[fade in to gentle nature sounds] As the late summer sun sloughs off the demi-gloom robes of twilight, a landscape draws into view that is markedly different than the one the same heavenly traveler left us with not so long ago. The once-imposing Matterhorns that obstructed the precious natural resources the pride must hoard to compete with others on the plains have shrunk to gentle rolling hills, seemingly overnight. The pride itself, previously unfailingly efficient but occasionally mechanical, is possessed of a new energy, each member surrounded by the ethereal glow of élan actualized. Around and amidst this community stalks one with a regal bearing that is indeed worthy of the name Panthera leo, who stops here and there in his constituency to remind all that they are part of a greater whole. This is no simple feline, this group no common tribe.

Yes, there can be no doubt remaining – it is the dawn of a new era on this Indianan Serengeti. THE FREEMAN ERA.

[roll opening credits]

(Yeah, I watched a lot of Marty Stouffer and David Attenborough when I was a kid – so what?)

We’ve all hashed and re-hashed the story of Brian Kelly’s exit from the Notre Dame program and Marcus Freeman’s anointment as his successor, both here and elsewhere. There’s not anything to say about it all now that hasn’t been said a hundred times already, so we’ll skip all of that. All we’ll say is that it’s wonderful to finally be at the true starting line for this new era in Irish football. We’re not quite sure where it will go but we’re excited to find out.

Judging from your survey responses, it seems that a decent number of you are also energized but, as is appropriate in any regime change, there’s some healthy skepticism mixed in. Without further ado then, let’s get to it.

As with last year, note that percentages are rounded to the nearest integer so responses to an individual question won’t always add up to 100%. Also, apologies for the lack of gifs – I usually have a lot of fun putting a theme together but I just didn’t have time this year. Eric will likely include that on my performance review but such is life.

Big Picture Stuff

What will Notre Dame’s 2022 regular season record be?

  • 12-0 – 4%
  • 11-1 – 7%
  • 10-2 – 39%
  • 9-3 – 43%
  • 8-4 or worse – 7%

QUICK MATH! About 4 out of 5 of you expect the Irish to go 10-2 or 9-3 this season, which given all the coaching turnover and the schedule is very fair indeed. Even I, the eternal optimist, voted for 10-2; in fact 81% of the staff voted for 10-2 or 9-3 as well, so we all are very much in step with you here. If the lads somehow get past Ohio State we all may recalibrate up one or two wins, I would imagine, but as it stands today I think 10-2 would be an unqualified success for Freeman’s first effort.

What’s your biggest concern heading into the season?

  • Receiver depth: 48%
  • Freeman’s game management skills: 24%
  • Quarterback play: 16%
  • Kicking game: 4%
  • Schedule: 2%
  • Offensive scheme: 2%
  • Less than 1%:
    • Running back depth
    • Secondary depth
    • Outscoring Ohio State
    • Getting Ohio State tickets
    • The effect of NIL on recruiting

Receiver depth is absolutely the biggest question mark heading into the year, and it shows in the survey results for you and us – 75% of the staff pegged that as the top concern with another 19% selecting quarterback play. I fear that particular issue coming home to roost not immediately but in the second half of the season, when the grind starts to claim some joints and muscles for its own.

Interestingly, nobody in either the reader or the staff survey picked offensive line play or all the new staff additions working together effectively on gameday. I didn’t see either as a major concern – in fact I think the ceiling for this offensive line is somewhere between very good and elite – but I’m a bit surprised to see nobody concerned about either. Excelsior!

Will Notre Dame-Clemson on Nov. 5th be a de facto playoff elimination game?

  • Yes – 48%
  • No – 52%

Either team could likely afford one loss and still stay in contention given the rest of their schedules (Clemson’s is garbage but they do have the ACC championship game to help them out). If either comes into this game with one loss already on the ledger, though, the loser is all but assured to be out of the final four. The staff was more bullish that this would be early playoff theater, with 69% (nice) saying yes.

Superlatives

Who will be Notre Dame’s offensive MVP?

  • Michael Mayer – 59%
  • Tyler Buchner – 22%
  • Offensive line – 11%
  • Lorenzo Styles – 7%
  • Chris Tyree – 1%

God bless you, you other brave soul who will brook no Chris Tyree erasure… To 59% of you, sure, take the All-American record setting walking mismatch, be cowards. The rest of us are creatures who dare to dream the impossible. Um… That said, 56% of the staff also took Mayer (including me), 25% said Buchner, and 19% said the offensive line.

Who will be Notre Dame’s defensive MVP?

