It was a quiet week in college football featuring a lot of teams moving up just one spot in our poll thanks to the Oklahoma loss in Waco. It was a good week for favorites overall which is always less fun for the rankings. But, fear not we should see some more chaos this weekend.
Let’s take a look at the latest Top 20 poll from 18 Stripes.
18 Stripes Top 20 Poll
| RANK | TEAM | RECORD | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Georgia | 10-0 | 41-17 W at Tennessee |
| 2 | Cincinnati | 10-0 | 45-28 W at USF |
| 3 | Alabama (+1) | 9-1 | 59-3 W vs. New Mexico St. |
| 4 | Oregon (+1) | 9-1 | 38-24 W vs. Washington St. |
| 5 | Ohio State (+1) | 9-1 | 59-31 W vs. Purdue |
| 6 | Notre Dame (+1) | 9-1 | 28-3 W at Virginia |
| 7 | Oklahoma State (+1) | 9-1 | 63-17 W vs. TCU |
| 8 | Michigan State (+1) | 9-1 | 40-21 W vs. Maryland |
| 9 | Michigan (+1) | 9-1 | 21-17 W at Penn St. |
| 10 | Wake Forest (+1) | 9-1 | 45-42 W vs. NC St. |
| 11 | Ole Miss (+1) | 8-2 | 29-19 W vs. Texas A&M |
| 12 | Baylor (NR) | 8-2 | 27-14 W vs. Oklahoma |
| 13 | BYU | 8-2 | BYE |
| 14 | Oklahoma (-11) | 9-1 | 27-14 L at Baylor |
| 15 | Wisconsin | 7-3 | 35-7 W vs. Northwestern |
| 16 | UTSA (-2) | 10-0 | 27-17 W vs. Southern Miss |
| 17 | Iowa (-1) | 8-2 | 27-22 W vs. Minnesota |
| 18 | San Diego State (-1) | 9-1 | 23-21 W vs. Nevada |
| 19 | Texas A&M (NR) | 7-3 | 29-19 L at Ole Miss |
| 20 | Pittsburgh (NR) | 8-2 | 30-23 W vs. North Carolina |
Let me lay it out for you to play it out. Here are my top 20 with wins against teams over .500, losses, SP+ rank, FEI rank, and yards per play differential:
#1 Georgia
Wins: 7-3 Arkansas, 7-3 Kentucky, 7-3 Clemson, 7-3 UAB, 6-4 Auburn
SP+ Rank: 1st
FEI Rank: 1st
YPP: +3.01
#2 Cincinnati
Wins: 9-1 Notre Dame, 6-4 UCF
SP+ Rank: 7th
FEI Rank: 10th
YPP: +2.28
#3 Alabama
Wins: 8-2 Ole Miss, 6-4 Miss St.
