As the late great Yogi Berra said, it’s getting late early out there. There are 164 prospects in the 2023 class with a known Notre Dame offer; 23 are committed to Notre Dame and a whopping 119 are committed to other schools, leaving just 22 uncommitted prospects still on the board in mid November. The impact of the early signing period continues to be felt, for better or worse. Since our last update in September there have been many visits by many prospects but only a moderate level of movement, in large part because of how many prospects were already committed back then too. Still, some big names and/or big developments have happened since then and it’s worth revisiting the board now.
Before we get too much father, we’d like to diverge onto a little primrose path of schadenfreude that we think you’ll all enjoy immensely. That path takes you from wherever you are right now to a bird’s eye view of College Station, where a tire fire rages around Jimbo Fisher and the Texas A&M program. You may remember their much ballyhooed 2022 recruiting class, the BEST CLASS EVER; it boasted eight five stars and an additional ten top 100 players, meaning very nearly one in every five top 100 players signed with the Aggies. Many were from well outside their traditional recruiting footprint, perhaps none more notably so than five-star and ’23 reclassifier Lebbeus Overton out of Marietta, GA and top 50 edge rusher Enai White out of Philadelphia. There was no mystery about how they signed such an absurd amount of talent – they didn’t even really try to pretend that it was anything other than NIL funds.
Fast forward to the fall, and, shockingly, things are not going swimmingly. The Aggies are 3-7 and, with UMass and #7 LSU on tap, staring 4-8 squarely in the face in year five of Jimbo’s $9M per year tenure. There were rumors months ago of promised NIL funds not materializing. There are rumors now of unrest among many of those uber-talented ’22 signees because they’re not playing as the season goes up in flames. Five of those top 100 players are either definitely or very probably going to be somewhere else next year due to disciplinary issues. Three more five stars are rumored to be heavily considering transferring because of what a train wreck the program is. Aggie fans have resigned themselves to the abyss due to the size of Jimbo’s fully-guaranteed buyout – they would have to wait three more years for it to be less than Guz Malzahn’s buyout at Auburn, which is the largest buyout ever paid.
Buying kids with NIL “funds” isn’t always everything it’s cracked up to be. Prospects and fans would both do well to remember that.
The Board
A reminder on how we do this – we’ll include the entire big board table but only review prospects who are above “Cold” status and who have had actual developments of late. Speaking of which, the temperature scale:
- Hot means the prospect is on commit watch.
- Warm means the prospect has Notre Dame in a small final group and/or is a possible Irish lean.
- Mild/Mild+ means the prospect is in regular contact with the staff and has visited or has firm visit plans.
- Cool means the prospect has some level of contact with the staff and/or vague visit plans; also the default temperature for most new offers.
- Cold is a known (or reasonably safely assumed) lack of contact with the staff and/or an elimination.
Also, on the 247 Composite scores: Roughly speaking above .9830 is a five star, above .9500 is a top 100 prospect, above .9200 is a top 200 prospect, and above .8900 is a four star. Those slide around a little within a cycle and from one cycle to the next, but they’re pretty solid ballpark numbers.
Remember that of course we don’t have perfect information on all prospects – we don’t know for sure whether a prospect has or hasn’t talked to the staff outside of what’s reported elsewhere. We don’t know for sure how high prospects are on the staff’s board or on other staffs’ boards. We try to make educated guesses at all of it, but we don’t know.
