I hope everyone had a happy and restful bye week. We’re heading into double digit weeks of college football with the home stretch coming and bringing us to the 2nd edition of the 12-team playoffs. A reminder that the first college football playoff rankings will be released after this upcoming week 10. The made-for-TV program comes out at 8 PM ET on Tuesday, November 4th.
2025 Betting Record
Against the Spread: 37-38
Straight Up: 48-27
I sniffed around an excellent weekend with picks (6-2 straight up) but came back to earth with a .500 week against the spread. My misses included:
- Ole Miss to win but not cover (they covered).
- Iowa State outright (they lost).
- Texas to win but not cover (they covered).
- Arizona State outright (they lost).
Week 10 Games to Watch
All times are Eastern. Rankings are from the AP Poll.
#9 Vanderbilt [+2.5] at #20 Texas
Saturday, November 1, 12:00 PM, ABC
This game had originally been slated for the SEC Network way back when but the powers that be couldn’t anticipate a top 10 Vanderbilt. So, up to the big leagues on ABC it goes. The ‘Dores were in a dog fight last week with Missouri and escaped. Can they keep it going? The fact that Arch Manning was concussed right before the end of Texas’ game last week and they are still favored (he’s questionable and realistically will probably be held out) says a lot about his performance in 2025. I don’t think the Horns can be a playoff contender (Georgia and A&M are still upcoming on their schedule) but I think they win this with the backup quarterback, plunging the Manning-era into doubt.
Texas 24
Vanderbilt 20
Navy [+6.5] at North Texas
Saturday, November 1, 12:00 PM, ESPN2
Navy is 7-0 and experiencing a revival in 2025, although as you can see they are not favored this weekend. If the Middies are going to finish with a great season they will have to earn it with Notre Dame, USF, Memphis, and of course Army remaining on their slate. Now, they travel to North Texas to play the best team no one is talking about. Mean Green redshirt freshman quarterback Drew Mestemaker is coming off an insane 608 passing yards against Charlotte last week. Load up the NIL offers for his future! Maybe the next quarterback at LSU?
North Texas 38
Navy 32
#10 Miami [-12.5] at SMU
Saturday, November 1, 12:00 PM, ESPN
Ah, a sleepy noon start for Miami traveling 1,300+ miles to the west feels like trouble for the Canes. Have we talked enough about the disappointment at SMU this year? They’ve been overshadowed in that department by the likes of Penn State, Clemson, South Carolina, and maybe a couple others. Still, the Ponies were 16th in the pre-season AP Poll and have already lost to Baylor, TCU, and an especially bad loss to Wake Forest. Now would be a good time to rise up and play up to higher expectations and give Miami a proper scare.
It’s been a tough year for SMU.
Miami 27
SMU 24
#5 Georgia [-7.5] vs. Florida (Jacksonville, FL)
Saturday, November 1, 3:30 PM, ABC
Are we thinking Florida is going to play fast and loose without their head coach now? I keep saying Georgia is vulnerable this year (“only” 12th in the latest SP+) and my ears perked up immediately at this close-ish spready for a rivalry game. Still, this struggling Gators team being led by an interim head coach, who was their wide receiver coach (no disrespect to wide receiver coaches), going up against Kirby Smart in a rivalry that hasn’t been very close (Georgia’s won the last 4 by an average margin of 21.5 points) in recent years makes me think this will be far too comfortable of a win for the Dawgs.
Georgia 35
Florida 17
Oklahoma [+3.5] at Tennessee
Saturday, November 1, 7:30 PM, ABC
Rocky Top should be…rocking for a night time matchup between the 3rd best 2-loss team according to SP+ (Oklahoma) and the 7th best according to SP+ (Tennessee) in a playoff elimination game. Well, very likely the loser is out of the race. There are still 16 teams in the power conferences either undefeated or with one loss. The Vols have already lost to Bama and Georgia and would need all sorts of help and chaos to stay alive. The Sooners have a bye after this and head to Alabama. It doesn’t get easier! I’ll stick with the home team in this game.
Tennessee 30
Oklahoma 28
#23 USC [-6.5] at Nebraska
Saturday, November 1, 7:30 PM, NBC
I suppose I didn’t expect Nebraska to be favored but I was surprised Vegas is willing to lay almost a touchdown down in favor of the USC “we travel terribly” Trojans. Then again, it does feel like the Cornhuskers haven’t won many primetime games in recent years. Except, that season opening win against Cincinnati is looking better and better these days. This is a tough call! Deep down, I definitely don’t trust USC as this big of a favorite when game time temperatures look to be in the low 40’s in Lincoln–but there’s just enough distrust of the Corn against a talented team.
Penn State on line 1, sir.
USC 28
Nebraska 27
#17 Cincinnati [+7.5] at #24 Utah
Saturday, November 1, 10:15 PM, ESPN
Utah might be a decent value pick to go on to win the Big 12 Championship Game if you’re so inclined. They’re done for good though if they lose this weekend with defeats to Texas Tech and BYU already on their resume. Utes quarterback Devon Dampier is questionable so that’s hanging over the game. Geez, can we trust Cincinnati (not that highly rated by the advanced stats) to go to Salt Lake City and win this game at night? I say nope.
Utah 44
Cincinnati 41
I don’t trust the teams at the top of the BIG 12. BYU has an SOR of 5, but SOS of 49. Their remaining SOS is 25, so I guess they may prove out if they remain undefeated. Either way, I’d be surprised to see the BIG 12 champion win their first game in the playoffs.
I want to see Texas Tech with a healthy starting QB against a good team. I think they might be legit, but it’s tough to tell. The ASU comeback and collapse was brutal, but it’s tough to win football games when your QB averages 4.5 yards per attempt.
The BYU Tech game next week could be fun. BYU running with a freshman QB also makes me think that if they win the conference, they probably don’t win their playoff game. But if BYU IS the conference champ, they probably have at most 1 loss, and they might get a fairly favorable draw. If they got matched up with GT or Vanderbilt, I don’t think that’s a surefire loss.