Losses: 7-3 A&M
SP+ Rank: 3rd
FEI Rank: 2nd
YPP: +2.05
#4 Oregon
Wins: 9-1 Ohio State, 8-3 Fresno, 6-4 UCLA
Losses: 3-7 Stanford
SP+ Rank: 15th
FEI Rank: 17th
YPP: +1.31
#5 Ohio State
Wins: 6-4 Purdue, 6-4 Penn State, 6-4 Minnesota
Losses: 9-1 Oregon
SP+ Rank: 2nd
FEI Rank: 3rd
YPP: +2.94
#6 Notre Dame
Wins: 7-3 Wisconsin, 6-4 Purdue, 6-4 Virginia
Losses: 10-0 Cincinnati
SP+ Rank: 10th
FEI Rank: 11th
YPP: +0.48
#7 Oklahoma State
Wins: 8-2 Baylor, 7-3 Kansas State, 6-4 Boise State
Losses: 6-4 Iowa State
SP+ Rank: 17th
FEI Rank: 7th
YPP: +1.14
#8 Michigan State
Wins: 9-1 Michigan, 6-4 W. Kentucky
Losses: 6-4 Purdue
SP+ Rank: 19th
FEI Rank: 20th
YPP: +1.45
#9 Michigan
Wins: 7-3 Wisconsin, 6-4 Penn State, 7-3 N. Illinois, 6-4 W. Michigan
Losses: 9-1 Michigan State
SP+ Rank: 5th
FEI Rank: 4th
YPP: +1.57
#10 Wake Forest
Wins: 7-3 NC State, 6-4 Virginia, 6-3 Army
Losses: 5-5 North Carolina
SP+ Rank: 36th
FEI Rank: 9th
YPP: +0.58
#11 Ole Miss
Wins: 7-3 Texas A&M, 7-3 Arkansas
Losses: 9-1 Alabama, 6-4 Auburn
SP+ Rank: 17th
FEI Rank: 12th
YPP: +1.01
#12 Baylor
Wins: 9-1 Oklahoma, 8-2 BYU, 6-4 Iowa State
Losses: 9-1 Oklahoma State, 4-6 TCU
SP+ Rank: 14th
FEI Rank: 18th
YPP: +1.61
#13 BYU
Wins: 7-3 Utah, 7-3 Arizona State, 8-2 Utah State, 6-4 Virginia
Losses: 8-2 Baylor, 6-4 Boise State
SP+ Rank: 42nd
FEI Rank: 33rd
YPP: +1.03
#14 Oklahoma
Wins: 7-3 Kansas State, 6-4 Texas Tech
Losses: 8-2 Baylor
SP+ Rank: 12th
FEI Rank: 7th
YPP: +1.20
#15 Wisconsin
Wins: 8-2 Iowa, 6-4 Purdue, 6-3 Army, 6-4 Eastern Michigan
Losses: 9-1 Notre Dame, 9-1 Michigan, 6-4 Penn State
SP+ Rank: 4th
FEI Rank: 5th
YPP: +1.85
#16 UTSA
Wins: 6-4 UTEP, 6-4 Western Kentucky
SP+ Rank: 50th
FEI Rank: 41st
YPP: +1.05
#17 Iowa
Wins: 6-4 Penn State, 6-4 Iowa State, 6-4 Minnesota
Losses: 7-3 Wisconsin, 6-4 Purdue
SP Rank: 24th
FEI Rank: 26th
YPP: +0.18
#18 San Diego State
Wins: 7-3 Utah, 7-3 Air Force, 7-3 Nevada
Losses: 8-3 Fresno State
SP+ Rank: 48th
FEI Rank: 62nd
YPP: +0.56
#19 Texas A&M
Wins: 9-1 Alabama, 6-4 Auburn
Losses: 8-2 Ole Miss, 7-3 Arkansas, 6-4 Miss State
SP+ Rank: 9th
FEI Rank: 8th
YPP: +1.28
#20 Pittsburgh
Wins: 7-3 Clemson
Losses: 5-5 Miami, 6-4 Western Michigan
SP+ Rank: 10th
FEI Rank: 28th
YPP: +1.59
Some brief comments:
*Georgia is a lock for the playoffs absent a shock loss to Georgia Tech in the finale. Or maybe, if Alabama beats them by 20+ points and it’s really ugly. But, I think they’re near sharpie territory for one playoff slot.
*Alabama is in easily with a victory over Georgia and definitely out with a loss. I’ll plant that flag right now. The Tide are not getting in with 2 losses and possibly only 1 win over a team with a better than .500 record.
*If Alabama, Oregon, and Ohio State all win out they’re in the playoffs. In other words, the current top 4 of the College Football Rankings released this week will get in.
*Georgia beating Alabama is great news for Cincinnati. That would likely pit the Bearcats up against the Big 12 Champion. Right now, the strongest competition being Oklahoma State who could add a win over Oklahoma and then likely Baylor in the Big 12 Championship. Would you put a 12-1 Oklahoma State over undefeated Cincinnati? The committee probably would do that.
