The End of a Strange Journey

The prospects of the 2021 class undoubtedly went through the strangest recruiting experience in the post-World War II era of college football. They couldn’t take real visits, couldn’t view practices, couldn’t go to games, couldn’t have coaches visit them. When they committed, it was often to a school they hadn’t formally visited in over a year and sometimes a school they hadn’t visited ever. Coaches relied on Zoom meetings to connect with prospects. Many prospects went on what came to be called independent visits, where they just drop into campus and wander around. Per NCAA rules they weren’t allowed to have in-person contact with any member of the program, faculty, or administration, and in many cases building weren’t even open to visitors. It was at least something, though, when these kids desperately needed some sign that a particular campus would be a good place for them.

Not surprisingly, we saw quite a few flipped commitments nationwide this cycle. I imagine we’ll also see a spike in transfers in the next year or two nationwide, especially if the NCAA enacts the one-time no-penalty transfer rule that’s currently under consideration. Can you blame these kids? Many will truly experience their campus and their coaching staff for the first time after enrollment. It’s wacky. I think the fallout from this cycle will likely last for a few years, as numbers churn and affect classes downstream. Going to be an interesting ride indeed.

Last year I enthused about the nine early enrollees in the 2020 class, which was the most the Irish have seen in one class. Well, 2021 anted up in a big way, with 14 early enrollees out of 27 total signees – and some of those 14 are at very key positions. OT Blake Fisher, OG Rocco Spindler, QB Tyler Buchner, WR Lorenzo Styles, DT Gabriel Rubio, TE Cane Berrong, CB Philip Riley, OT Caleb Johnson, TE Mitchell Evans, CB Ryan Barnes, S Justin Walters, WDE Devin Aupiu, WDE Will Schweitzer, and QB Ron Powlus are all on campus already. Working with Matt Balis already, digging into the playbook already, adjusting to campus and academic life already.

Finally, the flip market was pretty active and a little wacky, as one might expect. The Irish voluntarily lost OC Greg Crippen to Michigan and DE David Abiara to Texas; they involuntarily lost CB Philip Riley to USC and WR Deion Colzie to the ether before getting both back. They flipped DE Will Schweitzer from Nebraska, DE Devin Aupiu from UCLA, OT Caleb Johnson from Auburn, RB Audric Estime from Michigan State, S Khari Gee from LSU, and K Josh Bryan from Colorado. They came close to flipping DE Kelvin Gilliam from Oklahoma and losing RB Logan Diggs to LSU too. And they had some anxious moments with LB Prince Kollie when Clark Lea left for the Vanderbilt job. Fun!

OK, finally finally… Speaking of Diggs, he provided the last little bit of intrigue in this recruiting cycle. The Louisianan was committed and ready to sign with Notre Dame in December when LSU offered right before the early signing period opened. The strong rumor was that, after going back and forth, Diggs did actually sign with the Irish in December but didn’t announce it, similar to Isaiah Foskey in the 2019 cycle. The further strong rumor was that he was wavering a couple of weeks ago and perhaps trying to back out of his letter of intent. I’ve never seen anything concrete one way or the other, so as far as I know everything there is rumor. In the end though the Irish landed him and were very happy that they did; I think he’s very underrated and has the chance to be a special back. Cherry on the sundae, indeed.

Coach Speak

In previous years we’ve focused on Brian Kelly’s signing day comments. We’re going to shift a bit this year, as Brian Polian, Marcus Freeman, Mike Elston, and Tommy Rees went in depth on The Process™ and there were a lot of interesting nuggets in there.

Polian on chasing elite prospects and a top five class:
“I think part of the process too has been the conviction to walk away from an elite player that you know in your heart is not interested in what we have to offer or may not fit here, so that we can then be more efficient in terms of where we dedicate our resources, to the guys that do fit our profile. I think too, it’s worth mentioning, I understand Coach[ Kelly]’s statement about wanting to be a consistently Top 5 recruiting team and I strive for that same goal every single day, but if you ask Coach, I think he would tell you, would we rather be consistently top five recruiting team or a team that’s consistently in the top five of the polls, which we have been at the end of the season in two of the last three years? I think we would choose the latter.

