My crazy off-season content will have to wait for at least another week as Notre Dame’s quest for a 12th National Championship continues with the third game this post-season. After an emotional and joyous victory over SEC Champion Georgia, the Fighting Irish head down south to the Sunshine State for the College Football Playoff Semifinals against Penn State.
Notre Dame (-1.5) vs. Penn State
2025 College Football Semifinals
The 91st Orange Bowl
Hard Rock Stadium
Miami Gardens, Florida
Date: Thursday, January 9, 2025
Time: 7:30 PM ET
TV: ESPN
The Nittany Lions started the season no. 8 in the AP Poll, one spot behind Notre Dame. A year after scoring only 27 points combined in losses to Ohio State and Michigan, the program looked to move in a different direction on offense and has improved in that area in 2024. However, after a 7-0 start those past failures came back again in a close 20-13 loss at home to the Buckeyes.
Another playoff game, but also another bowl game too.
With the Buckeyes loss to Michigan (again) it opened the door for Penn State to compete for the Big Ten Championship where their offense performed much better in a 45-37 defeat to then no. 1 Oregon. The Nittany Lions come into the semifinals with a first round win over SMU 38-10 and another 31-14 win over Boise State.
Vegas Corner
We haven’t seen much movement since this matchup was set last week. Notre Dame opened as a small 1.5 point favorite and in some places it has ticked up to a full 2 points. The total points has also remained right at 46.5 in recent days.
Weather Report
Florida in January, no problem. Temperatures should get up near 70 degrees for tailgating throughout the day and game time temperatures are expected closer to the 63-65 degree range. No precipitation is in the forecast. A bit of a breeze around 10mph is expected throughout Hard Rock Stadium.
Series History
For folks like me approaching middle-age, Penn State still feels like a minor rivalry for Notre Dame although on the field that can’t really be said in modern times. This is more of a recruiting and regional rivalry off the field with a lot of mixing of these two fan bases on the East Coast and into the mid-Atlantic.
The 12-Year War from StateCollege.com
One of several famous pictures from the ND-PSU series.
The core of the series took place between 1976 and 1992 when 13 out of the overall 19 meetings occurred. That included the 1982 game against eventual National Champion Penn State, the 1985 game against then no. 1 Penn State, plus 3 meetings in a row (1988-90) when the Irish were no. 1 in the nation at the time of kickoff.
Shockingly, this is the first meeting in 17 years and it’ll be the first time since 1928 where Notre Dame will play a Penn State team not coached by Joe Paterno.
Coaching Staff
This is the closing of James Franklin’s 11th season in Happy Valley. He had a bit of a slow start going 14-12 in his first two seasons before putting together a 42-11 run from 2016-19 including a trio of top 10 finishes with a Fiesta and Cotton bowl victory apiece. Penn State then slumped a bit to 11-11 through the 2020-21 Covid era and have since rebounded to a 34-7 record since the beginning of the 2022 season.
Franklin’s lone Big Ten title came during the 2016 season and their overall lack of success on the national stage has largely been tied to a combined 4-17 record against Ohio State and Michigan in league play.
Franklin and the thin rectangular glasses continue to persist.
Late last season, Penn State fired Mike Yurcich after their loss to Michigan and then lured offensive coordinator Andy Koltelnicki away from Kansas after a very successful 3-year stint with the Jayhawks. He’s pushed the Nittany Lions more in a multiple spread-type direction and is very dangerous as a play-caller mixing in tempo with shifts and misdirection.
After 2 seasons, Manny Diaz left Penn State to be the head coach at Duke for 2024 and the program brought in Tom Allen to coordinate the defense after he was fired as the head coach of Indiana.
Portal
Penn State saw 16 players enter the transfer portal and leave Happy Valley this past off-season. Their list of incoming transfers is below:
WR Julian Fleming – Ohio State
OL Mason Carlan – Air Force
OL Nolan Rucci – Wisconsin
DE Jordan Mayer – Wisconsin
CB Jalen Kimber – Florida
CB A.J. Harris – Georgia
K Chase Meyer – Tulsa
Fleming is well-known as the former 5-star recruit who spent 4 seasons at Ohio State before moving to Happy Valley this off-season. In 15 games with PSU, he’s caught 14 passes and is playing in a backup role.
