Notre Dame and Ohio State haven’t played much throughout history but when they do it tends to be a huge game at the time of kickoff. The Irish head to Columbus to open the 2022 season in what will be the 5th straight game in this series between Top 10 teams. And if we include the 1935 “Game of the Century” (the AP Poll began a year later in 1936) this Saturday would be the 4th out of 7 overall games between top 5 teams at kickoff.

For Notre Dame, they open the debut season of 36-year old head coach Marcus Freeman looking for a fresh start but thrown right into the meat grinder facing Notre Dame’s first season-opener against a top 5 team since 2001 (Nebraska) and first top 2 opponent season-opener in school history.

#5 Notre Dame (+17) at #2 Ohio State

Ohio Stadium
Columbus, Ohio
Date: Saturday, September 3, 2022
Time: 7:30 PM ET
TV: ABC
Series: 4-2-0 Ohio State

Ohio State promoted then 39-year old offensive coordinator Ryan Day to head coach and he heads into his 4th season with a bevy of accolades: 2 Big Ten titles, a Rose Bowl win, a Sugar Bowl win, and appearances in 2 playoffs. With a 34-4 overall record, Day’s winning percentage of .894 ranks him ahead of Knute Rockne and Frank Leahy for the best ever at the FBS level.

However, the Buckeyes head into 2022 with the highest of expectations still bruising from the first 2 regular season losses of the Day era last year and hoping for the school’s 9th National Championship this fall as the heavy favorite to win the Big Ten.

Ohio State’s Offense

The Buckeyes bring back last year’s 4th place Heisman finisher in addition to the Biletnikoff Award favorite, several other young players looking to make the jump into key starting roles, and a re-shuffled offensive line.

2021 Stats:

PPG: 45.7 (1st)
Points High: 66, Maryland
Points Low: 26, Nebraska
YPP: 7.96 (1st)
Returning Starts: 85 of 143

Out of the 6 Ohio State players to make a start in 2021 who are now gone, 5 were picked in this past spring’s NFL Draft, including: WR Chris Olave (10th), WR Garrett Wilson (11th), OT Nicholas Petit-Frere (69th), TE Jeremy Ruckert (101st), and OG Thayer Munford (238th). Rising senior lineman Harry Miller (8 career starts, 1 start last year) medically retired.

Projected Starters

Composite recruiting grades included
# denotes pre-season AP All-American

QB C.J. Stroud (r-SO) 0.9780 #
RB TreVeyon Henderson (SO) 0.9872 #
WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba (JR) 0.9856 #
WR Julian Fleming (JR) 0.9979
WR Marvin Harrison, Jr. (SO) 0.9583
TE Cade Stover (r-JR) 0.9487
LT Paris Johnson (JR) 0.9953 #
LG Donovan Jackson (SO) 0.9901
C Luke Wypler (r-SO) 0.9523
RG Matthew Jones (5th SR) 0.9652
RT Dawand Jones (r-JR) 0.8527 #

The offense revolves around redshirt sophomore C.J. Stroud who is coming off a freshman All-American season that saw the Californian set 17 school records while finishing 2nd nationally among Power 5 quarterbacks in passing yards per game and passing touchdowns while 1st from that group in passer rating. At 6’3″ and 215 pounds, Stroud isn’t much of a runner but slides around in the pocket really well with a quick and very smooth release. He’s hyper-accurate (71.9% completions last year) and throws an extremely catchable deep ball. Stroud will be in a season-long battle with Alabama’s Bryce Young to be the top quarterback in the 2023 NFL Draft should he decided to leave after this fall.

Stopping the Stroud to Smith-Njigba air connection will be priority number one for the Irish. The true junior caught only 10 balls as a freshman but exploded in 2021 finishing 1st nationally among Power 5 wideouts in yards per game, and really turned it on over their final 5 games where he caught an absurd 60 passes for 958 yards.

At 6’0″ and 198 pounds, Smith-Njigba isn’t a true burner downfield (think more Golden Tate than Will Fuller). He can certainly run away from folks at times but he’s elite with his first-step, acceleration, route-running, and thrives in the short-to-intermediate game where he’s terrific at getting separation or using surprising strength on contested catches.