*If Cincinnati were to lose, you can pretty much replace the Bearcats with Notre Dame in their place vs. the Big 12 Champion. The playoffs are a very real reality for Notre Dame and that is kind of weird given our resume. But, I don’t think we’ll come close to jumping 12-1 Oklahoma State in the above scenario.
*If the Irish don’t make the playoffs, the odds of facing Michigan in a major bowl game are trending in a favorable way. Holy hell, buckle up if that happens.
OUT: Houston, Purdue, Auburn
Houston becomes one of the rare teams not to lose (they beat Temple 37-8) and fall out of our top 20 rankings. Such is life in the Group of 5, I’m afraid. Especially later in the season.
Purdue gave up 624 yards to Ohio State as my pick for C.J. Stroud to get the Heisman looks a little better with only 2 weeks to go.
Auburn coughed up a 28-3 lead (Falcons fans look away!) over Mississippi State only to lose by 9 points and Bo Nix is done for the year. Double ouch.
Week 12 Games to Watch
Last Week: 4-4
Overall: 42-33
Oregon (+3) at Utah
Our week of all road dogs begins with the Pac-12 favorite Oregon Ducks playing the first of 2 games against Utah (assuming the Utes take care of Colorado next week) as they’re on schedule to meet in the Pac-12 Championship. Tough call here between a difficult road venue for Oregon versus playoff drama continuing for another week. Let the drama continue. Ducks win 32-28.
SMU (+12) at Cincinnati
The SMU offense can probably hang with the stout Cincinnati defense for a while and if the Bearcats have a bad day on on offense (as they’re want to do sometimes) this could go down to the wire. The flip side to that is SMU’s defense has been pretty leaky against the better AAC teams and that could prove costly. Bearcats win 29-23.
Michigan State (+19) at Ohio State
This is the week where we all realize what we know in our hearts, Michigan State is not that good. I think this goes poorly for them in Columbus. Buckeyes win 44-19.
Iowa State (+4) at Oklahoma
I’m looking at the math and I believe another Iowa State win in Norman would pretty much knock Oklahoma out of the running to win the Big 12. They’d need to win a tie among teams with 2 losses and it wouldn’t be very promising due to that Baylor loss. I think they can bounce back for a win, though. Sooners win 52-40.
Wake Forest (+3.5) at Clemson
Whoa, check out Clemson at a sneaky decent 7-3 and favored against Wake Forest! I’ve felt this loss coming from the Demon Deacons for quite some time. This opens the door to a potential 3-way tie for the ACC Atlantic and Clemson making the league championship. Tigers win 30-28.
Arkansas (+20.5) at Alabama
The Hogs took a win out of Death Valley last week thanks to one of the best field goals in recent memory. It’ll be very hard to come down from that high and enter Tuscaloosa on the right foot. Alabama is also looking to impress voters. Crimson Tide win 39-16.
Virginia (+14) at Pitt
This line would suggest that quarterback Brennan Armstrong is not playing once again. Or maybe, he suits up and isn’t very effective. Either way, a Pitt win here locks up an appearance in the ACC Championship Game for the 2nd time in 4 seasons. Pat Narduzzi stock going up, baby! Panthers win 38-10.
If OSU and Alabama both win out, is there not a case for OSU to be rated above Alabama? OSU will pick up wins over MSU, Michigan & probably Wisconsin. Alabama will get wins over Auburn & UGA. #QualityLoss of Oregon is much better than aTm & that +1.0 YPP differential is pretty substantial.
Arguably, yes. Ohio State’s resume will be a lot deeper.
But, beating Georgia….
That being said, if Alabama DOES beat UGA, UGA’s resume isn’t looking spectacular: 7-3 Arkansas, 7-3 Kentucky, 7-3 Clemson, 7-3 UAB, 6-4 Auburn. Which of those teams would a team like ND struggle with? Granted, watching UGA play tells a much different story, as they do appear to be able to beat anyone.
