Last week was pretty awesome for college football. Loads of fun games and interesting results. Plus, we got the special treat of Michigan and USC both losing embarrassingly which should fill the hearts of Notre Dame fans across the globe. What’s in store for week 5?
2026 Betting Record
Against the Spread: 14-20
Straight Up: 20-14
A week in the right direction for picks. Against the spread 5-4 and straight up 7-2 for the 4th week of college ball. I have to keep my head down and claw things back to .500 ATS.
Week 5 Games to Watch
All times are Eastern. Rankings are from the AP Poll.
Pittsburgh [+3.5] at Virginia Tech
Friday, October 2, 7:00 PM, ESPN
I’m here to mention this game for Friday night after dinner. The winner will be 4-0 and 2-0 within the ACC and perhaps start to be talked about as a potential opponent with Miami in the league championship. Note, both Pitt and Virginia Tech do both travel to Miami later this year, as well. I haven’t liked the Pitt offense against their 2 power opponents this year–I’ll stay with the home favorites.
Virginia Tech 24
Pittsburgh 23
Penn State [-2.5] at Northwestern
Friday, October 2, 8:00 PM, Fox
More Friday night action for those interested. I mentioned Northwestern is certified frisky this year and they brought it to Indiana last week after a very slow start. Now, a reeling Penn State team comes to Evanston with Northwestern officially opening up their new stadium at night for a national audience on Fox. I’m super curious to see if any pitchforks get sharpened for Matt Campbell if they lose this one–I’d think it’s still way too early for that, but maybe not! I think the Nittany Lions barely hang on.
Penn State 26
Northwestern 24
#7 Alabama [-6] at #16 Mississippi State
Saturday, October 3, 12:00 PM, ABC
The SEC world descends on Starkville for a Noon start this Saturday, the first truly big game for the Bulldogs on their campus in how long? Has it been at least 10 years? You may have to go back to the Dak Prescott era back in 2014-15, I’d think. But, how good is Miss State this year really? We’re about to find out. Kamario Taylor has shown shades of Cam Newton (although not nearly the running threat, especially in terms of volume of carries). If he plays well, and the Bulldogs win, his stock is going to be insane with Miami or whomever getting together a $20 million NIL deal for 2027. The Tide probably crush those dreams to an extent (they’ve won about a million in a row in this series) but I like a home cover at least with a fun game.
Alabama 39
Miss State 35
#5 Ohio State [-14] at #14 Iowa
Saturday, October 3, 3:30 PM, CBS
Ohio State’s last visit to Iowa City.Â
There was probably a decent chance that Ohio State was going to overlook this trip to Iowa but since the Hawkeyes glorious win over Michigan, I don’t think so anymore. This is only the 3rd meeting between these schools over the past 9 seasons, and Ohio State’s first visit to Iowa City since 2017. That last visit was crazy though, Nate Stanley threw 5 touchdowns, J.T. Barrett threw 4 interceptions, and Iowa won 55-24. I don’t see that happening again. I’m locking in an Ohio State cover this weekend.
Ohio State 30
Iowa 9
#8 Florida [-4.5] at #25 Missouri
Saturday, October 3, 3:30 PM, ABC
Hmm, this would be classic college football for Florida to fall on its face after mostly everyone thinks they are now back to some degree. I don’t think Missouri is that good, but they could be good enough to spark an upset here. Ahh! I really think the Gators have a huge letdown. But damn, I was impressed with them last week and maybe they are really good?
Florida 28
Missouri 20
#4 Miami [-16.5] at Clemson
Saturday, October 3, 7:30 PM, ABC
Four more games for Miami until they face Notre Dame and this is probably their stiffest challenge before meeting the Irish. We’ll get a good look at how Miami’s offense will handle a semi-competent defense. Will we get some BYOG nighttime boost for Dabo Swinney and he turns back the clock? I can see a weirdly frustrating game for Miami…for a while. Nothing about Clemson this year makes me believe they can hang for 4 quarters.
Miami 34
Clemson 13
Did you mean to have Clemson beating Miami?
It’s not going to happen but man, just imagine if we get that outcome!
Whoops, no!
At the risk of being a prisoner of the moment, I’ll take Northwestern over Penn State. The Nits have no offense whatsoever and Northwestern has shown that they can hang with Indiana. I see a low scoring slugfest, let’s say 20-13
Jeez, you are ignoring a lot of bad history for OSU at Iowa. Why does anyone think this will be easy for them? They don’t play like a top 5 team, and Iowa will gum Sayin & Smith up on offense. They will hate this game and the points are a no-brainer. Will remind you next week that I said so.
Hey, I talked about Ohio State’s last visit and even included a picture!
Also, Iowa is 2-11 against ranked teams over the last 5 seasons and lightning just struck last week so…
😉
Florida still sucks too, btw.