Rucci, a one-time major Notre Dame recruiting target, spent 3 seasons with the Badgers without much success but has been holding down the right tackle position all season for Penn State.
Kimber was a starter at Florida in 2023 and has been in the same spot with the Nittany Lions in 2024. Harris was a true freshman who burned a year with Georgia but didn’t make any starts before grabbing a starting position this fall for PSU. He was named 3rd team All-Big Ten after the regular season.
Junior kicker Chase Meyer made 17 out of his 20 field goals at Tulsa in 2023 but was beaten out by a redshirt freshman which we’ll get to below.
Top Men
QB Drew Allar – The junior quarterback’s recruitment began blowing up in the winter of 2021 when Notre Dame was one of several programs to offer him in the month of February. A couple weeks later, he’d commit to Penn State and eventually end up as the Composite no. 4 quarterback and 247’s no. 1 quarterback in the 2021 cycle.
How elite is Allar?
A big signal caller with prototypical NFL size, Allar has a striking resemblance to Jonathan Toews (once you see this you cannot unsee it I’m afraid) and has been the full-time starter for PSU since 2023 after seeing the field occasionally as a true freshman. Consistency has been the knock with Allar throughout his career although he boosted his completion percentage by nearly 8 points this year and has thrown only 9 interceptions in over 500 career pass attempts. He’s got a big arm but Penn State typically aren’t throwing it a ton–Allar has only eclipsed 30 pass attempts in a game twice this season.
RB Nicholas Singleton – The Irish looked to be ready for a commitment from Singleton in the summer of 2021 but he ultimately stayed in-state with Penn State. He’ll share running back duties with fellow 2022 recruit Kaytron Allen. This is an extremely dangerous 1-2 combination for PSU with each back over 1,000 yards on the season. Singleton’s speed and homerun ability make him a little scarier.
TE Tyler Warren – Once upon a time a middling 3-star recruit, Warren took a redshirt in 2020 and only caught 15 passes over the next 2 seasons before a breakout 3rd-team All-Big Ten season in 2023 with 34 receptions and 7 touchdowns. He’s blown up nationally for 2024 winning the Mackey Award as the nation’s best tight end and has 98 catches for 1,158 yards and 8 touchdowns. At 6’6″ he’s a big weapon and will run the ball (197 yards, 4 touchdowns) and even has thrown 6 passes with another touchdown in 2024.
DE Abdul Carter – From just outside Philadelphia, Carter came to Penn State in 2022 as a low 4-star linebacker and has been a menace since his freshman year. Prior to 2024, they moved him to defensive end and he was named the Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year for his efforts. Through 41 career games, Carter has 167 tackles, 39 tackles for loss, and 22 sacks. He’s first among Power conference players in tackles for loss this year and is projected as a top 10 pick in this upcoming NFL Draft.
Carter did injure his shoulder/arm against Boise State in the quarterfinals and did not return to action. His status is unclear for the Orange Bowl although the reporting out of Happy Valley suggests he will try to play.
LB Kobe King – A stout 6’1″ and 248 pounds, King hails from Detroit and is in his 2nd full year of starting for the Nittany Lions. He’s not regarded as a top NFL prospect but he gets to play behind a very good defensive line and he’s able to make a lot of plays. Heading into Thursday, he’s made 191 tackles, 19 tackles for loss, and 4.5 sacks in his career.
Good Matchup
Notre Dame’s Speed vs. Allar’s Immobility
If Notre Dame can repeat their ferocity from last week it could be a long day for Penn State. However, Penn State’s core offense is more dangerous than Georgia’s with, I’d argue, a more solid offensive line, better running backs, and a far more experienced and talented quarterback. Allar has okay escapability, but he’s still large, offering a big tackling target, and could really struggle evading Notre Dame’s pressure. I should also note, Penn State’s backup quarterback Beau Pribula–who played in nearly every game and is a very good runner–jumped in the transfer portal after the Big Ten Championship while joining Missouri last month.