JSN is a problem. 

Ohio State is hoping for a big jump from Julian Fleming and Marvin Harrison, Jr. to surround JSN as depth and proven production behind their star receiver is a question mark. They’ll also sprinkle in former 5-star Emeka Egbuka who caught 9 passes last year and is a big return guy.

Running back talent hasn’t been a problem for Ohio State and they will be led by super sophomore TreVeyon Henderson who had a slow start last year sitting behind (then) sophomore Miyan Williams only to take over the the starting job in week 3. Henderson would finish with the 2nd most rushing yards for a freshman in Ohio State history and break the overall touchdown record for freshmen Buckeyes.

OSU was hoping for more depth from former top 100 recruit Evan Pryor but he is out for the season due to a knee injury. It’ll be Henderson carrying the load with Williams largely in a power-back role.

The Buckeyes are moving Paris Johnson from right guard out to left tackle with veteran Matthew Jones coming in at right guard. Replacing Thayer Munford at left guard is former 5-star Donovan Jackson who played a little bit in a backup role last year. Both Luke Wypler and Dawand Jones are returning starters at their positions.

Ohio State’s Defense

Ohio State’s defense let them down big time in both of their losses last season. They brought in Ohio native and former Ohio State assistant Kerry Coombs to coordinate the defense back in 2020 and his 2-year stint didn’t go very well, to be kind. They took away his play-calling duties early in 2021 (never a good sign) and fired him prior to the Rose Bowl last season.

2021 Stats:

PPG: 22.8 (38th)
Points High: 45, Utah
Points Low: 7, Akron/Indiana/Michigan State
YPP: 5.33 (43rd)
Returning Starts: 92 of 143

A total of 8 players made starts at Ohio State last year who are no longer on the team for 2022. Only one player, defensive end Tyreke Smith (158th overall) was taken in the NFL Draft. The journey for the other 7 players:

  • DT Haskell Garrett (8 starts) – Undrafted
  • DT Antwuan Jackson (6 starts) – Undrafted
  • CB Marcus Williamson (6 starts) – Retired (ahem) during the Rose Bowl
  • CB Sevyn Banks (6 starts) – Transfer to LSU
  • CB Ryan Watts (2 starts) – Transfer to Texas
  • S Bryson Shaw (12 starts) – Transfer to USC
  • S Craig Young (1 start) Transfer to Kansas

In comes new coordinator Jim Knowles hired away from Oklahoma State following a successful 4 seasons with the Cowboys. He brings with him an aggressive 4-2-5 scheme with an emphasis on improving their secondary and filling gaps with down-hill disruptive defensive back play, particularly from the safeties. This is the same scheme Notre Dame saw in the Fiesta Bowl even though Knowles had already left Stillwater before the game.

Ohio State’s defense is decidedly not their offense in terms of proven talent.

Projected Starters

DE Zach Harrison (SR) 0.9933 or J.T. Tuimoloau (SO) 0.9989
NT Taron Vincent (5th SR) 0.9884 or Jerron Cage (5th SR) 0.9105
DT Tyleik Williams (SO) 0.9288
JACK Jack Sawyer (SO) 0.9980
LB Tommy Eichenberg (r-SO) 0.8966
LB Steele Chambers (r-JR) 0.9126
CB Denzel Burke (SO) 0.9214
S Ronnie Hickman (JR) 0.9485
S Tanner McCallister (5th SR) 0.8710
S Josh Proctor (5th SR) 0.9640
CB Cameron Brown (5th SR) 0.8971

Zach Harrison and Taron Vincent are former big-time recruits who haven’t quite lived up to expectations. Coming up behind them sophomores Tyleik Williams and Jack Sawyer are expected to be major playmakers for the Buckeyes.

Ohio State likes Tommy Eichenberg (younger brother of former Irish lineman Liam Eichenberg) and Steele Chambers but they probably aren’t the type of playmakers keeping Tommy Rees up at night. With an aggressive secondary, I’d expect Rees to get these linebackers into as many unfavorable matchups with Michael Mayer and Lorenzo Styles as possible.

