We don’t have a whole lot going on in the Big 12 this weekend but some important games are taking place in the other 3 power conferences. We’ll also see Boise State put to the test on Friday in a game that could be a bit tricky.
First, a quick look at last week’s bets:
2024 Betting Record
ATS: 34-41-1
SU: 48-28-0
I was one game under .500 against the spread for week 9 but a more solid 6-3-0 straight up. Some of my upset picks continue to fail. I thought the Indiana fun story was over, and it was not. I thought Pitt would falter and not enjoy a trio of pick sixes. I know better than to trust Brian Kelly in a big game, but didn’t listen.
Week 10 Games to Watch
All times are Eastern. Rankings are from the AP Poll.
Friday Games
San Diego State [+23.5] at #15 Boise State
8:00 PM, FS1
San Diego State is somehow still unbeaten in conference play. I added this game for the weekend to offer something on Friday. The Aztecs are struggling (104th in FEI) and shouldn’t be competitive here but I’m curious to see how Boise State performs with the playoffs continually dangled in front of them.
Boise State 53
San Diego State 23
Saturday Games
#4 Ohio State [-3.5] at #3 Penn State
12:00 PM, Fox
The latest updates in Happy Valley have quarterback Drew Allar as a game time decision. This line hasn’t moved all week, by the way. Even if he came in completely healthy I wasn’t picking Penn State. I think the Buckeyes come in with a convincing victory and the Nittany Lions could have their season go a little sideways down the stretch.
Ohio State 31
Penn State 16
Duke [+21.5] at #5 Miami
12:00 PM, ABC
Consider me completely puzzled by this massive spread and it’s been growing all week, too. Duke is a solid team with some dangerous weapons. I’ve been terrible at picking outright upsets this year and I’m not doing it here. Still, this Noon kickoff has all the signs of a tough struggle for Miami.
Miami 37
Duke 28
#1 Oregon [-14.5] at Michigan
3:30 PM, CBS
I would think Oregon’s offense is just too good to allow Michigan to keep this close for a scare. I will be screaming if the Ducks blow this. Don’t do that.
Just win, baby.Â
Oregon 30
Michigan 17
Florida [+16.5] vs. #2 Georgia (Jacksonville, FL)
3:30 PM, ABC
Florida is coming off a bye and while it seems like they’ve faded from the national picture their season hasn’t been quite as terrible as their first game against Miami suggested. Georgia has to take care of business here and nothing more. I’m expecting a close game for a while.
Georgia 29
Florida 16
#10 Texas A&M [-2.5] at South Carolina
7:30 PM, ABC
Our writer’s room on Slack were discussing this during the week as Texas A&M comes off a huge victory over LSU and looks poised to play in the SEC Championship. Beware! Barely favorites going into South Carolina has bettors thinking about a massive let down.
Texas A&M 24
South Carolina 23
Louisville [+10.5] at #11 Clemson
7:30 PM, ESPN
Louisville still has an outside shot at winning the ACC and obviously they have to win this weekend and take down Clemson. Remember that opener against Georgia? Dabo Swinney is like a cockroach and he’s seemingly never going to die. Clemson has been looking really strong this season and I’m not convinced Louisville is anything more than a pretty decent team with moments of great play but still way too inconsistent and lacking in talent overall.
When will they really fall off?
Clemson 40
Louisville 21
#18 Pittsburgh [+7.5] at #20 SMU
8:00 PM, ACC Network
This is a big game as neither team has lost in the ACC. I know it’s Pittsburgh and everything–I’m still a little surprised this line wasn’t closer to 3 or 4 at the most. Neither of these programs are exactly bluebloods with a strong track record of success. I do like the Mustangs at home, but barely.
SMU 47
Pittsburgh 43
Ugh Miami Duke was 1 point game in the 4th and the Canes still cover. Brutal on multiple levels, especially for da picks here.
So brutal.
I guess this will come up, but for ND’s schedule strength, will Louisville’s decisive win cancel out the A&M very bad for us loss? I guess we’ll find out with Tuesday night.
I think it helps slightly. A&M wasn’t going the rest of the season undefeated, so they weren’t going to maintain a “great team” status regardless, but they’re still viewed as a “good” team even with the loss.
Louisville gains “good” status with the win (and even more so if they can win out), so it nets us one more “good” win.
Also, despite the H2H metric for teams of similar records supposedly being a thing, if A&M had won out (or even won everything except Texas) they would have been some level of a threat of eventually being ranked ahead of ND, and thus a bad loss for them soundly puts them behind us.
Thanks for a very informative reply!