A 2-0 start for Notre Dame hasn’t felt this bad since 2008, and perhaps much longer. The Irish were able to fight back late for a touchdown and accompanied backyard 2-point completion to post a 32-29 victory over visiting Toledo on Saturday. It’s always better to win than lose but the action this weekend continued to show many of the same flaws we witnessed last Sunday night in Tallahassee.

Are we in for a very long and frustrating season? Or will there be stable improvement coming quickly with a very challenging portion of the schedule just around the corner?

Stats Package
STAT IRISH ROCKETS
Score 32 29
Plays 75 63
Total Yards 449 353
Yards Per Play 5.98 5.60
Conversions 8/15 7/17
Completions 24 19
Yards/Pass Attempt 8.80 6.90
Rushes 39 31
Rushing Success 41.9% 30.7%
10+ Yds Rushes 8 3
20+ Yds Passes 3 2
Defense Stuff Rate 33.3% 26.6%

 

*20+ yard passes has been added to the table for 2021.

Notre Dame did jump out to a quick 7-0 lead against Toledo with the feeling this could be an early blowout over a MAC team. Things absolutely did not continue along that path with the Rockets adding a trio of field goals and a pick six to take the lead into halftime. The Irish came back with a field goal and touchdown to lead 24-16 before Toledo capitalized with 2 massive 4th quarter touchdowns.

Thankfully, a quick touchdown drive brought Notre Dame the lead and a late forced fumble sealed the win.

Offense

QB: C
RB: C+
TE: B
OL: F
WR: B-

The run blocking continues to struggle, the backup left tackle left the game with a badly sprained ankle, and the pass blocking became as big of a struggle as we’ve seen during the Kelly era. Not a great recipe! Throw in a sack fumble, pick six, and late fumble leading to 17 Toledo points off turnovers in total and you’ve got your self the perfect mix for a near-upset.

Is the offense broken?

Things are really, really bleak at left tackle and it’s difficult to envision things getting much better when Michael Carmody’s ankle could keep him out a while, Blake Fisher probably isn’t returning until the Navy game in November, and Brian Kelly said they will not move a guard or anyone else (presumably Jarrett Patterson) to this position.

Tosh Baker has been hilariously bad as a pass blocker going back to the Blue-Gold Game in the spring and it really makes you wonder if Joe Alt is going to get a look this week to try and stabilize the situation. Just typing that out (Alt was like 218 pounds a year ago in high school) makes you think Kelly will retract his statement and move Patterson to left tackle by mid-week. Correl next to a true freshman seemed aggressively bold and now without Fisher it seems suicidal.

Even with Carmody, the line continued to struggle opening up running lanes. The fact that Patterson, Madden, and Lugg haven’t looked very good from the center through the right side is a huge, huge disappointment too. Everything just seems really off with the line as a whole and it’s entered nightmare territory. They could really use a bye week except Purdue comes to town in a week.

Even a tiny speck of Heisman love is dead now for Kyren Williams who musters just 5 successful carries against a MAC defense. Outside of his 43-yard touchdown scamper, Williams totaled just 35 yards on 15 carries. The speed of Chris Tyree (now up to only 43 total rushing yards through 2 games) is totally neutralized. Thankfully, the top Irish tailbacks (88 combined receiving yards) are getting it done in the passing game.

With Coan under center, this feels a lot like the 2010 inaugural Brian Kelly offense at Notre Dame. There are good running backs, really good playmakers at the skill positions overall with an elite tight end, except the difference is the 2021 line is having way more blocking problems and things are going to sputter quite often.

It’s a pretty terrible time to have a relatively immobile quarterback like Coan (6 sacks allowed paired with this run game is not a long-term successful strategy) which makes me feel personally bad for him. It’s possible he’ll get more comfortable, go through reads quicker, and allow fewer pressures by getting the ball out earlier leading to a more explosive passing game but that feels increasingly optimistic right now.

Rushing Success

Williams – 5 of 16 (31.2%)
Tyree – 3 of 7 (42.8%)
Coan – 1 of 2 (50.0%)
Buchner – 5 of 7 (71.4%)

I was utterly flabbergasted that Tyler Buchner came into the game at the 4-yard line no less, and proceeded to play as much as he did. Do we have a quarterback controversy on our hands??

