Week 16 Recap

Let’s first start with the biggest game of the weekend that didn’t happen in the Sun Belt. Because of an outbreak on Coastal Carolina’s team, the game had to be canceled, much to Louisiana’s chagrin. The Ragin Cajun program seemed to want to move it to a bowl, which Coastal declined. So according to the Sun Belt, both teams will share the Sun Belt title, with Coastal taking precedent if they were fortunate to make a NY6 bowl, which…(checks above introduction) they were not able to secure a high enough ranking to do so.

Speaking of canceled games, Cincinnati and Tulsa were supposed to play in Oklahoma last week but were unable to due to an outbreak in the Bearcats program. Luckily, these two played Saturday night in a rainy night in Cincinnati. The defenses set the tone on both sides, with the Tulsa defense proving itself on a big stage, getting two of the three turnovers off the Bearcats offense. All but one of those turnovers were fumbles, no doubt caused by the rainy weather. Tulsa also missed a FG at the end of the half due to the soaked conditions, which would turn out to be critical late. Cincinnati is probably going to be kicking themselves that the game came down to a last second FG, as they left plenty of opportunities on the table, between a blocked FG and getting stopped inside the five on downs in the fourth quarter while they still held a TD lead. Tulsa ended up putting together a TD drive, with a little luck on a long catch that went through two different Cincy DBs. Tulsa tied it with 3:41 left and never saw the ball again. The Bearcats drained the clock over 12 plays and 51 yards to set up the aforementioned 24 yard FG from Cole Smith that gave Cincinnati the American Championship but also clinched their spot in the NY6.

For the third straight year, the MAC Championship decided to go against what people thought was going to happen and decided to smile upon the Cardinals instead. After having a hot start in their first couple of games, Buffalo’s Jaret Patterson was mostly bottled up by the Ball State defense, finishing with 18 carries and 47 yards with a sole TD to his name. Patterson’s counterpart, Kevin Marks Jr, also had a similar lack of success on the ground, barring a sixty-seven yard TD rush towards the end of the third quarter. Defensive Coordinator, and former Notre Dame DL, Tyler Stockton made great adjustments during the game, breaking the game open late in the first half, capping off a 28 point second quarter with a strip sack of Buffalo QB Kyle Vantrease, that was taken back for a TD. A FG early in the second half gave Ball State all the points it needed as Buffalo’s second half offense struggled to get anything going. Their drives ended in; Turnover on Downs, Punt, TD (the aforementioned Marks Jr run), Interception, Punt, Turnover on Downs, Turnover on Downs, End of Game. Ball State QB Drew Plitt also gave one of his best performances of the season, throwing for 273 yards 1 TD, and rushing for another score to help lead the offense and put points on the board to keep up with the Buffalo offense early. Ball State wins it’s first conference championship since 1996.

The biggest jump of the weekend (that played a game) was San Jose State. I have been thinking over these past couple of weeks that I wasn’t sure that Boise State was as good as a “normal” Boise State team would be and that their reputation would precede them as San Jose State missed their opportunity to play the Broncos earlier this season due to an outbreak on Boise’s end. The Spartans were not deterred as their defense showed up try and show that they belonged. They shut down the Broncos offense for most of the game, and if their offense could have finished off some of their second quarter drives, all of which ended in field goals, this game would have been over by halftime. Boise State had a brief spark with a punt return TD by Avery Williams got the Broncos within six, but the Broncos would never inch closer than a seven point deficit. San Jose State turned that punt return into a 3:31 drive over nine plays a TD to extend their lead. Boise State would answer with a TD of their own to bring it back to seven, but the Spartan offense drained the clock once again in a 7 play 42 yard TD drive lasting 4:30 minutes. The Bronco offense struggled to get more than a couple of yards per play to get back into the game. San Jose State QB, and Arkansas transfer, Nick Starkel slung the ball all over the field on the Broncos, going 32/52 for 453 yards and 3 TDs.  The Spartans offense doubled up Boise State on yards and first downs to take this game, and win their first Conference Title in the Mountain West.

The weirdest result of the weekend happened at the same time of the MAC Championship, the C-USA Championship. Both teams were seemingly limping into the contest, as Marshall had their game with Charlotte cancelled but also laid an egg at home against Rice in their last game and UAB were down a dozen scholarship players in their matchup against Rice to try and get the magical fourth conference game to clinch their ticket to this game. The game itself was just as weird, with Marshall WB Grant Wells completing his first pass with 7:55 left…in the third quarter. Wells finished 8/23 on the day with two TD throws, including a bomb to Xavier Gaines that almost tied the game, but the two point conversion failed. UAB played a seemingly safe game, trying to run the ball and move the chains and chew clock to tire out the Marshall defensive front. They were successful on both counts, accounting for 216 on the ground and 266 through the air and accounting for over forty minutes of possession. UAB had two second half drives that lasted less than 100 seconds; one was a fumble on a botched exchange on a read option, the other was because of a 71 yard TD catch and run by Trea Shropshire to extend the Blazers lead to nine. UAB, still one of the best stories in college football considering where they were five years ago, has won two of the last three C-USA Championships and head coach Bill Clark continues to get good buzz about the job he’s doing in Birmingham.