| Position | Name | 247C | Temp |
| IOL | Christopher Terek | 0.8832 | Mild+ |
| OT | Samson Okunlola | 0.9901 | Cold |
| QB | Kenny Minchey | 0.9123 | Hot |
| TE | Duce Robinson | 0.9883 | Cold |
| WR | Taeshaun Lyons | 0.9103 | Cold |
| WR | Malik Elzy | 0.9045 | Cold |
| WR | Brandyn Hillman | 0.8900 | Warm |
| WR | Khalil Barnes | 0.8622 | Warm |
| WR | Kaleb Smith | 0.8544 | Warm |
| CB | Javien Toviano | 0.9810 | Cold |
| CB | Jyaire Hill | 0.9231 | Cold |
| CB | Ethan Nation | 0.9061 | Cold |
| DL | Markis Deal | 0.9477 | Cold |
| DL | Ashton Sanders | 0.8719 | Cold |
| EDGE | Keon Keeley | 0.9960 | Cool |
| EDGE | Samuel M’Pemba | 0.9854 | Cold |
| EDGE | Matayo Uiagalelei | 0.9847 | Cold |
| EDGE | Dylan Gooden | 0.9103 | Cold |
| LB | Nyckoles Harbor | 0.9944 | Cold |
| LB | Anthony Hill | 0.9901 | Cold |
| S | Isaac Smith | 0.9329 | Cold |
| S | Mikal Harrison-Pilot | 0.9301 | Cold |
| S | Rahmir Stewart | 0.8900 | Cold |
New to the Board
- LB Anthony Hill, 0.9901, decommitted from Texas A&M (lol)
- S Antione Jackson, 0.9159, reclassified from 2024
- QB Kenny Minchey (pictured), 0.9123, decommitted from Pitt
- WR Malik Elzy, 0.9045, decommitted from Cincinatti
- ATH Brandyn Hillman, 0.8900, new offer
- IOL Christopher Terek, 0.8832, Wisconsin commit, new offer
- RB Kyron Jones, 0.8747, new offer
- WR Khalil Barnes, 0.8622, new offer
- WR Kaleb Smith, 0.8544, new offer, decommitted from Texas Tech
- QB Roch Cholowsky, 0.0000, new offer
Off the Board
- DL David Hicks, 0.9953, Texas A&M
- WR Hykeem Williams, 0.9869, Florida State
- WR Jalen Hale, 0.9749, Alabama
- RB Jeremiyah Love, 0.9691, Notre Dame
- EDGE Colton Vasek, 0.9451, Texas
- DL Hunter Osborne, 0.9441, Alabama
- WR Tyler Williams, 0.9435, Georgia
- IOL TJ Shanahan, 0.9423, Texas A&M
- S Braxton Myers, 0.9204, Ole Miss (flipped from USC)
- S Antione Jackson, 0.9159, Miami
- OT Elijah Paige, 0.8965, USC (flipped from Notre Dame)
- IOL Vysen Lang, 0.8767, Tennessee
- RB Kyron Jones, 0.8747, NC State
- QB Roch Cholowsky, 0.0000, UCLA (baseball)
Quarterback
Commits: None
Slots: 1
This looked a little messy for a bit, as Notre Dame tried and failed to get UCLA commit Luke Duncan to visit without an offer (which is why he’s not on the board) and offered UCLA baseball commit Roch Cholowsky but couldn’t quite get him to visit for the Clemson game either. There were also ultimately bootless rumors of continuing conversations with previous offer and current Kansas State commit Avery Johnson and never-offered Oregon State commit Aidan Chiles.
A major development came out of left field earlier this week though when Kenny Minchey, who the Irish offered some time ago but reportedly was very solid with Pitt, backed off his commitment. Minchey will visit for the Boston College game this weekend, which makes the dots very easy to connect indeed.
Running Back
Commits: Jeremiyah Love, 0.9691, #67 overall/#3 position; Dylan Edwards, 0.9237, #201 overall/#10 position; Jayden Limar, 0.8975, #349 overall/#22 position
Slots: 2-3
Top 100 prospect Jeremiyah Love finally jumped on board with Notre Dame after an extended flirtation with Texas A&M. Love is the cherry on top of an excellent running back class, joining the blazing fast Dylan Edwards and Kyren quasi-doppelganger Jayden Limar. Limar doesn’t have elite speed but is shifty and tough. Edwards, well, he has elite speed. Love is the best mix of power and speed and has shown it in a very competitive league in St. Louis. All three are plus receivers. Deland McCullough is doing work, man.
Wide Receiver
Commits: Braylon James, 0.9483, #116 overall/#15 position; Jaiden Greathouse, 0.9455, #124 overall/#17 position; Rico Flores, 0.9202, #220 overall/#27 position
Slots: 4-5
We downgraded Taeshuan Lyons to “Cold” as it seems each side has moved on from each other since his official visit for the Cal game. His primary remaining suitors seem to be Miami, Texas A&M, and Washington…
We’re not entirely sure where to put new offers Brandyn Hillman and Khalil Barnes, but here is as good a place as any. Hillman could end up at receiver, running back, safety, linebacker, or even quarterback. He visited for the Stanford game (whoops) and visited Virginia Tech and Kentucky over the last couple of weeks. He has exploded since late September and as a result could take visits to other late suitors at some point, but his announced commitment date of December 7th is coming up soon. We like the Irish here…
Barnes just released a top three of Notre Dame, Clemson, and Oklahoma and a decision date of December 16th. He visited Notre Dame for the Clemson game (not whoops!) and will visit Clemson in a couple of weeks for the South Carolina game. He has no visit set yet for Oklahoma but could get there before deciding. He’s less fuzzy than Hillman in that he’s likely to land either at receiver or defensive back, and the Notre Dame staff has been recruiting him specifically at receiver. Probably a coin flip between Clemson and Notre Dame…
Kaleb Smith decommitted from Texas Tech and literally within minutes tweeted his Notre Dame offer, then set up a visit for the Clemson game. So, read into that what you will… The interesting here is how numbers will work out. We think that the staff would take all three of Hillman, Barnes, and Smith if they want in, but even with positional flexibility for two of them it’s hard to figure out how it all works.