It’s hard not to see how much Buchner loosens up the run game, though. He had successful 1st down runs of 26, 12, 11, and 7 yards while Kyren’s 43-yard score (also on 1st down) came on Buchner’s 1st series. The rest of the 1st down carries went for a miniscule 29 yards on 14 carries. It was a MAC defense and opponents will throw in adjustments, of course. But it’ll really make the coaching staff think a lot about the future and how Buchner opens up the playbook on the ground.

Either way, you have to be ecstatic about Buchner’s debut (146 total yards on 10 plays) where he looked far from overwhelmed, in command of his assignments, and maybe most of all an indication the staff know he’s The Future sooner rather than later.

Will Buchner eventually take this job? I doubt it, at least not until late in the season. The grim reality is that Coan may eventually get too dinged up or outright injured with this offensive line and I wouldn’t be surprised if that happens Pyne gets the nod to start. Yet, Buchner certainly seems in line to play a lot this year.

I went ahead and handed out not-terrible grades to everyone outside of the offensive line. The receivers are doing well (12 receptions on 19 targets) with everyone in the 2-deep catching a pass, including the first-career receptions for Lorenzo Styles and Deion Colzie. Michael Mayer is up to 16 catches for 201 yards and 3 touchdowns on the season and continues to thrive. The backs are basically shuffling their feet and internally panicking without much room to run which sucks for them because we know they are very talented and being wasted.

You really can’t have a pick six and your captain running back fumbling with 3:26 remaining sitting on a 2-point lead, though.

Defense

For me, the defense comes out of this close win in much better shape and a sneaky good rebound from the 4th quarter disaster at Florida State. We still saw some weirdness like defensive end Isaiah Foskey lined up at middle linebacker and insanely safe prevent looks on 3rd down but the scheme as a whole felt more solid against Toledo.

Obviously, the big plays given up continue to trouble this group. The Rockets 4 biggest plays went for 182 yards and the Irish have to button this up especially when the offense is having its own issues.

Still, the other 59 plays for Toledo went for just 171 yards or 2.89 yards per play. The stuff rate was tremendous, there were 5 sacks and 11 tackles for loss, and the Rockets’ success rate on the ground was really quite poor.

The Irish also stiffened big time in the red zone (Toledo settled for field goals on 3 of 4 trips) and if they found a little bit more luck with the flags (the Rockets had 3 first downs via penalty) and Hamilton’s interception was upheld this could’ve looked like a much different ballgame. I don’t think it takes much squinting to see a 49-17 type of score with people feeling good about the defense if only the Irish offensive line wasn’t in shambles.

DL: B+
LB: C+
DB: C-

The tackling was so much better, too. Is that a product of playing a much more inferior opponent than Florida State’s offensive skill players? That Seminole’s speed wasn’t there which naturally leads to better angles from Irish tacklers.

One issue for me is that Toledo had too many successful short-to-intermediate completions with 9 first down throws from just 19 completions overall. That’s a touch nit-picky, I know. Toledo really wasn’t doing much on the ground and this really kept their offense from completely shutting down.

Stuffs vs. Toledo

Bertrand – 6.5
Jayson Ademilola – 3
Hamilton – 2
MTA – 2
Foskey – 2
Justin Ademilola – 2
Pryor – 1
White – 1
Hart – 1
Bauer – 0.5

J.D. Bertrand looks like a Joe Schmidt clone in his uniform but was a menace on the field grabbing the game ball from Kelly after 11 tackles, 6.5 stuffs, 1 sack, 3 tackles for loss, and a fumble recovery.

Still, the linebacker corps as a whole seems really ineffectual right now. For the second straight game, the Rover spot didn’t do much and even Drew White (just 1 tackle!??) was super quiet. This scheme continually sends these guys towards the line of scrimmage and they’ve got to find a way to make more plays. The defensive line seems to carrying things up front and if they have a bad day I fear what that’ll look like for the linebackers.

