really he might end up having a more visible career than many of these guys.
On Twitter this week, Pete Sampson mentioned a former coach called Stepherson the 2nd best player after Nelson and Chris Finke echoed the idea. He has to be the biggest “what if” of BK’s tenure.
Yeah, I saw that. Pretty wild.
Not too shabby. Good number of these guys probably ended up +/- 3 points from where you graded them. Interesting bc I tend to view you as a bit more critical on evaluations, and yet the biggest misses were actually on the high side.
Re: Morgan, anyone else immediately come to mind as “knew wouldn’t do much”?
Off the top of my head I would say Pete Mokwuah, Jhonny Williams from way back. Wardlow from more recently. I feel like we’ve taken a lot of flyers on DL.
Then you have basically every Indiana kid that wasn’t an obvious stud: John Turner, Brandon Tiassum, Paul Moala (wrong on that one), and I’m assuming JoJo and RP3 from this year.
Fun fact: RP3 is ranked 300+ spots lower than John Shannon and Tyler Newsome were.
I don’t think it’s much of a stretch to apply that tag to Powlus, but it’s presumptuous with Johnson. For one thing, ND already had a pretty full group of DBs prior to his commitment — this was nothing like the scramble for bodies we saw a year ago. Further, Freeman obviously liked him a lot when still at UC and pursued him heavily, and he’s done wonders with other kids of a somewhat similar profile.
Beyond that, ND under Kelly has never been a program that took commitments from top local kids just to stay in good graces (or because they were too lazy to leave St. Joe’s County to recruit, like other coaches on campus). I think the fact that Moala appears to belong where several prior Indiana kids didn’t is less a coincidence than an indicator that BK and staff have improved their scouting chops and hit rate in recent years.
Maybe on JoJo. There definitely haven’t been as many IN whiffs of late. Kiser is also one I could have listed there as probably proving my expectations wrong.
But JoJo’s the second lowest ranked kid in the class which also has 3 higher ranked CBs. This year is particularly weird for recruiting rankings, so everything could be way off. But I personally have absolutely no expectations for him. Sounds like he’s fast at least, that can always get someone some PT.
We started using the grading system for the 2012 class, so I’ve gone back and checked each cycle and my sub-80 grades:
2021
OL Pat Coogan 78
DE Jason Onye 76
DE Devin Auipua 76
2020
DE Alex Ehrensberger 76
QB Drew Pyne 79
2019
DT Howard Cross 78
LB Jack Kiser 76
2018
WR Micah Jones 79
DT Ja’Mion Franklin 79
LB Paul Moala 78
2017
OL Dillon Gibbons 78
DE Jonathan MacCollister 76
DE Kofi Wardlow 78
2016
RB Deon McIntosh 78
LB D.J. Morgan 77
2015
DT Brandon Tiassum 78
S Nicco Fertitta 77
2014
No one, Pete Mokwuah got a 85 average from us!
2013
TE Jacob Matuska 78
*Jaylon Smith 98 is my highest grade ever (I think)
2012
S John Turner 75
I recall us being really apprehensive to give out anything below an 80 grade but we slowly opened up the can more. At least I have!
13 out of 19 for me on defense.
Kiser and Cross have the potential to make my grades look terrrrrible.
Why so low on Cross? He was a low 4 / high 3 star,
Here’s my blurb on Cross:
I think he’s definitely raised his ceiling a little higher than I believed (20 tackles, 11 solo tackles, 1 QB hurry in 15 career games) but I’m not sure he’s a future starter or someone who will be entrenched in the 2-deep. It’s tough for guys who are under 6’1″ to be real great, IMO. If I had to do his grade over again with hindsight maybe an 82?
Makes sense. Thanks.
Buchner’s delivery is a bit odd. I would say, the difference between him and Jurkovec is, Buchner’s accuracy is nowhere near the issue Jurkovec had. On many of his highlight film passes his throws are into tight windows.
I have to agree that Estime’s cutting ability looks a little labored especially when he’s making his 4th and 5th cuts on a run.
Can’t wait to see how Kelly ruins Buchner.
Anybody have any insight as to what went wrong with Buchner at the Elite 11? Was it crumbling under pressure, throwing motion, or…….?
Did Bama, OSU, Clemson, or Georgia offer him?
loved the retrospective look you took at your previous recruit ratings, Eric. Very interesting.
I think Michigan was the early competition for Buchner. He’s listed as having 16 offers but he committed very early to ND. Alabama, Arizona, Arizona State, Georgia, Nebraska, Oregon, USC, were some others recruiting him.
He has a slinging type throwing motion and was working on it pre Elite 11, I believe. He had some accuracy issues at the camp. I think he might just stick with his normal delivery. Accuracy and arm strength are not a problem so why change? Rees has said he’s more concerned that he works on things like footwork and base and continue to improve those areas, which will enhance his consistency. I don’t think ND will mess with his motion unless accuracy issues arise.
Thanks Tindma. That makes sense
Buchner committed to Michigan for lacrosse in eighth grade, which is a pretty normal time to commit for lacrosse. He backed off that when he blew up as a football recruit. Besides ND and Michigan, he visited Oregon and Stanford. Alabama was also recruiting him seriously; they ended up signing dual-threat Jalen Milroe (#81 overall, 11 spots lower than Buchner).
Agreed on the comments about Buchner’s mechanics. I’m super fuzzy on it but I think I read something a while back on him talking about stepping back on the changes to his throwing motion. I’m sure Rees is working on everything with him already in some capacity. Yay, early enrollment!
After Buchner’s junior year he started working with Taylor Kelly (former ASU QB) and the 3DQB group that tons of big stars attend regularly.
The story goes that Buchner had a really short, quick delivery and for some reason Kelly had him changing to a more looping, side-arm type of delivery. And it has not worked well. I think there was a camp (or two) setting where Buchner was throwing post-Elite 11 and it was still an issue.
From interviews I’ve seen, Buchner claims the motion isn’t different it’s just that he has some issues with his footwork and connecting to his lower body. That’s mildly concerning in that it does seem they made substantial tweaks and may not go back to his old throwing motion and don’t want to recognize the apparent failure.
Who knows, though. No one has seen him throw in many months now. We’ll find out eventually.
I really wish that all of these so-called “QB gurus” — who always seem to have ideas that run completely counter to their actual coaches — would be swallowed up in a giant crater in the earth, never to be seen again.