Week 2 is behind us and with the losses by Oregon and Ohio State the top of the rankings has opened up a little bit. Coming into this weekend the out of conference games take a back seat and league games are in the spotlight. We are very quickly moving into the thick of the season–the leaves are falling and getting crunchy, temperatures are starting to drop, and of the most anticipated returns to a former home happens on Saturday.

2026 Betting Record

Against the Spread: 6-12
Straight Up: 10-8

The first couple weeks have not been good going up against the spread. We’ve been here before and won’t be deterred. I’m going to console myself and say these league games are going to shoot me right back over .500 soon. Very soon!

Week 3 Games to Watch

All times are Eastern. Rankings are from the AP Poll.

Syracuse [+10.5] at Pittsburgh
Thursday, September 17, 7:30 PM, ESPN

Syracuse opened up their ACC account with a deflating loss to California last weekend so this game lost a little bit of its hype–I was hoping we could see Peanut Butter Angeli pick up a big road win against Pitt. Maybe we still can see that? Either way, there are worse ways to spend your Thursday evening.

Pittsburgh 37
Syracuse 29

#22 Houston [+7.5] at #13 Texas Tech
Friday, September 18, 8:00 PM, Fox

My pre-season preview of the 2026 had Texas Tech with the weakest schedule among Power programs. Certainly that’s the case among the ranked teams right now. Even worse, as things stand this home game against ranked (for now) Houston is the most difficult remaining test for the Red Raiders. I’m not even sure Houston is that strong (31st in SP+ and 51st in FEI at the moment) but I also feel like Texas Tech is very much on that other side of the top teams who are in contention for a title and might go 12-0 (again thanks to a weak schedule). I’m not sure what I want to see more, Tech losing this game or potentially going 12-0 and not even cracking the top 5 in the playoff rankings down the road. How about the former?

Houston 28
Texas Tech 26

North Carolina [+3.5] at Clemson
Saturday, September 19, 12:00 PM, ESPN

I bring this game up for two reasons. One, should Clemson be favored against anyone in the ACC right now?? Okay, maybe against Stanford or Boston College. But against what might be a decently improved North Carolina team? Now, I don’t want to stump too hard for the Tar Heels here, mind you. My other reason for highlighting this game is because true freshman Clemson quarterback Tait Reynolds looks straight out of a 1980’s villain role. He’s either going to bring Clemson back from the brink or be the face of the end of Dabo Swinney’s tenure with the Tigers. I really think it’ll be those two extremes as the only possibilities.

Just a guy from Arizona with frosted hair.

I think North Carolina shows just enough offensive productivity to win this on the road.

North Carolina 27
Clemson 24

Florida State [+19.5] at #10 Alabama
Saturday, September 19, 3:30 PM, ABC

Man, remember this matchup last year? Florida State sent a little shockwave throughout college football with a 31-17 win against the Tide and followed it up with a 3-0 start. Alabama didn’t exactly light the world on fire and lost 3 more games yet here we are with a massive spread in Tuscaloosa. I guess that’s what happens after FSU finished 2025 going 2-7 against power programs and have already lost to SMU this year. I don’t know though, almost 20 points seems really high to me.

Alabama 34
Florida State 19

#16 SMU [+1.5] at #23 Louisville
Saturday, September 19, 3:30 PM, ESPN2

Too early for Louisville playoff talk?

This is SMU’s toughest remaining game on their schedule per FEI (trailing Virginia, Wake Forest, and Virginia Tech). If you’re interested in seeing a 10-0 Mustangs squad coming to South Bend on November 21st then this trip to Louisville is a big, big hurdle. In the interest of ‘everyone in the ACC is probably going to eat other outside of Miami’ I’ll stick with the home team getting this done. This could set the Cardinals up for a nice little run for the rest of the year where they don’t face Miami during the regular season. Also, shout out to ESPN for putting this ranked vs. ranked matchup on the Deuce in favor of the SEC (Kentucky at Texas A&M gets the ESPN main feed).

Louisville 41
SMU 38

Florida [-2.5] at Auburn
Saturday, September 19, 7:00 PM, ESPN

This is a mildly interesting game, especially if Florida can win. They are just outside the AP top 25 right now and haven’t beaten Auburn on the road since 1999, losing the last 3 meetings inside Jordan-Hare Stadium. The Gators being favored is interesting, I’m not sure having a backup from Georgia Tech as your quarterback is the answer for Florida, but I could be wrong.

Auburn 23
Florida 19

#7 LSU [-3] at #8 Ole Miss
Saturday, September 19, 7:30 PM, ABC

This may not have been a top 5 game of the season heading into 2026 but in terms of spiciness and drama this one is tough to beat across the whole country. My only regret is that it’s so early in the season and we don’t have a ton of history and angst built up yet. Yes, it’s Lane Kiffin’s return to Ole Miss after coaching the Rebels for 6 seasons and there’s plenty of talk in the media about security concerns for this visit from LSU. Ultimately, I think those concerns will be plenty overblown.

It’s going to be a big weekend at the Grove. 

The storylines here are fascinating. If Ole Miss wins, suddenly Pete Golding has to be talked about as a potential top 15 coach in the sport and the Rebels are in the thick of the SEC/playoff conversation. A loss probably isn’t a huge deal for Ole Miss (they’re home dogs right?) but it’s tougher for LSU who will have to deal with Kiffin embarrassment AND Texas A&M coming to Death Valley next Saturday. I am smelling on overtime thriller, like a couple years ago. Note, LSU is playing at Ole Miss for the 2nd straight season due to SEC scheduling restructuring.

LSU 51
Ole Miss 48