“Player development is always going to be a part of the process here, but I think ultimately, in order for us to keep climbing those rankings is to not allow anybody to tell us, ‘Hey, you can’t get this guy.’ If we feel like it’s the match, we’re going to go all in and fight those battles and then at the same time, have the common sense not to dedicate resources to guys that clearly are not interested in what it is that we have to offer.”

Polian on incoming NIL (name, image, & likeness) legislation:
“[W]e’ll be competitive. And frankly, the power of the Notre Dame brand is national. It’s not regional and I have no doubt as the rules are put in place that we will be able to capitalize on the power of that brand and our student-athletes will as well.”

Freeman on his pitch to recruits:
“You can get any player in the country you want on the phone when we have such a unique brand and a program to sell. In terms of the things I’ve been telling recruits is that everything you want in any program that’s offered you, you can achieve here plus more… You can be developed here better, just as good or better than anywhere else in the country…

“Now the difference is you got a chance to say you’re a graduate of the University of Notre Dame and that to me is the difference. Yes, you can win a national championship. Yes, you can be developed to be a first-round NFL pick, but now you get to say you’re a graduate of the University of Notre Dame, which does things for you after you’re done playing football that’ll take care of you for the rest of your life.

“I find that extremely enticing. I love being able to develop these relationships and be able to sell that product because to me, it’s the best in the country.” [Where do I sign?]

Freeman on his guiding philosophy:
“That’s something that I believe in, is that relentless work to get better. Relentless work to get the outcomes that you want and that’s something that we preach to our players. I hope they can see those same traits from the guy saying, ‘Hey, we got to be relentless in what we do, relentless in the work we put in.’

“I want to be just like a player. I want to work to have success and recruiting is a big part of that.”

Elston on the evaluation process:
“We do all of that stuff that the national media does, but here at Notre Dame, we have to dive deeper. We can’t just go off what the 247 ratings say; this is a four-star prospect. There’s more to it for us in this evaluation process and Coach Kelly’s evaluation process.

“For example, those things are a young man’s academic foundation, his academic core curriculum. Does he have the support system to be successful at Notre Dame? There’s a rating on that for our football staff that Coach Kelly’s put together. Is he a good citizen? What’s his citizenship? Does he make great decisions? Is he a leader? Does he have great leadership qualities? So we put ratings on all of that stuff. Work ethic and we’re talking to people that are around them on a daily basis. What’s missed inside the national rankings if Notre Dame finishes in the top 10 or the 10th and 247 or Rivals ranking – what’s missing is those components that we put a lot of that Coach Kelly and the staff put a lot of onus on in terms of our evaluation process.”

Elston on Notre Dame’s talent pool:
“The first part of your question,  the top 100 – that varies per season, right? It varies per recruiting cycle based on the fit of a young man and the things that I talked about. You’re asking the question based on Notre Dame and I would say less than half are guys that we can target and go after and for one reason or another.”

Elston on Marcus Freeman’s recruiting style:
“One thing that I’ll tell you is that he’s a tiger and I love that. I love working with other coaches that attack in the recruiting cycle and build relationships and challenge me as a position coach to do the same. At the end of every cycle, you’re talking about where you can always get better and improve.”

It’s too long to get into here, but Rees also had a fascinating answer on how he evaluates intangibles for quarterback prospects. The Cliff Notes version is that he looks for passion for the game, “cognitively how well they can learn, adapt” (our Tommy sounding like a grown up!), positive competitors’ opinions, and a multi-sport background. The full comments are very worth a read; check it out at IrishSportsDaily.com. (They also, of course, have the longer version of Polian, Freeman, and Elston‘s comments).

You can also check out the official Notre Dame signing day coverage at UND.com – they have bios and videos of all the players, interviews with the coaches, etc. The videos in particular are a fun look into the recruits’ personalities.

Class Rankings by Service

247 Composite: 9th (12 four-stars, 15 three-stars, .8969 average rating)

247: 10th (11 four-stars, 14 three-stars, 1 two-star, 1 zero-star, 88.96 average rating)

Rivals: 10th (1 five-star, 11 four-stars, 14 three-stars, 1 two-star, 3.44 average stars)

ESPN: 11th (11 four-stars, 16 three-stars, 79.7 average rating)

Class Composition

Here are the number of signees by position.

