Welcome back to the 18Stripes G5 Top 10. Despite the fun day across the college football landscape, the Group of 5 stayed relatively tame in comparison.
Also Considered: Houston, Nevada, Air Force, UAB, Army
Week 6 Recap
Movers and Shakers
Starting tonight with the biggest upset in the Group of 5 world. Five days after I officially have the Cougars jump Coastal Carolina for the second slot, they turn around and get knocked off by Boise State at home. Unlike their meeting the season prior, the Cougars could not get their running game going against Boise. The turning point of the game was the final 8 minutes of the first half. The Broncos forced two fumbles, got a turnover on downs, and scored 17 points to go up 20-10 at the half. The Boise running game killed the clock and forced the Cougars’ hand. They were unable to comeback and Boise State got their defining win of the season thus far. BYU fell to #7, just behind App State. I think App State has a better chance to get higher in the CFP rankings if they win out than BYU but App State’s game this week will help or hurt its case.
With Coastal now firmly in the two spot again, I had a conundrum on my hands for the third spot. San Diego State, in their 31-7 victory over New Mexico, looked dominant on defense. They also leaned heavily on the run game to grind out the game. I’m not sure their way of winning is sustainable, but then again they have knocked off Utah and Arizona using this type of play, so I’m not sure. SMU, on the other hand, struggled mightily with Navy, going down two scores early in the second quarter. The Ponies came back and tied it before the half, and won 31-24, but the Midshipmen made them earn it. Some turnover luck made this game close, but I worry about the Mustangs unable to move as easily against the Midshipmen as they will have to against the better teams in their schedule.
Finally, we have the Roadrunners (Meep Meep). UTSA won a shootout with Western Kentucky 54-46. This type of game seems to be the MO for WKU; all gas no brakes. I was pleased to see UTSA outscore this offense, showing the merit in their 6-0 start. Plus, with their backs against the wall towards the end of the game, the Roadrunners kept WKU to only 3 points on the last two possessions of the game. UTSA remains the runaway favorite to win C-USA, with UAB the only team close at this moment to passing them. Looking at three resumes, I think the SDSU win over Utah (who may win the Pac-12 South) is the best win out all of the major wins, which became the tiebreaker. Then UTSA has a clearer path to winning their conference, with SMU having to face Cincinnati twice and needing to win both to have a case.
Finally this may be the last time we see a MAC team in the top ten for a while. That’s the case after Western Michigan fell to Ball State 45-20. The score does not indicate how close this game truly was. The Broncos and Cardinals offenses were firing on all cylinders early, getting to a 20-17 lead for WMU. However, the Cardinals and QB Drew Plitt took over. He hit two TDs within five minutes and Ball State never looked back. Western was the victim of a 4-0 turnover difference, two of those leading to the aforementioned TD passes for Plitt. Western still has to face Kent State and Toledo in consecutive weeks and have a resurgent Northern Illinois to end the season, but I think they are the most complete MAC team.
Top Teams Wraparound
Playoff Watch is in full effect after this weekend. Before the carnage of Alabama and Penn State losing, Cincinnati made quick work of Temple, never sweating much in a 52-3 victory. Coastal also took care of business, albeit not as easily as Cincinnati. The Chants took care of Butch Jones led Arkansas State 52-20. Finally, Malik Willis and Liberty ran and threw all over Middle Tennessee State. I’m personally on cruise control with Liberty until their final stretch of Ole Miss, Louisiana, and Army. Malik Willis is really good and his plays continue to amaze me every week.
Week 7 Preview
Headliners
Fun Belt is back. Tomorrow (or today depending on when you’re reading this), we’ll have Sun Belt action. The first game is a doozy. The third ranked top ten matchup of the season, we see App State have their first test since hosting Marshall. They go to Louisiana. Louisiana, after their win over South Alabama, seems a pretty safe bet to meet either App State or Coastal Carolina. App State needs to win this game to keep their Sun Belt chances as open as possible. A loss here for the Mountaineers essentially means App State needs to win out to make the Sun Belt Championship.
The other headliner, and probably a headliner until further notice, is Cincinnati. They host UCF, in what most (including myself) assumed would be a bigger deal coming into the season. However, the Knights have struggled post Gabriel, and the Cincinnati defense is unforgiving and unrelenting. To be honest, this game potentially could still be a game College Gameday would go to, but they have to go to Georgia to see them spank Kentucky. I think Cincinnati will continue to roll, with myself looking forward to their game with SMU.
Conference Highlights
Navy @ Memphis (American): I think I was wrong about Memphis this season. I thought they would be where SMU is at this point in the season. At 3-3, Memphis needs to survive the now chaos-inducing Navy at home.
Western Kentucky @ Old Dominion (C-USA): With Marshall seemingly taking a step back this season, the C-USA East seems to be wide open, with the Western Kentucky offense seemingly the best opportunity to take it over. They’ve shown they can score on Michigan State and UTSA in the last couple of weeks and I think they can use that to roll through their schedule.
Kent State @ Western Michigan (MAC): Kent State is now the SP+ favorite to come out of the MAC East and Dustin Crum looks to continue his roll over a quality Western Michigan. I know I said this a couple of weeks ago, but this feels like a potential MAC Championship Game preview.
Air Force @ Boise State (Mountain West): This game could either be a close nail biter or a blowout; depending on which Boise State team shows up. Both of these teams have one loss in conference and with Air Force holding the tiebreaker over Wyoming, this game is crucial for the Falcons. This may be the last game Boise lose in conference, trying to get back to the MWC Championship.
Troy @ Texas State (Sun Belt): In our weekly look into the underbelly of the other teams of the Sun Belt I want to talk about Texas State. They knocked off South Alabama in a 2 point contest 4OT game, putting them out of contention for a potential Louisiana spoiler in the Sun Belt West.
Top Teams Roundup
We have some interesting games with some of our independents. BYU is going into Baylor in a game they could probably win and get back on the winning side of the ball. The other is much more intriguing than I thought it would be in the preseason. Army goes into Camp Randall to play Wisconsin. I think this game will probably be close if the Wisconsin offense continues to struggle and Army can move the ball. Liberty also takes a trip to Louisiana to take on the Sun Belt doormat UL-Monroe.
Elsewhere in Group of 5 land, Fresno State and San Diego State have key tests in conference; taking trips to Wyoming and San Jose State respectively. UTSA takes on in-state C-USA opponent Rice, which should be an easy victory for the Roadrunners. Finally, UAB, trying to keep pace with UTSA, hosts Southern Miss.
That’s all I have for you all today! Sound off below on any of the games from Saturday or the ones coming up this week!