I’ve been ragging on the regular season a lot on this website. We’re still getting ourselves a nice treat for week 7 with a loaded lineup of great games across the country. We have a massive battle in the Big Ten to kick Saturday off while Notre Dame will get plenty of the spotlight for the night kickoff in Provo. Plus, a rare quality game on the agenda after the Irish are done in primetime.
2026 Betting Record
Against the Spread: 20-25
Straight Up: 26-19
Too bad I didn’t pick more games last week, it was a fruitful one. Against the spread I went 4-1 and straight up 3-2 overall. The lone loss against the spread was Texas throwing up on itself.
Week 7 Games to Watch
All times are Eastern. Rankings are from the AP Poll.
Florida [+10.5] at #7 Texas
Saturday, October 17, 12:00 PM, ABC
Florida’s season imploded quickly and they’re now playing the role of spoiler moving forward. Texas is in trouble now after last week’s loss to Oklahoma. The next month has the Horns facing Ole Miss, Miss State, Missouri, and LSU after this meeting with the Gators. Suddenly, a 10-2 season is looking like an uphill challenge. I seem to recall this current vintage of Steve Sarkisian being pretty good in bounce back games–in fact Texas hasn’t lost back-to-back regular season games since his first season in Austin back in 2021. Boy, if they lose this game though there are going to be a lot of questions asked about the future.
Texas 35
Florida 19
#4 Ohio State [-3.5] at #5 Indiana
Saturday, October 17, 12:00 PM, Fox
Hoosiers vs. Buckeyes in Bloomington after last year’s Big Ten grind fest saw Indiana win 13-10 on their way to a National Championship. A 5-point win over Northwestern and 3-point escape over Nebraska in recent weeks has the Hoosiers looking like they’re poised to lose for the first time since Notre Dame back in the 2024 playoffs. Does the Cig have any more magic left in this Indiana rollercoaster to stay in the title hunt? I think Ohio State wins and covers.
Ohio State 24
Indiana 14
#16 Mississippi State [+12.5] at #22 LSU
Saturday, October 17, 12:00 PM, ESPN
Tough one for LSU last week.
It’s mid-October and LSU is on the playoff bubble. That’s not where Lane Kiffin wants to be with Super Kamario on tap this weekend and 3 more currently ranked top 15 teams still on the schedule later this season. That demolition of Clemson in the opener now feels so long ago. The Tigers have played 2 offenses with a pulse this year and allowed a combined 67 points. That would have me worried welcoming in a dynamic quarterback this weekend, although I think LSU will be another program (like Texas) to bounce back this Saturday.
LSU 49
Miss State 35
#6 Alabama [+8.5] at #14 Tennessee
Saturday, October 17, 3:30 PM, ABC
The Third Saturday in October™ is here, volume 108. I think we’ll see a pissed off Alabama team this weekend. They’re coming off the tough loss to Georgia and they’ve lost the last 2 meetings in Knoxville. The quarterback situation is not looking good for Tennessee, I actually think this one will get ugly.
Alabama 34
Tennessee 9
#13 Missouri [+6] at #9 Ole Miss
Saturday, October 17, 3:30 PM, SEC Network
I only have Missouri ranked 20th in this week’s 18S article so I’m a little skeptical. They lost to Miss State, throttled Florida whose now in a tailspin, and took care of A&M last weekend while the Aggies are in their own tailspin, too. The SP+ market likes the Tigers more than me (13th ranked just like in the AP Poll), likes Ole Miss a little less (16th ranked) but the Rebels are somewhat comfortable home favorites this weekend. We’ll see a lot of points.
Ole Miss 51
Missouri 44
#18 Oklahoma State [+4.5] at #20 Houston
Saturday, October 17, 7:30 PM, Fox
The Monster patch is abhorrent.
Five teams remain unbeaten in Big 12 play and Houston is not one of them after failing to get past defending conference champion Texas Tech. In a month, Oklahoma State gets their chance against the Red Raiders. But first, a trip at night to H-town. It looks like Connor Weigman is DGT™ so far with 15 touchdown passes to just 1 interception, are we sleeping on Houston in year 3 with this program? They are 15-4 since the star of last year, not bad! I’ll take the home team being further along in their development compared to the rebuild in Stillwater.
Houston 40
Oklahoma State 30
Wisconsin [+2.5] at #12 UCLA
Saturday, October 17, 7:30 PM, NBC
UCLA announced this week that quarterback Nico Iamaleava is done for the year following his knee injury against Oregon last week. In steps former Pittsburgh and Cal-Poly quarterback Ty Dieffenbach who has thrown 6 career passes at the FBS level, all last week against the Ducks. Curiously, the line has only fallen from 3.5 points in favor of Wisconsin this week–not that much. This is a tough call. Wisconsin’s offense has been blah at times while Joseph is a good runner he’s also been extremely spotty as a passer. UCLA has run the ball so well this year but the Badgers might bottle them up with a less potent passing game to defend. I’ll give the edge to Wisconsin, they’re coming off a bye while UCLA has let down vibes coming off their upset of Oregon.
Wisconsin 21
UCLA 19
Nebraska [+7.5] at Oregon
Saturday, October 17, 11:00 PM, Fox
If you remember college football from 10, 20, and 30 years ago this used to be a big television window and a key to the Pac-12 After Dark surge that was taken away from us. This weekend, Oregon provides a glimpse into the past as they host Nebraska at 8 PM local time in Eugene. The Cornhuskers look improved from recent years and nearly pulled off an upset last week but the real story here is if Oregon can save their season and keep their now slim playoff hopes alive. Dante Moore didn’t play last week and as of this writing he’s still questionable. Either way, the Ducks have to find a way to win this one.
Oregon 27
Nebraska 21
Big games everywhere.
A agree with you that Indiana’s luck runs out. They should be playing to avoid loss #3, but they take loss #1.
ND really needs Wisconsin to win against the Flying Chesneys.
I still can’t get used to Oregon v. Nebraska being a conference game.
Interesting that the #16 team is 12.5 point underdog to the #22 team. It is a hard choice, I always root against Lane Kiffin. However, without LSU taking Kelly, we would likely still have him here, and Marcus would be Marcus somewhere else. I feel we owe them a greater debt than we do Navy. Plus, LSU had always been my favorite SEC team. I guess lets get LSU eliminated from the playoffs this week, and they can have a 9-3 season.
Once a week at least I have to catch myself typing in the wrong conference or thinking the game is an out of conference matchup.
Kamario got injured in their game against Missouri. While there’s no official word on his availability this weekend, most people I’ve seen expect him to miss this game, which is contributing to the large spread. He’s pretty much that entire team so if he does end up sitting out I would expect LSU to cover easily