  • Isaiah Foskey – 72%
  • Brandon Joseph – 13%
  • Marist Liufau – 8%
  • Jayson Ademilola – 4%
  • Less than 1%:
    • Cam Hart
    • Jack Kiser
    • JD Bertrand
    • Rylie Mills

What a difference a year makes for expectations… Last year Isaiah Foskey garnered a paltry 3% of the reader vote in this category, this year he’s the prohibitive favorite. The staff showed similar confidence in Foskey (69%) but none in Joseph (0%), with Liufau (25%) and Ademilola (6%) rounding out their choices.

Which unit will provide the play of the year?

  • Offense – 38%
  • Defense – 54%
  • Special Teams – 8%

This was a rare occasion where the staff vote was very different, with 56% of us choosing the offense. The defense has fewer question marks than the offense, for sure, but the offense also has a few guys with elite playmaking ability. Notably, the Rigneys must have abstained this year because there were no staff votes for special teams.

Who will lead the team in touchdowns from scrimmage?

  • Michael Mayer – 57%
  • Chris Tyree – 8%
  • The field – 35%

You collectively think so little of Tyree… Mayer is a solid choice, but he set the program record for touchdowns by a tight end last year with seven. The lowest leader’s number since 2009, as far back as cfbstats.com goes, is Theo Riddick’s seven in the grind-it-out 2012 offense; the next lowest is Equanimeous St. Brown’s nine in the 2016 season that never happened. Any moderately productive recent offense has been led by someone with 13 or more scores, which is a big jump for Mayer to make. Over the last several years, the primary ground threat has been the strongest bet to lead this category, and my guess is that will hold again this year. It might by Tyree, it might be Buchner, it might be Estime, we’ll see. But I’d be a little surprised if it’s a receiver.

The staff was a little more evenly distributed, with 44% taking Mayer, 31% taking Tyree, and 25% taking the field.

Who will lead the team in receiving yards?

  • Lorenzo Styles – 56%
  • Michael Mayer – 34%
  • The field – 10%

Who will lead the team in receptions?

  • Michael Mayer – 86%
  • The field – 14%

Michael Mayer for the reception lead feels like an absolute gimme, as displayed even more emphatically in the staff vote – we were unanimous in selecting Mayer here. Yards is a bit fuzzier but Styles should have a considerably better average target depth than Mayer and has elite after-the-catch ability. This one should be a fun race to track.

Who will lead the team in sacks?

  • Isaiah Foskey – 76%
  • The field – 24%

The staff vote was 75%/25% in Foskey’s favor as well. This is perhaps the most lopsided Player X vs. the field vote we’ve had in this category, and for good reason; Foskey sits 5.5 sacks off the program record, and to be honest it wouldn’t be all surprising to see him get the mark before September is out.

Who will lead the team in interceptions?

  • Brandon Joseph – 48%
  • Cam Hart – 20%
  • The field – 32%

This is usually a tough category to handicap, and 2022 is no different from past years. Joseph has a ballhawk reputation and showed some elite flashes in spring and fall camp, according to reports. Hart had a nose for the ball last year and should get some opportunities this year. The staff had a little more faith in Hart, voting 37% for him, 37% for Joseph, and 26% for the field.

Who will be the most impactful true freshman?

  • WR Tobias Merriweather – 81%
  • CB Jaden Mickey – 9%
  • TE Eli Raridon – 4%
  • LB Junior Tuihalamaka – 3%
  • RB Gi’Bran Payne – 2%
  • The field – 1%

94% of the staff took Merriweather and the remaining 6% took Mickey. Given the depth chart at each position, well, ready or not guys, here we come… One quick note on the field as well – summer enrollee Ben Morrison drew rave reviews at cornerback also and has already worked his way into the two-deep. He’s a solid dark horse candidate.

Over/Under

4.5 wins in first 6 games (@ Ohio State, vs. Marshall, vs. Cal, @ North Carolina, bye, vs. BYU [neutral site], vs. Stanford)

  • Readers: 77% over, 23% under
  • Staff: 94% over, 6% under

4.5 wins in final 6 games (vs. UNLV, @ Syracuse, vs. Clemson, vs. Navy [neutral site], vs. Boston College, @ USC)

  • Readers: 61% over, 39% under
  • Staff: 69% over, 31% under

The general confidence in the first half of the season is interesting given the presence of a road game with Ohio State and a neutral site game with a BYU team that should be pretty good. I think BYU has a big-time potential as a sneaky annoying game, in fact, and I’m glad the bye come before them so the lads can mentally reset for it.

