Six years into his tenure, most of us would probably agree based on anecdotal evidence that Brian Kelly has demonstrated a knack for developing Notre Dame draft picks, helping players to move to the next level as a higher draft pick and/or in more productive fashion that any of us anticipated. Sometimes it’s an unheralded player who becomes a star, sometimes it’s a heralded player who becomes more polished, sometimes it’s a player who went through one or more position changes, but we have some sense that Kelly and his staff are good at getting these guys to the League.

But how good is he, really?

Notre Dame Draft Picks Under Kelly

Brian Kelly has always been pretty good at turning out NFL prospects, even at the lower-profile schools on his resume; just ask Connor Barwin or Joe Staley. He has ratcheted it up at Notre Dame, which given the greater talent pool available to him shouldn’t be all that surprising. In his six seasons at Notre Dame, Kelly has produced a total of 27 draft picks, for an average of 4.5 picks per year. The 2015 draft, which saw only Ben Koyack selected, was a bit of an anomaly due to the exceptional youth of the Irish roster at the time; Kelly’s average across other Notre Dame seasons is 5.2. Notably, Kelly has turned out six first-rounders since 2012, not including Jaylon Smith, who would’ve been a top ten pick without the freak injury he suffered in the bowl game this year. Seven first-round selections since 2012 would be tied with Florida, Florida State, Ohio State, and Texas A&M for the second-most in that time period, behind Alabama’s eleven. Had Jaylon Smith been healthy, the Irish almost certainly would’ve produced three first-round picks in a single draft for the first time since 1994.

If that’s not enough… Not only is Kelly turning out first-rounders at a substantial clip, but they’ve also been very productive in the NFL. Michael Floyd is a substantial part of Arizona’s offense, Harrison Smith is a Pro Bowl safety, Zack Martin is an All-Pro lineman, and Tyler Eifert is a Pro Bowl tight end. Ronnie Stanley looks poised to assume the starting left tackle spot in Baltimore. The Texans should feel pretty good about Will Fuller, judging from the last few years of Notre Dame draft picks, and the Irish look pretty good to add at least one more first rounder in 2017 as well in Mike McGlinchey. Clearly something is working pretty well.

Notre Dame Draft Picks Under Other Irish Coaches

So we’ve established that Kelly has turned out a decent number of Notre Dame draft picks in particular, more first-rounders than we’ve seen in a while, and that those picks do well at the next level. But we lack context for how well he’s really doing – has he produced 27 draft picks because good players are attracted to Notre Dame and the league notices players at Notre Dame (and other blue bloods) more easily, or because Kelly and his staff are doing something better than his predecessors?

I was a little surprised to find out that in quantity, Kelly is actually very comparable to the last few coaches. Remember that Kelly has averaged 4.5 picks per year – Charlie Weis turned 3.8 picks per year (19 total), Ty Willingham averaged 4.7 picks per year (14 total, half of which were in the first year), and Bob Davie averaged 4.2 picks per year. Lou Holtz, as you might expect, was substantially better, averaging 5.7 picks per year over his 11 seasons in South Bend (counting only those selected in the first seven rounds to keep everything apples to apples).

If you dig beyond the surface numbers, something very interesting emerges. While Weis, Willingham, and Davie were all roughly comparable to Kelly in quantity, they weren’t remotely comparable in quality – but Holtz was. Kelly has produced 16 players selected in the first three rounds in six seasons, while the Three Stooges gave us 19 such players in 13 seasons. Even more strikingly, Kelly’s six first-rounders in six years looks pretty shiny as compared to his predecessors’ three first-rounders in 13 years (sad trombone). That’s not a misprint – Kelly has produced twice as many first-round selections in half the time. In fact, if you look at the per-round ratios, Davie, Willingham, and Weis’s distributions are all strikingly similar, with the later rounds more heavily represented, and Kelly’s distribution is almost exactly inverted from theirs.

You know what it looks like, in fact? It looks like Lou Holtz’s distribution. Holtz produced 12 first round selections in 11 years, to go with 15 second rounders and 8 third rounders. That’s strikingly similar to Kelly’s record of 6 first rounders, 6 second rounders, and 4 third rounders in six years.

Context is King

Not content, folks, context… So, with some context provided for Kelly’s draft record, it’s pretty clear that he has in fact been very productive, at least in a way that catches the eye of NFL talent evaluators. There no doubt are multiple factors behind his performance, but recruiting evaluations, staff composition, and player development are certainly all essential to it. The beauty of this kind of movement is that, while it always requires hard work, it starts to develop a certain amount of inertia at some point. You pump out high draft picks, more elite talent wants to play for you, it’s easier to turn them into high draft picks, more elite talent wants to play for you… You get the idea. Of course, the inertia also works against you, as we found out during the dark ages. There’s every reason to believe that we’ll see the trend continue, and that Brian Kelly will continue to stand in the top tier of Irish coaches at developing professional-quality talent.