The same thing goes for the secondary through 2 games. K.J. Wallace takes a terrible angle and Kyle Hamilton misses a tackle leading to a combined 133 yards of offense for Toledo (37.6% of their total offense against Notre Dame) and you’re just not sure about what this group is going to do against some of the better quarterbacks and offenses remaining on the schedule.

Final Thoughts

I was struck by how calm Toledo head coach Jason Candle and his entire team were inside Notre Dame Stadium with a real chance to win. As much as anything, this kept bothering me as it looked like they weren’t worried at all about being beaten while exuding plenty of confidence. They should win a lot of games in the MAC.

You absolutely have to give it up to the Irish quarterbacks who acted about as perfect as you can expect given the situation. I’m including Drew Pyne who showed visible happiness for Coan and Buchner’s success while likely contemplating he may soon be 3rd string. I also loved Coan’s giddiness and appreciation on the sidelines for Buchner’s big plays, too. This seems like a really great quarterback room from a maturity standpoint–and while I loathe a 2-quarterback system–they all seem prepared to deal with it as best as you can expect.

We have a 100% success rate on game-winning drives when Coan dislocates his finger, so that’s cool.

During the off-season we saw promotional photos and recruits donning these hideous flesh gold and blue leg and arm sleeves. After the Florida State game, I thought we may not see them on the field but MTA and Lenzy had them on against Toledo. They are so ugly.

Bad leg sleeves.

Thoughts on the broadcast via Peacock? I figured I was about 2 plays and/or 90 seconds behind the live action which caused me to basically step away from our Slack chat and Twitter until there was a long stop in the action and I could catch up with everyone’s comments and analysis. I realize many people still watch games like it’s 1986 but for many of us that coordinated digital interaction with our community is kind of why we’re doing this in the first place, right?

Tip of the cap to Drew Brees who provided a really good first game as color commentator alongside Mike Tirico. If there’s a criticism to be made the halftime show on the field with 2 alums in Jack Collinsworth and Corey Robinson feels a little too cringe and full of nepotism for my taste.

Despite being calm as cucumbers, Toledo really had way too many boneheaded penalties that hurt their team and gave Notre Dame 4 free first downs. They also had a personal foul (did we ever see it?) after Notre Dame re-took the lead to push them back to their own 13-yard line of a touchback. Their quarterback Dequan Finn would’ve been wise to slide down near the goal line after he broke free for a touchdown with 1:35 remaining while trailing by 2 points. The Irish only had 1 timeout and Toledo could’ve run the clock all the way down before a chip-shot field goal.

I thought it was pretty cool that the offense started out with a completion to Avery Davis after he wasn’t targeted at all against Florida State and they finished with a Davis pass to Kyren Williams for the 2-point conversion.

It looks like the Irish are stuck in a no-man’s land with this Freeman defensive scheme a little bit. Everyone thought Freeman would adjust his scheme to the players but when the Rover name wasn’t changed I had fears. Now that Kiser seems like a ghost and Xavier Watts had to be moved to the position it makes me think Freeman doesn’t know what to do. We’re seeing similarities from his Cincinnati days with the center being covered all the time, more 3-man fronts, good DL play, and more Cover-1 but he relied heavily on 5 defensive backs with Sniper Jarell White being a complete menace near the line of scrimmage. The Irish continue to predominantly keep a 3rd linebacker on the field whether it’s Kiser or Pryor and they are not filling a similar role at all. Plus, I never saw Freeman move defensive end Myjai Sanders to inside linebacker like he’s doing occasionally with Isaiah Foskey so I don’t know what that’s all about.

Big old yikes to the attendance in the stadium for this game. I know we can still chalk a lot of this up to Covid and I’m sure not a ton of people were excited about a home opener against Toledo. It’s another brick in the wall where the overall capacity gets reduced in the future, in my opinion.

Here are the single-game lowest rushing yards for Notre Dame;s offense since 2017 began:

44 – Clemson, 2020
46 – Georgia, 2019
47 – Michigan, 2019
55 – Georgia, 2017
65 – FSU, 2021
80 – Pitt, 2018
88 – Clemson, 2018

Where things stand today, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Wisconsin and Cincinnati games top this list. Without some improvement, Notre Dame may struggle for 50 combined yards on the ground against the Badgers and Bearcats. And they’ll likely lose both games.