Six years into his tenure, most of us would probably agree based on anecdotal evidence that Brian Kelly has demonstrated a knack for developing Notre Dame draft picks, helping players to move to the next level as a higher draft pick and/or in more productive fashion that any of us anticipated. Sometimes it’s an unheralded player who becomes a star, sometimes it’s a heralded player who becomes more polished, sometimes it’s a player who went through one or more position changes, but we have some sense that Kelly and his staff are good at getting these guys to the League.
But how good is he, really?
Notre Dame Draft Picks Under Kelly
Brian Kelly has always been pretty good at turning out NFL prospects, even at the lower-profile schools on his resume; just ask Connor Barwin or Joe Staley. He has ratcheted it up at Notre Dame, which given the greater talent pool available to him shouldn’t be all that surprising. In his six seasons at Notre Dame, Kelly has produced a total of 27 draft picks, for an average of 4.5 picks per year. The 2015 draft, which saw only Ben Koyack selected, was a bit of an anomaly due to the exceptional youth of the Irish roster at the time; Kelly’s average across other Notre Dame seasons is 5.2. Notably, Kelly has turned out six first-rounders since 2012, not including Jaylon Smith, who would’ve been a top ten pick without the freak injury he suffered in the bowl game this year. Seven first-round selections since 2012 would be tied with Florida, Florida State, Ohio State, and Texas A&M for the second-most in that time period, behind Alabama’s eleven. Had Jaylon Smith been healthy, the Irish almost certainly would’ve produced three first-round picks in a single draft for the first time since 1994.
If that’s not enough… Not only is Kelly turning out first-rounders at a substantial clip, but they’ve also been very productive in the NFL. Michael Floyd is a substantial part of Arizona’s offense, Harrison Smith is a Pro Bowl safety, Zack Martin is an All-Pro lineman, and Tyler Eifert is a Pro Bowl tight end. Ronnie Stanley looks poised to assume the starting left tackle spot in Baltimore. The Texans should feel pretty good about Will Fuller, judging from the last few years of Notre Dame draft picks, and the Irish look pretty good to add at least one more first rounder in 2017 as well in Mike McGlinchey. Clearly something is working pretty well.
Notre Dame Draft Picks Under Other Irish Coaches
So we’ve established that Kelly has turned out a decent number of Notre Dame draft picks in particular, more first-rounders than we’ve seen in a while, and that those picks do well at the next level. But we lack context for how well he’s really doing – has he produced 27 draft picks because good players are attracted to Notre Dame and the league notices players at Notre Dame (and other blue bloods) more easily, or because Kelly and his staff are doing something better than his predecessors?
I was a little surprised to find out that in quantity, Kelly is actually very comparable to the last few coaches. Remember that Kelly has averaged 4.5 picks per year – Charlie Weis turned 3.8 picks per year (19 total), Ty Willingham averaged 4.7 picks per year (14 total, half of which were in the first year), and Bob Davie averaged 4.2 picks per year. Lou Holtz, as you might expect, was substantially better, averaging 5.7 picks per year over his 11 seasons in South Bend (counting only those selected in the first seven rounds to keep everything apples to apples).
If you dig beyond the surface numbers, something very interesting emerges. While Weis, Willingham, and Davie were all roughly comparable to Kelly in quantity, they weren’t remotely comparable in quality – but Holtz was. Kelly has produced 16 players selected in the first three rounds in six seasons, while the Three Stooges gave us 19 such players in 13 seasons. Even more strikingly, Kelly’s six first-rounders in six years looks pretty shiny as compared to his predecessors’ three first-rounders in 13 years (sad trombone). That’s not a misprint – Kelly has produced twice as many first-round selections in half the time. In fact, if you look at the per-round ratios, Davie, Willingham, and Weis’s distributions are all strikingly similar, with the later rounds more heavily represented, and Kelly’s distribution is almost exactly inverted from theirs.
You know what it looks like, in fact? It looks like Lou Holtz’s distribution. Holtz produced 12 first round selections in 11 years, to go with 15 second rounders and 8 third rounders. That’s strikingly similar to Kelly’s record of 6 first rounders, 6 second rounders, and 4 third rounders in six years.