+190 point differential (last year: +202; average under OC Tommy Rees: +183.5)

  • Readers: 41% over, 59% under
  • Staff: 38% over, 62% under

An interesting vote here; I actually suspect that this mark may be too low, given how the schedule shakes out and the 10-2 record that I’m expecting. I think any losses are likely to be close and there are a few opponents who could lead to big positive margins. But we’ll see!

32.5 30+ yard scrimmage plays (last year: 33; avg under OCTR: 28)

  • Readers: 54% over, 46% under
  • Staff: 56% over, 44% under

33% third down conversion defense (last year: 32.24%, 10th in FBS)

  • Readers: 50% over, 50% under
  • Staff: 31% over, 69% under

So, this is an interesting one, dear readers. There are some of you who think we’ll have a more explosive offense and a better defense AND still end up with a point differential below the betting line. There are ways to explain that, but it’s an interring combo of beliefs.

3,000 yards total offense by Tyler Buchner

  • Readers: 62% over, 38% ynder
  • Staff: 42% over, 58% under

This is another line that I think might be sneaky easy to hit, because it sounds like a big number at first blush but in reality it isn’t that big. Only twice since 2009 have the Irish been led by a quarterback with under 2,500 passing yards in the season – Brandon Wimbush in 2017 (1,870) and Everett Golson in 2012 (2,405). So that mark feels fairly reasonable. In that 2017 season Wimbush ran for almost 900 yards; I doubt that type of utilization is on the table (and Buchner doesn’t have the tools Wimbush did as a runner. Ian Book, on the other hand, ran for about 500 yards in each of 2019 and 2020 and I think that’s a sensible target for Buchner.

The short version is that he wouldn’t have to run too much or pass an exorbitant amount to hit the over. And if he does hit that would be very good news indeed.

2.5 consensus All-Americans for Notre Dame (first or second team)

  • Readers: 39% over, 61% under
  • Staff: 31% over, 69% under

Michael Mayer (duh), Brandon Joseph, Jarrett Patterson, and Isaiah Foskey have all garnered preseason All-America attention. If all four make the postseason lists too, we’ll likely have had a very good year… Worth noting here Joseph was a consensus All-American for Northwestern in 2020. Recapture that magic, son.

3.5 starting offensive line combinations

  • Readers: 25% over, 75% under
  • Staff: 25% over, 75% under

Clearly I should’ve set this line higher… I didn’t go back and check but last year I think it got up to 18 combos? Pretty sure. If everyone stays healthy I like the odds of it being one combo, but we already have some shaky omens there with Patterson entering the Ohio State game questionable. Let’s hope.

19.5 times the Irish will go for it in a reasonable field goal situation because of placekicking concerns

  • Readers: 30% over, 70% under
  • Staff: 38% over, 62% under

The thinking with this line was that this could happen 1.5 times per game – despite the voting here that seems fairly reasonable. Arkansas State transfer Blake Grupe won the job pretty clearly, per reports, although there are some questions about his range. There are no questions about sophomore Josh Bryan’s range but there are some about consistency. How Freeman and new special teams coach Brian Mason manage this element of the game will be very interesting.

39.5 yards for the Notre Dame punt that is taken closest to the opponent’s end zone (i.e. the most conservative no-go decision)

  • Readers: 68% over, 32% under
  • Staff: 75% over, 25% under

The wording on this one was a little tricky, so just to be clear: choosing the under would mean that the Irish will attempt at least one punt from inside the opponent’s 40 yard line. Many defensive-minded rookie head coaches lean towards conservative decisions, so this could be a bit of a litmus test for how much Freeman follows that trend. I took the over as, clearly, most others did; I have a feeling that Freeman will be a fairly aggressive strategist.

7.5 minutes of game time before your significant other says something that implies they would leave you for Marcus

  • Readers: 41% over, 59% under
  • Staff: 25% over, 75% under

Oh, you sweet misguided overly optimistic children.

2.5 Al Golden-related puns per game

  • Readers: 59% over, 41% under
  • Staff: 56% over, 44% under

If Mike Tirico was still in the booth (pour one out) for half the season, I’d be more confident in the concomitant restraint to result in this hitting the under. With booth rookie Jac Collinsworth and longtime NFLer Jason Garrett, who exudes all the vibrancy of a kitchen table, I think the over may be inevitable.