Bad Matchup
Penn State’s Rush Defense vs. Notre Dame’s Running Backs
With or without a healthy Abdul Carter I think this Penn State front is going to be every bit as stout as Georgia’s. Factor in a hobbled Jeremiyah Love and there’s plenty of worry the Irish ground game gets incredibly stifled and we don’t see a repeat of an insane defensive/special teams combination from the Sugar Bowl.
Special Teams
Redshirt freshman Ryan Barker handles the placekicking duties and is a perfect 8 for 8 inside 40 yards this season. From outside 40 yards, Barker is a solid 6 of 9, plus he’s missed 1 of his 46 PAT attempts.
Another Australian punter? You bet! Junior Riley Thompson is in his 3rd year of starting at Penn State and has seen his punting average dip in 2024 from his previous 2 seasons and finished in the bottom third among the Big Ten players.
Sophomore cornerback Zion Tracy handles punt returning in addition to his starting nickel duties. The speedy Singleton starts at kick returner and is approaching 1,000 yards for Penn State.
Prediction
If you’d told me 6 months ago that Notre Dame would be meeting Penn State in the playoff semifinals I would’ve been jumping for joy. In my little Notre Dame bubble, Penn State is a team that I perceive as less talented and they feel a lot less proven as a worthy National Champion in 2024 with a pair of losses and the easiest run to this point in the playoffs.
Notre Dame is favored and they should win, right?
FEI 2024 RANKINGS
| STAT | IRISH | PSU |
|---|---|---|
| FEI Overall | 2 | 4 |
| FEI Offense | 14 | 5 |
| FEI Defense | 1 | 4 |
I think it’s important to state that this year is pretty different to a few years ago where we had several elite programs in the playoffs and 2024 just isn’t that type of season. By all advanced metrics it’s been a down year for Death Machine college football teams. With a 2020 mindset facing Penn State now seems like a much easier game than expected, but of course Notre Dame is certainly no generational elite team and has plenty of flaws (and injuries) to consider.
Plus, Notre Dame and Penn State are very similar teams with similar program archetypes. We’re both good at running the ball and stopping the run. They throw the ball better, we have a better pass defense. Both have done a good job protecting the ball.
We’re looking at small margins to pick up a win!
Abdul Carter is expected to play.
I wouldn’t worry about Tyler Warren too much. He’s 3rd nationally in receptions but he’s not an explosive big-play receiver and the Irish can probably live with him catching 6 or 7 passes for 80 yards which is right around his game average. Additionally, he’s a highly variant playmaker. Against Bowling Green, USC, Washington, Purdue, and Minnesota he popped off with 49 receptions for 674 yards–including the Big Ten record-breaking day against the Trojans. In his other 10 games he’s averaged just under 5 catches per game with not quite 50 yards.
Surely this is an old-school throwback game?
Win the battle of running games, don’t turn it over (please protect the ball, Jadarian Price!), and make a big play on special teams. This was a lot like how the series with Penn State was played back in the late 1980’s and early 1990’s. I think both offenses will struggle and I like Riley Leonard’s scrambling ability to be an X-factor that’s missing with Penn State with an interception and lost fumble predicted by Allar.
Good stuff as always, like you said this matchup feels like a dead heat. I would not be surprised in the slightest if Penn State wins because their offense is better-equipped to take advantage of our weaknesses with a better offensive line and RBs than Georgia. Allar isn’t scared of pushing the ball downfield and although PSU has average WRs they scheme them open with a lot of eye candy and misdirection.
For me, ND right now has the feeling of a mid-seed March Madness team on a hot streak. They’re banged up, tired, and not as talented as their opponents in key spots but they just make winning plays. I’m almost glad ND only has a week to prepare for PSU because you don’t want a break to relax, you just want to keep the party going. They’ve got to be the most confident team in the country right now outside of Columbus and I think they could benefit from having short rest.