QB – 2+
RB – 2
WR – 3
TE – 2
OL – 5
WDE – 2
SDE – 1
DT – 1
LB – 2
CB – 4
S – 2
K – 1

The 2+ at quarterback includes early enrollee freshmen Tyler Buchner and Ron Powlus III and Wisconsin grad transfer Jack Coan. Coan isn’t likely to be the next Russell Wilson, but he’s a high-floor guy who’s battle tested. He’s probably not the guy to get you past Clemson or Alabama, but he can definitely get you past Florida State, Virginia Tech, and, yes, Wisconsin. It was a very smart move by the staff, which otherwise would enter the 2021 season with non-battle-tested Drew Pyne, Brendon Clark, Tyler Buchner, and Ronnie Powlus at quarterback. And with Clark coming off unspecified but significant knee surgery.

The Super Official 18 Stripes Class Grades

As a reminder, here’s our standard grading scale for this exercise:

95-100: Truly elite prospect with All-American potential
90-94: Multi-year starter with All-conference level potential
85-89: Eventual starter with chance to play as underclassman
80-84: Raw prospect with decent potential but a couple years away from impact
75-79: Likely a backup
70-74: Reach by the coaching staff

Staff Offense Grade Defense Grade Overall Grade
Brendan 88.2 85.9 87.3
Eric 85.5 83.4 84.8
Tyler 85.5 84.5 85.3
Overall 86.4 84.8 85.8

 

If you’re curious, a large chunk of the difference in my grade versus those of Eric and Tyler comes from wide variances on Lorenzo Styles, Joe Alt, Philip Riley, and Ryan Barnes. I REGRET NOTHING.

Copying and pasting this thought from the previous NSD review for the third straight year:

Also, I’ll note that Eric was the low man, as he is pretty much every year. Yet further evidence that the people out there (ahem) who think he’s a sunshine-pumper probably never actually bother to read his stuff. Which isn’t that surprising, really.

Offense Signees

247C Score 18S Grade Player City/State Ht/Wt Pos Stars
.9739 97 Blake Fisher Avon, IN 6-6/336 OT * * * * *
.9715 90 Rocco Spindler Clarkston, MI 6-5/315 OG * * * * *
.9685 92 Tyler Buchner La Mesa, CA 6-2/205 QB * * * * *
.9571 89 Deion Colzie Athens, GA 6-4/193 WR * * * * *
.9478 92 Lorenzo Styles Pickerington, OH 6-1/185 WR * * * * *
.9137 85 Cane Berrong Hartwell, GA 6-4/230 TE * * * * *
.9108 87 Audric Estime Montvale, NJ 6-2/215 RB * * * * *
.8991 86 Jayden Thomas Atlanta, GA 6-1/205 WR * * * * *
.8958 87 Caleb Johnson Ocala, FL 6-7/295 OT * * * * *
.8864 83 Joe Alt Minneapolis, MN 6-7/283 OT * * * * *
.8776 83 Mitchell Evans Wadsworth, OH 6-7/295 TE * * * * *
.8742 89 Logan Diggs Metairie, LA 6-0/195 RB * * * * *
.8701 79 Pat Coogan Chicago, IL 6-5/290 OG * * * * *
.8126 72 Ron Powlus III Mishawaka, IN 6-3/225 QB * * * * *

Defense Signees

247C Score 18S Grade Player City/State Ht/Wt Pos Stars
.9474 92 Gabriel Rubio St. Peters, MO 6-6/305 DT * * * * *
.9367 94 Prince Kollie Jonesborough, TN 6-1/210 LB * * * * *
.8992 86 Philip Riley Valrico, FL 6-0/195 CB * * * * *
.8871 87 Khari Gee Atlanta, GA 6-3/185 S * * * * *
.8722 86 Ryan Barnes Gaithersburg, MD 6-2/185 CB * * * * *
.8721 85 Chance Tucker Encino, CA 6-1/180 CB * * * * *
.8721 81 Justin Walters Bolingbrook, IL 6-2/185 S * * * * *
.8714 78 Devin Aupiu Oxnard, CA 6-5/220 WDE * * * * *
.8713 84 Will Schweitzer Los Gatos, CA 6-4/220 WDE * * * * *
.8709 83 Kahanu Kia Honolulu, HI 6-2/220 LB * * * * *
.8689 78 Jason Onye Warwick, RI 6-5/260 SDE * * * * *
.8647 83 JoJo Johnson Merrillville, IN 5-11/180 CB * * * * *