Last, but certainly not least, we have the de facto Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy Championship between Army and Air Force. After Navy left behind the trophy during last week’s 15-0 drubbing in West Point, Air Force came into town thinking that they could and would crack the Army defense. They were mistaken early and often. Cameron Jones intercepted a deep ball from Air Force QB Hazziq Daniels on the opening drive, which set the tone of another defensive struggle between the two service academies. Army would go on and fumble late in their ensuing drive, but Air Force missed the ensuing FG. Then, Army went on the most service academy drive we have seen in a while. The drive was 20 plays, 73 yards, took over 10 minutes of game time, and ended in 24 yard FG for the lead. Both defenses tightened up more late into the second quarter and into the third, where teams exchanged turnovers through downs and missed FGs before deciding to punt back and forth. Air Force finally broke through with a 5 minute, 10 play, TD drive that seemed to be the difference in the game, especially after Army punted on the ensuing possession. However, Daniels tried to go deep again for the Falcons but was once again picked off by Jabari Moore, and the Army offense was back in business. 16 plays, 80 yards, 7:11 led to the game winning TD by Jakobi Buchanan. The ensuing play from scrimmage resulted in Daniels’ third interception of the game and Army took home the CIC Trophy for the third time in four years. It is truly a shame that as I’m writing this Army does not have a bowl opponent because they truly played some excellent football down the stretch and I for one wish they could show off to a willing and able opponent. (Update: They Did!)

G5 Bowl Preview

(Opening Lines Used Below)

I’m gonna try and do tweet-length previews for all of these games and make my pick against the spread

App State (-21) vs North Texas (Myrtle Beach Bowl)

I think the Mountaineers are incredibly better than their record and I think they’ll show it on a field they know well, especially against a low tier C-USA squad.

Nevada vs Tulane (-3.5) (Famous Idaho Potato Bowl)

Tulane has been the advanced stats darling since they have seemingly played well but have been unlucky in their record. Nevada defense may keep this close but Tulane covers.

UCF (+4.5) vs BYU (Boca Raton Bowl)

The best matchup on paper. Neither team has played in a couple of weeks so I’d be curious how this game starts. I think BYU’s offense is too explosive to not score their points, but I think UCF can keep up and make it a FG game.

Louisiana Tech (+5.5) vs Georgia Southern (New Orleans Bowl)

I think Louisiana Tech’s offense will score quickly enough and keep enough of Georgia Southern’s drives under five minutes to keep this closer than the line indicates. If GaSo starts the game with two TD drives it may be gameover.

Florida Atlantic vs Memphis (-9.5) (Montgomery Bowl)

I think Florida Atlantic is a paper tiger, especially since they seemed to struggle with Georgia Southern’s offense earlier. I don’t know how they can handle Memphis’. This line could be 4 points higher and I think I’d still take Memphis.

Houston vs Hawaii (+10.5) (New Mexico Bowl)

Two giant question marks of a team as one team never really showed their true potential due to lack of games and the other continues to be a baffling roller coaster that makes late night football fun to watch. I’ll take the points just because I’m unsure how this game will go.

Buffalo (-3) vs Marshall (Camellia Bowl)

I think Buffalo’s rushing tandem are going to take out their collective frustration of their lack of performance in Detroit on this battered Marshall defense. Wells probably won’t play as bad as he did Friday, but I’m not sure his best game will be enough.

UAB (-5) vs South Carolina (Gasparilla Bowl)

Without question, the weirdest matchup of the season as a 2 win SEC team is the overwhelming dog against the C-USA champion. We will probably never see a matchup like this again so I guess enjoy it? I think UAB is gonna ride high and walk all over South Carolina.

Coastal Carolina (-6) vs Liberty (Cure Bowl)

Coastal deserved so much better than this. Can we switch South Carolina and Liberty and at least give the Chants a conference champion? Liberty will probably keep this game close as they have some weapons to keep up. Freeze coaching rumors may be a distraction though.

UTSA vs Louisiana (-13) (First Responder Bowl)

UTSA should feel lucky that they were able to switch up their bowl and opponent so early on (looks at Army). Louisiana should be in control of this game even if they are disappointed that they aren’t getting a second chance at Coastal.

Western Kentucky (+5) vs Georgia State (LendingTree Bowl)

The Western Kentucky defense should be the best unit between these two teams and I think because of that belief that this will be close. Georgia State has been known to disrupt what teams do best but I still think this game is close so I’ll take the points.

Tulsa (-2) vs Mississippi State (Armed Forces Bowl)

Tulsa will have the most one-dimensional offenses they’ve faced so far in the Leach offense. I think they will take control since they have had success with a better version of this offense (and one that had a better RB) in OK State.

Ball State (+7) vs San Jose State (Arizona Bowl)

I think this line is disrespectful to what the Ball State defense just did to an offense that is on a similar tier to San Jose State’s. I think the passing game is great, but I have confidence that Ball State will keep it close, or get a backdoor cover.

Army vs West Virginia (NL) (Liberty Bowl)

The Black Knights are fired up to play this game after pressing the college football world for a shot at their 10th win, it just took Tenn COVID to get there. I think Army wins a close one.

Cincinnati (+6) vs Georgia (Peach Bowl)

The grandaddy of them all for G5. Georgia has improved but I think Cincy has a strong enough defense to weather that storm. Comes down to how Riddler plays on the big stage.