Context is King
Not content, folks, context… So, with some context provided for Kelly’s draft record, it’s pretty clear that he has in fact been very productive, at least in a way that catches the eye of NFL talent evaluators. There no doubt are multiple factors behind his performance, but recruiting evaluations, staff composition, and player development are certainly all essential to it. The beauty of this kind of movement is that, while it always requires hard work, it starts to develop a certain amount of inertia at some point. You pump out high draft picks, more elite talent wants to play for you, it’s easier to turn them into high draft picks, more elite talent wants to play for you… You get the idea. Of course, the inertia also works against you, as we found out during the dark ages. There’s every reason to believe that we’ll see the trend continue, and that Brian Kelly will continue to stand in the top tier of Irish coaches at developing professional-quality talent.
Related to the inertial aspects you stated. When you turn out high draft picks, they turn into good players in the NFL, and then NFL coaches tend to trust the players coming from ND, then NFL coaches feel confident about drafting ND players, etc.
Unrelated to that. But I was really disappointed that ND didn’t have any late round picks this year. I really thought all Okwara/Shumate/Brown were worthy of 6th/7th round picks. Those extra 3 picks would have put BK’s average at 5.
If think Farley would have been a perfect player to take over for the Patriots’ Matthew Slater (perennial ST pro-bowler) and definitely worth a draft pick. But I think the Pats started looking for that guy last year, and already have him in the fold.
Good points. Those guys were probably better off for being undrafted, honestly – once you get to the 6th your chances of making a team aren’t much better than a UFA, but you’re temporarily locked into the team that picked you. I think a really interesting factoid from this past season is that every Notre Dame prospect who wanted a shot at the NFL got one, I think 13 in all. That’s pretty impressive, especially considering several of those guys were reserves or part-time starters.
Hell, Jarrett Grace actually managed to earn a contract out of his camp invite, and he could barely get on the field last year. We’re in a place, talent-wise, that we haven’t been since Lou’s peak. We’re not quite as good as his peak yet, but I think we’re headed there.
great article, Brendan. The numbers are striking. Maybe this will be our year.
I think you mean “momentum” rather than “inertia” re Kelly’s tenure. We had inertia under his 3 failing predecessors IMO.
Keep up the great work, this is the best ND site by far.
Thanks man, appreciate the kind words!
And now, because I just love science-y stuff… Physics geek alert! I was a physics major for my first semester at ND, and deep down inside I will always wish it had worked out… Anyway, people tend to use inertia in the sense of “massive thing sitting in one spot that’s really hard to move,” but it applies in two ways – that, and “massive thing moving somewhere that’s really hard to slow down.” It’s what’s described by Newton’s first law of motion, which is that an object at rest tends to remain at rest, while an object in motion tends to remain in motion.
You get inertia of motion by adding momentum to a resting body. Kelly is building desirable inertia by adding upwards momentum, while his predecessors built undesirable inertia by making no progress in any direction or adding downwards momentum, a.k.a. the Willingham Effect.
Like I said, I’m a complete physics geek. My apologies to the world at large.
HAH! Good stuff 😊
Thumbs up for Physics. I got the undergrad mostly because of inertia, after 3 years of that, I was not about to change direction.
Self-correction: I shouldn’t have said “massive thing,” the mass in and of itself isn’t relevant. As juicebox notes, it’s all about momentum, baby – small things have inertia just like big things do. It’s easier to overcome the inertia of small things, but they still have it. Shame on me. Somewhere Neil deGrasse Tyson is shaking his head ruefully.
Mass in motion as opposed to resistance to motion? Enh…Didn’t we established that momentum ain’t real in football? So if a mathematical equation don’t apply to footbaw, how much more so a concept with no maths not apply? …Or would being a (mere?) conceptual device actually make it applicable? Tsk…
For the physics discussion. My preferred simple explanation of inertia is just the resistance to change momentum, whether said Mo be 0 or a gazillion. Loosely related and fun (if you are a nerd): Unstoppable Force vs Immovable Object. NdGT loves to chime in on this stuff too
and related to those guys being better off as UDFA’s, I totally agree. But I would love for ND to be able to say they had 3 more guys drafted.
That’s a great explanation – simple and clear. I’m definitely stealing it. I love Minute Physics! I, um, subscribe to the podcast… Again, mega geek.
Good stuff man, thanks!
Oooohhh, bonus points for a “how much more” formulation.
Add Nick Martin to the list of guys drafted this year who have a great shot at making an impact. The Texans are absolutely raving about him.
Absolutley. Bill O’Brien said Martin is probably the best rookie he’s ever coached – high praise from a guy who had no use for Louis Nix.
So sad, Irish Chocolate, you are missed…