Specialist Signees

247C Score 18S Grade Player City/State Ht/Wt Pos Stars
.8189 89 Josh Bryan Chatsworth, CA 6-0/190 K * * * * *

Grading Out

Addressing Needs: B+

Last year’s class got a B-; it had an uphill climb to a higher grade because it was always going to be a small class, and in fact it finished with just 18 signees and maybe one or two available slots at most left unfilled. This year’s class has 27 kids, which of course makes it a bit easier to address needs. After a small offensive line class last year, the staff needed to hit big this year. They did that. They desperately needed to add numbers in the secondary. They did that too. They needed an elite quarterback, two running backs, and at least one elite receiver, and they did all that. They needed some defensive ends, and they did that.

So what’s keeping this grade from being higher? I think the receiver class is very good but I’m not sold that it’s great. Styles, Colzie, and Thomas are a very good group, but adding a guy like Oregon’s Donte Thornton or Clemson’s Beaux Collins would’ve taken it to the next level. I’m intrigued by the secondary group and I think there are some players there, but again, adding some surer bets – like Ohio State’s Jakailin Johnson, USC’s Ceyair Wright, or Alabama’s Terrion Arnold – would make a difference in the projection. Similarly, at defensive end, actually pulling off the flip with Oklahoma signee Kelvin Gilliam or landing Wisconsin’s TJ Bollers would give the class a different feel.

A little more shininess wouldn’t be the worst thing. But the numbers are there across the board, and I suspect there’s very little dead weight in this class. It’s a very good group.

Home Run Factor: B

The weirdness of this class makes it a little hard to assess home run factor. It’s possible – not overly likely, but possible – that another Kyle Hamilton lurks in this class, for example. In March 2018, the point in Hamilton’s cycle where the 2021 kids were when the quarantine hit and all visits and camps were cancelled, Hamilton was #946 overall in the 247 Composite. Camps, coach evaluations, and his senior season – he was still a low four star, #294 overall, when the season started – were all critical to his rise in the rankings. There are a number of guys in this class who analysts are convinced would’ve blown up had the camp circuit been in full swing. Guys like Chance Tucker, Ryan Barnes, Devin Aupiu, and others were all hurt substantially by the loss of both camps and senior seasons.

Nonetheless, we must once more unto the breach, dear friends. It is our duty (or something like that). Blake Fisher, Lorenzo Styles, Gabriel Rubio, Prince Kollie, and, yes, Tyler Buchner all have the look of future stars. As I touched on above under “Addressing Needs,” a couple of more game-ready guys would’ve been helpful, which pulls this grade down a bit.

Immediate Impact: C+

I legitimately like this class but I just don’t see where the instant contributors are coming from. The Irish need bodies in the secondary in 2021, so there will be opportunity there, but I don’t know how many guys will be ready to step in immediately. Riley, Barnes, and Walters are all on campus already, so they’ll get a big leg up here; Riley in particular has a pretty well rounded game already. Maybe Fisher can crack the two deep. Maybe Styles can capitalize on a murky WR depth chart. Maybe Buchner can push Coan enough in the spring to really compete for the QB1 job in the fall. I do think Estime and Diggs will get backfield snaps in 2021, with a decent chance that at least one sees meaningful snaps.

There is returning experience at RB, WR, TE, DE, DT, and LB, and of course it’s hard for anyone to make an immediate impact on the OL, so impact chances may be limited. Still, who knows? A year ago we would never have predicted that Clarence Lewis would rise to starting CB.

Class Comments

I’ve touched on an awful lot of the weirdness around this cycle already, so I won’t rehash it any further here. I’ll just offer credit to the staff for finding a way to make it work, and credit to the kids who dealt with all of it. I don’t envy them, especially knowing how capable of it I would’ve been at 17/18 years old. When the NCAA will allow schools to have visits again remains very much up in the air, so that’s a major one to track going forward. The dead period currently runs into April and I get the sense they’re going to extend it at least through the summer eventually. Good times.

