Notre Dame was nearly perfect in the 2021 home finale against Georgia Tech, scoring on every possession in the first half (with just one field goal) and shutting out the Yellow Jackets. The Irish continued to dominate inexperienced quarterbacks, and Jack Coan’s recent run of passing efficiency hit levels Ian Book rarely matched against P5 competition. Brian Kelly’s team is accelerating through the finish line of the season, and just may find themselves in the CFP again if the competitors around them fall on their final hurdles.

The theme of the season before November had been Notre Dame winning close but failing to separate, resulting in little garbage time. Even entering Senior Day the Irish had just 15 plays of garbage time all season. But against Georgia Tech, ND blew things open early, entering garbage time in the 2nd quarter with a 45-0 lead. An even 50% of plays were in garbage time and are excluded from the stats below.

The revived offense flashes peak form

The post-bye edition of Coan is the best-case scenario when he was added as a grad transfer becoming reality. The senior has been accurate, avoided mistakes, and steadily guided the offense while distributing the ball to a host of playmakers. His workload is far more manageable with the help of the resuscitated running game, and he’s clearly far more comfortable doing many of the same things that made him successful at Wisconsin – passes to running backs in the flat, the screen game, hitting tight ends down the seam, one-on-one shots to your best WR.

For his senior day encore, Coan averaged 13.4 yards per dropback against Georgia Tech despite a pair of early sacks. Against P5 teams in his career, Ian Book hit over 60% passing success rate only three times in his ND career. Coan has now hit that mark in back-t0-back games, with a real shot at hitting three in a row against a woeful Stanford defense next week. After the shaky end to Notre Dame’s first possession, Coan was excellent hanging in when his early reads weren’t available, including an early 4th down conversion to Braden Lenzy and the terrific dump-off to George Takacs for a near-touchdown.

Kevin Austin also had a terrific senior day, hauling in a pair of catches for 89 yards. Austin hasn’t shouldered a massive workload but has been pretty spectacular since the bye week, catching 21 of 25 targets over the last six games. Over that stretch, he’s averaging 16.4 yards per target, 19.6 yards per catch, and a 76% success rate when targeted. That’ll do.

One player who has taken on a ton of volume is Kyren Williams, who has averaged 22 touches per game post-bye (not counting punt returns). Those touches have gained 6.4 yards per play, a 45% success rate, and caused a billion broken tackles. The last two years Williams has been a delight to watch, and Notre Dame needs to start allowing some of these obvious NFL draft-pick juniors to participate in the senior day festivities.

There’s not much else to add to the dominance. The Irish offense averaged 6.33 points per possession before garbage time started in the 2nd quarter. Even in garbage time, Notre Dame racked up 6.8 yards per play. Georgia Tech is in a very bad place right now, but Notre Dame made the Yellow Jackets look like a scout team.

Marcus Freeman will ruin your baby quarterback

By now you’ve seen all the fun stats – the Irish defense outscoring their opponents in November, with zero touchdowns allowed over the past three games. Early this season Notre Dame flashed disruptive potential, but for whatever reason – personnel, youth in key spots, learning Marcus Freeman’s scheme – it left the defense too exposed to big plays. With time, player development, and some juicy matchups against inexperienced QBs the last three games have been the best of both worlds – dominant defense without explosive plays allowed.

Over these last three games against Navy, UVA, and Georgia Tech, opponents are averaging just 3.4 yards per dropback. Jordan Yates was running for his life on most dropbacks and couldn’t attack downfield – the Jackets averaged just 8 yards per successful pass compared to 21.5 for the Irish. Tech’s average 3rd down distance to gain was 10.2 yards – you’re reading that correctly, when they reached third downs they had more often moved backward than forward on the first two plays.

If Geoff Collins’s team had any chance (in hindsight, chance to cover), it would require a strong day on the ground led by Jahmyr Gibbs. But the Yellow Jackets could only muster 3.6 yards per carry and were stuffed on 25% of runs. Tech only ran the ball on 50% of early downs, a puzzling choice with their backup QB but possibly a panicked response to very quickly being down two scores (then three, four, etc.).

Do not bother with the playoff committee for two more weeks, but cheer for good things

With the Irish squarely in the playoff hunt, it’s tempting to start gaming out scenarios and tuning into the CFP’s lastest rankings and press tour. It feels insane that Notre Dame may be one of the four best or most deserving teams after nearly losing to Florida State and Toledo to open the season, but here we are. There are obstacles to be sure, but Brian Kelly has been sitting pretty for some time now with some of the highest odds to finish with only one loss or fewer, which has been a prerequisite for making the playoff every season so far. Don’t look now but the Irish are also up to #5 in FEI and the Massey composite rankings.

But the committee rationale change week to week, and Notre Dame still doesn’t control its own destiny. There will be strong opinions and pundits voicing certainty about what will happen if Alabama loses to UGA, or if Oklahoma State is a 1-loss Big 12 champion, but no one knows! The CFP will have the ammunition to decide between these teams however it wants, and history has shown that previous weeks ratings and explanations mean very little.

Meanwhile, if you want Notre Dame in the final four, a quick rooting guide:

  • Auburn pulling another miracle upset in the Iron Bowl probably eliminates Alabama, although a win over UGA in Atlanta could probably boost them back in. Despite the Dawgs’ dominance, the early lines have them favored by only four over the Tide.
  • Hope Nick Saban’s crew loses BIG in the SEC title game. A close win and the committee can justify sticking with Bama – they played the clear #1 team tight, and advanced stats will support them as a top-4 team. There are few things the committee loves more than sticking a bunch of mediocre SEC teams in the 15-25 range. But can the committee stomach a rematch of a blowout loss? Less likely.
  • Oklahoma over Oklahoma State helps the most, although either 1-loss team has the potential to jump Notre Dame. Still, the committee has preferred the Cowboys, and the Sooners’ chances of winning a rematch are probably lower than Okie State’s chances of losing to Baylor if they prevail in Bedlam.
  • Graham Mertz and Wisconsin beating Minnesota to secure the B1G West would be helpful, keeping the Irish’s best win as highly ranked as possible. For bonus points, if the Badgers wanted to knock off the East champ in Indianapolis (who are we kidding, it will be Ohio State) that’s the best-case scenario.
  • Other quick hits:
    • Cincinnati- lose at any point and the committee is putting Notre Dame ahead of the Bearcats, despite head-to-head
    • Purdue could win big in their rivalry matchup with Indiana, and the Boilers sneaking back into the rankings only helps
    • It probably won’t matter, but anything that weakens opponent top wins or strengthens Notre Dame’s – like Mizzou over borderline top 25 Arkansas – is incrementally helpful. Same with FSU over Florida, UNC over NC State, Texas Tech over Baylor, and LSU over Texas A&M.

Enjoy the games and some extra rooting interests, and tune in for the final rankings (actually, just check them online, the show itself is drawn out and probably annoying). Go Irish, Beat Stanford by a lot.