Will Harrison finally break out?

With it being Knowles’ specialty, we should see improvement in Ohio State’s secondary. They welcome back corner Josh Proctor who missed most of last season after breaking his leg against Oregon. They also brought in veteran Tanner McCalister from Oklahoma State to provide experience in this new 4-2-5 system.

Ronnie Hickman is a really good, experienced safety. There’s also a lot of emerging hype for sophomore Denzel Burke who started all 13 games last year and was named to several freshman All-American teams.

Prediction

Does this rather large spread feel disrespectful to Notre Dame?

First, we have to admit that playing at Ohio State, at night, is one of the toughest places to play in the country. Their fan base’s reputation is well-known and we can expect some nerves from the Irish with a largely new coaching staff, plus a young quarterback making his first career start.

Since 2012 (after the weird Luke Fickell transitional year) Ohio State is 63-4 at home. Notre Dame is 31-2 at home since 2017 for a similar winning percentage, except Ohio State’s record is twice as long. Before that transitional year the Buckeyes were also 60-5 over Jim Tressel’s final 9 seasons with the program. Rarely do they lose on home turf.

But, it happened just last year against Oregon!

Yes, Ohio State’s defense did not play very well at all. They allowed 17 plays of at least 10 yards (including a 77-yard rushing touchdown) and Oregon scored touchdowns on all 4 red zone opportunities. Remember this for later.

On the other side, the Buckeyes offense just couldn’t seal the deal. They amassed 612 yards, 7.2 yards per play, 32 first downs, but failed on a pair of 4th downs inside Oregon’s 40, failed another 4th down from the Ducks’ 8-yard line, couldn’t get a field goal on a late drive to end the 2nd quarter, and Stroud threw a late interception in the 4th quarter.

My point is, this Ohio State offense is extremely dangerous and Oregon needed a whole lot to fall their way not to lose by a couple touchdowns–and that’s with the Ducks having a very nice day on offense.

Notre Dame can’t just play well up front, the Irish defensive line has to kick ass, neutralize Henderson in the run game, and try to make Ohio State one-dimensional in the passing game with constant pressure on Stroud.

In a tight game, you have to like Ohio State’s kicking situation (2021 North Carolina transfer Noah Ruggles was excellent going 20 of 21 on field goals and nailing all 74 PAT’s) over Notre Dame’s but if there’s a door open to an upset it could come in the red zone.

Ohio State generally cleaned up against bad defenses in the red zone but whenever a game was close, a poor touchdown percentage followed. That includes going just 1 of 6 on red zone touchdowns against Penn State and a combined 4 of 9 in their last 2 games against Michigan and Utah. You can imagine limiting big plays and touchdowns will be huge to force Ohio State to lean on its running game in compressed territory only to settle for field goals.

I expect Notre Dame’s offense to be extremely hot and cold. Taking a page out of the Fiesta Bowl, I believe Ohio State will be very aggressive in their run defense but also struggle with a very mobile quarterback at times. That aggressiveness could also open up plenty of one-on-one opportunities in the passing game. The Irish have to hope they can make explosive plays, finish drives in the red zone, and find out that Ohio State’s defense isn’t quite that improved yet. Even more, if they bracket Michael Mayer I think a 7-catch, 130-yard night from Lorenzo Styles is in play with at least one long touchdown.

If Notre Dame shows they can stop the run early, the Buckeyes re-tooled offensive line proves overrated, and Stroud is under fire, then maybe Ohio State will discover the support through the air outside of Smith-Njigba isn’t quite up to snuff.

I can’t predict a win. Not with so much inexperience in crucial areas like coaching and quarterback for Notre Dame. I think there’s good potential to zag with a lot of jitters on both sides leading to a very low-scoring game but eventually Ohio State will get theirs. Smith-Njigba plays so much in the slot, can get the ball on short passes anywhere on the field, and will be schemed away from Cam Hart in what is going to be a nightmare matchup for the Irish.

Notre Dame 23

Ohio State 38