$65M rumored annual value of an independent Notre Dame’s new media contract

  • Readers: 88% over, 12% under
  • Staff: 94% over, 6% under

I don’t know, folks – since we put out the survey there have been some rumors floating about what an NBC renewal would be worth, and the number that keeps coming up is $60M. At the same time, if the Big Ten really can swing a deal that nets its members around $100M each (which is no sure thing itself), the Notre Dame rights are definitely worth more than $60M. At this point I think anything involving college football and media rights is anyone’s guess.

Prop Bets

By the end of the calendar year, Notre Dame will announce plans to join a conference

  • True: Readers 5%, staff 4%
  • False: Readers 95%, staff 96%

Well then… The momentum towards a Super Power 2 of the Big Ten and SEC has cooled somewhat as the summer has waned, which I think is the lever that would force Notre Dame into a crossroads decision. It’s out there though, and I don’t think it’s going away.

High performance for passing yards in a Notre Dame game will be set by…

  • CJ Stroud: Readers 58%, staff 50%
  • The field: Readers 42%, staff 50%

You never know with this one given the Irish’s propensity to surrender career days to overly motivate quarterbacks, but at the same time the first one they’ll face feels like a good bet to be the best one. In fact Stroud is the heavy preseason Heisman favorite at +200, with Alabama QB Bryce Young at +350, new USC QB Caleb Williams at +700, and the rest of the field at +2000 or higher. Um, good luck guys.

Longest play from scrimmage for Notre Dame will come from…

  • Lorenzo Styles: Readers 8%, staff 13%
  • The field: Readers 92%, staff 87%

Man, I set some bad lines this year… I’m very surprised that this vote was so lopsided – Styles is a gamebreaker who’s just getting started. He’s quietly established himself as one of the fastest guys on the team and will benefit from teams giving attention to Mayer. I don’t think it’s a lock by any means – Tyree, Merriweather, Braden Lenzy, etc. could all break one off – but I didn’t expect so little interest in Styles here.

Longest return play for Notre Dame will come from…

  • Chris Tyree: Readers 70%, staff 44%
  • The field: Readers 30%, staff 56%

This is the widest gap between your expectations and ours. Tyree is still the lead guy on kick returns, while the punt return unit is up in the air – the depth chart for game 1 shows Brandon Joseph as the primary returner but I’m not sure what to make of that. I tend to think Tyree is a good bet here for a number of reasons, but who knows.

Notre Dame will have a top 20 SP+ offense and defense (last year: 20th offense, 13th defense).

  • True: Readers 51%, staff 56%
  • False: Readers 49%, staff 44%

The Irish have actually landed in the top 20 in both categories fairly regularly since 2017 – the one time they didn’t was 2019, when they were 20th in offense and 22nd in defense. Yes, even last year, with as rough as the offense was for the first part of the season. So this is really more of a status quo question than an achievement question.

Notre Dame’s highest ranked end-of-season opponent  per the playoff committee (current preseason AP rankings noted) will be…

  • Ohio State: Readers 96%, staff 100%
  • Clemson: Readers 4%, staff 0%
  • The field: Readers 0%, staff 0%

Little doubt about who the class of the schedule is. Buckle up, buttercups.

Notre Dame’s highest-ranked end-of-season win (not counting a potential bowl game) will be…

  • Clemson: Readers 30%, staff 25%
  • The field: Readers 70%, staff 75%

I’m not sure if this means most of us don’t think the Irish will get past Clemson, or if most of us think another opponent will end up higher ranked than Clemson. I don’t think the second position is outrageous – they had some very shaky moments last year and Dabo has made some staff moves that, charitably speaking, are odd. Either way, very interesting to see what way reality  gooses to hit this line.

Wrapping Up

I appreciate what Brian Kelly did to drag the program out of the ditch that Bob Weisingham drove it into. I also think this fresh start is a very good thing for the program and, in hindsight, perhaps more sorely needed than many of us realized. Marcus Freeman is on paper everything you could possibly want in a Notre Dame coach. He’s young, he’s energetic, he’s relatable, he’s good looking, he’s cool (GQ just ran a feature on him, if you’re inclined to question that), he’s enamored of the school’s mission and uniqueness, and he’s a mix of two minorities that are underrepresented and unrepresented in the head coaching ranks.

But can he win games, and can he win them quickly? That’s the looming question at the onset of this new era. Tonight is just one game with all the standard Crash Davis lines attached to it, but a win would go a long way towards answering that question affirmatively. A loss probably doesn’t mean much in real terms but could mean a lot emotionally. It’s a nerve-wracking point in the program’s trajectory for everyone from Freeman himself right down to you and me on our couches tonight. And we wouldn’t trade it for the world.

What time is it?

GAME TIME.

Let’s go.