What makes a down cycle at a certain position? I was curious because you often hear that one position or another are strong or weak for the year but we usually don’t see a lot of talk about the numbers behind things. So, let’s talk about some of them.

So far we’ve covered the offensive side of the ball. Today, we’ll begin taking a look at the defense.

Note: I compiled these numbers in mid-May right before 247 added the On3 rankings into their Composite. So, the numbers in these articles will be a little off compared to the live rankings you can now research. I am only looking at blue-chip recruits with their Composite scores.

We’ll be looking at the mean, median, and percent of blue-chips at each position between 2023 and 2022, with a comparison to the 2010 cycle, as well.

247 Composite scores used throughout. 

EDGE

Mean
2023: 0.9382
2022: 0.9369
2010: 0.9332

Median
2023: 0.9324
2022: 0.9292
2010: 0.9256

Blue-Chip Percent
2023: 7.63%
2022: 8.07%
2010: 13.25%

The first thing that jumps out is combining weak-side defensive end and strong-side defensive end in the past led to a lot more blue-chip prospects than the way players are currently being evaluated. Almost a doubling of 4 and 5-stars from 2023 back to 2010 is really crazy.

For example, in the current 2023 Edge rankings only 3 out of the 35 blue-chips are 250 lbs. or heavier, and just 1 out of the top 32. That’s compared to 14 out of the 23 blue-chip strong-side ends from 2010 being 250 lbs. or heavier. The no. 2 SDE from 2010, Sharrif Floyd from Florida, was 6’3″ and 310 pounds! He very much did not play on the edge in Gainesville.

Notre Dame has to feel pretty good about 2023 looking a little stronger overall than last cycle and having the top edge recruit in the nation committed to the Irish.

DEFENSIVE LINE

Mean
2023: 0.9315
2022: 0.9355
2010: 0.9282

Median
2023: 0.9291
2022: 0.9271
2010: 0.9193

Blue-Chip Percent
2023: 12.89%
2022: 12.50%
2010: 8.06%

Since there are fewer edge rushers today we’ve seen the defensive line category increase their percentage of blue chip prospects. This position can be a little more vague as it includes War Daddy nose guards, 3-tech defensive tackles, and bigger guys who play defensive end in high school but will move inside in college. As such, I would’ve expected the mean and median to be a little higher than back in 2010.

The last two cycles have been really close. Last year, the 2nd, 4th, and 9th overall prospects in the nation came from defensive line so it was much more top heavy. The current 2023 cycle is a little deeper with higher Composite scores throughout the back half of the blue-chip players.

Notre Dame did a good job grabbing Tyson Ford last cycle (no. 17 DL) in addition to Brenan Vernon (no. 12 DL), Boubacar Traore (no. 18 DL), and Devan Houston (no. 32 DL) for 2023 so far. No doubt, 2024 was going to be a huge focus for elite talent and commit Brandon Davis-Swain is currently the no. 64 overall prospect and no. 7 at his position.

LINEBACKER

Mean
2023: 0.9282
2022: 0.9302
2010: 0.9326

Median
2023: 0.9145
2022: 0.9248
2010: 0.9258

Blue-Chip Percent
2023: 7.63%
2022: 9.37%
2010: 9.22%

Remember, 247 used to rank players between inside and outside linebacker. Now, everyone is just listed as a linebacker. We are seeing linebackers in general who are a little smaller. The current top 5 for 2023 weigh 225, 205, 235, 205, and 213, respectively. Back in 2010, the outside linebackers weighed 220, 220, 230, 220, and 225 or 6.4 pounds heavier on average. The middle linebackers weighed 11.6 pounds heavier on average, as well.

Notre Dame knocked it out of the park in 2022 in a very strong cycle picking up a trio of linebackers all inside the top 15 at their position, including Jaylen Sneed at no. 3 overall for the linebackers.

This 2023 cycle doesn’t look nearly as strong with Texas linebacker Anthony Hill being the only player at this position as a 5-star and Florida’s Troy Bowles coming in as the next best linebacker at no. 44 overall nationally. The Irish certainly would be happy to snag Jaiden Ausberry (no. 4 linebacker and no. 69 overall nice) out of Louisiana with top 100 Drayk Bowen already in the fold.