ND would struggle with Akransas and Kentucky for sure. Their D Lines would destroy our O Line, even with all of the progress we’ve made so far this season. Not saying we would lose, but Georgia beat those teams a combined 67-13. We would not do that.
Competitive game? Sure. “Struggle”? I don’t know. ND wouldn’t beat Arkansas 37-0 like Georgia did, totally, but we all know ND isn’t on UGA’s level. If Auburn can beat Arkansas by 15 points and put up 38 on them, their d-line isn’t that dominant. Maybe September ND would have struggled with them, but November ND with quicker throws and all would be alright, IMO.
That said, even if Bama beats UGA, Georgia is still a quality team that has a decent resume of opponents, but an overwhelming resume with how UGA has pretty much destroyed everyone to this point. So that’s deservedly way more impressive at 11-1 than what a 11-1 ND has done.
UGA would be 12-1 in that scenario with one of those wins being against sub .500 FCS Charleston Southern, which counts as a top 25 win automatically since it’s an extra data point.
Wow our YPP stands out.
And that’s with it trending in a much better direction the last couple games!
I’d put OSU ahead of us.
And I’d probably put Michigan ahead of us (vomit), but I wouldn’t rank them ahead of MSU, who I definitely wouldn’t rank ahead of us. Hmm.
Vomit indeed, but I think we’re really really similar to Michigan this year. I have no idea who would win that hypothetical bowl matchup. Hopefully we won’t find out.
I do think we match up very well with Michigan. I tend to think they are a slightly better team, but might take us in a game because of our strengths.
Same. I’d probably guess something like ND 38-35.
I hate to say it, but Harbaugh does seem to have fixed a lot of Michigan’s considerable schematic issues. We’ll see if he’s fixed their mental/cultural issues in the Ohio State game.
Wow, that’s high scoring. I’d be guessing like 27-24ish, maybe even down a few points on each side. Lots of running the ball, game would probably be decided if Notre Dame could stop their running game, or not. They have 2 really good backs.
Hopefully in December White and Bertrand would be able to heal up a bit. I like ND’s chances a lot better on Jan 1 then if the game was played on Dec 1 (which, of course, it would not be played then).
Maybe it’s just me but I’d rather play ACC in Peach then face a Big 10 team in the Fiesta for this ND team. 11-2 with a long off-season of dropping another NY6 would be tough, doubly so if it was a Michigan team or tOSU.
Give me the worst team possible in any bowl game. Generally, that will be ACC.
SP+ puts the spread at Skunkbears -4.5, Sagarin at ND -0.5. I don’t know how to calculate spreads off FEI and FPI, but based on the ratings I would guess FEI would predict something close to what SP+ says and FPI would be more around Skunkbears -10 – FPI is higher on Michigan and lower on ND than the other models.
FWIW, in the five games after Cincinnati we’re at +1.3 ypp, which is much more squarely in the second tier of teams. And we faced two very good offenses in there – UNC is currently 4th in SP+ offense and USC, before Drake London went down, was roughly around 15th. Our raw numbers over those five games are 6.6 yards per play (good) and 5.3 yards per play allowed (okay).
That shift is basically due solely to the offense getting better – the defense allowed 5.33 yards per play in the first five games and 5.28 per play in the second five.
What if Bama loses to Georgia and Oregon trips up (wouldn’t be shocking in the least)?
That would put the Bearcats in together with big 12 champ with 1 loss.
It would take the big 12 champ with 2 losses or a Cinci loss (in addition to the above) for ND to get in then, no?
Who would be in the big 12 champ game against the winner of Okie st and Okl? Would Baylor sneak in there? Or would it be a rematch? A 2 loss champ here is far from unlikely.
The winner of Bedlam is in as they should only have 1 loss in conference.
