The combination of stormy weather plus an aggressive NC State defense created Notre Dame’s first significant adversity of 2023, but a a strong defensive performance and explosive plays from the offense allowed the Irish to finally pull away in the 4th quarter. The Wolfpack’s pressure forced Sam Hartman and the Irish offense into early punts and a second-half fumble, but Gerad Parker was able to find big plays consistently on a less efficient day for the offense. Meanwhile, Al Golden’s unit was impressive from start to finish, capitalizing on Brennan Armstrong’s questionable decision-making and forcing tons of turnover opportunities.

Only the final NC State and Notre Dame drives entered garbage time with the Irish ahead 45-17, so only 9% of plays were excluded from the main numbers below.

Stats from a few excellent sources – College Football Data, Game On Paper, and often referencing SP+ and FEI numbers. If you get lost, check out this handy advanced stats glossary here or reach out in the comments.

The Irish defense wreaks havoc in their first traditional test

It’s been hard to judge Notre Dame’s defense in the early going, and playing a less niche NC State spread offense (with P5 talent) figured to be a better barometer than the first two games of 2023. Now, this Wolfpack offense may not be very good by power conference standards – they are woefully lacking in skill position threats, and Brennan Armstrong continues to look like a questionable decision-maker being asked to shoulder too much responsibility. But importantly, Al Golden’s unit exposed all of those things en route to a game full of defensive disruption.

NC State was equally inefficient rushing and passing the ball, and life felt extremely difficult for the Wolfpack offense when they weren’t assisted by penalty flags (some earned, some questionable). Armstrong and the offense were consistently behind the chains, only averaging 2.8 yards per play on 1st downs and with an average 3rd down yards to gain of 7.9. It forced Armstrong to take chances, a few of which he converted but many that turned into dangerous plays. All of them had a high degree of difficulty and allowed Notre Dame to hunt for takeaway opportunities – NC State had a massive 30 passing downs out of 68 pre-garbage time plays.

Some of the disruption isn’t captured in the counting stats – Notre Dame’s pressure rate will look more impressive than the sack numbers (none before garbage time) or run stuff rate. But the impact of that havoc showed up in turnover opportunities, with ND forcing two fumbles and breaking up 11 passes, intercepting three. After accounting for the Irish coming up empty on 3 NC State fumbles, the Irish defense was actually unlucky statistically to have only three takeaways, as the advanced stats project closer to four.

Importantly, the defense also played strong situationally while at a field position disadvantage for much of the first half and game. The Wolfpack offense had four possessions start with field position at their own 40-yard line or better, including an instant red-zone possession off the Hartman sack and fumble lost. Those possessions led to ZERO points, with the Irish forcing early punts and the missed field goal at a critical point in the 3rd quarter. After finishing nearly dead last in 2022 at red zone defense, Notre Dame is T11 nationally in opponent TD% in the red zone (allowing 2 TDs in 8 opponent trips).

Notre Dame’s offensive efficiency takes a hit, but opens up explosive plays

A great offense can put defenses in a bind – either they play aggressively to force negative plays but become more susceptible to long gains, or they sit back and play a bend-but-don’t-break that yields high success rates but hopefully can be derailed with timely plays or opponent mistakes. It wasn’t surprising that NC State with aggressive DC Tony Gibson chose that first route against Notre Dame, and while it worked in spurts, eventually the Irish made the Wolfpack defense pay.

Overall it was an average day of offensive efficiency, which likely felt worse than the numbers show since 1) it was a bad start to the game getting the offense and run game going and 2) the ND offense set the bar so high with essentially perfect drive efficiency for the 1st string in the two games to start the season. The passing offense has a far rougher day but the rushing attack finished on a high note with 50% success rate (very strong against a defense of NC State’s caliber). The offense especially came back to earth on passing downs, where the Irish struggled to move the ball through the air as easily under pressure and also found themselves in multiple 3rd and very long situations for the first time this year.

Still, Notre Dame won both the efficiency battle and then dominated the explosive plays to pull away. Audric Estime’s near career-long rush from Tennessee State lasted all of one week, breaking the 80-yarder after the re-start on a beautifully designed play from Gerad Parker. The passing attack found chunk plays of their own with some new contributors stepping up – most notably Holden Staes (5 targets / 4 successful / 23 yards per target). But Chris Tyree and Tobias Merriweather each chipped in their own long catch and run plays, making up for a quiet day from Jayden Thomas (0 catches on 4 targets). The Irish offense continues to spread the ball around, with ten players targeted on the 24 passing attempts.

I’ve seen some fretting about the reliance on explosive plays from the offense to fuel this win, and I’m not sure it really checks out. As long as the Irish offense is forcing this trade-off – where defenses can either limit the explosiveness or efficiency but not both – Notre Dame is in good shape. The weakness is only an issue when Gerad Parker and Sam Hartman encounter a defense that has the personnel and scheme to do both. Notre Dame’s efficiency was still healthy, and the offense averaged 3 points per drive, a rate of production that’s top-15 nationally last year against a solid defense.

This will require a talented DL that can limit the ND run game without a ton of extra help, allowing the defense to remain relatively unexposed on the back end against the Irish skill position players. Is that team on the schedule, or are the Irish good enough when Hartman brings his A-game to make that task extremely difficult or impossible? Ohio State poses the best challenge, and we won’t know for another two weeks.