We were here last year. By the time this year’s National Championship kicks off on Monday there will have been 51 days since the Irish played their last game in Palo Alto. If my guess is correct on the start date, there will be 58 days until spring practice begins in South Bend once the National Championship is complete.
Notre Dame could’ve started and ended the year playing in Hard Rock Stadium. Instead, the Irish opponent that day will be the one playing for a championship inside their own stadium.
College Football Playoff National Championship
Miami (+8.5) vs. Indiana
Hard Rock Stadium
Miami Gardens, FL
Date: Monday, January 19, 2026
Time: 7:30 PM ET
TV: ESPN
This is the last college football game until August 29th when 4 games will open up Week 0, including international games in Ireland (North Carolina vs. TCU) and Brazil (NC State vs. Virginia).
On the ESPN broadcast, Chris Fowler and Kirk Herbstreit will be in the booth with Holly Rowe and Molly McGrath working the sidelines. There will be Megacast coverage with Field Pass hosted by Pat McAfee on ESPN2, Command Center on ESPNU, and the Skycast on ESPNews.
History
These teams have played each other twice in the past, before Miami became Miami and back when Indiana was their historic self. They split games in 1964 and 1966, both played in Miami. The Hoosiers won the first game 28-14 in a season where they finished 2-7. The Canes were pretty solid in 1966 (Indiana finished 1-8-1) and won 14-7 on their way to a Liberty Bowl victory and #9 finish in the AP Poll.
Just a couple years ago, this matchup in the title game would’ve been viewed as a David vs. Goliath battle with the Hurricanes playing the role of the favorites. In this crazy era, it’s the Hoosiers who come in as significant favorites and looking to cap a dream undefeated 16-0 season.
If Miami Wins
The U is back led by the local Miami kid? Just over 49 months ago, Mario Cristobal made an exit from Oregon after the Hurricanes aggressively pursued their former player. He had been 35-13 with the Ducks but was lured by going home with a hefty 10-year contract worth $80 million.
It’s been a slow build with only 12 wins in Cristobal’s first 2 seasons back with Miami.
A title would be an emotional journey for Cristobal.
Heck, after starting 9-0 last year (with no wins over ranked teams) the Canes were on a 10-5 run before this post-season began. It’s never felt like Miami at any time was an elite team capable of winning a title. Yet here they are after destroying Pitt, winning at College Station, taking out Ohio State, and coming back to beat Ole Miss to knock the last remaining SEC team from the playoffs.
The run of hires in Randy Shannon, Al Golden, over the hill Mark Richt, and Manny Diaz led to accusations Miami wasn’t serious about football (they STILL haven’t won a single ACC Championship I will note). Dumping a bag on Cristobal, bringing in future no. 1 pick Cam Ward, and signing a (then) record NIL deal for quarterback Carson Beck has quieted the naysayers about Miami’s commitment.
A title would be Miami’s first in 24 years, and if I’m being honest, would have many of us talking about how the Canes peaked at the right time, built a balanced roster, and won a championship in one of the most wide open seasons in memory. They wouldn’t go down as one of the all-time greats but a championship is a championship.
If Indiana Wins
Will anyone predict the Curt Cignetti machine to slow down after this season? If it does, this will still cap one of the greatest stories in college football history. This place is arguably the worst Power 4 program in history–and while they were outclassed last year against Ohio State and lost to Notre Dame in the playoffs–this turnaround has been so sudden (26-2 since 2024 began) it might take a long time to fully digest what we’ve witnessed.
Are you not entertained?
Naturally, there have been doubters. The Hoosiers didn’t beat a ranked team last year. They did blast a top 25 SP+ Illinois team by 53 points early this season but a close 5-point win at Iowa had plenty of folks wondering whether the house of cards was going to fall soon. It did not. Indiana went into Autzen and won, took down the Buckeyes to win the Big Ten, and have looked better than ever during the playoffs–including roughing up the Ducks even worse a second time.
This could conclude an insane story with Fernando Mendoza going from relatively obscurity at California (30 touchdowns and 16 interceptions with a 9-10 record) to only the 4th person in history to win the Heisman, National Championship, and be the no. 1 overall pick in the NFL Draft. Mendoza could join a group that includes Leon Hart (1949, Notre Dame), Cam Newton (2010, Auburn), and Joe Burrow (2019, LSU).
The Matchup
Indiana has looked so good lately that a spread under 10 points immediately seemed off to me. Miami lost to Louisville and SMU* and they’re gonna be the team to topple this Hoosiers squad? On the surface it doesn’t seem likely. Then again, the Canes have really started to play at a high level too, right when they need it most.
*If Miami wins it’ll be back-to-back 2-loss teams winning the title in the 12-team playoff era, I’d expect that to be an off-season talking point.
I had predicted Miami would fall after things got a little too out of hand offensively against Ole Miss and the strong play of quarterback Trinidad Chambliss. Instead, the Canes produced 28 first downs, converted 11 third downs, kept the ball away from the Rebels, and looked nice and balanced pushing towards 500 yards of offense.
Maybe they can get into a tight dog fight with Indiana but lately Mendoza has barely been throwing any incompletions!
From “nice pick up to get the guy from JMU” to undefeated National Champions 2 years later?
Something that jumped out to me while looking at this game is Miami barely averaging over 6 yards per play on offense, nearly a full yard worse than Indiana. The Hurricanes haven’t gained 6 yards per play on offense in their last 4 games, or in 9 out of their last 12 games.
For me, this is going to be about Miami defensive coordinator Corey Hetherman. He was on Cignetti’s staff at James Madison and the Canes prying him away from Minnesota (and paying a lot of money to do so) after just one season was the assistant coach hire of the off-season.
Miami was 67th in FEI defense last year and is 4th right now. They haven’t given up 30 points in any game all year! If they pull off this upset, Hetherman is going to shoot up to the best young (he’s 44 so not super, super young) coordinators in America and be a hot name for head coaching jobs in the future.
I’ve been so impressed with this Indiana offense, though. The backs run so damn hard, there are 5-6 legit options in the passing game, and the improvement from Rourke at quarterback last year to Mendoza this year has meant they’re thriving against the best teams they face. I’ll stick with my gut that they win and cover.
Bring back the Coach Watch stream!
Posted on Discord, but as an IU alum (grad school, 2001) I have paid more than enough money to have a permanent place on the bandwagon.
Miami better clean up their game.
As in…?
Assuming tlndma isn’t talking about Miami needing to bring brooms, mops, and feather dusters with them to the stadium, it’s probably related to their penchant for fumbles and the high number of penalties committed against Ole Miss.
In the playoffs so far:
Carson has fumbled twice (none lost) and Toney has fumbled 3 (!!) times (1 lost).
Got it! Merci!
I was wondering if he was harking back to the Convicts era 🙂
They didn’t clean it up.
By the way — just to say, our 18S lacrosse writers gotta get some credit. HCMF used “Leave No Doubt” about ten times in his presser. Gotta love it!