Tight End
Commits: Cooper Flanagan, 0.9143, #239 overall/#13 position
Slots: 1
Offensive Line
Commits: OT Charles Jagusah, 0.9752, #55/#5; OT Sullivan Absher, 0.9232, #191 overall/#19 position; Elijah Paige, 0.8985, #335 overall/#29 position; IOL Sam Pendleton, 0.8933, #378 overall/#20 position; IOL Joe Otting, 0.8752, #591 overall/#42 position
Slots: 5
After Elijah Paige flipped to USC Notre Dame offered Wisconsin commit Christopher Terek, who also visited for the Stanford game. We don’t know what to make of this one just yet other than that prying an offensive lineman away from Wisconsin isn’t the easiest task, so we’ll see what happens.
Defensive Line
Commits: DL Brenan Vernon, 0.9475, #118 overall/#17 position; DL Boubacar Traore, 0.9399, #144 overall/#20 position; DL Devan Houstan, 0.9160, #235 overall/#35 position; EDGE Armel Mukam, 0.8781, #594 overall/#52 position
Slots: 4-5
Precious little to report on replacing erstwhile commit Keon Keeley; there were some indications that Notre Dame might be able to get back into it with Chandavian Bradley or Caleb Herring, both Tennessee commits, but the Vols putting together a top ten season basically squashed any momentum that might have existed there…
LSU commit and Indianapolis native Joshua Mickens is possibly somebody to keep an eye on; despite his commitment status he set up an official visit to Ohio State for the Michigan game. It remains to be seen whether the Irish can get in here too, but clearly he hasn’t completely shut his recruitment down. He doesn’t have a Notre Dame offer but that could change if the staff gets the sense he’s interested.
Linebackers
Commits: Drayk Bowen, 0.9571, #91 overall/#7 position; Jaiden Ausberry, 0.9371, #148 overall/#11 position; Preston Zinter, 0..8850, #493 overall/#43 position
Slots: 3
Defensive Backs
Commits: S Peyton Bowen, 0.9860, #25 overall/#2 position; CB Christian Gray, 0.9617, #83 overall/#9 position; CB Micah Bell, 0.9436, #132 overall/#14 position; S Adon Shuler, 0.9054, #293 overall/#29 position; S Ben Minich, 0.9014, #318 overall/#33 position
Slots: 5
Scenario Tracking
High scenario – 5 prospects – 293.34 class score – 0.9232 average:
- QB Kenny Minchey
- IOL Christopher Terek
- WR/ATH Brandyn Hillman
- WR Kaleb Smith
- EDGE Joshua Mickens
Mickens, at #124 overall, is likely the best prospect the Irish have any reasonable chance to flip at the edge position. We feel reasonably confident in landing Minchey, Terek, Hillman, and Smith. Mickens is a total question mark though, and beyond him we couldn’t even guess who might be on the radar at edge rusher other than to say it’d be someone for sure – hence the reduction to just one scenario at this point. Looking at the last few cycles, a class score of 293.34 should be enough to keep Notre Dame in the top five and barring some very unforeseen developments will almost definitely be enough to keep them in the top six.
Have seen a few parallels mentioned around here about Bk first season and marcus first season. YPP differential, the clemson and utah games, and flipping a black qb from the east coast who had great accuracy and runs second. I guess the only thing left to do is flip back the the top DE from florida (well also win at usc).
Overall solid recovery for the class and great job steadying the ship and preserving through the qb recruiting saga. Hold onto bowen and this is definitely a class that moves the program forward, even if it isn’t the quantum leap we may have hoped for in June. I also trust Freeman learned some lessons throughout the year about this, and not just the BK lesson of aim lower and you will have more time to golf
Good stuff as always, Brendan, thank you!
