Welcome back to the latest edition of America’s favorite question and answer segment from 18 Stripes. Today, we’ll tackle the sudden coaching vacancy at TCU, the Heisman race, how the initial playoff rankings will be handled, plus a look at a pair of forlorn head coaches at major programs.
1) The Heisman race is heating up with Michigan State running back Kenneth Walker’s big weekend vaulting himself into the discussion. Who is your favorite to take the award?
The latest BetMGM odds have the following top 6 players:
QB Bryce Young +190
QB Matt Corral +275
QB C.J. Stroud +450
RB Kenneth Walker +500
QB Caleb Williams +850
QB Kenny Pickett +1100
I’m a little surprised at the Corral odds given the Rebels just suffered their 2nd loss this weekend. Although Corral was banged up and missed some time he lost an opportunity for a big win, the Ole Miss finishing schedule doesn’t offer many opportunities for him as they’ve already lost to Alabama, and now they’re unlikely to make the SEC Championship. He kind of feels like a cross off to me.
Ditto for Kenny Pickett who has put up Heisman numbers this year and could still guide his team to an ACC title, but the Panthers lost their 2nd game of the season over the weekend and were already carrying a loss to a MAC team on the resume anyway. Cross him off.
Since we can’t give the award to Georgia’s defense the only other people I’d consider as longshots remaining would be Desmond Ridder at Cincinnati, Sam Hartman at Wake Forest, and maybe Anthony Brown at Oregon. Each of those players needs to put up bigger numbers and never lose until after conference championship week.
Heisman favorite?
Obviously, you have to like Young taking it home if they run the table and beat Georgia. I thought he’d be more of a running threat this season (40 yards!??) but if they topple the No. 1 Dawgs you have to come up with some wild scenarios where the Heisman isn’t Young’s to take.
I really like Stroud’s odds, though. The Buckeyes finish with Michigan State and Michigan which will give him a high-profile chance to impress (and knock Walker out of contention) and he put up huge numbers in Ohio State’s only loss, too.
Caleb Williams is intriguing but would they really give it someone who effectively missed 5 games? Plus, the Sooners’ schedule has not been great this year even though Williams gets a high-profile run-in with some big games coming up.
2) Gary Patterson shocked the country by stepping down effective immediately after 20 years at TCU. What is his legacy with the Horned Frogs and what does this job look like for the future with the changing landscape in the Big 12?
Man, Patterson literally is modern TCU football so this is a momentous change for their program. Before his arrival as head coach they were mostly known as the former SWC program that had fallen on hard times but had LaDainian Tomlinson for a few years. Patterson now leaves town with 11 seasons finishing ranked, 11 seasons with at least 10 wins, and 2 major bowl wins.
I don’t think the fit would’ve been anything close to perfect–and all indications are he was never seriously considered by Swarbrick–but I loved Patterson to Notre Dame in those 2008-09 years when it became clear Charlie Weis was on his way out. TCU was on fire then, blending Patterson’s aggressive spread-stopping defense with cool and innovative spread offense hires. They went 47-5 from 2008-11 with that big Rose Bowl victory while utterly dominating the Mountain West.
Things haven’t been great since moving to the Big 12 outside of that brief 2014-15 renaissance which included the weird tie-breaker that saw TCU finish No. 3 in the country without winning their conference. It seemed like the game was passing Patterson by lately, which happens and is totally normal! I’d noticed they lost comfortably to Kansas State this weekend and actually wondered what was going on and here we are with him being pushed out the door with a likely 4-8 season about to finish.
Moving forward, this is a pretty enticing job, no? Soon you’ll no longer be competing directly against Texas and Oklahoma and even with the new additions coming to the league there’s already a strong legacy built by Patterson to keep TCU among the league favorites. Plus, the recruiting locale for the Frogs will remain a big strength and there’s enough money and support surrounding the program.
3) Things have fallen apart very quickly for Dabo Swinney at Clemson. Is this more of a blip on the radar or something more concerning for the long-term?
I’ve often believed that there’s a type of magic and program momentum that follows coaches around and at any point that blessing can be ripped away. What we’re witnessing right now looks an awful lot like Dabo has lost a lot of his mojo, and truthfully, he seems built to handle a downturn extremely poorly after looking like he was God’s gift to the coaching world.
He’s been a great front-runner, there’s no doubt. At one point Dabo’s personality infected everything at Clemson positively but as the wins continued to pile up he became ever more jaded and aggrieved with even smallest petty issues surrounding his team.
Comeuppance coming?