There wasn’t a ton of drama in the recruitment of this class. Some elite prospects had early interest that fizzled out, most notably five-star Clemson running back Will Shipley – Lance Taylor put about as much effort into that recruitment as you possibly could and still came up empty. Taylor moved on to Donovan Edwards, who seemed interested despite being a Michigan lean for a long time. He ended up signing with Michigan in December; shortly afterwards Michigan announced the addition of his high school coach, former Michigan WR Ron Bellamy, as their new TE coach. Not shady at all… If you’re curious, the NCAA rule about not giving jobs to people connected to recruits – let’s call it the “Harbaugh Rule,” since they enacted it after Harbaugh gave jobs to Rashan Gary’s head coach, Wayne Lyons’s mother, and Devin Bush’s father – applies to off-field jobs only. Harbaugh may not be very good at winning his conference, or his division, or bowl games, or anything really of note, but he’s quite good at skirting NCAA rules.

With the lack of drama comes the feeling that perhaps the Irish staff left something on the table too. Things can get dramatic when lots of elite programs are chasing a kid and the kid has the leverage to ensure a team really wants him. There are a number of prospects I thought Notre Dame might’ve had a real shot with – say 25%+ – had they pushed harder or earlier. A few that stand out in particular for me, with their 247 Composite overall rank:

  • #8 Dallas Turner, WDE, Alabama
  • #9 Emeka Egbuka, WR, Ohio State
  • #22 TreVeyon Henderson, RB, Ohio State
  • #34 Smael Mondon, LB, Georgia
  • #45 LJ Johnson, RB, Texas A&M
  • #50 Terrion Arnold, S, Alabama

Notre Dame got in too late on Turner and Arnold; their recruitment was well along with a batch of major programs already. Egbuka and Mondon would’ve been tough pulls but it never seemed like the staff pushed that hard for them despite them profiling well for the program from what I can remember. The staff wanted Henderson at DB when he was a top 300 guy, and he was adamant that he wanted to be a RB. Johnson was part of the contingency plan for Shipley and, again, it was too late to make inroads by the time they got to him.

Now, that’s not to say the staff would’ve landed all or even any of these guys had things broken the right way. Turner and Arnold are both Florida kids and would’ve been tough to drag out of the South. It’s hard to argue with any elite WR or RB who looks at Ohio State’s recent draft history – which they all do – and connects the dots there. Mondon is from Georgia and Johnson is from Texas, and getting either out of his home state would’ve been extremely difficult. Even allowing for all that, though, these are the battles the staff needs to win if the program is going to take that next step on the field.

We see some steps in that direction in 2022 with new defensive coordinator Marcus Freeman, who was instrumental in landing the recent commitment of #117 overall WDE Tyson Ford and in the last couple of weeks has thrown out new offers to a pair of five-star LBs, #17 Shawn Murphy and #19 Harold Perkins. I think Brian Kelly has struggled a bit with striking a balance of weighing athletic profile versus campus fit; initially he probably tilted too far towards athletic profile, which had some positives certainly but also yielded Aaron Lynch, Max Redfield, Kevin Stepherson, and others, who not only flamed out but also brought others down with them. I think those experiences made him tilt too far toward fit, overvaluing it at the expense of athletic profile. I think it’s drifting back to the middle now, and I’ll be very interested to track it through the 2022 cycle.

Prop Bets

Because there’s nothing we can’t connect to gambling, we’ll leave you with the staff’s prop bets on a few key questions about this class.

Who will see the field the soonest?

  • Brendan: Philip Riley
  • Eric: Tyler Buchner
  • Tyler: Gabriel Rubio

Who has the highest upside?

  • Brendan: Tyler Buchner
  • Eric: Prince Kollie
  • Tyler: Tyler Buchner

Who’s your favorite offensive player?

  • Brendan: Lorenzo Styles
  • Eric: Lorenzo Styles
  • Tyler: Blake Fisher

Who’s your favorite defensive player?

  • Brendan: Ryan Barnes
  • Eric: Prince Kollie
  • Tyler: Prince Kollie