The best story might be that the status of Bowen isn’t much of a story at the moment (let’s hope it stays that way!). For all the talk and consternation, he never decommited officially and signing day is approaching! Might be lucky that A&M has fully derailed and it’s not going great in Oklahoma either.
Speaking of consternation, any issues with Greathouse taking a visit to Texas? Sucks his flight for the Clemson game got cancelled, would hate to see him waver but it seems like it was more just a trip to enjoy the process. Also, shockingly, the TCU/Texas game ending 17-10 is nice, no fireworks from there.
From what I’ve seen there’s nothing to worry about with Greathouse.
I don’t think Texas is a serious threat for Greathouse – I get the sense the visit was as much about him going to see a big game with some friends on his side, and Texas maintaining a positive relationship with an Austin powerhouse program on their side. I do think Texas would take him, but they were recruiting him as a tight end earlier and I don’t get the sense that a late shift to recruiting him as a receiver has gotten any traction.
On Bowen, I’m not sure anyone outside his family feels 100% confident in any knowledge about what he’s going to do, but if I had to lay money on it I would agree that it seems like ND has weathered the storm with him. Just one month to go.
I remember reading an article awhile back about his mother talking about the Bowen brothers and her attitude was basically, “you commit, you are committed”, no backing out. So I’ve taken all his visits as him supporting Eli in the recruiting process. Even with all the smoke, I’ve maintained about a 90% confidence level in him staying with his verbal commitment.
I would like to see Keely reengage with the staff.
What would be the “reasonable” scenario if we didn’t flip Mickens?
It seems like the other teams in the top 6 who are behind us (OSU, LSU, Texas) are likely to each get a (or two) 5 star or at least top 100 player left on the board and so it seems like we are most likely to finish 6th.
But the positive point is that it’ll all be very close among 2 or 3-6 instead of a huge gap somewhere in there. In other words 6 this year will likely be much closer to #2 than #7.
Looking at some closing possibilities for top 100 prospects for OSU/LSU/Texas:
However it ends up going, as you note, we’re going to be no lower than 6th and within moderately raised voice distance of 3rd. Kelly’s top class was the 5th-ranked 2013 group – which the 2022 class has already beaten in class score (289-284).
Great stuff here.
I thought LSU is favored for Ricks right now.
Yea I thought OSU would come away with someone from that group – like you said Wilson is the likely candidate
And Texas seems favored for Hill.
But of course anything can happen. And even with those prospects those schools are likely to be around 294ish where we are likely to be like 291ish (without Mickens). A few points is very close. The question will be how far is this group of schools 3-6 is behind Alabama and Georgia.
I think LSU is in the lead for Ricks but he has visited Florida a *lot*, which gives me pause on penciling him in for the Tigers.
Texas does seem likely for Hill but who knows, maybe they continue their faux-back thing and TCU swoops in on the strength of a playoff run. Crazier things have happened. I should qualify what I said above by saying Texas is somewhat more likely than LSU and OSU to stay behind us, the way I wrote it there it sounds like I’m saying Texas is likely to stay behind us. Not quite what I was going for.
Concern about Edwards? Sounds like he visited KSU instead of ND for the Clemson game.
Also, what happened with Lyons? Sounded like both sides were super high around the time of his visit, then poof. Did he just not like ND? Was he expecting to get a big NIL offer?
It saddens me that both Keeley and Moore are still chatting with midwestern schools that aren’t us.
Keeley appears to be purely NIL-related… and it’s hard to blame him for that. I don’t understand why ND won’t create an NIL fund that promises to match NIL “opportunities” (read: offers) that others make so long as a kid can get into the school. I understand there is something to not just outright buying players a la A&M or Miami, but for people who want to come it is silly that our approach leaves them in a position to make less money going in.
Matching offers seems like an easy solution of the face of it. But to do that, you probably have to have a recruit show you something in writing. If you have NIL contract before you sign your letter of intent… yeah, I think most schools would balk at that, to many things to trip you up with the NCAA, i would think.
Yes, that would certainly be skirting NCAA rules. I’m not saying it’s not done but, it won’t be how ND operates. There are rules and guidelines to follow, even if all don’t.