The ACC has been so bad for so long though and it’s hard to see Swinney not climbing back up the mountain starting next year, especially given their recruiting. I think it’s fair to question whether they’ll ever reach the peaks of the Watson/Lawrence years and really who can do that consistently? Yet, somewhere in the back of my mind I do wonder if things will collapse super quickly with Dabo being his own worst enemy going down in flames.
4) Is it a hot take to say that people are overreacting to Michigan’s loss this past weekend and the hotness of Jim Harbaugh’s seat in Ann Arbor?
Am I a bad person if I say yes? It does seem like Harbaugh has entered this phase where any loss brings on a pile of scrutiny and typically that’s never a good place to be for a program. I’m also constantly surprised at how long he’s been at Michigan (7th year, where did the time go!??) and so far he’s weathered some pretty serious storms in his tenure. The dude has never beaten Ohio State with an average margin of defeat of 19 points and he’s still hanging around.
I guess it depends on how you look at it–if you thought this was a Big Ten winning Michigan team in 2021 yeah you’re going to be disappointed. But, if your expectations were lower you can still envision a finish to the season where the Wolverines go 10-2 and line up in a pretty attractive and winnable bowl game. That’s even better if they are competitive with Ohio State in their second loss.
Harbaugh’s contract is also super favorable for Michigan right now, too. His base salary has been lowered a ton and his buyout continues to shrink to peanuts as it approaches the final year in 2025. I’m sure many Michigan fans feel like they’re just playing out the string with Harbaugh and if so the school has virtually no financial impediments to finding his successor. It’s not the worst place to be in for a team right now, it’s not like they’re 3-5 with $18 million owed in a buyout.
Sadly for me, Michigan is fine. Harbaugh’s had enough time to prove he doesn’t have what it takes to move them up into the upper-echelon of college football and at some point he’ll get fired.
5) Will Cincinnati be in the top 4 of tonight’s initial College Football Playoff rankings?
I would be surprised if they weren’t based on how this season has evolved and past precedent with the playoff committee. I went back and looked at all of the initial playoff rankings and found this info:
*22 out of the 28 teams in the AP Poll that week also debuted in the initial playoff poll.
*11 out of the last 12 in the top 4 of the AP Poll that week made it into the initial playoff poll since 2018. Is there a trend?
*Of the 6 teams to be in the AP top 4 but not in the initial CFP poll, 4 teams dropped by 3 spots or more (this part is worrisome for Cincinnati):
2019, Clemson – 4th in AP and 5th in CFP
2017, Ohio State – 3rd in AP and 6th in CFP
2017, Wisconsin – 4th in AP and 9th in CFP
2016, Washington – 4th in AP and 5th in CFP
2015, Baylor – 2nd in AP and 6th in CFP
2014, Alabama – 3rd in AP and 6th in CFP
Cincinnati currently sits 2nd in the AP Poll, for reference.
In my opinion, the committee has made it an emphasis to mirror the AP but I also believe the AP has slightly altered their style of voting to mirror the more resume-based rankings from the playoff committee. Gone are the days of undefeated teams always being ahead of everyone else. Since the Bearcats are at No. 2 with that Notre Dame win, for now, I think they are in the top 4.
I also think politics do play a part which will initially favor Cincinnati. Everyone knows Cincinnati doesn’t have the opponents remaining to move them up so why not throw them a bone now knowing full well others will have the opportunity to pass them?
Others will argue, why tease them of course! Cincinnati should be worried, though. This sport has always been cruel to Group of 5 programs.
There are 4 undefeated Power 5 programs (Georgia, Oklahoma, Michigan State, Wake Forest) plus a pair of elite blue-bloods (Alabama & Ohio State) ranked high with 1-loss. Cincinnati will likely need carnage to make the playoff anyway but I’ll be watching this initial placement of Michigan State especially, and to a certain extent how the committee ranks Ohio State vs. Oregon, to see if the Bearcats are taken seriously enough to actually pull this off.
Sam Hartman
Still having nightmares.
Also, not for nothin:
https://twitter.com/FightingIrish/status/1455512766555455491?t=EYgpkVNQhNG-phUoGyClDg&s=19
{Edits for I’m too old to properly post a picture}
Turns out Pitt: not for real! Who woulda guessed?
A very good point. Georgia is a lock for #1, I could see it being like:
2) …Michigan St? (top Big10 team of the moment)
3) Oklahoma (unbeaten P5 team, look a lot better with Caleb Williams)
4) Cincy
5) Bama
6/7) Ohio State and Oregon, however they shake that out
Michigan State doesn’t feel like a good #2 team in the country, but they’re the current head of the strong Big10, so that’s a start for them.
Oklahoma at 3 feels kinda unimpressive too, but they haven’t lost yet and if they run the table they will have beaten plenty of good teams and they will make the playoffs.
