It doesn’t seem possible that 10 years could fly by this quickly. This summer, the University of Notre Dame will be entering its final year of the 10-year deal signed with Under Armour. At the time, the Irish were coming off a frustrated 2013 season on the football field with some growing discontent with Adidas, especially in basketball where the infamous mint green camouflage uniforms were debuted the prior March.

Notre Dame’s 17-year relationship with Adidas had grown stale and many were looking towards Under Armour being the cool new company on the block. Bonus points were scored when the Notre Dame/UA deal eclipsed the Michigan/Adidas deal by $8 million total over the same 10-year timeframe.

The Irish even looked golden as the growing Maryland-based company offered some of the cash in the deal in company stock. Less than 2 years later, Under Armour stock was trading at over 150% as the company continued to show remarkable growth from 2010 until late 2015. The market for collegiate apparel deals started to heat up all across the country.

Ohio State and Texas both signed larger deals with Nike. Michigan left Adidas and signed a huge deal with Jordan. Under Armour would hand out a massive 15-year $280 million with UCLA.

Then, things changed.

The fast-paced growth for Under Armour came to a grinding halt, the company was overextended into non-apparel businesses, wasn’t able to break through in international markets like it hoped, remained stuck with a large amount of inventory it couldn’t sell, reduced its workforce, and had to restructure its management all while the stock price began to tumble.

In June 2020, Under Armour tried to end its contract with UCLA but was sued and paid the school $67.491 million in a settlement last year. UCLA had signed a $46.5 million deal with Jordan for 6 years for the 2020-21 season.

Under Armour Stock Price 2006-2023

When Notre Dame signed the deal with Under Armour, athletic director Jack Swarbrick said, “We don’t believe we’re partnering with a $2 billion company. We’re partnering with a $20 billion company.”

As of this writing, Under Armour is worth $3.80 billion.

Despite that initial surge from Under Armour in the months leading up to and after the signing with Notre Dame, it was Adidas that began its own comeback.

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Back in 2006, jumping on the success of his first 2 albums, Ye (aka Kanye West) was shopping a collaborative idea with Adidas on a new line of sneakers and apparel. Those negotiations ultimately failed and in 2009, Ye released the Air Yeezy I sneaker with Nike and a few years later dropped the Air Yeezy II. With limited production, these sneakers have gone on to shatter the world record for most expensive shoe. Two years ago, a pair of Grammy Awards worn Yeezy I’s by Ye sold for $1.8 million in a private sale by Sotheby’s.

After disagreements over sneaker royalties, Ye left Nike and signed a new deal with Adidas leading to new sneakers and apparel being launched in February 2015. This led to an extremely fruitful 7-year relationship ultimately spiking Adidas’ stock from around $40 to a high of $188 in the summer of 2021.

However, Adidas terminated the relationship on October 25, 2022 following antisemitic and hateful comments made by Ye which dropped his net worth from $2 billion to $400 million overnight.

Why does this matter for Notre Dame?

As the contract with Under Armour comes to an end, presumably Notre Dame is in the process of looking to negotiate a new deal and if the Irish are unhappy with the situation at UA it’s possible they are seeking a return to the Three Stripes.

Except, Adidas announced recently that they are saddled with $1.3 billion in Yeezy products which they may have to write-off and they expect an operating loss (their first since 1992) of $750 million in 2023. All of this while their stock–which was falling hard prior to Ye’s comments–has been hovering below $80 recently.

Would Adidas be willing to sign a new, possibly record-breaking, apparel deal with Notre Dame sometime in the next 10-12 months given their current financial outlook?

Unless Notre Dame really moves in a different direction and chooses a company not currently supplying a school in the major sports, we’re looking at 4 potential options:

New Balance – I bet there are certain people on campus who would love a switch to this Boston company. Currently, Boston College is the only school in the country with this deal, and even BC made a separate deal with Adidas exclusively for the football team.

Nike – In 1997, Notre Dame adopted a standards code requiring freedom of association and the right of workers to organize and form their own labor unions. Four years later, the university banned sales of merchandise manufactured in China bearing the school’s trademark. Nike has over 600 factories in 46 different countries but China has 112 of those factories and 156,000+ workers making products for the Swoosh. Under Armour and Adidas both have factories in China as well (although not to the extent as Nike) so it’s possible Notre Dame could still work around a No China policy with Nike. If not, it’s been understood Nike is a non-starter for Notre Dame.

Adidas – This was my betting favorite until the recent issues in Germany. If Notre Dame is unhappy with their current deal–or more precisely recognizes many fans are unhappy with the current deal–I have no doubts this company would the choice. The question is if Adidas would want to return? Money could be an issue, but then again maybe not? It’s important to note that despite their recent struggles Adidas is still nearly 8 times the size of Under Armour and that collegiate apparel deals in the high 8-figures or a little larger are generally low risk and great investments.

Under Armour – I’m full expecting an extension with UA to be announced at some point in the next year or so. I was recently searching around for opinions on what Notre Dame would do in the future and read someone say, “Notre Dame will find the best deal and maximize the revenue.” I disagree! From staying independent in football and sticking with NBC, Notre Dame has been willing to take below market value in certain areas for years. I’m sure Nike would die to pay $15 million per year to market Notre Dame but it’s not just about the largest check. Plus, the current athletic director’s son is leading the Under Armour North American Sports Marketing Collegiate Division. That would be awkward to lose that Notre Dame account.