True. And I can’t imagine a world beyond wish fulfillment where Notre Dame is shifting quickly enough to be the highest bidder for kids across the country. As we’ve seen time and again, anyone who wants the easiest path isn’t likely going to be a fit anyways, whether that’s the days before NIL or now.
That said, you come to Notre Dame and if you’re Hamilton or Mayer level player, those guys make NIL money. A good self-marketer like Foskey surely is doing well. The platform is very large and there are a lot of opportunities available for that “top guy on Notre Dame” niche. But I don’t see that applying to paying a 5-star high school kid before he’s proven anything as a particularly good investment right now.
It seems like Dylan Edwards is pretty well locked in.
Edwards is safe.
I get the sense that Lyons and ND see things differently from each other. I think when Miami and A&M are among the leaders for a kid from Oakland, you can draw your own conclusions.
Keeley may be chatting with OSU but I don’t expect it to go beyond that. Like 98.4% chance he signs with Alabama. Same for Dante and MSU – I think that’s a fever dream from the MSU guys. Oregon offered not just money but Nike jobs for his parents, from what I’ve heard; anyone else would need to match or exceed that.
Wow really, Nike jobs? That’s a nice deal if you can get it!
Oh wow, actually giving family jobs is pretty sweet. Hard to turn that down.
I think the best thing about the Minchey impending likely commitment is thinking about how Narduzzi must have reacted when he found out the news.
You have to wonder with TA&M, if Jimbo let the boosters into the locker room a bit to much? Who is running that team?
The bigger issue is all the transfers out that A&M faces. How do you replace that talent gap. I guess they can bring other transfers in, but now instead of recruiting 20 to 25 players for your 2023 class, you have to get them, you have to recruit another 15 players out of the portal and then evaluations and offers for the 2024 class. This is the kind of craziness that a new head coach faces, having Fisher face it in year 6 is wild. Boosters at A&M have to be crying.
Apparently money doesn’t fix everything.
It makes me happy, especially given that we are playing them in 24/25.
Yeah, it seems like a lot of their elite players from the 2022 class will scatter soon for disciplinary, performance or unhappiness.
As an aside, this whole Jimbo situation seems like a classic sunk cost fallacy. To wit, from Stew Mandel in The Athletic yesterday:
I guess the buyout number is blindingly large, but they pretty much have to pay him regardless. So why pay him for 2 more years to keep coaching and presumably not get anywhere?
From my perspective (which is easy since I’m not shelling out the money) Jimbo is just a sunk cost. Either pay him to keep under-performing, or why not shell out another $10-15 million per year on a new staff? That runs the risk of looking dumb if the new guy can’t get results either, but at this point Jimbo is totally dead in the water so why waste time?
Have to pay him the same amount anyways, just seems like a matter of how much longer they want him in charge to lose 4-7 games per year to lower what is still going to be the biggest buyout ever whenever that number becomes palatable enough to pull the trigger on. But I wouldn’t approach it from the buyout perspective so much as if they can afford the costs of a new regime on top of what they already have to spend on Jimbo (which you would think they could rally and afford with the level of discontent).
Yeah. They are paying Fisher the same amount no matter what. His buyout goes down by essentially his salary each year (from googling “jimbo fisher buyout numbers”). He is essentially guaranteed to get X dollars, irregahdless of how long he is at aTm.
The only money aTm is saving is the salary for a new coach. Might as well spend $2 mil per year on a hot young coach (Mike Elko’s current salary). You can fire him in 3 years and you only pay an extra $6 mil to put out the fire. Hell, they could probably hire Elko himself for $3mil/year.
Considering Jimbo’s ‘good’ years at A&M had Elko as the defensive coordinator, I would prefer for this not to happen until after ’25.
Yea, it seems like even just a good coach (but not elite) could make the program be a lot better real quick with all the talent (even with losing some of that top talent).
The A&M program is run as well as the FSU program was under him. That’s the funny thing – this didn’t just happen, the sloppiness and lack of accountability and phoning it in to pick up his paycheck is exactly what happened in Tallahassee. They make think they’re not getting what they paid for but they’re wrong.
He had a three year stretch at FSU – one with EJ Manuel starting, the next two with Jameis – in which he went 39-3. In his other five years at FSU and five-plus at A&M, he’s gone 71-41. Not bad but certainly not remarkable either.
Interesting. How did he build it up with Jameis? Or is the idea that it was built up beforehand and he carried it on for a few years? I don’t remember the timing of it all.