Then I’m predicting they’ll put Cincy over the 1-loss P5 teams, but whose to say they don’t go with the “uhh can we really put a G5 team over Bama, is this really right?”
Like E says, if the Big 10 and Big 12 both produce undefeated champs, does Cincy get squeezed out if Bama beats UGA in the SECCG? Michigan St. prob isn’t going to run the table, but the more I think on it, the more I find it plausible that Cincy could get overlooked.
There isn’t much of a case to have Oklahoma over Cincinnati at this point. OU doesn’t have any win nearly as good as Cincy’s over us, and they’ve looked just plain mediocre pretty consistently, even with Williams. That could change, but I’d keep the Bearcats ahead until OU does something notable. If you’re asking me, I’d probably go Georgia-MSU-Cincy-Alabama as the top four right now, with Oklahoma in position to jump the Tide if Georgia dispatches them in Atlanta.
I think Cincinnati is in a pretty good spot if they go undefeated. There’s a path to keeping them out at 13-0, mostly revolving around Alabama beating Georgia, but odds are if they win out they’ll get their shot.
Agreed on the win, your use of “at this point” is key. Oklahoma still has OK State and Baylor to go, the Oklahoma overall resume is going to easily outshine Cincy if they get through it, but to be fair, they haven’t gotten through it yet.
I don’t agree agree as much about downplaying Williams, being as he’s at almost 11 Y/A and 14 Td to 1 INT and back to video game numbers for the Oklahoma QB and they just put up 52 on Texas Tech..Which isn’t much competition but shows they’re well past mediocre offensively with the point totals of the last 4 games (55, 52, 35, 52)..
Who knows if that will hold, but I would put a lot in a P5 undefeated as long as it’s not a Wake situation of just being a disaster year. Perhaps the committee will be more favorable to Cincy
MOTS self reply: silly, silly me for even giving G5 any consideration when the committee never will
I stopped caring about the Heisman race as there’s too much focus on QBs while ignoring just about every other position. I understand the importance of QBs, but there are some great players that do not play QB
Cincinnati was not included in the initial top 4:
Can’t wait for tOSU to blow out both Michigans.
It’s pretty clear to me that UC and ND could win out and UC could finish 8th, which is pretty funny if nothing else. I don’t think any of these conflict:
I’m personally in favor of maximum chaos, but the next most entertaining result to maximum chaos is absolutely no chaos. Three 13-0 teams missing the playoffs would be hilarious.
Not to go full conspiracy theory here, but:
1) 12-0 Georgia
2) 12-1 OSU
3) 13-0 Oklahoma
4) 11-1 Notre Dame
5) 13-0 Cincy
6) 11-2 Bama
7) 11-2 Oregon
8) 11-2 Michigan State
9) 12-1 Wake Forest
The country roots for Notre Dame over the final 4 games, hoping we win in dominating fashion, to help UC move up. And ND does just that. The offensive freshmen turn the unit into a legit monster, Kyle comes back and the defense starts shutting down our opponents, everybody reluctantly cheers as we boost UC’s Strength of Schedule. UC goes the opposite direction, winning a few squeakers. Ridder seems to get injured in the final game, and nobody knows quite how serious it is. Using 1993 as precedent, the committee gives the Irish the benefit of the doubt this time, and ND sneaks into the playoff over UC. The entire country looks on in horror.
(Georgia shuts us out in dominating fashion in the playoff opener)
The vindictive part of me that thinks it’s funny how mad everyone gets whenever we make the CFP would laugh, but that would be so spectacularly unfair to Cincinnati.
That could actually happen. Bama may lose in the Iron Bowl, its a tough away game for them. 6 through 9 that you show could actually happen–Wake could even be undefeated and be ranked where you have them.
I’d be perfectly fine with ND getting in over Cinci–or over anyone else, for that matter.
I’d now argue that these rankings come out too early. I get WHY they come out now (#$$$$$), but I don’t know what their objective is. Are these rankings a snapshot of teams on 11/2/21? Or their season to date? Or who will be the best at the end of the season?
Basically no one has played anyone yet. Is this season an outlier? Seems like there’s a lot of back-heavy schedules out there – B1G East, Oklahoma, WF all seem to have their biggest games stuffed in the last few weeks of the season.
Gives ESPN an hour of content and gets people talking about college football on a Tuesday. Just an attention grab and made for TV special, really. No reason these rankings need to come out now, as opposed to last week or next week.
They’re clearly intended to be a snapshot of what the CFP would be if the season stopped right now, but as usual, they mostly make no sense when given further examination.
Yep, its all about money–plus probably has usefulness for the Committee itself to start building an internal narrative that they can adjust as things unfold.