Baylor beat OU, so if the Sooners lose Bedlam they lose the tie-breaker with Baylor. If Oklahoma State loses Bedlam they’d hold the tie-break over Baylor for beating the Bears back in week 5. So we’d see a repeat of Bedlam.
Assuming no other upsets, of course.
Well that’s why the winner of bedlam wouldn’t necessarily be in because they have to win again the next week for the big 12 champ. And it seems to me Baylor could beat Ok. St or Ok. St could beat Okl even after losing to them the previous week.
Sorry, I meant “in” as the league title game.
ahh got it. makes sense.
in stewart mandels mailbag today he said the rose bowl would select the highest ranked team assuming ohio state made the playoff which certainly seems like it would be michigan. so nd would draw michigan state (if they beat penn state) or I guess any other team if they dont
And I took that personally.
PJ Groupof5-han
He’s just fixing his error from last week, when he forgot to include A&M. Except, A&M got “better” by losing this week? #BartaIsEricEricIsBarta
Me: Explains why A&M wasn’t ranked last week.
You:
Much like the college playoff committee, sometimes you have to set aside what happens on the field
I’ve noticed there haven’t been any articles penned by Eric posted to the site during when Playoff Rankings come out. Coincidence? #BartaIsEricEricIsBarta
I did jump A&M from 54th in my rankings to 19th, so I can see how this would seem weird.
A&M’s 2 other defeats look better now! Oh, but THIS WEEK we want to start talking about losses and not just best wins!?
You can’t appreciate a team jumping into your rankings after a 10 point loss as odd?
No, not really. Not when it’s just a few spots.
The other teams I looked at (Arkansas/Utah/NC State/Miss St) for the end of the rankings I didn’t think deserved it more nor was there a big push from 2 or 3-loss teams to keep the Aggies out this week.
A&M played pretty well and hung in there against a better team. But wait, I picked A&M! Yeah, I don’t rearrange rankings based off my weekly picks that would be utterly stupid.
Everyone seems to cry themselves to sleep that the committee may not be reevaluating the teams enough each week, well, I dunno I’d like to think I am and in this week’s scenario a team moved up a tiny bit after losing.
BTW, are you arguing I forgot about A&M last week or not?
Last week I thought you forgot about A&M – this week I think you’re trolling us.
That would be too much time and effort.
I just assume you’re in your Scrooge McDuck-style vault, sitting on a raft atop 18S subscription fees, twiddling your mustache and guffawing with each keystroke.
Fun take from an ND podcast:
tOSU takes care of Michigan and Michigan State, then loses to Wisconsin in B1g final
Oregon loses at least one of two to Utah
Okie Lite loses again
Alabama beats UGA
Cincy and ND win out
And we get Georgia/Alabama/Cincy/Notre Dame, which means only ONE power 5 conference gets represented in the playoffs.
Hello, expanded playoff!
Even better, Alabama loses close to Georgia instead, and Wake loses in ACC championship game.
Then we get Georgia/Cincy/ND/Bama. Hello, two loss, non-conference champ ‘Bama!
The last option would far and away be my preference. I do NOT, under any circumstances, want to be the 4 seed in this years playoffs.
How about Cincy loses, and then we get…another two loss team with ND as the two seed!
Would be super fun to have Georgia/ND/Bama/tOSU, then it’s TWO two loss conference runner ups!!!
Pete Sampson has written in his most recent article that our best possible scenario (which is probably least likely to happen) is for Oregon to win out, which combined with some other factors could result in us facing them in the 2/3 game. I think it requires chaos in the XII and B1G (wisconsin winning the B1G)
When you put the numbers up there like that… actually maybe the Committee is right to put Michigan over Michigan State?
Yeah. I think UM is pretty clearly the better team. But when teams are next to each other in the rankings, then you HAVE to give the head-to-head the edge.
Exactly. Otherwise what would be the point of playing the games?
We had a nice argument about this in the writer’s Slack this week.