This might seem obvious but the key is winning the big moments. IMO the most underrated aspect to the Sugar Bowl victory was that ND won almost every single high leverage play. UGA was 2-15 on 3rd and 4th downs and when the offense absolutely had to stay on the field they mounted an 8-minute drive. And that’s what this team has done all year long since NIU, someone always steps up in the highest pressure spots. Christian Gray vs USC, Moore against UL, and a multitude of guys against UGA.
Warren is going to get his no matter what and they will try to force-feed him the ball. But there is no path to victory for PSU if ND’s d-line can fight their offensive line to a draw and our secondary can feast on their meh WRs. Offensively, I just have no clue what we’re going to look like this game because we keep moving the ball when it makes no sense. I would say Leonard has to have a great game throwing the ball but if 90 yards is enough to beat Georgia can we really complain how it looks? Just keep their defense on the field and let’s try to hit some more explosives.
Analysis is for nerds.
Notre Dame by a million.
One thing that might be a big factor is the coaching chess game. I.E. the 4th down offsides in the Georgia game. They had scouted Smart and knew it was likely for him to call a timeout in that situation. (Not sure how much coaches scout each other. I doubt kelly ever spent much time on it). I think NDs staff has a distinct advantage.
Eric, great write-up again. Thanks.
The d-line is, once again, key to this game. Against Georgia we had third string d-linemen making great plays (Tuihalamaka, Hinish and Young). Talk about “next man up!” How do you think they’ll hold up against Penn State’s o-line? Will Ausberry, Kiser, Bowen and Sneed be able to shore the d-line up enough to stop the run and get some sacks?
Is Cross healthy enough to play?
I’ve seen multiple sites claiming PSU has a better Oline than Georgia. Our friend Jamie U. at ISD says they don’t. Against OSU, USC, UCLA & Minn., PSU averaged less than 4 yds. per carry and 120 yds or less. I think they’ll have to throw the ball to beat ND. That’s not a good recipe for success.
That’s interesting. PSU has 75 more rushing yards per game, 1.3 more yards per carry, half a yard better overall in YPP, and 6 fewer sacks than Georgia. I’d guess there’s quite a bit of schedule difficulty to factor in there but the Dawgs line looked like a hot mess last week!
I like ND’s chances in this one. An advantage ND has is that it’s army of analysts have had weeks to pour over Penn State and identify tendencies. I don’t think they were spending much time on Boise or SMU. While Penn State has had to split between ND/UGA.
I think we’re going to see Leonard run 15 to 20 times per game over the next 2 games. Confident we’re going to manufacture a couple of explosive plays and I think Denbrock draws up something where we leak someone out the backside for a wide open touchdown. The defense continues to play fast, violent, and downhill.
“In my little Notre Dame bubble, Penn State is a team that I perceive as less talented… “
Hit the nail on the head. I’ve had a really hard time believing PSU was deserving of their ranking all year. I was at the game in 2006 and lost all respect for their program through interactions with their fans on campus. I was stoked when the bracket came out because i thought if only we could beat UGA we’d have a layup to get to the final. Now game week is coming and I’m less confident, possibly setting myself up for extra heartbreak. But I know if our guys play to their standard and maybe a couple things go our way (or just don’t go the other way) we can have a really nice win this week.
Your last sentence is where my focus is too. This team has been immensely good at avoiding anything stupid happening to it for months now, and I feel like if nothing stupid happens Thursday Notre Dame wins. But if a stupid thing or two helps Penn State, they’re clearly good enough to take advantage.
Before the game last week I said our special teams coaching is no bueno and we saw what happened, so: our WR coaching stinks.
A quick bit about PSU stopping their run. 2 of their starting linebackers are the single worse and fourth worse when it comes to missed tackle rate among power 4 linebackers. Like missing 30% of their tacked bad. One of their starting corners and their starting nickel also top 10 worse among power 4 for their position. They get lots of tackles for loss and also miss lots of tackles. Their rushing d by game is a giant mixed bag. Think we’ll get some running done…