The weekly picks articles are back with college football opening up this weekend. Well, since there’s a week 0 the next picks article won’t come for a couple more weeks after Week 1 is fully finished. I finished 2024 on a nice run going 6-3 during conference championship weekend. That brought the ATS record back to 59-59-1 on the season with a 75-38 record straight up.
We’ll ease into the season with a forgettable week 0 (remember there are discussions about moving the start of the season up so week 1 is the current week 0 so the calendar may change soon) before some incredibly important blue blood matchups next weekend.
Week 0/1 Games to Watch
All times are Eastern. Rankings are from the AP Poll.
#22 Iowa State [+3] vs. #17 Kansas State (Dublin, Ireland)
Saturday, August 23rd, 12:00 PM, ESPN
Let us football.
Just some quality Midwest football in Ireland to kick things off this season. There’s nothing sneaky about this matchup, it’s an important game in the Big 12 and these teams met in last year’s regular season finale (Iowa State won to clinch a spot in the conference championship). Kansas State is hoping quarterback Avery Johnson takes their team to the next level while the Cyclones are hoping they can rebuild on defense and find some receivers to catch passes from veteran signal caller Rocco Becht.
Kansas State 24
Iowa State 19
Stanford [+2.5] at Hawaii
Saturday, August 23rd, 7:30 PM, CBS
The interim Frank Reich era begins with an afternoon kickoff this Saturday local Honolulu time. His tenure begins as underdogs on the island, which is a little surprising. The only other Power program who is an underdog against a G5 team through week 1 is Northwestern vs. Tulane. Somehow, I think Stanford does well enough to get this victory.
Stanford 27
Hawaii 20
#25 Boise State [-6.5] at USF
Thursday, August 28th, 5:30 PM, ESPN
Hell yes, we’re getting the Labor Day weekend started early with a future Notre Dame opponent traveling all the way down to Florida during the dinner time hour. This line has been falling in favor of USF in recent weeks. That’s pretty interesting, the Bulls improved last year but if Boise is a playoff contender they should handle their business.
Boise State 33
USF 19
Nebraska [-6.5] vs. Cincinnati (Kansas City, MO)
Thursday, August 28th, 9:00 PM, ESPN
The Black Shirts are bringing back black jerseys for 2025.
Close out the first day of Labor Day weekend with this late kickoff inside Arrowhead Stadium. These teams have met only once back in 1906 in a 41-0 Nebraska route in Lincoln. Cincinnati has been spinning their wheels under Satterfield (16 losses in his first 2 years) although they can still be dangerous (see Arizona State last year). Nebraska is just outside the rankings and will want to pick up this tricky neutral site win.
Nebraska 30
Cincinnati 17
Auburn [-2.5] at Baylor
Friday, August 29th, 8:00 PM, Fox
Baylor was one of my dark horse teams this year and I do not agree with this spread. Is the SEC affiliation that strong? Baylor was better last year and a more stable program with some quality pieces coming back for 2025. This is a lot of hope on Oklahoma transfer Jackson Arnold turning things around immediately for Auburn AND they reportedly plan on playing multiple quarterbacks anyway. No way would I bet Auburn as a favorite.
Baylor 44
Auburn 32
Georgia Tech [-4] at Colorado
Friday, August 29th, 8:00 PM, ESPN
Going head-to-head against the previous game on Friday are the Yellow Jackets visiting Folsom Field. It’s a new era for Coach Prime who had a very challenging off-season with his health and loses his quarterback son plus the Heisman winner. Georgia Tech is gritty, their offense should travel well, and they deserve to be favored in this game.
Georgia Tech 26
Colorado 19
Syracuse [+13.5] vs. #24 Tennessee (Atlanta, GA)
Saturday, August 30th, 12:00 PM, ABC
In what’s likely to be the most overshadowed and ignored game on ABC this year due to its timeslot, we get to see newly crowned starting quarterback Steve Angeli make his Syracuse debut on the road inside the Mercedes-Benz Stadium against Tennessee. That sets up an incredible storyline set against the Vols losing Nico Iamaleava to UCLA while Joey Aguilar won the Tennessee job after fleeing that same UCLA program. Amazing stuff. A Syracuse win would be cool for Peanut Butter Angeli and good news for our schedule strength. I think this one is a rock fight and the Orange come up short.
Tennessee 19
Syracuse 16
#1 Texas [+2.5] at #3 Ohio State
Saturday, August 30th, 12:00 PM, Fox
Fox is pretty happy with this matchup.
Holy crap, one of the biggest regular season games in recent memory straight out of the gate in week 1, no less. Georgia vs. Texas was the most watched regular season game of 2024 with 13.19 million viewers, and I think this game can draw 15 million or more if football fans are locked in to start the year. I picked Texas to remain as the no. 1 seed this year so I suppose I have to pick them to beat the Buckeyes. I’ll be fascinated to see how the team and their fan base deal with a loss.
Texas 34
Ohio State 30
#8 Alabama [-13.5] at Florida State
Saturday, August 30th, 3:30 PM, ABC
Quite the game to open up with after dealing with a dreadful nightmare of a season in 2024 for Florida State. At least its at home! Does this line reflect the Noles improving quite a bit (they lost 6 games by 14+ in 2024) this year according to Vegas? Or perhaps Alabama not being quite the juggernaut anymore? Perhaps a little bit of both. I’m down with FSU being frisky enough.
Alabama 30
Florida State 21
#9 LSU [+4] at #4 Clemson
Saturday, August 30th, 7:30 PM, ABC
I found this on the internet.
Including the Notre Dame/Miami game coming next Sunday, this will be the 3rd Top 10 matchup of Week 1, we are so blessed. For Brian Kelly and LSU they are trying to kick their bad habit of losing their opening game of the season:
27-20 loss vs. USC (2024)
45-24 loss vs. FSU (2023)
24-23 loss vs. FSU (2022)
38-27 loss at UCLA (2021)
44-34 loss vs. Miss State (2020)
Credit where its due, at least LSU has the guts to schedule some tough teams to open their season. They are expecting a big leap from quarterback Garrett Nussmeier in his second season as starter. Clemson on the road is a tough ask for Brian Kelly, I do declare.
Clemson 37
LSU 31
Virginia Tech [+7.5] vs. #13 South Carolina (Atlanta, GA)
Sunday, August 31st, 3:30 PM, ESPN
The game that leads us into the Notre Dame next Sunday. Virginia Tech has been wandering in the wilderness for a while and just not that scary, while South Carolina comes into the season with tons of expectations (5th highest ranked SEC team) and hoping quarterback LaNorris Sellers is Him following a promising redshirt freshman campaign. I’m buying the Cock hype, and think this is a really bad game for Virginia Tech to open the season in Columbia.
South Carolina 34
Virginia Tech 14
I’m curious about your love (ok, maybe “like”) for Baylor this year. At least the 2nd time you’ve mentioned them. They basically had the same F+ ranking as Auburn last year. They beat 0 top 30 teams last year. Only 3 wins vs. top 60 teams. What makes you think they make the jump this year?
I don’t know who wins that Auburn -Baylor game, but I’m betting the loser’s coach is shown the door by end of season.
They had a nice finish to last year, pretty manageable schedule, lots of starters came back, and betting Sawyer Robertson (14th nationally in passer rating last year) takes another step as a playmaker.
0-2 start to the season!